MGoFish: Best Guess Recruiting Class

Submitted by JonnyHintz on
Sorry for the format, I’m posting this from my phone. It’s only June 1st, so a lot can change with the names on this list. But MGoFish posted his post-spring best guess recruiting class list last night. http://mgofish.com/2019-best-guess-michigan-football-recruiting-class-l… With players ranked as they currently are, this class would give Michigan a score of 262.43. Michigan currently has the #5 class in the country with 193.72. But if they were to finish with this score, it would’ve given them the 13th best class in 2018 and the 9th best class in 2017. Now obviously things will change. Players will continue to jump up in the rankings and players will fall in the rankings. Names on this list will disappear and new names will appear as the summer camp circuit starts up and interest comes and goes. But this gives us a general idea on where we stand with some of our top targets and a rough idea where our class is looking to rank nationally. As it stands now, and with a few commits looking like they’re candidates for a rankings bump, this has the makings of a top 10 class, and if the cards fall right it could push for a top 5 class.
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jonnyknox

June 1st, 2018 at 8:20 AM ^

Garrett does an excellent job of getting inside information on recruiting.  While they are guesses, he had Michael Barrrett pegged several months before his committment.  

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JonnyHintz

June 1st, 2018 at 8:27 AM ^

I thoroughly enjoy his best guess lists, and I check his scholarship breakdown from time to time as well. Lists like these are fun as long as the people viewing/discussing them can remain level headed and view them with a grain of salt. It’s June 1st. This list isn’t going to be exactly correct. The rankings of these players will all change. It’s a best guess list 8 months from signing day. So I’m just hoping people see this as a fun discussion piece and some much needed football information and not as some outlet to complain and obsess over rankings.

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JonnyHintz

June 1st, 2018 at 8:57 AM ^

He’s pretty accurate actually. He predicted Michael Barrett over a month in advance, Michigan fans had no idea who he was because he hadn’t been mentioned at all before. You’re also way off on his predictions being after commits. Jack Stewart was the day of. Many of his picks are months in advance. He projected Nolan’s Rumler over a year in advance.

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LeCheezus

June 1st, 2018 at 9:09 AM ^

Maybe the day system on 247 is broken then as all correct picks are all showing +0 except for Sam Johnson.

So currently for 2019 recruits he is 9/14.

Sam Webb had a recruiting roundup segment about Michael Barrett several months before he was on commit watch, so I wouldn't say nobody knew who he was.

I mean it's a good site if you want a summary of what everyone else has already posted.  Interesting that it used to be on the Michigan Blogs on the sidebar but no longer is.

 

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JonnyHintz

June 1st, 2018 at 9:34 AM ^

It has the date he predicted listed on his page, and if you click on the recruit it lists their commit date. Naturally, most predictions are going to be within a week or two of their commitment. You’re talking about 16 and 17 year old kids. They’re not exactly the easiest age group to predict. A lot of these kids keep their recruitments close to the vest and don’t give a lot of indication where they’ll be going. Some kids commit to a school nobody expected out of the blue. Carpenter for example, everyone had him going to Clemson, nobody knew when he would commit, and nobody saw any indication he would pick Michigan. But it happens. Some kids are visiting that particular weekend and are expected to get an offer and they end up jumping on it. He’s not always going to be right. Nobody is. But he has some good insight and some good information. And right now, he has the only list of it’s kind for us as fans to look at and get an idea of what our class could potentially look like. If Sam Webb had a list like this, I would be posting that as well. But he doesn’t and this is really all we have to go on right now. We could do a lot worse than someone like Fish.

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LeCheezus

June 1st, 2018 at 9:50 AM ^

Yeah I was on mobile and the little icons must not show the + "date" properly.  If you like his (your?) site a lot, that's great.  I'm saying it has no more inside information than anyone with a 247 subscription has, and GF is rarely first with a CB based on my periodical monitoring of 247.

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JonnyHintz

June 1st, 2018 at 9:57 AM ^

Why do people keep saying I’m Fish? Because I like reading the best guess? He gives insight on where Michigan stands with him and links scouting reports and expert articles. I’m one of the only people on here that uses my actual name and my picture is my jersey with my name on it... yet liking the content of a website makes me the author?

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bronxblue

June 1st, 2018 at 9:14 AM ^

He seems to do pretty well with Michigan recruits, given the large positive numbers next to them. Also, if you look at his 2018 numbers, he's right on average about 187 days before the announcement; the average for that site is 144. That's about a month and a half, on average, being right before the average prognosticator. By comparison, Wiltfong is right on 34 days before on average. Obviously different denominator in terms of number of picks, but I don't think Fishman is somehow gaming the system any more than everyone else.

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FatGuyTouchdown

June 1st, 2018 at 8:57 AM ^

Garrett Fishaw, but he tends to be overly optimistic. That being said, he does occasionally get the scoops. He was the first to predict Kareem Walker going to Michigan, he was on top of Michael Barrett. For what it's worth, Harbaugh follows him on Twitter, so he clearly isn't just a random fanboy. He does it as his passion and works another job, so I don't blame him for not having all the insider information. His BGRC is a good read, but it usually turns into "if everything breaks right this is who Michigan will get" instead of actual predicitons. 

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JonnyHintz

June 1st, 2018 at 9:04 AM ^

Like I said though. It’s June. The summer camp circuit is just about to start. Rankings will go up and down, new offers will go out, interest will come and go. There are 8 months to go until February’s signing day. A lot can and will change. This isn’t meant to be a final prediction on who is going to be in the final class. It is what it says it is, a best guess 8 months out from it being finalized. Unless you’re psychic, nobody is going to have any better idea that what Fish put out there on what the final class will look like. As for him being optimistic, that’s why he has his scale of Michigan’s current chances with the player. He’s very up front on where Michigan stands with the kid •Excellent – Top Team/Favorite to Land •Very Good – Top 2-3/Realistic Possibility •Good – Top 5/Sticking Around •Fair – Puncher’s Chance/Questionable Take •Poor – Hardly Mentioned/Not Happening As it stands, this is really all we have out there to go on. Fish is pretty damn good at what he does, but it is June. That’s why I said people need to take it with a grain of salt.

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JonnyHintz

June 1st, 2018 at 9:45 AM ^

And ultimately most recruits haven’t taken visits yet. Once you get a kid to Ann Arbor and you show him the city, the school, the facilities, anything can happen. Especially if the football team goes out there and has a good year. It may be Cine, it may be someone nowhere on this list. But I agree, this list seems fairly realistic. It has Michigan getting a few more under the radar guys, it has them getting a few guys that they sit well with. It has them winning a recruiting battle or two. While I don’t think this list will be entirely accurate, I think it gives a good realistic view on what kind of class we are looking at. As I said, rankings will change and I expect McNamara, Stewart, and Barnhart will see rating increases soon, this class has the makings of a top 10 class. With a distant chance at pushing top 5 if things fall perfectly.

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M-Dog

June 1st, 2018 at 9:14 AM ^

Nice uni. 

I like the blue pants with the white shirt for the away uni. 

We should do that for some away games / bowl games. 

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maize-blue

June 1st, 2018 at 9:26 AM ^

UM is in on quite a few really good prospects. If they can get a couple big wins this season, they'll end up with a great class.

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JonnyHintz

June 1st, 2018 at 9:38 AM ^

Mazi Smith has supposedly been leaning Michigan for quite some time. We currently hold 93% of the crystal balls. Although it looks like Penn State picked up a recent pick. It’s VIP locked so I can’t see who picked PSU but it appears (based on prediction dates) it may have been Sam Webb.

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Don

June 1st, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^

I've been listening to Sam long enough to have a pretty good feel for what he's trying to convey with his words and intonation, and it came through pretty clear he's quite sure—based on his current knowledge—that Smith will commit to Michigan.

Which is funny given that there is an MGoBlogger whose handle I can't recall who was assuring us a couple of months ago that Smith didn't even have Michigan in his top three and this inside info was based on the commenter's alleged friendship with Smith's wrestling coach.

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ak47

June 1st, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^

This recruiting class will be entirely dependent on this season. Get a couple big wins and we can get a top 10 class, have a year like last year and finish an empty 8-5 and this class will end up closer to 20th than top 10.

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June 1st, 2018 at 9:51 AM ^

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June 1st, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^

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