Supposedly Notre Dame is on the clock
Article is behind paywall. Basically it says that Notre Dame is on a similar time frame as Nebraska and Missouri to let the Big ten know whether it wants to join. If they join, Big Ten expansion stops at 12 teams.
Finally, thank god, I'm sick of Jack Swarbrick in the news all the time. Make him make a decision.
Hope they decide not to join and get left out in the cold. We'll keep our rivalry going just so we can continue to kick in those golden domes.
I hate them as much as you, I promise. But hate them or not, ND joining the Big Ten makes Michigan and the Big Ten a lot better.
But, I love the Big Ten and am always pulling for Big Ten teams to do well in non-conference situations. I don't want to have to ever root for ND, so I hope the pass and I don't have to. I know this is a selfish reason, but I've had a bad day. Logging off and drinking a beer.
This might finally be enough to get ND to join. Personally, I think ND to the Big Ten is best case scenario.
All the expansion hypotheticals are fun, but ND I think is invite #1. If they decline, then go after Texas.
Adding Notre Dame is better than any scenario involving Rutgers joining the conference
Oh wait....did you say Rutgers? Run along Rutgers. You're kind ain't welcome here!
I've been saying it all along, but I still think that's what happens in the end. Maybe a few years down the road we can poach Texas and the rest.
What leverage does the Big Ten have to put ND on the clock? In the case of Nebraska and Missouri, the Big 12 can kick them out. With ND, they are not a member. I guess I don't see what power the Big Ten has in this situation. Hypothetical expansions and superconferences may come to fruition someday but I can't imagine Swarbrick being forced into a conference based on hypotheticals. I would imagine he would need to say superconferences coming to light before he would make a hard decision (especially considering ND's past-precedence).
The Big Ten puts ND on the clock by saying "if you don't join us, these other guys will, and when the landscape of NCAA football changes you might be left out in the cold."
ND can take that gamble, but it's certainly a risk. If being in a conference ends up being a big deal to get into a playoff (there will always be an at-large, but it might be tough to get into), if NBC decides not to renew their TV contract (or not pay them as much), and/or if ND's major opponents stop scheduling them because of their new conference alignments (fewer OOC games), ND will wish they had joined.
was that this is ND's last chance to join the Big Ten. ND is the only school that the Big Ten is willing to cap its membership at 12 for. Otherwise, the Big Ten becomes the "Super Sixteen" (or something like that), and Notre Dame is left out. Granted ND could later join another conference. But none of the other conferences are as geographically and academically appealing as the Big Ten is.
Yes, if ND passes on the Big Ten and later joins a conference, it will almost certainly be a worse situation than joining the Big Ten academically, financially, geographically, and historically.
If ND has to join a conference the Big Ten is definitely ND's #1 on the list of possibilities
And the list starts and ends with #1
not really
You can't say with a straight face the the Big East is an option. Nor is the SEC/ACC. Just admit it dude. It's ok, you went to Michigan anyway.
Notre Dame's not some special butterfly. Sorry.
I mentioned to a guy at work today that I got the feeling the Big10 would put ND on a shorter clock so if ND chooses not to, we would have time to negotiate a contract and bring Missouri in. I was also thinking that they might bring Missouri and Nebraska in and leave the door open for ND again. If ND still doesn't join, then we bring someone else like Pitt to get us to 14 for that season, then get 2 more the following season.
I'm starting to think this will be a 2-3 step process in hopes of getting ND to break.
Dude at NYT tweeted:
Rittenberg had it on his feed.
This is what the Michigan Rivals site is saying,
http://michigan.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1091903
"The Big Ten is apparently telling Notre Dame if the Irish turn down the invitation, the Big Ten could expand by five schools to go to 16. The fear on Notre Dame's part, and the reason officials are considering the bid carefully, is because officials fear four, 16-team conferences could emerge, and Notre Dame could be left out, sources said."
THe leverage the B10 has on ND, might be that Neb and MZ are on the "clock" with the B12 (if all true).
"join the B10 ND, or we'll grab NEB, MIZZ, and (SYR or Pitt or Maryland) and the B12 packs up and goes west and you and NBC can sit with the Dodo Bird and wait for Gadot to invite you to the next dance."
I think its pitiful the Big 11 keeps courting them. I agree it makes perfect sense that they join but that should have happened a long time ago. I say cut bait and let them fend for themselves . Sorry they disguist me and last years victory was sweeter than ever. Go Blue
respects ND as an institution, which is why it keeps offering membership. However, this should be a "last chance" thing.
been fending for themselves for quite a while btw
ND has until XX day to sign up or:
- Big Ten extends formal invites to Neb & Mizzou first. This starts the dominos.
- The "Texas 6" then join with Neb & Mizzou to legally dissolve the Big 12 (since they'll have 8 voting members)
- Texas 6 go to Pac 10. Pac 10 done.
- Kansas, KSt, IA St (maybe) and Colorado join Mtn West giving the MW a legitimacy to the BCS bid that was the Big 12's.
- Big Ten then invites Pitt from Big East. Big Ten now at 14.
- SEC realizes that if they dont do something fast, the potential is there for the other mega conferences to basically write a ticket to the BCS national championship for their undefeated teams, even if they have one. SEC picks off Clemson, FlaSt from ACC.
- ACC now needs to replace two members and goes after UConn and Syracuse, now owning the Atlantic media market from Boston to Miami and establishing itself as the pre-eminent basketball conference in the nation.
- Notre Dame now has a choice... (A) be shut out of the BCS and evolutionary playoff system and stay independent, (B) become a flagship Big East school keeping the rest of the Big East but probably having to invite Memphis or convincing Army and Navy to join up with them for historical rivalry sake, OR (C) join the Big Ten and take Rutgers with them as #15 & 16.
Even then, the Big Ten could say, "hey ND, we tried, you didn't want, we're happy with 14 teams, so go fuck yourself as a lightweight football power. And tell West Virginia we said hello. MUUUAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA"
The rest of the Big East scatters like Swayze and Sheen in Red Dawn to Conf USA, the ACC (if they'll have them) or the MAC.
We are now left with:
First Tier:
Mega Big Ten
Mega Pac 10
Mega ACC
Mega SEC
Mountain West (now with KU, KSt, IASt, Col, Boise)
Second Tier:
Conf USA
MAC
WAC
Sun Belt
Are you Jim Delaney?
Seriously, though, your speculation seems quite logical.
I'm actually Jim Delaney's mirror universe doppleganger. I have a goatee and everything...
in all seriousness, I was listening to Paul Finebaum's radio show on Sirius today coming home, and he's basically telling the SEC yokels that if this starts to go down, it doesn't matter that the SEC won the last 4 nat'l championships, the SEC is going to be left in the revenue dust and they better make a serious play to lock up Florida, UF/FSU bad blood be damned. Interestingly though, he thinks that the SEC needs to leave Clemson alone as it doesn't add anything to the conference they already have. His point is that the SEC better go big or go home as the Mega Big Ten and Mega Pac 10 take all the extra at-large BCS slots if they're available.
but I did read that if the SEC were to expand, that their top 2 schools they would go after are Virginia Tech and Florida St. I would have to think that Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Miami would all have to be in the mix as well though.
the rest is questionable... "Real" southerners in the don't want Ga Tech b/c they think they're not redneck-y enough. Va tech is probable, but there's a real strong attraction for Va Tech to stay in the ACC with UVa (may not be reciprocal per Maize n Blue Wahoo). I would say the #2 choice for the SEC would be Miami to lockdown the state of Florida.
I think VaTech is tied to UVa, because UVa was tied to VaTech by Va legislature, when voting for admittance to ACC was done a decade ago. Not sure tho.
If their goal is to lockdown Florida, do they try to get USF from the Big East?
Lemme tell ya, most UVA fans are PISSED that VT is in the ACC. Some are pissed at Casteen (former prez) and some at the legislature, but nobody thinks it's been a good thing for UVA at all. As far as football goes, they're right.
I'll throw a monkey wrench into your scenario here: the SEC probably won't take any ACC teams. The TV deals aren't that far apart in revenue any more, so the ACC teams can demand a full share. That doesn't make sense for the SEC, which can't expand its TV revenue like the Big Ten can. FSU might go to the SEC (and I really wouldn't miss 'em much) but more likely, if your nuclear doomsday happens, the SEC picks off WVU and Louisville by offering them a take-it-or-leave it deal for like a third of a share, the alternative being left out in the cold forever like Notre Dame.
just wanted you to chime in for sure...
This shit is getting way too Machiavellian for me. It's a like a friggin season of Lost or Battlesta Galactica.
thought that all of the talk about teams moving in and out of conferences would blow, but the way you've described it here doesn't seem all that terrible. This way, there would be conference championships for the "Mega" conferences as you call them and that would take some of the pain of the BCS away.
plus for all the lonely domer fans out there - at least your team is relevant on the national picture again, albeit not for the performance of the team on the field. but still.
takes one to know one I guess
I have to admit, the past two years have caused me to almost want to take back every ND joke and slap myself for every moment of joy I have experienced watching ND's struggles in the post-Holtz era. No one should have to live through this hell. Well, maybe OSU.
even if ND joins the Big Ten and the Big Ten stops at 12.
I could be wrong but I think the new Pac-10 commish wants to get to at least 12 teams so they can have a conference championship game. I live in Denver and a few months ago the rumor was Colorado and Utah to the Pac-10 so they'd have 12 schools. As the rumors started flying and talk of the Big 10 growing to 14 or 16 teams appeared the Pac-10 started looking at having more then 12 members.
So even if ND joins the Big 10 I think the Pac-10 still looks at getting two new teams. However, I doubt those teams would be 'major' domino's - more likely back to the old rumor a couple of months like Colorado and Utah. I doubt the Big 12 and Mountain West would have problems replacing those schools but there would still be a decent amount of restructing going on. Boise St to replace Utah and TCU to replace Colorado. Then the mountain west probably needs to raid the WAC again.
Should this happen, the question then becomes what of the Big East? The other 5 BCS conferences all have championship games.
So I think domino's fall no matter what happens, it's just a matter of what size the domino's are going to be.
There is likely to be at least a small change in conference alignments regardless. As far as the Big East....I don't know. If the Big Ten doesn't try to take schools from them, the ACC or SEC might.
If the Big ten stays at 12 with an added Notre Dame, the Pac 10 may just choose to pick up the easy two they've been targeting all along, Utah & Colorado, which fit the academic profile and culture of the conference much better than Texas Tech or Ok St. the Big 12 then grabs one to replace Colorado and the Mtn West raids the WAC as you say (Boise anyone?)... crisis averted, status quo nominally maintained, but the undercurrents of civil war stay act active as Big 12 members plot how to get Texas to revenue share.
Governed by Game Theory, this seems the most probable in this real life Prisoner's Dilemma.
ND controls the next move in conference expansion. If they say no, we're on our way to superconferences. If they say yes, there are no superconferences for at least a couple more years, and possibly much longer.
If superconferences happen, will we see a conference or two get 2 BCS bids? Or will it not matter because the BCS will be more likely to get dissolved and we'll have a playoff?
but if at least we get a playoff system out of expansion, then it might be worth it.
I'd imagine we'd get 4 superconferences with autobids to a 4 team playoff scenario. Howeva, I can already hear the whining from the under-conferences about equality. I wonder if there's a way to have a provision - top 2 teams get "byes" the "first round", and have the other 2 superconferences have the right to host a home game to determine the final four.
probably be 4 bids go to Pac10,Big10,SEC,MWC. Then 4 at larges so you can include some of the smaller guys if they go undefeated.
For the signature.
Allow us, in this expansion fever dream, to presume one of two things contingent upon Notre Dame becoming the 12th and only new member of the Big Ten.
If Michigan and Notre Dame are in the same division, do you still want Michigan and Notre Dame to play in early September (even the third week, a la Florida and Tennessee?)
If Michigan and Notre Dame are not in the same division, do you still want them to play in early September for their conference game?
I know, ENTIRELY HYPOTHETICAL!!!!