Let's Start Again: Point Guard
an irregular series about next year's basketball team
[Marc-Gregor Campredon]
ROSTER
Zavier Simpson (Jr): Defensive maestro was head of the spear for #3 defense in the country. 105 ORTG isn't bad considering FT/3P issues, but 56% from two feels like a ceiling for a guy his size.
Eli Brooks (So): Started 12 games early in the year before receding. First season not real promising: 15% usage, A:TO ratio of 1:1, 41/25 shooting.
David DeJulius (Fr): Smallish sniper has mad Steph-alike game. Badly underrated by scouting services. Probably, anyway.
I HAVE SOME QUESTIONS
Can Simpson learn to shoot some?
[Campredon]
Simpson's tour of destruction over the last third of the season culminated in a hamblasting of Naismith winner Jalen Brunson (9 points on 13 shot attempts, 2 A, 2 TO, 80 ORTG). He is a plus player and will be a starter for the rest of his career unless something crazy happens. That's good—see the TO-riddled bodies he left strewn in his wake—and bad—imagine a free throw.
Michigan's offensive ceiling is capped unless Simpson can ratchet up his shooting from the line and from three. There is precedent for this sort of thing under John Beilein. Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman hit 29% of his 41 threes as a freshman; the next year he hit 36% and stuck there for the duration of his career. However, the quantity of those shots kept increasing. MAAR went from 41 to 83 to 111 to 191 threes over the course of his career.
Simpson's already taken step one by going from a nonexistent three point shooter to an extant one, but the trend here isn't super encouraging. Simpson started the year hitting nearly half his shots; he finished it at 29%. His well-documented free throw struggles imply that his true shooting talent is real bad. The glimmer of hope here is that Simpson's new form at the end of the year saw him finish 24/42—57%—after starting 23/49—47%. That's pretty thin.
Does Eli Brooks take a sophomore Beilein point guard leap?
[JD Scott]
Few things are as consistent as a second-year Beilein point guard taking a quantum leap forward. Darius Morris, Trey Burke, and Zavier Simpson all improved radically as sophomores; the only reason Derrick Walton did not is that foot injury that first hampered him and then knocked him out midseason.
All those guys had a clear path to playing time, though. Brooks does not. He got only about 8 minutes a game last year, with the majority of those early in the season when the PG spot was still unsettled. Brooks could emerge into a solid rotation option… or flounder and get passed.
Jay Wright did confirm, apropos of nothing, that Villanova was after him hard and thought he was in the boat. So he's got that going for him. But if it doesn't happen now it's late early, because of the next guy.
How well, and how quickly, does David DeJulius translate?
Before Zavier Simpson's tour of destruction kicked off, most of the mutterings about Michigan's future at point guard were about DeJulius. This was because of Simpson's clear limitations and the crazy string of single-game highlight videos that DeJulius was pumping out:
DeJulius is a different kind of cat than Simpson. He evidently took the vast majority of his threes off the bounce as a senior, and while nobody covering high school basketball ever gives you a denominator, he is at least a large upgrade on Simpson from the free throw line.
I'm not saying he's Trey Burke, but… uh, the pattern here is pretty similar. Burke got dumped in the three star bin because of AAU struggles on a poor team and then torched Ohio as a senior. Nobody noticed and his ranking diverged from his talent. DDJ shot poorly for a version of The Family that was pretty short on talent before torching the state of Michigan. Nobody with a ranking wand has noticed. The main difference thus far is that Michigan voters are willing to overlook DDJ's head to head torching of Foster Loyer while Ohio takes its Mr. Basketball award seriously.
DeJulius isn't going to push Simpson out of a starting spot unless he actually is Trey Burke. It still seems likely that he's got a role to play. Maybe that's ten minutes, maybe that's 20.
OUTLOOK
Michigan's worst case scenario here is a static version of Simpson playing 35 minutes a game because his backups can't hack it. That's still pretty good—obligatory mention of Michigan's ranking on Torvik after he emerged as the starter—but if Wagner ends up entering the draft Michigan faces the prospect of starting three tenuous shooters in Simpson, Matthews, and Teske. That could make Michigan's offense tough to watch.
Excellent Scenario 1 is that Simpson inches up his shooting numbers to 60% from the line and 35% from three. Those are relatively modest gains that would make hack-an-X unprofitable and punish switching defenses more effectively.
Excellent Scenario 2 is that one of Brooks or DDJ is able to dent Simpson's minutes by being enough of an offensive upgrade to sustain the defensive downgrade. That would give Michigan options if they're down and need some offense or the opposition point guard isn't much of a threat or X is just having an off game. A Simpson that stays static but only has to play 20-25 minutes because Michigan has a second quality player would be fine.
Your author's guess is that Scenario 2 is the likely outcome, with DeJulius immediately demanding minutes.
Offense was bad not because of simpson but because we were atrocious at hitting wide open threes...most not taken by Simpson.
Good night and if dejulius can be an effective shooter from the jump, that pick n roll game is filthy with a senior Mo Wagner
We're a basketball school now, so this series is in tune with that. Next week, we might become a hockey school. We wont ever be a football school again - until we beat OSU and MSU.
what are the chances DDJ gets 3-5 minutes per game at the 2?
Michigan might have another freshman filling those minutes.
right, his main competition would be nunez who is about 5 inches taller. but right now there's no obvious backup to poole at the 2 and against teams without great size, playing DDJ alongside X would give the offense more flow.
considering he spent a year in prep school.
if there's a bit more zone (like a box and one) next year, assuming Teske is the starting 5, which might allow for more weaker defenders on the floor at any given moment
I'd say his game is more Lowry-esque than Steph-alike. He's thicc.
Agree completely about finding a guy who can get high-efficiency perimeter looks off the bounce. I'm confidant about Poole in that role -- feel like he has the necessary ingredients in a decent handle, good shot mechanics with plenty of elevation, and lots of confidence/offensive aggression. But yeah, I could definitely see DeJulius grow into that role as well, but with more of a Kyle Lowry/Chauncey/Jalen Brunson feel, where he uses his strength to bulldog opposing guards, get himself into positions of better leverage.
Couldn't Brooks be a potential to be asked to transfer if Moe stays? Seems like it would have to be Brooks, Ibi, or Davis. IMO Davis would not willingly transfer - he's a UM lifer, which just leaves Brooks and Ibi. Both have some good upside but we can only be at 13 scholarships when next season starts.
Who in their right mind would draft Matthews?
One of my qualms with Brooks is that he's, for lack of a better word, soft. Physically, not mentally. He doesn't mx it up with the big boys, he's not physical, he tries to avoid contact, etc. If you're a point guard for John Beilein, you've got to be able to penetrate, finish at the rim, and be a physical defender. Burke and Walton have been able to do those things, and Simpson is getting there. I don't know if Brooks can be that guy. Even going back to high school, Brooks was a finesse player.
But maybe an off-season and some time in the weight room can change his physical form.
I read the story from Brendan Quinn (one of the free ones available during the tourney) about how Brooks became the starter over Z. It was a coaching decision based on Z's poor play, in the hopes that Simpson would take the benching sorely and improve his game. He did exactly that. This wasn't conjecture on the author's part - it was told by the coaches themselves, including Beilein.
BTW, Brendan Quinn is a damn good writer.
Can we be optimistic about the fact that Z started the year shooting close to 50% and then regressed to 29%? For example, is there any evidence that he spent last offseason working on his form and that helped him start the year hot, but then his "new form" started to break-down as the season progressed? I haven't watched closely enough to see if his form changed throughout the year (it sure seemed wonky all season, but the degree of wonkiness may have changed).
This may be similar to a QB who works on his footwork during the offseason only to regress when he starts to get hit during live action (that sounds oddly familiar).
He was also a sub-50% free throw shooter during the early season, and free throw shooting and 3-point shooting are strongly correlated. Considering we're talking about someone who only shot 84 threes all season, it's more likely that the early hot start was an unsustainable fluke, much like a coin landing on tails 6 times in a row.
I don't see Z losing any of his minutes. Dejulius may take some of his time but as we all know, unless they are incredible, no freshman PG can work Beilein's system very well. There is an exception to every rule but my guess is Dejulius passes Brooks in backing up Z and then starts next year if Z leaves. My guess is Brooks transfers or settles in to a back-up, back-up.
He's not going to be an NBA prospect, and he's not going to get bumped out of the rotation.
I tend to agree that Brooks will be down to third at PG after this year, and might look elsewhere, unless he can find minutes at the 2.
While it would be ideal if Simpson's shot improved (it will), if he can continue to develop his decision making when he decides to drive the lane, that would have a much bigger (positive) impact on the overall offense.
He has shown the ability to finish with contact fairly well. What was not as great was when he drove and his lane to the hoop was cut off. That typically ended with him dribbiling around in circles trying to figure out what to do (aside from the Teske dunk against Purdue).
If he can improve his dish off the drive game, then he is equal if not already better than Darius Morris.
Here are DDJ stats for his senior year:
27 ppg 8 reb 8 assists. FG 48% 3pt 42% and FT 78%
Note percentages which Z will never match cause he just cannot shoot the basketball. I like Z but he has no jump shot and is just horrible from the free throw line. Statistical correlation between FT% and 3% is firm and has been demonstrated. If you cant shoot FT with consistency, you will NEVER be a good 3s shooter.
DDJ can cross over both ways and go straight into an elevated jump shot for a 3. Watch his highlights. We don't have any pointguards who can do it. Brooks and Simpson are flat footed 3 shooters. Didn't Villanova and that dang red head show us that jump shoot 3's can overcome any defense?
Poole at the 2 and DDJ at 1, once he gets the system down. And look out for Ignas, he is going to be the bomb.
That will give us 3 great outside threats.
Let's see how Google feels about it. This from his Senior year Ohio Mr. Basketball title:
"Simpson averaged 27.2 points, 6.1 assists and 3.8 steals per game..."
Read his 'Hello' post and you'll see blurbs about how he shot 27 for 29 (93%) from the free throw line at the Peach Jam. Or how he shot 47.6% from three at the NBPA Top 100 Camp.
Sample size, sure. Only season percentages I found on (X)avier were from his Junior year in H.S.:
46.2% FG, 35.4% 3FG, 78.8% FT -- Other than the 3-ball, that's really not markedly worse than DDJ's high school shooting. Given Zavier's defensive prowess, we'd take those percentages all day long out of Simpson next year and DeJulius/Brooks would be stapled to the bench. Unfortunately, that's not how it works.
I'm not saying DeJulius won't be better than Simpson offensively, because I think everyone here is comfortable saying he will. I'm saying you can take those high school stats and, uh... yeah, do something with them, because they don't mean squat when DeJulius steps foot on a college campus.
I love Z. He took his game to new, unexpected levels by playing awesome on-ball defense and being a decent offensive point guard. He should start next year until someone can sit him down--very unlikely.
But the problem with the offensive statistics you quote from HS is that they're absolutely meaningless now. We've seen how he shoots. He shoots below 33% on stationnary, set-shot, wide-open, 3 point shoots. Worse on the FT line. He has inconsistent form on both. Some of this may be from exhaustion, but some of it is him not being a good shooter at the moment.
Can he overcome it this summer> I'll be rooting for him to do so. He'll certainly work his you-know-what-off, but projecting next year based on HS statistics is not justifiable.
It's more likely that Matthews becomes a little more consistent on 3 pts and at the FT line. I't's much more likely that Poole takes a big leap. Who knows about Brooks? Remmeber, he was a freshmen, and a decent backup would help Z too. Without Wagner, they'll need more offensive threats.
I think Nova showed us that a historically great performance (record 31 off the bench) vs a historically bad performance (2nd worst 3pt shooting % in a game in last 5 years for Beilein) means a win for the former. It's not like Donte did that every game.
Great kid but I think his game has serious holes and a low ceiling.
Alot of you just think he's going to lock himself in the gym and become a better shooter?
Why didn't he do that the last 2 years?
The sooner that DeJulius is running the show, the better, especially if Wagner leaves.
DeJulius is a pure scorer.
Not sure how his D is, but he can ramp that up.
Easier to teach a kid D than how to shoot.
DeJulius, will take over the starting spot at some point next year. He will force defenses to guard him at the 3 point line, something simpson does not demand. Plus in late games I see him taking over the roll ealier in close games. Simpon either needs to learn how to shoot or become a bench role defenseive player.
DeJulius is the real deal IMO.
Damn. Brian's bolded alter-ego made it's own account.
I cut and pasted DDJ name, it was in bold.
Lots to respond to here:
- Highly unlikely that Z gets above 35% or develops a pull-up shot, but reasonable to say he could get into the 30-35% and hit those wide open shots he's going to get like he did early in the year.
- I think it will help Z in all phases of his game to play closer to 27-30 minutes. He expends so much energy on D and the offense relies so much on the PG that it is hard to do both. So I think there's some PT available.
- Beilein always likes to have his SG initiate offense and help break the press. Rahk actually did a lot of that this year. Who besides Poole can play SG minutes next year? Watson is more of a 3-and-D wing. So even if our dreams come true and Poole makes a huge leap, we need minutes backing him up. Likewise, Poole can back-up Mathews at the 3 as well. So I think DDJ, Brooks, and Nunez are going to battle for those 20-25 minutes in the rotation.
- Brooks didn't show me much this year that gets me excited about his ceiling, but I think he can be a reliable role player. Unlike Z, however, I think Brooks can become a reliable outside shooter and hit ~38% of his 3s.
- DDJ looks like a stud and I think they could play him in a freshman-Walton role at times.
- Nunez will likely be a good shooter and that's what the team needs, but I don't know the he brings enough other traits to the table to break through as a freshman.
but I agree with you that pulling back in the minutes played could be a good thing for him given that he is expected both to run the offense and to get in the shirt of the other team's PG.
I am also intrigued by the notion that DDJ or Brooks could play some at the 2 depending on matchups. I can't see Poole being ready to consistently give us 30-35 minutes per night there.
I agree with Brian and you (I think) that even a static Simpson is the starting PG. For those with a different opinion, did you watch the tournament? He pretty much completely shut down every PG we faced. Just totally dominant on that end of the court. At least half of Man Bun's points came during the brief periods when Z was not guarding him. And he contributes on offense with his drives and a low TO rate. I fully understand the problems caused by his poor shooting, but I just think it's unlikely anyone else, particularly a freshman, is going to be such a huge upgrade on offense to balance the defensive downgrade.
That said, Beilein does have a challenge getting enough shooters on the court to run his offense with Simpson at the point and Duncan, MAAR, and (probably) Mo gone. Maybe we'll see Livers more at the 5 with Mathews at the 4 with the idea that both wing players would be great shooters? Just thinking out loud here . . .
you would want the abilities of DDJ at the two anyway. Simpson would only help him overcome some of the freshman deficiencies discussed in other posts by dishing him the ball at the appropriate times, one of the reasons he does run the offense for us.
As for Simpon himself, yes he can improve his shooting and there's only one way to do it. Someone mentioned his awkard FT shooting in an attempt to improve his makes. We all know shots are measured on how many times they go through the net and not the route they took leaving the shooters hands. Hell, we and that's all of us, saw the best PG to ever play the game improve his shooting greatly and after his countless hrs of practice he still had a strange delivery. He wouldn't even have had to do that to be considered the greatest because he already pulled down center numbers in pts and rebounds, PG numbers in assists and was the consummate leader. But he knew becoming a better outside shooter would make everything about his game better and he devoted himself tirelessly. Steph and Miller did the same thing until their minds would not let their body falter when they were shooting. He will never approach those pcts. He won't approach Magic's, but he can become much, much better.....at least 10-12% and that's large. The greatest thing about it too is that I really have no doubt he will do just that.
Came from 20 down to win.
FIrst, IMO people vastly underrate development potential of current players, and overrate incoming freshmen - especially under John Beilein.
So much evidence of guys who were awful as frosh/sophs, who suddenly became really good. DJ Wilson and Teske, for example, looked terrible as freshmen, then became completely different players. Remember toothpick Wilson hoisting up horrific threes?
Per the article I'll focus mostly on PG's here, but both Poole and LIvers look like guys who are capable of becoming big-time contributors. Poole's obvious, but Livers showed much more as a frosh than Wilson or Teske. He's gonna be good.
As for PG, Simpson's our starter, and a good one at that. Not likely to replace PG who took you to NCAA finals, where he shut down POY.
Simpson's ceiling offensively is limited, but I see him continuing to improve his driving/passing game, and becoming less of a liability at the line. Lots of bigs who never improve at the line; typically guards can improve with work. I'll be surprised if he doesn't shoot well into the 60's% next year. Not great, but not awful.
As for his passing, I give credit to Loyola; their quickness and switching caused problems; a couple of times Simpson saw an opening, and a Loyola guy got a fingertip on the ball. I think he'll continue to improve and be a fine passer and assist guy.
Do not understimate his defense. Shutting down the opposing team's 'QB' is incredibly valuable.
I also think Brooks has a future here. He needs to get stronger, and Sanderson's a good guy to bring it out. He can play IMO, and just needs time.
It takes awhile for PG's to grasp JB's offense. Many of you people know far more about DeJulius than I, but I'll be surprised if he gets more than a limited, gunner off the bench role as a frosh.
IMO we're looking strong at PG. Jr Simpson > So Simpson, and depth should be better too.
I agree with regards to Brooks. More than once when he came off the bench I felt like I saw a good player in him. He didn't force it, and seemed to make the right play most of the time. Didn't turn it over too much and got some steals. He has less upside than the other two, but I wouldn't mind him sticking around and being valuable his senior year in the CJ Lee mold.
He was really bad in 2008, but in 2009, he was a good guy to have around while some younger players were getting minutes and liable to mess up.
Which is why they gave it to Zavier Simpson. DeJulius will get some game minutes, which will come as a relief to him; trying to score in practice against the best defensive PG in the B1G will be a rude transition from high school...
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