I'm genuinely terrified but I'm also a homer so Michigan 71-70.
Basically my exact thoughts. I think if this game is played 10 times Nova wins 7-8. BUT, hey - anything can happen. If we get hot from 3 I think we take it. We go 4/22 from beyond the arc it's curtains for us.
But fuck it - I believe. M 82 V 76
we have a great chance. Villinova's four losses this yere were close games. Looks they won one close game in regulation and one in OT.
Michigan has been in a few close games this tournament and is battle tested.
I predict our defense holds them under 75 and Michigan wins a close game. A few missed free throws down the stretch cause short term panic.
And we're going to shock the world.
Michigan 86 - Villanova 72
Feeling better about this game than the 2013 championship game going in, hope it is justified.
I'm the opposite. I remember thinking in 2013 it was basically a toss-up game. Tonight feels like playing Basketball 'Bama.
The thing is, Louisville had two quick as hell and good guards, and our guys admitted they hadn't seen anything like that and it was very difficult for them to handle. That isn't the case this time around. So this feels like a closer game from the start.
Vegas had Louisville about a 3-4 pt favorite. What's Villanova, 6.5 or 7?
fingered
We need to be near 80 to win. 77-71 Michigan
If we don't shoot well, 75-65 Nova
M - 63
Nova - 62
If M scores off their open looks, they win. They lose if they don't. Villanova isn't unstoppable, but for once, defense alone won't be enough.
77-71 Michigan.
If little known walk on freshmen Parker Ginobli, and Leonard Aldridge step up, we will really smoke them.
I'm pretty sure they are better than us. I'm glad we get them in a winner take all game. We need to shoot the ball better than we have recently and play great defense. I think we need at least 70 points and probably 75 to have a realistic shot to win. I'll be a homer and take the good guys 74-69. I keep telling myself we are playing with house money at this point and it has been a great season. I feel the basketball gods owe us after 2013. I've convinced myself we will win.
Weird times we live in.
I will put a grand on that bet. No way Brunson goes for zero tonight.
based partially on my suspicion that the refs will play a key role, and not in a good way.
Defense will show up - it always does. I'm going to bet on M hitting slightly above season averages from both the field and the charity strip. I picked M over Kansas 74-66 in the pick'em, so I'll stick with that score over Nova. The desperation fouls in the end game will push the score as Michigan closes out another nail biter in the last couple of minutes.
I mean, this team knows how to close out a win better than any I can remember in a long time!
1. Good guys give them a hell of a game and win a close one
2. Win or lose, I fight back tears knowing it's the last time for MAAR and Robinson and probably Wagner.
3. If Beilein gets to cut the net, I'll blather tears of happiness like a little baby for him
Michigan 69_-62
Michigan 72 Villanova 65.
We're unlikely to win a shootout, so we'll have to control tempo and keep the score in the 60s to low 70s. Beyond the obvious factors, to me there are two big keys to the game. The first is how we handle things when Mo goes to the bench. Given the way Villanova plays, this could easily be a game where Teske just can't play. We'll likely need to survive some minutes with Livers at the 5, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a Simpson-MAAR-Matthews-Robinson-Poole lineup for a stretch. Second, we'll have to win the minutes when Brunson sits. He makes everything go for them, we'll need some spurts when he's on the bench.
Asking him to play defense 20 feet from the basket on someone who can shoot the three or drive to the hole seems like a big ask. It will be interesting to see how minutes get allocated tonight, but I see Pool or Livers getting more time then usual and Teske getting less time then usual.
Right, and it's not a situation where he can overwhelm them with his size on the offensive end. It'll be obvious pretty early whether he can be a factor because Nova is going to test him (and to a lesser extent Duncan) off the dribble.
During our streak, Nova lost a couple of games and we didn't. I keep telling myself we have a chance if our D can give a bit of a shock to their system. Just hope the refs don't call early fouls on every little touch and do what they did to Trey in the first half in our last NC game, not that Spike was bad.
Maybe one of the Drips gets hot and does a Spike.
Honestly? Nova. They're too damn good.
I'm gonna go with what my 1st place in Draymond Green's Bracket challenge Bracket says:
Michigan 74, Villanova 72
Lost in the Loyola game, Michigan scored 47 2nd half points. Offense could be heating up just in time...
The only prediction I have though is that i am going to be an axiety riddled mess and that I am going to hate the late start time tomorrow morning. Easily a 2-hour cool down after the game ends, win or lose.
Villanova is the better team but I give no fucks and anything can happen during one night of basketball.
Can't say I'm confident but I'm happy and excited to watch.
FUCK..Even Oz The Mentalist, a Michigan grad, picked Nova to beat his own team. Even though he wants to be wrong, he says it will happen.
I haven't had these nerves in a looong time.