SIAP: ESPN Expert Predictions for The Game
Sorry if already posted. Only 1 of 25 ESPN "experts" predict a Michigan win. Based on some math I just did in my head, that's only like 7.89999% (or maybe less, like 4% er sumthin'?). Not great...
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22992184/espn-ex…
Given that Kenpom gives us a 31% chance, all hope is not lost. But we are certainly going to need to play really, really well to win. And if the team that almost literally could not miss from 3 against Kansas shows up, I am as scared as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs...
Man I am hoping this is right. It would be amazing to win this game, and I believe we will.
Yeah, this shocked me. Normally you get a handful of contrarians even in the most lop-sided contests. I wonder if only 4% of their experts picked MSU in 2009, when everyone on Earth knew UNC would win? Be interesting to see what the picks were for that game...
Michigan has had a few. I'm no expert, but if Nova gets into a tight game near the end, they may get flustered where our guys gain confidence. Especially if Nova has a really tough day behind the arc and their starters are in foul trouble.
I hear they are ranked 300-something for bench use (i.e. starters get all the minutes). Would be great if we can get the refs to call a fair game. Maybe the block is clean this time.
I think this is an interesting point Grendel....each time I've watched our team this season (especially in the BTT and the NCAA tournament) I've been struck by their resiliency. We might get buried and lose big but there is a lot of moxie (there I said it) on this team. Hope it prevails tonight!
is not all that big, they play a 6'9" 4 & 5. Nova only faced 2 ranked teams (one team x2) in the regular season + conference tournament, whereas UM faced 4 ranked teams (1 team x3 another x2). If UM plays like they did against TAMU they can win.
I'm sure there would have been more contrarians if Michigan's last game was the A&M game and Villanova hadn't just had a record setting game from 3.
even if it is true, me and my buddy picked Michigan so we're up to a 3/27 chance and we're trending up.
Michigan is only in Championship game because they played easiest schedule ever to get there and barely beat the teams they played (See 12 point win, 4 point win, 27 point win, 1 pt win, and 14 point win, Ave 11.6 pt win margin).
I mean, they were lucky to be gifted this seed after ending the season on a terror beating a team expected to win it all at their place and a nuetral court and beating a two seed by double digits.
So, there is your prrof that Michigan can not play and should be given no chance tonight.
They looked great against Kansas. The game prior against Texas Tech? 33% from the field, 17% behind the arc.
They're a college basketball team. They can shit the bed just like anybody else. And I seem to have misplaced my notes, but I believe I heard somewhere that Michigan is okay at defense.
would probably look a lot like the OK St game last year. Or any of the Purdue games this year.
The game @ Purdue was game of the year quality. I don't think our defense will allow this. Villanova will have to hit 30 ft 3-pointers, which sadly they can do.
I don't know how to break it to people but Villanova shot their season average from three against Kansas. They've had two games this tournament where they shot a better percentage. The thing that killed Kansas was the number of threes that got taken, but percentage wise that was normal from Nova and I wouldn't count on some regression to the mean for them.
45%, that is above their season average by several percentage points.
Also, they had 40 3 Pt attempts... not happening today.
I don't know how to break it to you, that Kansas game was an NCAA tournament record for a reason, it was an anomaly.
He said: "We only get one game like that in the tournament."
Distribution matters, too. Nova shot much better to start the game, building a massive lead that Kansas could never approach. As their shooting returned to the median, Kansas actually stayed with them.
But it didn't matter because there was a 20-point gap.
Its a few percentage points above, not some anamoulous performance is the point. We won't give up as many threes as Kansas did so that won't happen to us I'm just saying the percentage wasn't what did. Its not like they hit 80% of their threes, its a completely replicable performance by percentage for this team.
We won't win this game solely with defense. If both teams hit 40% of their threes I strongly believe we will have a chance but this is a team that in losses scored 93, 65, 75, and 71. When they played a defense as statiscally good as Michigan's in texas tech they went 4-22 from three and still scored 71 points. We aren't winning this game if we don't score over 70 points even with a good defensive performance. If this game is in the 60's we win, if its in the 0's I feel good as long as MAAR and Simpson are having good games, if the winning team is scoring voer 80 it probably isn't us winning.
If they score over 80 points on this defense, I'll pat them on the back for a job well done...
That's the difference between a 15-point lead and 1-2 possession game. After watching the Kansas "defense", I believe we can make them earn those 3-pointers.
If we can hound their shooters like we did Purdue in the BTT Championship Game, we have a great chance.
If they shoot their season average of 40% they hit 16 threes instead of 18. Instead of 95 points they have 89. It really ins't that big of a swing. If we hold them to only taking 20 threes and they hit 40% rather than 45% it would mean them going 8 for 20 instead of 9 for 20. My entire point is that them shooting 45% wasn't some anamolous performance that swung the game in a completely unsustainable way. Its what they do, there is no regression to the mean happening like we saw with A&M, the only way to stop this team from running us out of the gym is to stop them from taking more than 20 threes.
They also shot over 30 free throws against Texas Tech. I don't envision that happening against UM. Our D is better than TTU and we foul much less.
"45%, that is above their season average by several percentage points."
Yes... but they did have 14 games this season where they shot a HIGHER percentage from 3.
Villanova had 7 games this season where they shot over 50% from 3... Including 2 of 5 games in the tournament.
Don't know if people saw this, but Charles Barkley of course picks Villanova this morning on the new ESPN show, "GET UP" with our own Jalen Rose. He said the reason was his daughter would be mad if he didn't pick nova since she went to school there. Barkley does say he is worried about Michigan though. So......thanks for picking Nova Barkley.
Then we're a lock!
Then we're a lock!
Let’s do this... GO BLUE
What kind of bag? I mean, is it one of those mini plastic bags, or a full-sized grocery store paper bag? Because the latter holds WAY more dicks...
What kind of dicks are we talking? And how big? Mixed bag o' dicks? These are all questions that an inquisitive mind needs answered.
For some reason, this made me think of a can of mixed nuts, and how the Brazil Nuts are always the biggest...
If it's a convenience store bag used for 40 ounce beers and a porn star dick, ESPN may have to eat only a single large dick. I am pretty sure some of their experts call that "a Saturday"...
One without handles.
Forget the predictions. Forget the stats. Play the game.
I will say that Nova didn't look terribly threatened against TTU. I mean, it was close, but it never felt like TTU had enough to get over the hump offensively. With our ability to stretch defenses, we can keep the pressure on Nova.
"And we have the shooters that WVU and TTU lack"
Ehh...
WVU: #11 KenPom offense
Michigan: #31 KenPom offense