February 28th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
You are right.
This year, however, all the 1s and 2s are basically interchangable.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
I'll add Villanova and Duke. Gimme some Xavier.
February 28th, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^
Villanova is overrated
February 28th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^
How? They are best offensive team in the country.
February 28th, 2018 at 4:32 PM ^
Villanova never recruits at the level of the blue bloods and tends to "get the most out of their talent," which (I think) can make them vulnerable to an early exit from the tournament. Also, this year's squad is not as good defensively as in years past.
On the other hand... they are the best scoring team in the country (87.5 ppg in a strong conference), two of their losses occurred when they were missing starters to injury, and ESPN currently lists them as no. 2 in both RPI and BPI, so I'm not sure they are "overrated" in any really obvious way. They also beat Xavier twice by a combined 40 points.
(None of this, of course, makes them some sort of Final Four lock, which I'm not sure even exists this year.)
[EDIT: Meant principally as a response to JHumich, furthering the conversation above]
February 28th, 2018 at 10:57 PM ^
(A) Objectively, they are terrible at rebounding and defense, which have an increased importance in the tourney
(B) Subjectively, I think that the Big East as a whole is overrated
February 28th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
Talent wise and what they've done on the season, the 1s and 2s are the same. That's what my intent was.
February 28th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
I said this is one of the other bracketology threads, but Kansas doesn't scare me in the slightesst. Let Z live in Grahams pocket for 40 minutes and have their huge immobile center have to stretch out further than the block or let Wagner rain down on him. Think it is actually a very favorable matchup for us.
February 28th, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^
Went pretty well the last time we played Kansas in the tourney
February 28th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
Would you rather play Xavier or Purdue? Because that's a 1 and 2 right now, respectively, and I'd certainly take the former.
February 28th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
But I agree with your point. UNC and Duke are currently the 2 seeds we could meet as a 6. I'd prefer an easier path to get that far to worrying about the 1 seeds.
February 28th, 2018 at 5:05 PM ^
In the Bracketology that this thread references, ESPN has us as the 5 and MSU as the 2 in the Midwest.
February 28th, 2018 at 8:11 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
By the numbers...
Last year all 5 seeds were out of the tournament after the first weekend.
No 5 seed has won the Championship (data back to 1985)
Only six 5 seeds made the Final Four
February 28th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
5 seeds are exactly 2 times as likely as 6 seeds to reach the final four on this link that you shared. I will take the higher seed number, every time - no exceptions.
February 28th, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
6 seeds have a higher number of expected wins vs. 5 seeds. And 12 seeds have a higher number of expected wins than 11.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Before last year, no 8 seed had won the BTT.
John Beilein laughs at history.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
I like your thinking!
February 28th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
Was huge. I think M could work their way into a 4 if they beat Iowa/Illinois and NEB, regardless of what happens with MSU.
But a win over MSU, you'd almost have to give them a 4, no?
February 28th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
seed if they win on Thursday and beat Nebraska. 5 seed if they win on Thursday but lose to Nebraska. 6 seed if they lose to either Iowa or Illinois in the opening round. 4 seed if they beat Nebraska but State gets upset and M plays and beats either Wisconsin or Maryland in the semis instead. 3 seed if they beat MSU again. 3 seed if they win the BTT regardless of who the opponents end up being.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
If we get to the BTT championship game I think we have to be a 4. If we win it I think we're a lock for a 4 with a slight chance for a 3.
February 28th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^
I think we get a 3.
February 28th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
Right now, there are other fanbases sitting around thinking the same thing about their team -- and every single one of them has more chances to get a résumé-boosting win than Michigan does. Texas and UCLA may both miss the tournament; even with a second win over MSU, that's still just three wins over tournament teams, and 5-6 quadrant one wins, depending on if PSU can pull back into the RPI top 75.
They might get a 4 with a win over MSU, but it's certainly not a guarantee. They're the last 5 seed in the Bracket Matrix right now; they'd have to jump four teams and have nobody else jump them, despite having an entire extra week to do so.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
Uncle Leo's job
How about we play a game thurs.
Go Blue.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^
I posted it in the Illinois v Iowa thread, but didn't want to start another one since I had a thread last night.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
Loud noises!!!!!!
February 28th, 2018 at 12:50 PM ^
with the dreaded "sat on my ass for two weeks and come out cold in Round 1 because of shithead Jim Delaney" curse. May impact us whatever seed we are...
February 28th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
takin' 'em fishin'.
February 28th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
In my head, I read this as "spar tie".
February 28th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^
bracket matrix now has us as the last 5: http://bracketmatrix.com/.
jerry palm has us as a 6. bart torvick and ctd, which are entirely algorithmic driven have us as a 5 and 6 respectively.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
Lunardi has Nebraska first 4 out. We are definitely going to get their best shot.
Also surprised Lunardi has UNC holding onto a two seed after losing at home to Miami last night.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
losses. One of them to Wofford, the fourth place team in the Southern Conference. At home. And another loss to come against Duke.
2 seed.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
The reason that the 5-12 curse is a thing is two fold. One, is that the 12 used to be only the really good mid-majors, who are typically underseeded because the selection committee loves big conference basketball, no matter how shitty they have been. This partially changed when they went to 68 teams because one of the 12 seeds is going to be a play in game on some of the last teams in the field.
The other reason that those upsets occur so often is that a lot of times, the 5 seeds are teams that had really solid resumes but have been faltering as of late. Teams that were 2 or 3 seeds but lost something like 4 of 6 down the stretch. Obviously teams that aren't playing well are more likely to get picked off. That would include the likes of Ohio State, Texas Tech, Arizona, etc. Certainly not teams that have been surging and improving their seeds at rapid rates.
February 28th, 2018 at 6:05 PM ^
The 5-12 curse isn't a thing, at least not statistically. 5 seeds win their first round games 67.1% of the time. This is a better win percentage than every lower seed.
The 5s are cursed in later rounds though. They're less likely than 6 seeds to win both their second round game and their third round game.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
Louisiana in the opener? Cakewalk game 2.
What's bullish is that we are becoming consensus Top 20, among AP/Coaches Polls, KenPom, BPI. Win 2 or 3 this week and I think we're a 4/5 in MW. Take it
February 28th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
bracket would be terrific. #4 seed is Texas Tech, who IMO would be a great matchup for us, after watching them get smoked by West Virginia on Monday. #1 seed is Xavier, probably the weakest of the "1's".
Unfortunately - keep in mind this is that moron Joe Lunardi's bracket. This is not an intelligent individual. Example - Auburn gets the crap kicked out of them last night by Arkansas, and are losers of 3 of their last 4 games, including Florida and a bad South Carolina team. Because of this, today Lunardi moves their seed to... oh, wait he doesn't move them at all, leaves them as a #3 seed. Asinine.
Still think we are worthy of a #4 seed ultimately - prob only way to get it is make BTT finals in tourney, as ThatTCGuy says above.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
Isn't Lunardi's bracket prediction 99% correct every year?
February 28th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
I will personally send Joe Lunardi a note and a candygram apologizing for my own stupidity, and forever praise his greatness...
February 28th, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
His predictions won't be finalized for awhile.
February 28th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
Since the field expanded to 68 teams, he has only predicted the teams in the tournament at a 97.94% clip and predicted 52.94% of the seeds correctly.
Definitely not the brightest bulb in the box.
February 28th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
is actually pretty damn impressive. His seeding numbers are obviously not great, but a 98% correct rate for the teams getting in is pretty good.
February 28th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^
February 28th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
It's not that impressive when you consider that the 97.9% is just for his very last bracket, that he makes on Selection Sunday. It's not like he's calling his shot a week in advance.
By that Sunday, at least 60 of the 68 teams are total locks and probably another 5-6 are extremely likely. It's basically a matter of guessing the last couple of teams in the field.
It's the seeding that's the actual challenge, and he totally sucks at that - 53% is terrible when you're talking about a prediction made a few hours in advance.
February 28th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
The Committee only throws one or two curveballs a year in that regard. He consistently rates as one of the least accurate brackets on the Matrix in terms of overall seeding accuracy. He's not good at this. At all.