Win Total Recalibration, along with Seeding
With beating MSU this afternoon, Michigan has the signature win that Brian here at mgoblog and Dylan at umhoops have been pining for. As mentioned in the post above we are now at 16 kenpom. How would you recalibrate the win total, and the seeding?
So far, our record is 15 - 4, with 4 - 2 in the conference. Looking at the remaining schedule, the only loss I feel confident in predicting is Purdue. I suppose randomness means one more defeat beyond that. That would leave Michigan at 25 - 6 total, 14 - 4 in the Big 10.
- W vs. MD
- W @ Nebraska
- W vs. Rutgers
- L @ Purdue
- W vs. NW
- W vs. MN
- W @ NW
- W @ Wisconsin
- W vs. Iowa
- W vs. OSU
- W @ PSU
- W @ MD
Well sure, I've been drinking the koolaid, and am drunk on the win today. But Livers has really come on. With Livers starting, I don't really see a weakness in our starting unit. Poole is still improving, as is Teske. With the two of them and Robinson, we have a solid bench.
As far as our opponents go, Maryland and Minnesota are now crippled with roster losses. Northwestern has reverted to form. And I really don't see a loss to Iowa or PSU. The hardest game left besides Purdue would be OSU, but I think they will come back to earth, and beyond Bates-Diop, I don't think they have the depth to stay with Michigan. Plus, Michigan is now devising a better plan to deal with the switching.
I also see Michigan winning at least a couple games in the Big 10 Tournament. And if they continue this way, I see a much higher seed for the NCAA tourney, maybe a 4 - 5 seed.
Anyway, what's your take?
January 13th, 2018 at 7:14 PM ^
@NW is probably the only other loss
January 13th, 2018 at 7:16 PM ^
Wish I was as confident about beating TOSU at Home.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:19 PM ^
I could see a loss there ultimately costing us a Big Ten title. Didn't that happen in 1994?
January 13th, 2018 at 7:26 PM ^
That, coupled with the collapse at Crisler against Purdue in the season finale.
January 14th, 2018 at 7:44 AM ^
want to puke on that 94 Purdue game. Worst game I can remember seeing Fisher coach. (And that is saying something).
January 13th, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^
I don't think we'll win the Big 10 regular season title unless we do even better than what I predict. Purdue and OSU are two games up on Michigan. Looking at OSU's schedule, they can lose away to Purdue, and to Michigan. But they'd also have to lose to another team or two for Michigan to catch up. NW? PSU? I don't think so. They already beat MSU, and don't face them again.
Regarding Purdue, we'd definitely have to beat them on the road. And they'd have to lose to MSU on the road. But we'd still have to win all our games to just pull even with them. Again, don't think that'll happen.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:16 PM ^
Could be but I'd be happy with 13-5 for sure. At NE can certainly be tough.
Prolly like a five seed but a really long way to go with possible injuries and all.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:17 PM ^
2-3 more BIG losses
January 13th, 2018 at 7:17 PM ^
I don't want to write off that Purdue game. We know we can play with them.
I feel like we'll probably have a couple off nights coming up but yeah . . . looking at that schedule, we could go on a run.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:21 PM ^
Agree, went toe to toe with Ivan Drago and company even with Wagner having a down game. Purdue will also likely not shoot the 3-ball that well the rest of the season.
January 14th, 2018 at 1:22 AM ^
but they probably won't shoot as poorly from two (15-36). They missed a lot of bunnies such that I thought it probably evened out with their good 3pt shooting.
That's going to be a really tough game in a really tough place to play. Purdue is the best team in the conference, and I've been saying that for a while. I thought we had a good chance at MSU, and I think our chances are much longer at Purdue.
We're playing really well though, and other than FTs from two of our three starting guards, I don't know what other weakness we have. Wouldn't count us out.
January 13th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^
There are some short turnarounds in the schedule. I know they don't like the Thursday/Sunday schedule. There are probably more lossses based on the schedule.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^
I see us losing @ Purdue, and we will lose one other game that will cause this fan base to go nuts and the #FireBelien haters will be out in full force. But the rest of the season looks very promising.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^
What will it take? Not sure I see 3 losses on Purdue’s schedule, unfortunately. That loss stings. I predict we lose 4 or 5 total. Winning on the road is tough.
January 14th, 2018 at 1:27 AM ^
when we got screwed against Purdue at home. Had to have that one. Purdue has a very easy schedule remaining. They don't go to OSU, they only play MSU once. They're projected to go 16-2 and I wouldn't be surprised if they go 17-1. As much as I like our team, we aren't winning out.
We're playing for a top 4 seed and a (near) home weekend to start the tourney at LCA. We'll get that if we go 14-4 in the conference. It'll be tough, and I'd say we're more likely to go 13-5, but certainly can get to 14-4.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^
Too far out to predict accurately. I do think we need to win out at home, the only tough game is OSU and we need revenge there.
All road games except Purdue we're the better team, but road games in conference invite randomness. @PSU and @MD seem to be the toughest. PSU us pretty decent, and MD still has talent just no depth. @Nebraska could be tricky too, they're decent this year.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:39 PM ^
MD is out two starters, iirc. I predict they will crater. PSU and Nebraska, I think Michigan is better and tougher, and less likely to geck up games on the road this year.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
MD is down 2 starters but they still are talented. Cowan is a good PG and Fernando is playing himself into a One and Done lottery guy.
I think we're better than PSU and Nebraska, but road games are road games. Road games against decent teams can always be loses.
January 14th, 2018 at 1:33 AM ^
we'll probably lose three more road games:
almost certainly Purdue
and then two of Wisc, Neb, PSU, NW, MD.
Road games are hard. We'll have a couple off nights. Even the national runner up team lost @PSU (who were bad).
Gotta win that home game against OSU and if we do, I think we run the table at home.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:19 PM ^
Regardless, we were on the 8 line going into today and now 6 seems like the likely worst case scenario. Winning the conference tourney could vault Michigan to the 3/4 line even with two more conference losses in the regular season.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:22 PM ^
I’d be OK with B2B tourney champs.
January 13th, 2018 at 9:08 PM ^
Best tourney wins ever.
January 13th, 2018 at 8:25 PM ^
Last year the BTT didn’t vault us as much as most thought. That could have been due to other resumes M was going against. Still exciting.
January 14th, 2018 at 1:34 AM ^
the committee doesn't factor in the last game.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:25 PM ^
cost them 1 or 2 more games than you project, but if the growth pattern continues they could earn consideration for a 4/5 line and look to be a tough out in the tournament.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:43 PM ^
When they started fouling Z my initial reaction was "alright!" Then they showed his numbers on the season and I thought, "oh, no." His form is too good for him to shoot that bad. Beilein will get him in the gym, instill some confidence and he will be up around 75% in March.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:32 PM ^
Monday is going to be a major mental task.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:41 PM ^
Why is the game on Monday anyway? Big Ten games aren't usually that day.
January 13th, 2018 at 8:34 PM ^
Delaneys brilliance of putting the BTT in Madison Sq Garden means it has to be a week early since the Big East is having theirs there as well during the normal conference tournament weekend. B1G has to cram in conference games all over the place
January 13th, 2018 at 9:55 PM ^
So now you have Big Ten regular season games on Monday and Friday nights. Michigan has two Monday games this season, in two days against Maryland and two weeks later against Northwestern (both are home games).
Thanks, Jim.
January 13th, 2018 at 10:44 PM ^
They played two conference games in December so they don't have to cram games in during January and february.
January 14th, 2018 at 1:37 AM ^
we're still cramming games in. Today was the start of 4 games in 8 days (Sat, Mon, Thurs, Sat).
I can't remember us ever playing two weekday games in between two weekend games.
Kind of worried about @Nebraska on Thursday after this tough three game stretch we're in the middle of.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^
the next one.
Not too much koolaid now.
Don't get to high, don't get to low.
Go Blue.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^
They'll probably lose at least 2 more games, though I could see them beat Purdue but then lose at NW or something like that.
Still, this feels like, at best, a 7 seed because they just won't have a large number of signature wins. Maybe they get to the 6 with a nice run in the BATH. But they will absolutely ruin a couple of brackets by blitzing some higher seeded teams.
January 13th, 2018 at 11:40 PM ^
We should be ranked around #20 on Monday, which would put us in line for a 5 seed.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:38 PM ^
put at Nebraska in the W column..they are very good at home...a Win there and I will drink the koolaid
January 13th, 2018 at 7:49 PM ^
While the TVs in the toilet stalls are undeniably an aid to Nebraska, we've never lost in that building.
January 13th, 2018 at 9:11 PM ^
That TV program on that TV is for show. I heard they loop a video showing their players how to wipe properly.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:43 PM ^
The Fox broadcast showed Schwab's current projection of Michigan as an 8-seed in the Tournament, which if they manage the 23-8 or so record now predicted on some analytics sites is something I would say feels about right. I would go with 7-9 because of what will be a lack of impressive wins save for this and maybe if we do beat Purdue away. Still, I think we'd be a very dangerous 7-9 seed if we keep playing like this.
January 13th, 2018 at 8:20 PM ^
I really want a better seed than 8 or 9. That puts you against a one seed the first weekend. I think probably there are 4 or so teams (1 seeds) Michigan will be hard pressed to beat. The later we face them, the better. On the other hand, it would be very cool to be a 9 seed and take out a 1 seed. I am not a stat nerd, but I'm sure that hasn't happened very often.
January 13th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
I would worry about Maryland. That is a huge game for UM, following this huge win with a let down loss at home v Maryland would erase any good this win has done. Beat the Terps.
January 13th, 2018 at 8:03 PM ^
Beat Maryland
January 13th, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^
One game at a time. I’ve been drinking the west coast IPA. That said, if Wagner stays healthy this team could reach the Final 4
January 13th, 2018 at 8:51 PM ^
We were 23-7 (15-3) in 2014 and won 2 B1G tournament games and were the highest two seed
January 13th, 2018 at 9:08 PM ^
The Big Ten was better that year though.
January 14th, 2018 at 10:31 AM ^
I believe we were 23-7 in 1989. Got a 3 seed.
January 13th, 2018 at 8:55 PM ^
a pretty good team. That said, I think we beat them at home.
January 13th, 2018 at 9:15 PM ^
game by game outcomes against teams is stupid. it's not football. not even close. sparty was supposed to run the table in the BIG. look at their schedule right? i said they would likely lose 3 games. not because i'm a genius, but because it's hard to win on the road in the BIG, against anyone, even rutgers.
it's easier to pull an upset in basketball. one hot shooter can do it. we saw it today with wagner. hell, golden state has lost 9 games and i'm guessing they have been favored in just about every one of them.
if UM can go 12-6, i will be ecstatic. i was hoping for at least 10-8 at the beginning of the year.
January 13th, 2018 at 10:42 PM ^
That one looks like an L to me Steve, tough place to win. Do love what I perceive as the mental toughness of this team as it continues to grow by leaps and bounds. Interested to hear what people think is behind this toughness.....
January 14th, 2018 at 12:32 AM ^
Suck. You can’t undo sucky-ness!