What are reasonable Michigan FB Team Success Criteria
I think there are now 4 primary goals for the football team to achieve each year and most of them are interconnected.
Beat key rivals (OSU, Michigan State, Rutgers) bonus points for hitting harder
Win Big10 Championship
Make National Championship Playoff
Win National Championship
With the exception of beating Rutgers these are hard goals to achieve. OSU has the #2 ranked 4 year average recruiting class. OSU's results since 2012 (Meyer's reign)
2 Big Ten Titles (2014 & 2017)
1 National Championship (2014)
2 National Championship Playoff Invites (2014 & 2016).
My personal thought is we beat OSU every other year, Michigan State 75% of the time, Win the Big10 1 out of 4 years, & makes the National Championship 1 out of every 4 years then the program is doing as well as we can reasonably expect.
What say you?
December 5th, 2017 at 5:21 PM ^
I just want to feel happy.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:58 PM ^
He asked for "reasonable" expectations.
December 5th, 2017 at 11:03 PM ^
Bojack?
December 6th, 2017 at 2:56 PM ^
and beating every team 100-0 every week.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:25 PM ^
Ideal: 1/2 against OSU and 2/3 against MSU with 4 big ten championships a decade.
Reasonable: 2/5 against OSU and 1/2 against MSU with 2 big ten championships a decade.
I won't even talk national championships because we've only won 1 in the last 70 years.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:37 PM ^
Once QB and OL play and depth are established?
Reasonable: beat OSU 1/2 the time, MSU every year, win big ten 1/2 the time, playoff berth 4 times a decade, national championship once a decade
Ideal: beat OSU 3/4 of the time, MSU every year, win big ten 3/4 of the time, playoff berth 6 times a decade, national championship 3 times a decade
We have as many undefeated seasons as Alabama since 1980. I expect to pass them by the end of the 2019 season, and then go undefeated at least once again in the decade that follows.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:41 PM ^
In perpetuity, it seems, just two years away.
December 6th, 2017 at 11:13 AM ^
Beating MSU every year is unreasonable and not really ideal.
Since they've joined the big ten we are 36-27-2 against them. That is a 56.9% winning percentage.
If you removed the Dantonio era then we are 33-19-2 against them. That is a 62.9% winning percentage.
Hence why ideally we'd be 2/3 which is approximately the pre Dantonio average.
December 5th, 2017 at 7:01 PM ^
3/5 osu. 5 B1G per decade.
5 CFP per decade.
2 NC per decade.
Edit: 5 CFP per decade assumes the CFP pulls its head outta its ass and goes auto bid for conference champs.
December 5th, 2017 at 7:42 PM ^
1) Real Expectations every year: Beat OSU, Win Big Ten: if you do that, you have generally done enough.
2) Realistic Expectations: >OSU 6/10, Conference Champs 4/10, National Champs 1/10, by hapistance >MSU 8/10
December 5th, 2017 at 9:17 PM ^
My expectations hinge on what OSU does not Michigan. My expectations are:
1. Urban retires in 5 years.
2. OSU's football hierarchy hires a square peg in a round hole for a Coach and then does everything to undermine him.
3. They then fire said Coach and replace him with an average MAC Coach that is Al Bundy (Fred Flinstone already taken) who inevitably finds himself way over his head and can't right the ship.
4. After self sabotaging their program for a decade they finally make a decent hire and get a Coach that might challenge us after The Wolverines have beat their ass ten years in a row.
Please let this become a reality. I dont want to be the only team to get "bad things"!
December 5th, 2017 at 5:27 PM ^
1) Avoid anything embarassing that will bring public shame to the institution I put on my resume.
2) Win BIG championship every few years and be competitive in off-years (within a game or several plays of being in the championship).
3) That is all. If we do #2, we will get some national titles as well.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:27 PM ^
Making the NCG 1 out of every 4 years might be slightly unrealistic seeing how competitive the conference will be between Michigan, OSU, PSU, Wisconsin, MSU, and eventually Nebraska.
Have to imagine we split with OSU/PSU for the east at best, then have to battle Wisconsin and eventually Nebraska for the conference, then have to beat another strong candidate in the semis. I would be happy with making the playoff 1 out of every 3 years.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:38 PM ^
Making the playoffs every 3 years? Yikes, man. Definitely going to need Urban to retire for that to happen.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:42 PM ^
Or more realistically, the playoffs expanding to 6-8 teams.
December 6th, 2017 at 12:45 PM ^
Despite our record against him, Urbz has been de-mythicized for me since Harbaugh has come on. With just decent QB play we should have beaten them the last two years.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:29 PM ^
I just want to see a big ten championship next year
December 5th, 2017 at 5:30 PM ^
At this point, with as good as OSU is, I think it's as simple as beating OSU 1/2 games and beating MSU 2/3 until D'Antoni goes elsewhere. If those things happen, I assume the rest will happen (except a Natty).
December 5th, 2017 at 5:44 PM ^
If Dantonio doesn't end up elsewhere in the current carousel, I'd expect him to spend his remaining coaching years at MSU.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:50 PM ^
Hate to admit it, but Dantonio is a damn good coach. His loyalty to MSU is keeping him down.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:21 PM ^
agree he is a good coach. howeva, to move up, you gotta be a top recruiter - which he isn't (with his sunny personality, this is a surprise, i know). long story short: he's perfect where he is.
December 5th, 2017 at 8:04 PM ^
Not so sure I agree with that. Saban seems to have a similar personality. Must be something in the EL water.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:59 PM ^
Yeah I was thinking more along the lines of scandal or retirement. Possibly just a slow fade from solid to blah if we ever start playing at the level we hope Harbaugh to play at.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:30 PM ^
.500 record vs OSU, .750 record vs MSU and PSU. Also, become known for developing our own QBs once again.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:36 PM ^
This in line with my thinking. I'd maybe also add winning 2/3 of the conf championship games we are in.
Playoffs and beyond...that's all just gravy to me.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^
Michigan and OSU two of the three years, MSU or PSU for the third. By the same token I'd be happy with the B1G East being known as the B1G Two little five.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:31 PM ^
Winning the East Division should be in there, IMO.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:24 PM ^
I agree. We've got to win the division first. It's been so long since we've won the Conference. Contrast that to John Beilein who in 10 seasons has won the regular season title twice and the Big 10 playoffs once, and yet, we have a poor showing like last night and nearly everybody is on his back about not being elite. For football, I'll take 3 division titles and 2 conference titles every decade. Folks were spoiled by Bo. But it's not the Big 2 and little 8 anymore. We shouldn't expect to win the conference every other year on average. It would be nice, but OSU, PSU, MSU, Wisconsin, and some once a century team from the rest of the Big 10 is going to have their say as well.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:32 PM ^
For football:
1. Beat MSU and/or OSU every other year
2. win a big ten title or at least the division every 4 years
3. Make the playoffs once every 4 years
4. Win a national championship every 10-15 years
For basketball:
1.Split with OSU/MSU every year
2. Finish in the top 7 of the big ten every year
3. Win a big ten title or tourney title every 4 years
4. Make the NCAA tourney every year barring any major injury
5. Win one more NCAA tourney before I die (I am 28 years old)
December 5th, 2017 at 5:56 PM ^
Re: basketball bullet point #2
I think this is too low a bar. The B1G has only one "blue blood" basketball program in Indiana that has institutional advantages over Michgian. But after Indiana, Michigan sits in a group of schools that is very similar in terms of past success and future ceiling. I believe this tier consists of the following schools in no particular order:
Ohio State
Michigan State
Michigan
Illinois
Maryland
In theory, if IU is operating at maximum capacity, then the schools in the above tier will never be able to surpass IU. However, there is nothing preventing Michigan from being better than the other schools in this tier. That means realistically Michigan should be finishing in the top 2 to top 6 of the B1G every year. It's also unlikely that all 5 of these schools plus Indiana are operating at maximum capacity at the same time, that's why for me Michigan should finish in the top 4 every year.
Note: if you're wondering about Wisconsin or Purdue, I think Michigan has a much higher ceiling than both.
December 5th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^
In regards to history and recent success I would put Michigan State Indiana Purdue and Maryland above Michigan without a doubt. Michigan would be in the secondary group with Illinois Ohio State Wisconsin so mayb top 5 then
December 5th, 2017 at 5:32 PM ^
you should be publically flogged for listing Rutgers as a rival.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:58 PM ^
Everyone knows our number one rival is Illinois. I knew Illinois, and Rutgers is no Illinois.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:33 PM ^
That-That-That's a good question.
What-What happens is, the-the-the center has-has the ball first.
And-And-And the quarterback will say, "Hike."
That's when the c-center puts the ball in-into the hands of the quarterback.
So what I do is, l-I start tacklin' the quarterback, unless he give the ball to-to s-somebody else, in which case, l-I try to tackle that person.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:33 PM ^
Barring key injuries and horrible officiating.
December 5th, 2017 at 8:05 PM ^
every year, come November, we should be nationally relevant with a legitimate shot to win the conference (think the 2015 team minus the MSU game which totally never happened). On top of that, once every 4 years I expect us to have a team that could play for a natty (2016 team, 2006 team) if things fall the right way. If those are being accomplished I know we’ll be successful against the two most pressing issues: rivals and ranked teams on the road.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:37 PM ^
1) Protects the QB from injuries and constant sacks by pass protecting
2) Gets a 2-yd push for running plays
3) Plays like a hungry junkyard dog until the whistle blows
4) Creates run lanes
5) Avoids stupid penalties
6) Hits somebody every play
7) Gets our pathetic offense back on track
8) Gives our defense a break by making first downs, moving the ball, and scoring TDs
December 5th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^
Oh. Good. Another thread with takes on what "success" means. Becuase this isn't a topic that (a) hasn't been discussed ad naseum and (b) isn't 100% feelings ball. I'm sure some productive discussions will arise.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:41 PM ^
every other year seems reasonable.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:46 PM ^
I want to beat Ohio State but goddamn can we beat Iowa?
December 5th, 2017 at 5:50 PM ^
cant imagine many being disappointed with conference rings every 4 years to go with college playoff appearances.
its not like theyre splitting big ten titles after 9-3 or 8-4 seasons, theyd need to win the divison and then win in indy...no simple task to rack up conference titles. i think every 4 years would be outstanding. maybe a little generous given modern history but still reasonable. and if the big ten champ makes the playoff at a decent clip, theyd likely have decent odds of turning conference titles into playoff appearances.
if harbaugh can average bw 9-10 wins per season, graduate his players and reestablish michigan as consistent nfl factory, then hes succeeded...that should translate to some big ten rings, rivalry game wins, playoff appearances, etc
December 5th, 2017 at 5:52 PM ^
Hiring Jim Harbaugh was a great start.
There is no pat answer here. Expectations and goals evolve based on where the program is. For this year, I think a New Year's Bowl was a reasonable measure of success. Ditto for the last two years ('15 and '16). Michigan exceeded expectations last year, and perhaps in '15 as well.
I think the goal for next year is to compete for a B1G title. With the talent coming back on defense, and given it is year four for Harbaugh, that is reasonable. A New Years Six bowl is the measure of a good season, next year.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:15 PM ^
We were chosen over two teams with better records in the Big Ten (NW and MSU) solely because of our reputation.
December 6th, 2017 at 9:25 AM ^
Yeah I suppose it is arguable whether this has been a successful year. Close call. I think in some ways yes, some ways no. Ex ante, Outback Bowl is about what I expected. With a healthy Speight maybe Michigan beats State and Ohio and is in the Tournament. But probably not.
December 5th, 2017 at 5:58 PM ^
The standard was set by Bo and the greats before him. We compete for B1G titles, and let the rest fall in place after that.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^
I sure hope opinions have changed in the almost 50 years since Bo said that. That's an ancient thought process. I'd hope Harbaugh and his coaches/players were thinking bigger
December 5th, 2017 at 6:44 PM ^
Means that we are putting a ceiling on our expectations, which is a silly thing to do with Harbaugh in charge. The ceiling is a national championship. Also if we relied on what Bo wanted we are in for a lot more bowl losses.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:04 PM ^
Or more depending on luck and schedule.
Let’s not underestimate how hard it is to go undefeated. Being consistently really good is great (and really all we can ask for).
December 5th, 2017 at 6:06 PM ^
You guys saying 1/2 against MSU need to get your heads on straight. The natural order of things is for us to win 2/3. And that's an absolute minimum expectation as far as I'm concerned.
December 5th, 2017 at 6:20 PM ^
The natural order of things is out of whack due to dantonio being at MSU. He's got them to play UM and OSU tougher than just about any opponents that either school has faced over the last 5 years or so. "The natural order of things" may not be back to normal until dantonio and Meyer are gone. Even then, OSU probably replaces him with someone just as good (MSU will virtually cease to exist when Dandinio is gone)