Simple Stats on How Bad Our OL is
Exactly how bad is our OL? I think these two stats tell everything we need to know.
We have played 5 opponents. If we calculate their average tackle for loss and average sack per game (sans the Michigan game) and add them together, you get 25.8 for TFL and 6.25 sacks. This is what our opponents have done when they were not playing Michigan.
If you add up TFL and Sacks for the games that they played Michigan, you get 38 for TFL and 16 for sacks. Simply put, our opponents (defense) registered 50% more TFL than average and almost 3X number of sacks than average against our OL.
That is a tire-fire level badness. You don't need to look any further on why our offense is so bad.
P.S. There was a question about this stat not being tempo-free. I went back and checked and our opponents faced about 15% (at the most) more offensive plays than their average against Michigan. So adjust above numbers down by about 15%. It still does not explain that our opponents are registering 35% more TFL and 2.5X more sacks than against other opponents.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^
staaahhhhppp
October 9th, 2017 at 12:28 PM ^
Sorry, but we've got at least a whole week of this stuff yet.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:57 PM ^
And this brings some numbers into play not seen elsewhere, so it has some actual value.
Granted, more value like this and people will be jumping out of office windows, but that's not the fault of the OP.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:47 PM ^
I didn't want to start a new thread about this, it took me years to get the points I got, but if just half the O-line he recruited panned out to average we wouldn't be discussing this. Heck, we probably would have won the game. And the Ohio State game. And the Iowa game. Hell, we could be national champions.
October 10th, 2017 at 2:09 AM ^
ALL THE GAMES!
October 9th, 2017 at 1:15 PM ^
Im about to start pouring vinegar to my already salted wounds
October 9th, 2017 at 12:29 PM ^
such that the results aren't so ugly?
I mean, MSU's O line is equally as young and it didn't seem even UM's D line was dominating the LoS like that.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^
Go more spread. We heard over the off-season that Michigan wanted to incorporate more spread concepts which was good b/c we had a plethora of young receivers/TE plus it would make it easier on our OL.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:43 PM ^
Our WRs are not good and we have no depth there. Instead of throwing more of them on the field wouldn't more TE usage be beneficial? Then we could always have an extra blocker or two at or near the line of scrimmage. TE could help our weakest spot, RT.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:47 PM ^
But just not running as much and replacing that with quick passes will definitely improve TFL and sack numbers...
October 12th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
Unless those quick passes aren't open and our WRs don't seem to be great at getting open.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:55 PM ^
msu has a young shitty offensive line, no wr talent or depth and a young first time starting qb. Their offense sure as hell isn't great but they scored two touchdowns on a superior defense. The coaching is failing right now.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:12 PM ^
I hate to say it but Dan Antonio's misdirection in the first half was not complicated and took advantage of known UM defensive tendencies.
It seemed by the playcalling our staff thought we had Bama's O line aand were just going to knock Sparty off the ball (or ride complex route trees to TD passes).
It would seem we need to dumb it down a bit (but I was a SE and CB and don't really understand the O line).
Mork has outcoached Harbaugh in every meeting thus far IMO.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^
I said it when Borges was here and I will say it now. I hate complicated offenses. you only have so much time to practice, if your offense is too complicated you will never execute it properly with college limitations on practice time. simplify the offense, make sure you have plenty of wrinkles and counters so the defense doesn't know what's coming, and execute. more chance everybody is on the same page with regards to blocking and running routes.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^
First TD was gifted by Bush unsportsmanlike. Second TD was set up by a screen pass they've been saving all year. Their offense was absolutely dominated. We even outgained them by 50 yards, so let's not talk like their offense is anything to aspire to.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:43 PM ^
Why couldn't Michigan pull off a play they had been saving all year? Still 7 points if I've got that right. Seems like we could have used those 7.
October 9th, 2017 at 4:19 PM ^
Bush retaliated after Allen clubbed him over the head?
October 9th, 2017 at 2:11 PM ^
Our TEs aren't good blockers, so they really don't help there. Running heavy sets makes it harder on the Oline because it results in the defense putting 8 guys in the box.
Use the TEs, yeah, but split at least one of them out wide.
October 9th, 2017 at 3:14 PM ^
Add more screen passes, play action, and even the occasional QB draw to slow the defensive line down. Reduce the number of inside runs since our line isn't strong enough to open holes.
Also, pick a running back and stick with him. Preferably Ty Isaac since he's the best in pass protection.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:41 PM ^
Not necessarily the offensive line per say, but how about stick with one back for Christ's sake? Higdon was having the best game and they kept insisting on shuffling all three. And when Higdon would actually gain positive yardage, let's go five wide deep routes in a monsoon! I said about ten times "run the football". Or for God's sake how about a play action screen? Or any play action!
October 9th, 2017 at 3:17 PM ^
Mo Hurst had eight tackles. Our DL dominated their OL.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^
We haven’t started the tough part of the schedule yet...
October 9th, 2017 at 12:45 PM ^
Embrace the suck. Next year ain't lookin' much better.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:55 PM ^
when is the Calvary coming?*
*I see what I did there.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:46 PM ^
You need tempo-free stats to make this argument. Raw totals are heavily influenced by other factors, such as Michigan's dominant defense meaning that they get more offensive snaps than a team with a lesser defense would.
I'm not saying the OL has played well -- it hasn't -- just that this isn't the right argument to prove it.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^
Just taking a quick look, I don't think tempo-free would be much better. I can run the numbers tonight, but because of how bad our offense is, the number of our offensive snaps against the opponents of our opponents will be that different.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:37 PM ^
Our opponents are facing about 66 opponent offensive plays per game. Our offense is averaging about 74 offensive plays per game, a 12% difference. That does not explain the 50% and 280% differences.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:56 PM ^
but we suck
October 9th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
This is an absolutely perfect statement. They havent done as well vs teams not previously #7 in the country. Not by a long shot. Tempo... ha. What tempo? Our offense is Borges level right now.
October 9th, 2017 at 12:50 PM ^
Need a weatherman to know which way the winds blowin'
October 9th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^
I'm starting to wonder if the O-Line will ever be good again; it's been bad for like ten years now save a good left tackle here and there.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:08 PM ^
be fair to say that 2016 o-line was the 3rd best Michigan o-line of the last 10 years?
Take from it what you will.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^
That's probably true. And it's horrifically depressing.
2006 had a great OL. 2011 was pretty good by the end of the year, bowl game notwithstanding, but was average for the first half of the season. 2016 was good until it faced real defenses. Everything else was pretty awful.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:20 PM ^
"... it's been bad for like sixteen years now ..."
FTFY
Except for a few standouts (Jake Long, David Baas, Taylor Lewan, David Molk, etc.) it's been so-so or worse since the Hutchinson-Backus-Williams line.
Someone recently posted the picture from a 2006/2007 OSU game where the Buckeyes blow through the line. The misery extends past Hoke and RichRod into the Lloyd years.
October 9th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^
Lloyd didn’t always have lines of the Hutchinson vintage, but even his later lines were much better than every one we’ve seen since. With the 2006 line on this team, Michigan is a contender for the Conference.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:02 PM ^
Against Purdue and MSU in consecutive games, Michigan has given up 8 sacks. Those teams, coming into those games, had combined for 10 on the year.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:05 PM ^
The stat he uses and the eye test suggests major o-line problems. Skill development/talent problem at RT. Communication/missed assignment problems everywhere.
Lots of sacks. Also too many no-gain or TFLs on runs.
One small but relevant caveat, at least on the inside run plays: The play selection has been terrible. And that is on who ever is the main play caller (Drevno?).
Opposing Ds are usually playing stacked boxes and/or LB crashing gaps before even waiting for a read.
Insisting on so many inside runs on 1st and 2nd down increases the negative running plays. And it also makes for too many 3rd and long obvious passing downs, which increases the sack number.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^
Why is all the blame on the OL when there is no reason to believe that the WRs or 2nd string QB are not just as culpable?
October 9th, 2017 at 2:11 PM ^
Not to mention our RBs do a horseshit job of picking up blocks. I know it’s all the norm to rip on the OL right now, but I’m not sure why we need to say things like “look no further than he OL sucking as to why our offense can’t move the ball.” Guess what, RBs, QBs, and WRs have also sucked this year and our offensive game plan/playcalling has been awful too. I will absolutely look past the OL sucking and I will see that the entire unit is pretty pathetic
October 9th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
Because it is clear by now that our o-line is one of the worst in NCAA. That is hard to do when you have a couple of future NFL guys in there. The fact that we had so many seniors and NFL squad guys last year and only barely managed to be average should have been a big clue that we were in a serious trouble this year.
October 9th, 2017 at 3:36 PM ^
Your hottest of hot takes is shitty. Michigan had the 11th best points per game average in the nation last year, best in the B10
October 9th, 2017 at 4:06 PM ^
Your take is a bit shallow.
If you look at the same sacks allowed and TFL's allowed last year, we were 27th and 24th (similar to MSU) respectively, in FBS, at best, slightly above average.
The fact that we had seniors in skill positions and Peppers masked a lot of things.
October 9th, 2017 at 10:18 PM ^
Well yes, if you only look at tackles for loss and sacks, you could say that. But that’s waaaaaaay more shallow than actually looking at how the offense performed. Mediocre offensive lines would have plenty of trouble scoring 40 points per game.
Using sacks and tackles for loss as a measuring stick for an offensive line completely ignores tight ends, fullbacks, and running backs responsibilities in the blocking scheme. It’s like saying a baseball player who doesn’t get RBIs is not a good run producer. Ian Kinsler had 52 RBIs this year. Did he have that few because he can’t produce runs? Or was it because 20 of his 22 homeruns were solo homeruns? The entire tigers offense sucked at producing runs, not just Kinsler.
Our offense sucked last Saturday and the offensive line wasn’t good. But to take an arbitrary stat and come to a conclusion is not very good analysis
October 9th, 2017 at 5:07 PM ^
44th in the run game will not do you much good against elite teams unless you have a Heisman-candidate QB. The OL/run game was decent last year but not good enough to bail us out when our QB made some ill-timed mistakes.
October 9th, 2017 at 10:24 PM ^
Florida State, Wisconsin, and USC all averaged fewer rushing yards per game than us last year. All of those teams ended up in th top 10 at the end of the year. And we were 33rd, not 44th.
October 9th, 2017 at 1:21 PM ^
What's the percentage of those numbers come from the right side of the line?
October 9th, 2017 at 1:24 PM ^
You don't need to tell me about enemies breaking through the line. I know it's bad.