Were NOT going 8-4. (Counter expectation thread)
Is that you The Knowledge???
The sole loss being Wisconsin.
but when I do, I predict undefeated.
It's posts like this one that confuse me. Have you not been paying attention the last 14 years? Michigan hasn't done much other than beat up bad teams and lose big games since 2003.
I hope you're right, but I just don't see it.
Here. Have an upvote. Dammit.
Irrational optimism is a huge part of sports fandom. Even if there's only one indicator that we could be good, that's enough to believe in for some people. Not criticizing, I am irrationally optimistic. It's just more fun that way (until it suddenly isn't).
If you met our boys you'd think different. We don't have average players here anymore. We don't think average. Every year is championship or bust. That's how is should have always been. You tell a Rashan that it's cool if we lose 4 games. He will slap the shit out of you. We don't have losers in this program and Coach Harbaugh is the ultimate competitor. We will go 11-1. We will win the B1G.
than last year because of depth and better talent taking over.
As many have said, it comes down to four games:
Florida - Assuming it's Franks that wins the job, I like a Don Brown defense against a first year QB. I just see our defense dominating that game. I'm sure Florida will have a good defense as well, they usually do, but they lost a lot of talent off of last year's defense. This will be a good first test for our young offense, and I think we do enough to get the W.
PSU - I'm just not buying them. They remind me so much of 2011 Michigan, riding the talents of a great player and a lot of luck to a record that didn't accurately reflect the team's quality. I think we'll handle Barkley as we've done every time we've gone against him, however I am worried about their "fuck it, go deep" offense against our young and inexperienced secondary. If we have problems back there, PSU could win a lot of 50/50 balls and score a lot of points. I trust Brown to neutralize Moorhead's offense, and Harbaugh vs Franklin is the biggest mismatch in this game. I think we pull this one out.
Wiscy - I think this is the one we're most likely to lose. I see a game much like last year's, a defensive struggle decided by one or two plays. Wiscy's offense is so unimpressive, Hornibrook seems like such a limited QB and they lost their top 2 RBs from what was a mediocre running game. They do return some nice pieces in the passing game. But their defense will once again be fantastic and I think they'll slow us down enough to get the win in this one.
OSU - Youth and inexperience will no longer be an issue. This team will be essentially a year older, having gone through some tough battles and developed some steel in their spine. I think our DL dominates their OL again and limits their offense, just like last year. The problem is that they will once again have a DL that will get a lot of pressure on Speight/Peters/whomever, so our QB will have to handle the pressure better than they did last year. They lost their entire ballhawking secondary, so that should help, but if we can limit the turnovers (and get a better shake from the officials, which we should being at home) I think we do enough to get the win in this one.
Overall, I've seen 10-2 a lot and I think that seems fair. 10-2 with winning 3 of the big 4 games would be a great season IMO, and set us up for a national title run next year.
If they beat OSU and make the BTC.
If it is 10-2 with losses to OSU and another B10 team and not another conference championship visit, then it is not a great season. Just another very good season.
This is so true.
To be frank, I really don't care much about beating Florida.
If we were to beat the Gators and Badgers, but fall to Penn State and Ohio State to finish third again in the East, that would be satisfactory, but not a good season.
is Hogwash. A lot of dudes hedging.
I'm saying!
Too many gut punches during the RR and Hoke years have taken the steel out of a lot fan's spines to where they will debate all day why we won't win more than 9 games this season.
Ohio State was supposed to take a step back last season yet look what happened.
It's anyones guess as to how this Michigan team will produce on the field.
Bottom line is it comes down to coaching and raw talent. Check and check.
2015 MSU and 2016 OSU are the two most poorly one-sided officiated games in college football history. I don't see any reason with this team and schedule that we don't go at least 11-1 in the regular season.
I started off skeptical but by the end... it moved.
Road losses @PSU and @Wisconsin.
Everyone else...TRAIN PAIN!!!!!!
I would say Michigan will be the underdog at PSU and our D line will dominate PSU's junky OL. WI has a better OL and we may lose a close one. We need to beat OSU!
Only game that matters is OSU and Michigan will not win that game. You can Raback it and BKFinest it. If Michigan does win I won't post for 3 months starting on November 28th.
Want to come over for "the game"?
the impact that Rashan is going to have this year. Dude is going to be a freak with one year under his belt and more PT. 4 sacks against Florida - you heard it here first.
But I'll take 4 if we beat osu. This year will be very interesting. Hopes are high. Potential is unlimited. All about execution on the offense. It will be a very good season.
GO BLUE!!
Expectations are above the reality bar here IMO. 8-4 would be fine with a win over osu (and Sparty)
The problem there is that we would have to massively shit the bed to beat OSU and still lose 4 games. Can't say it won't happen, but that would be hugely disappointing.
Harbaugh is the man, but I have been worried about how we have played BIG Ten games on the road. Im predicting losses @ Fl (Arlington), PSU (whiteout) , Wiscy, and possibly a slip up @ Goofers or Ind.
I did not hear it here first. My post from over a week ago:
We're going to be 4-0 against Florida after September 2. We're going to be 4-0 against Franklin led PSU after October 21. We could drop the game against the Badgers. 10-1 going into The Game and Harbaugh comes through for his first win against Meyer. We win the rematch against the Badgers in the B1G Championship Game and head to our first playoff appearance.
BKFinest that shit.
“Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There's no better rule.”
- Mr. Jaggers (Great Expectations by Charles Dickens)
Excerpted from the B1G Expectations: 2017 Preseason Total Wins Analysis posted in March. Michigan expected wins per S&P+ was 9.03; per FPI, 8.29.
Here is a link to the same set of charts based on 2017 FPI B1GE overall results.
Probability is not evidence.
Sorry, say what you will but I have us going 12-0. Most of the resins you listed plus I say we'll have the best defense in the conference. Top five in the country. The secondary is my biggest concern and I think it will be solid by mid season. I think we'll have the best offensive line that we've had in a decade and be able to run the ball, at last. Could go on and on. Bottom line, not losing the last game of the year. Not losing to Franklin or in Madison. I think the opener will be tough because of new guys but in the end we'll pull away for something like a 28-17 win. Call me a homer , call me insane. This is the year we've been waiting for. College football is youth and nobody prepares players like this staff.
are in the bottom of your bong.
I also think Speight will be injured early with this young O-line. I like Peters (way) better and his high ceiling, and would start him. But, he's way to green to win big games on the road right now, this is why Jim has Speight as the starter.
It's that time of year! Where the fanbase divides into realists and homers. This thread is for the homers. Realist use statistics and past events to determine what might happen in the future and Homer's use wishful-thinking or we'll win just because it's the team I root for. I would love to be wrong but Michigan has the least number of returning starters in all of the Power 5 conferences. On paper Hoke and Rodriguez shouldn't have lost as many games as they did but here we are. Yes I believe Jim Harbaugh is a worldbreaker but to say that Michigan is only going to lose one game and make the playoffs is baffling. There is nothing there to support the claim but wishful thoughts. Let's just hope the young talent puts it together quickly.
In fandom!
Some of you act like you are paid to be a realist. If your Michigan damn it, say 12-0!
Why? You're going to be wrong FAR more often than the realists. It's not like I don't cheer for Michigan as much as anybody else just because I don't expect them to win every game.
"I bet those chocolate tickets make the chocolate taste terrible..." "Let him sleep, let him have one last dream..."
I just don't agree with called my people, other fans of Michigan, a homer for saying 11-1 or 12-1.
Suck it realists.
BTW, I am a realist everywhere else, except Michigan Football.
Speight has shown he cant win (big) games on the road...yes? Why would that change with all new WRs and O-line? Defense will be great again, but with Kinnel the most experienced defensive back and the two-deep depth chart recently was ranked by Phil Steele as the least experienced out of 130 teams in the FBS there will be a drop off.
Because Speight will be better than he was last year and his backup is equally talented if not better. Because our running back group will be better than last year. Because the TE group will be formidable despite losing Butt. Because although our WR group is young, they are deep and more talented than last year. Because our O line is more talented than they were last year.
Harbaugh will have our youngsters ready for the challenge. The only thing that worries me is teams going deep and picking on our young secondary. Florida has a WR in Calloway and our youngsters will be tested early and often. This should give us an idea of where they are. Hopefully Don Brown has a defensive scheme to neutralize him and we don't get too many pass interference penalties.
I hope that I am wrong but I honestly don't believe that this is the year for it. This is absolutely a rebuilding year. You honestly can't replace over 20 people on all facets of the game and expect perfection. 2018 is when we can start looking for that because these young talented players will then have a season under their belt.
Clearly you don't believe in the program or the staff. 4th year qb....stable of backs....production at WR and multiple 5 star recievers....a slew of talented TEs......upperclassmen and All B1G guys on the line and extremely talented youngins. Defensively we have 2 potential AA on the dline.....2 or our 3 best LBs returning talent wise......McCray being an All Big guy....and our secondary is loaded with 4 star talent....oh yeah...and Don Brown and Jim Harbaugh. But hey....3 or 4 losses somehow......Stop.
I do have faith in Harbaugh, we are a year away from 11-1 /12-0 pedictions. If we had a really good seasoned QB that could bring the diffence to the big games, yea mabe than this year. I get it - we all want 12-0, not happening till an upgrade at QB. Not with one of Hokes leftovers.
Understand that these 4 and 5 star players have never done anything on a college field. It's a lot faster game than high school. They will be going up against players that might not be as talented but have a hell of a lot more experience. And if you've never played football before experience means a lot.
The thing about homerism is it can lead to a lack of appreciation of the team's actual accomplishments on the field, in the face of adversity -- wins are taken for granted in games when they should not be, and nothing is learned from losses.
Realists can appreciate it when the team rises to the challenges they face, because they've made an effort to understand those challenges. For me, it's much more satisfying to win a game I don't automatically assume the team will win, even though I'll also lose more sleep than a homer might when Michigan loses a game it -- realistically -- should have won.
The homerist can rest easy in righteous indignation -- us realists have to wrestle with our own failures in understanding the world. In this case, it's a particularly difficult task -- understanding the dynamics of a complex team based on limited information -- but that's what makes it fun.
You can think Michigan is going to win 11+ games every year all you want but some people actually like to look at sports with some degree of impartiality and realize "hey, this probably isn't our time but we should still win 8 or 9 games." There's nothing wrong with that and the idea that people should be shamed for not blindly buying into the extreme homer perspective is idiotic.
8-4 and 9-3 are good seasons. You act like it's slander to not predict a trip to the playoffs.
Root for Iowa with that garbage weak mentality. If you lose 3 or 4 games during the course of a season it is what it is. Going into it expecting that with what we have under contract and what is in our locker room wearing our colors is ridiculous. In fact it's more than that. It's WEAK. This is Michigan and Harbaugh is the coach of a lifetime. I know some ate scarred by past mediocrity but it's a new day. We have more in our locker room than 11 out of 12 of the teams we play. Lace up and play ball. All this pessimism weak assery is as infectious as it is revolting. Michigan should never enter a season expecting to lose the only 4 ranked damn games they play. We recruit top 5 talent for Christ sake and only play one other team that does the same. People need to increase the caffeine and take a tour of our program and meet some of these guys before treating like we're running some type of feel good Northwestern operation here.
If our players are "infected" by attitudes of random posters on a blog, we've got much deeper problems than pessimistic fans.
For some reason, what you said was very well put . . . Go Blue
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