Michigan No. 22 in ESPN's Way-too-early MBB Top 25
Too low IMO. The biggest issue is going to be guard play, which can ruin a team.
Every year someone says this and we're a middle of the pack type team. What makes you think it's too low. Where's the huge difference from this current team to next year's team that makes it a Top 15 type team?
McGary, GRIII, Stauskas, Spike, and LeVert aren't walking through those doors.
We were a borderline top 25 team this year WHEN our PG was playing out of his mind and elevated ourselves to the bottom of the top 25.
What makes you think we should be higher? We lost that PG and Irvin, we add Matthews into the rotation. That's really about it.
I don't think anyone is in a position to say we should be higher unless Mo Bamba signs.
This seems just right until we figure out what kind of a team we have. This team could be very "meh" or it could be a serious Sweet 16 contender again. But it's not like football last year where we went into the year thinking "this team should be top 5."
to be whining about being a few spots too low in a way too early ranking.
We played like a Top 10 team in the tournament and the more games I watched, we could have won it all had we played our best.
We lost by a pt to a Final 4 team on a day where we didn't play well.
If we had a solid option at the 1, this team would be worthy of a top 10- 15 ranking.
X just didn't show me enough to think that spot is secure and not sure if Brooks will be ready.
We should probably be around 20ish. Maybe slightly higher.
If you read the article, they are making the assumption that DJ leaves for the NBA. They likely have us in the top 15 if he returns (which I think is at least 50-50)
Not to mention whatever improvement we see in Wagner, Wilson, Davis and Teske, along with a freshman class that will almost certainly contribute more than this year's did. Plus continuing improvement in team defense. We have a lot more potential to be better next year than just the addition of Matthews.
I like all those guys, but you are just assuming they will get better. Some players improve, others stay the same, others regress.
Zak Irvin was the perfect example of this case. Just a total rollercoaster of play.
Irvin went through a very rough shooting slump in February, but overall he had probably his strongest overall season at Michigan. He actually shot a career high from the floor this season (45.3%) and definitely played his best defense.
You make it sound like those are terrible assumptions. In general, players improve. Who has regressed under Beilein? All I can think of is Doyle, but he had sleep apnea. A few players have stayed about the same, but most have improved, sometimes dramatically. Did you not see Walton, Wagner, and Wilson play last year?
Also, it seems like things clicked on defense besides just playing with more fire. I wonder if we could see even more improvement and earlier on next year with another year of Donlon.
Take this year's team and do the following: 1) remove Walton / Irving; 2) bring back DJ and Wagner as more seasoned dominators; 3) add Charles Matthews from UK; and 4) Hand over the point to Simpson. While the graduated seniors will be hugely missed, that does not look like a worse team than the one that made the end-of-season run. Before the Sweet Sixteen, we were re-seeded at #5. All that does not add up to #22 to me. But that's good -- let it give the guys a chip on their shoulder.
I see from the article that ESPN is assuming that DJ is going pro. That would account for the #22 ranking. Sure hope they are wrong.
I think DJ and Wagner need another year of physical development. I think they would get their lunch handed to them by grown ass men.
The way I look at it:
1. Miami is ranked above UM and they look like garbage.
2. The lineups are a net positive over 2016.
2016
PG - Walt
SG - MAAR
SF - Irvin
PF - Wilson
C - Moe
PG - X (net minus)
SG - MAAR (positive)
SF - Mathews (steady)
PF - Wilson (positive)
C - Moe (positive)
bench: robinson (positive), teske (positive over Donnal). Freshman (net positive)
3. MO BAMBA! (positive)
4. Profit. (positive)
I hope the Irvin/Matthews transition is steady. I don't know if that can be taken as a given.
Same here. As long at Mathews plays good D we should be fine.
IMO. Teske being better than Donnal is a huge stretch given how far he has to go just to be serviceable (although between he and Davis, there's a chance one of them can be a backup big). Robinson is who he is at this point so I'd go with a "steady" there rather than a positive.
And the negative of going from Walton to X could be large enough to cancel out all the incremental positives, although that's probably a worst-case scenario.
There's pretty much no chance that teske/davis is worse than donnal.
"We were a borderline top 25 team this year WHEN our PG was playing out of his mind and elevated ourselves to the bottom of the top 25."
Inaccurate.
Yes, that is pretty clearly refuted by the fact that we 1) won the BTT, beating two eventual Sweet 16 opponents (Purdue and Wisconsin); 2) beat the #2 seed in our region (Louisville) and 3) took a Final Four team (Oregon) to the buzzer.
For a second I thought this was for football and I couldn't figure out why the hell Sparty would be ranked at all.
The original title left out 'MBB'.
I saw the best comments of my generation destroyed by editing an OP...
DJ Wilson a foregone conclusion to leave for the draft? I have not heard this anywhere, nor would it be a wise decision. He's not ready yet. Consistency is not there yet and he too often shies away from contact. I expect him to be an absolute beast next year in Ann Arbor, and he'll end up a 1st round pick rather than 2nd round (at best) this year.
I think he's shown enough tools to be selected late in the first round. And you don't stay young forever, so understand if he leaves. He even said it was 50/50 a few weeks ago.
I guess the silver lining is that if he leaves this helps with Mo Bamba, however small our chances are.
Why don't you actually read the latest Mo Bamba interviews? He clearly states he's a one and done and was asked point blank if who returns or not matters. The answer is a BIG YES.
It seems like to me who goes and stays factors into your deal…How much of a factor is that?
Absolutely. It’s a pretty big factor.
http://www.scout.com/college/basketball/recruiting/story/1766253-what-s…
If he wants to be one and done, he'd be crazy not to factor it in who else is playing his position. I don't think that DJ as a 4 would factor in too much - at least, it shouldn't. Bamba is a five all the way, whether he thinks he's a stretch four or not.
Wagner being around might factor into his decision and that would be understandable. But Wagner can play the four two. It'd actually be a better position for him. So there's enough minutes to go around for all three.
I could see it being
5. Bamba 25 min / Wagner 15 min
4. DJ 25 min / Wagner 10 min / Robinson 5 min
3. Matthews 30 min / Robinson 5 min / DJ 5 min (for our beast mode jumbo lineups)
I agree, good point.
From the way Mo describes Michigan big mens game(dribbling, shooting), it seems like he like playing forward but eh who knows.
I didn't say who stays or goes in general (at UM, Kentucky, Duke, Texas) doesn't matter. I said Wilson in particular staying or going doesn't matter to him. Baumgardner just interviewed him a couple days ago and dude laughed when he even suggested it.
And again, he's going to start wherever he goes, whatever position that he (or Wilson) ends up playing.
He just said in multiple interviews that who goes and stays is very relevant in his decision making.
So Wilson, who plays Bambas position of choice, staying or leaving obviously IS very relevant.
And why don't you link Baumgardners interview?
And I highly doubt a high school kid would start in front of Wilson or Wagner no matter how good he is, and Bamba knows it. Thats why IMO he's delaying his decision until at least May, when he knows exactly whos leaving and staying.
His chances of getting into the first round this year are not good.
His chances of getting into the first round next year are excellent. And plenty of teams draft seniors these days.
People have a dated frame of reference on that count. That has changed in the last 3-5 years.
the rookie pay scale goes up next year. Even if he isn't a lottery pick next year, he will still have a better first contract as long as he goes round 1.
I personally feel he and Wagner are still a year away.
They're kind of like these Carolina guys who are all fringe 1st round players and came back.
I think both can improve greatly with one more year...then leave. Even then though, neither is a lottery pick in my mind. But coming back for that final year (RS Senior for Wilson and true Senior for Wagner) doesn't do much if I'm them.
I think they take a big leap from this year to next year and can solidify themselves in the bottom of the 1st round in 2018. But I don't think either will ever be a lottery pick and coming back for their senior years (2 years) would just be for Michigan and a chance to win. I don't see much growth in that, in fact, they probably slide into round 2 for being a year older. But if they wanted to do it, hey, you only do this college basketball thing once. Live it up if you enjoy it.
but Tom Dienhart put us 8th in our own conference.
I'm sorry but why is it a foregone conclusion that Wilson is gonna leave?
I can't find a current mock draft that has either DJ or Moe in the top 60. Bridges is slotted for 11-13.
only project underclassmen that have declared or are highly likely to declare and be lottery picks. Until he declares, most mocks will ignore him. Doesn't at all mean he's not a top 60 prospects to scouts and GMs.
I don't get the point of these top 25's when the recruiting cycle is not over and NBA decisions by and large haven't been made yet.
Clicks, as said above. But you're right, this is kinda ridiculous.
If they predicted us to suck, I bet you'd be calling it the gospel truth and citing it in your Daily Reminder Why John Beilein Needs to be Fired bulletins.