Freshman Production of Composite 5 Star WRs
We are all excited about finally getting a big time 5 star WR on campus. One of the things we have not had in a while, and a thing that can dynamically change an offense. I have been wondering what kind of impact DPJ might have his freshman year, seeing as true freshman can sometimes have a hard time making a huge impact. I decided to research the freshman years of all the composite 5 star WRs since the start of composite recruiting rankings, which was the year 2000.
First lets look at the composite 5 Star WRs for 2017.
2017
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan - #1 WR, #11 Composite
Tee Higgins, Clemson - #2 WR, #19 Comp
Jerry Jeudy, Alabama - #3 WR, #21 Comp
Joseph Lewis, USC - #4 WR, #31 Comp
Below is a chart of the results for the Freshmen years of the players from 2000-2016.
*Comp is their overall composite ranking in the country
*GS stands for Games Started
Random Thoughts at the bottom
Name |
School |
Rank |
Recs |
Rec Yds |
Rec TDs |
Misc |
Awards |
2016 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Demetris Robertson |
California |
#1 WR, #14 Comp |
50 |
767 |
7 |
202 KR Yds |
Freshman All American |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Calvin Ridley |
Alabama |
#1 WR, #11 Comp |
89 |
1045 |
7 |
11 GS |
Freshman All American |
George Campbell |
Florida State |
#2 WR, #18 Comp |
3 |
42 |
0 |
0 GS |
|
Deon Cain |
Clemson |
#3 WR, #19 Comp |
34 |
582 |
5 |
0 GS |
|
Christian Kirk |
Texas A&M |
#4 WR, #25 Comp |
80 |
1009 |
7 |
11 GS, 726 Return Yds, 2 TDs |
Freshman All American |
Tyron Johnson |
LSU |
#5 WR, #27 Comp |
9 |
150 |
2 |
0 GS |
|
2014 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Speedy Noil |
Texas A&M |
#1 WR, #8 Comp |
46 |
583 |
5 |
5 GS, 825 Return Yds |
|
Malachai Dupre |
LSU |
#2 WR, #17 Comp |
14 |
318 |
5 |
2 GS |
|
Ermon Lane |
FSU |
#3 WR, #24 Comp |
13 |
267 |
1 |
2 GS |
|
KD Cannon |
Baylor |
#4 WR, #30 Comp |
58 |
1030 |
8 |
7 GS |
Freshman All American |
2013 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Laquon Treadwell |
Ole Miss |
#1 WR, #14 Comp |
72 |
608 |
5 |
12 GS |
Freshman All American |
Robert Foster |
Alabama |
#2 WR, #23 Comp |
|
|
|
Redshrited |
|
Robbie Rhodes |
Baylor |
#3 WR, #28 Comp |
10 |
157 |
0 |
0 GS |
|
2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dorial Green-Beckham |
Missouri |
#1 WR, #1 Comp |
28 |
395 |
5 |
Suspended for 2 Games |
|
Stefon Diggs |
Maryland |
#2 WR, #8 Comp |
54 |
848 |
6 |
934 Return Yds, 2 TDs |
Freshman All American |
Thomas Johnson |
Texas A&M |
#3 WR, #33 Comp |
30 |
339 |
1 |
Left Program after 10 Games |
|
2011 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
George Farmer |
USC |
#1 WR, #8 Comp |
4 |
42 |
0 |
3 KR, 59 KR Yds |
|
Jarvis Landry |
LSU |
#2 WR, #14 Comp |
4 |
42 |
0 |
1 KR, 11 KR Yds, 1 PR, 31 PR Yds |
|
Sammy Watkins |
Clemson |
#3 WR, #19 Comp |
82 |
1219 |
12 |
826 KR Yds, 1 TD |
Freshman All American |
Trey Metoyer |
Oklahoma |
#4 WR, #21 Comp |
|
|
|
Prep School |
|
2010 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kyle Prater |
USC |
#1 WR, #11 Comp |
|
|
|
Redshirted due to Injury |
|
Mike Davis |
Texas |
#2 WR, #13 Comp |
47 |
478 |
2 |
5 GS, 46 KR Yds |
|
Da’Rick Rogers |
Tennessee |
#3 WR, #16 Comp |
11 |
167 |
2 |
16 Carries, 117 Yds, 298 KR Yds |
|
Darius White |
Texas |
#4 WR, #27 Comp |
1 |
5 |
0 |
48 KR Yds |
|
2009 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reuben Randle |
LSU |
#1 WR, #8 Comp |
11 |
173 |
2 |
4 GS |
|
Andre Debose |
UF |
#2 WR, #15 Comp |
|
|
|
Redshirted due to Injury |
|
Marlon Brown |
Georgia |
#3 WR, #26 Comp |
2 |
15 |
0 |
|
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Julio Jones |
Alabama |
#1 WR, #3 Comp |
58 |
924 |
4 |
21 KR Yds |
Freshman All American |
AJ Green |
Georgia |
#2 WR, #7 Comp |
56 |
963 |
8 |
4 Carries, 61 Yds |
Freshman All American |
DeAndre Brown |
Southern Miss |
#3 WR, #12 Comp |
67 |
1117 |
12 |
|
Freshman All American |
Jonathan Baldwin |
Pitt |
#4 WR, #13 Comp |
18 |
404 |
3 |
3 GS |
|
Michael Floyd |
Notre Dame |
#5 WR, #14 Comp |
48 |
719 |
7 |
|
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Terrance Toliver |
LSU |
#1 WR, #8 Comp |
10 |
249 |
3 |
2 GS, 3 Carries, 36 Yds |
|
Arrelious Benn |
Illinois |
#2 WR, #12 Comp |
54 |
676 |
2 |
32 Carries, 158 Yds, 280 Kr Yds, 1 TD |
Big 10 Freshman of the Year |
Deonte Thompson |
UF |
#3 WR, #21 Comp |
|
|
|
Redshirted |
|
2006 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Percy Harvin |
UF |
#1 WR, #2 Comp |
41 |
428 |
3 |
34 Carries, 427 Yds, 2 TDs |
Freshman All American |
Vidal Hazelton |
USC |
#2 WR, #3 Comp |
1 |
8 |
0 |
1 Carry, 7 Yds |
|
2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Patrick Turner |
USC |
#1 WR, #2 Comp |
12 |
170 |
2 |
|
|
Derrick Williams |
PSU |
#2 WR, #4 Comp |
22 |
289 |
1 |
22 Carries, 105 Yds, 3 TDs, 274 KR Yds |
|
Fred Rouse |
FSU |
#3 WR, #5 Comp |
6 |
114 |
1 |
204 Return Yds |
|
DeSean Jackson |
California |
#4 WR, #22 Comp |
38 |
601 |
7 |
8 Carries, 48 Yards, 1 PR for a 49 Yd TD |
|
2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Early Doucet |
LSU |
#1 WR, #5 Comp |
18 |
257 |
2 |
1 PR, 16 Yds |
Freshman All-SEC |
Fred Davis |
USC |
#2 WR, #14 Comp |
4 |
30 |
0 |
|
|
Cameron Colvin |
Oregon |
#3 WR, #16 Comp |
14 |
191 |
2 |
1 GS, 2 Carries, 7 Yds |
|
Xavier Carter |
LSU |
#4 WR, #17 Comp |
5 |
118 |
2 |
3 Carries, 7 Yds, 203 KR Yds |
|
Calvin Johnson |
Georgia Tech |
#5 WR, #23 Comp |
48 |
837 |
7 |
3 Carries, 10 Yds |
Freshman All American |
Lance Leggett |
Miami |
#6 WR, #24 Comp |
17 |
349 |
4 |
6 GS |
|
Dwayne Jarrett |
USC |
#7 WR, #35 Comp |
55 |
849 |
13 |
8 GS |
Freshman All American |
2003 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Whitney Lewis |
USC |
#1 WR, #2 Comp |
|
|
|
Redshirted due to Academics |
|
Andre Caldwell |
UF |
#2 WR, #7 Comp |
19 |
174 |
0 |
1 Carry, 3 Yds, 454 KR Yds |
Freshman All-SEC |
Chad Jackson |
UF |
#3 WR, #23 Comp |
3 |
38 |
1 |
2 KR for 47 Yds |
|
Robert Meachum |
Tennessee |
#4 WR, #25 Comp |
|
|
|
Redshirted due to Injury |
|
2002 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ryan Moore |
Miami |
#1 WR, #3 Comp |
1 |
29 |
0 |
Redshirted after 3 games |
|
DiShon Platt |
FSU |
#2 WR, #18 Comp |
|
|
|
Academic Bust, left school |
|
Marquis Johnson |
Texas |
#3 WR, #24 Comp |
|
|
|
Prep School |
|
Ben Obomanu |
Auburn |
#4 WR, #31 Comp |
17 |
224 |
3 |
|
|
2001 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roscoe Crosby |
Clemson |
#1 WR, #3 Comp |
23 |
296 |
3 |
|
|
Reggie Williams |
Washington |
#2 WR, #4 Comp |
55 |
973 |
3 |
|
Freshman All American |
Dominic Robinson |
FSU |
#3 WR, #15 Comp |
|
|
|
16 PR, 162 PR Yds |
|
Michael Clayton |
LSU |
#4 WR, #19 Comp |
47 |
754 |
6 |
2 Carries, 35 Yds, 1 TD |
Freshman All-SEC |
Airese Currie |
Clemson |
#5 WR, #41 Comp |
17 |
315 |
1 |
4 Carries, -4 Yds |
|
2000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Charles Rogers |
MSU |
#1 WR, #3 Comp |
|
|
|
Redshirted due to Academics |
|
BJ Johnson |
Texas |
#2 WR, #7 Comp |
41 |
698 |
3 |
6 Carries, 29 Yds |
|
Roy Wiliams |
Texas |
|
40 |
809 |
8 |
2 carries, 75 yds, 2 TDs |
Big 12 Freshman of the year |
Willie Dixon |
Miami |
#4 WR, #27 Comp |
|
|
|
Academic Bust, left school |
|
Johnnie Morant |
Syracuse |
#5 WR, #30 Comp |
|
|
|
Played in 3 games, no stats |
|
Sloan Thomas |
Texas |
#6 WR, #35 Comp |
9 |
208 |
3 |
|
|
Including the 2017 class, there has been a total of 71 Composite 5 Star WRs since 2000.
71 Total WRs
Breakdown by School
LSU – 8
USC – 8
Texas – 6
Clemson – 5
FSU – 5
UF – 5
Alabama – 4
Miami – 3
TAMU – 3
Baylor – 2
Cal – 2
Georgia – 2
Tennessee – 2
1 Each - Auburn, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St., Missouri, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Pitt, Penn St., Southern Miss, Syracuse, Washington
Breakdown by conference
SEC - 27
ACC - 16
Pac12 - 12
Big12 - 9
Big10 - 5
Other - 2
Random Observations
-DPJ will be the first for UM.
-Insane that LSU has had the most with such anemic passing offenses.
-No BIG 10 School has had more than 1.
-No school north of Tennessee has had more than 1.
-Ohio State has 0.
-14 Freshman All Americans, which is 20% of the total.
-8 players redshirted
-4 players didn’t qualify academically and never attended the school
That means 59 players played their freshman years.
21 had over 500 yds Receiving
19 had atleast 5 Receiving Tds
21 did some return duties
DPJ & Calvin Ridley share the exact same ranking; #1 WR, #11 Composite. I think I would settle for Ridley's production.
Yes sign me up for those freshman numbers
That makes a world of difference when entering into college as a 18 years old as opposed to 21 years old.
I would throw out Calvin Ridley out of the data since he's an outliner in terms of age.
Yes, he turned 21 during his true freshman season. He only was allowed to play like 3 games his senior year in high school due to age restrictions.
Hey get your facts and pertinent information out of here... Im riding the unsubstantiated hype train all the way to the college playoff baby !
This is interesting. I would think DPJ might be at a slight advantage compared to the field here with regards to stat potential because two graduating seniors have departed. Should get lots of playing time.
Well since we know that DPJ has qualified and will not redshirt, you're telling me that there's about a 36% chance that he grabs at least 500yds receiving and a 24% chance that he earns Freshman All American honors. I like his chances there.
March 29th, 2017 at 11:35 AM ^
It's probably a big higher in that Speight has to represent an above average quarterback for receivers on the list, even at great schools like that, just from having played well last year and being under Harbaugh.
Great rundown, glad to see this.
There are some funny ratings in there (Fred Davis was a higher-ranked prospect than Calvin Johnson, huh). But a lot of these guys were really good.
I don't know that it's reasonable for us to expect Ridley-level production, as the rest of the offense will not function at the level of Alabama's, but 22 guys exceeded 35 catches (Jehu Chesson's total for last year) and that seems reasonable to expect. With a possibility for a lot more.
As others have stated, DPJ won't be playing behind another established #1 guy. If picks things up well enough he could have a monster season/career. The names on that list include some disappointments, but it is peppered with guys like Ridley, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Sammy Watkins, even Laquon Treadwell: Guys who made huge contributions as freshman and were dominant for their entire careers.
I would enjoy that.
March 28th, 2017 at 11:54 PM ^
Ugh one of the biggest disappointments of 2016 was Chesson's production. Oh well.
Ridley's numbers were somewhat inflated by the fact that Lane Kiffin likes to force-feed his top WR the ball. He did it at USC with Robert Woods (111 catches in 2011) and Marqise Lee (118 catches in 2012), and at Alabama with Amari Cooper (124 catches in 2014). Put in that context, Ridley's 89 catches as a freshman in 2015 aren't that surprising, especially since that team didn't have any other established WRs (Ardarius Stewart was the second-leading receiver in 2015, and he had 12 career catches before that year).
I mean, Ridley was also 20 years old when he started his true freshman year and turned 21 during the season. That's a big difference usually at that age when comparing to other 18 year olds.
Thanks for crunching the numbers.
Main takeaway I get is that based on past 5*, it's pretty much as likely we'll get nothing at all from DPJ next year as it is he'll become a frosh AA. Patience.
That said, IMO it's more likely he'll more resemble the successful guys than the washouts:
- He seems like a great kid and excellent student, so off-field washout is unlikely.
- Harbaugh and our coaching staff should find ways to use him, even if he's not fully ready to take a starring role.
- Losing our top receivers to graduation presents opportunity, but we have plenty of young guys competing for snaps/catches.
One other thing to note: Almost all the Frosh AA's went on to become big-time NFL stars. Just shows there are a rare few guys who are just destined for greatness. Let's hope DPJ is one of them!
a ton of washouts there bud.
By my count, 37 of the 71 listed failed to achieve 20 catches in their freshman seasons, putting them below the 2 catches per game I am arbitrarily setting (with no grounds whatsoever) as a barometer for a significant contribution in a season.
I didn't count, but a significant number of those, probably a majority, did not play due to redshirts or discipline or injuries.
"Washout" might not be a good word here, because it's possible for a guy to have a nothing first year and achieve later success. Though a lot of the misses in the first year were due to issues that persisted later on.
But from a raw numbers perspective it's not insane to suggest that there's a 50/50 shot that DPJ doesn't contribute significantly his first season. That leaves out some detail, though, since we consider DPJ failing to play to be unlikely due to his good academics and the lack of older talent ahead of him. If you take out the missed seasons and then recalculate, you can say that a decided majority of the receivers that played significantly contributed significantly as well.
March 30th, 2017 at 11:43 PM ^
March 30th, 2017 at 11:44 PM ^
of the OP and my comment is freshman production. The word "washout" was poorly chosen.
Based on the chart, ~1/3 of the 5* receivers (23/71) had 5 or fewer catches - zero or tiny production.
Almost 1/2 had fewer than 15 catches - relatively minimal contribution.
Just over half had more than 15 catches (and sometimes other production from carries or KR)
Heck, most of my post referred to my optimism that DPJ will end up on the productive side of the ledger.
My point is simply that while we all hope DPJ becomes a freshman phenom, it's a good idea to show some patience.
I see the opposite. I see that pretty much every single one that started more than half their games had incredibly productive seasons.
roy williams... wow
Yes Roy. And how insane that Texas had 3 of the 6 5 stars in that year 2000. Also says something about how that program has been recently, they have only had 3 since that year, 1 in 2002 and 2 in 2010.
man, LSU sure can sell WR snake oil to this position group. that QB play has been brutal for years but apparently, WRs want to sign up to score 17 pts/game in death valley.
Yeah they must have a hell of a pitch for WRs.
Also its crazy that Clemson has had as many 5 Star WRs as the entire Big 10 since 2000. I know they just won the title, but its not like they have been Alabama for the last decade.
Cal has had twice as many as any BIg 10 school. Cal.
Only 11 of the 71 have gone to northern schools. I guess this kind of athlete really does like playing in warm weather. Really reminds you how much of a disadvantage it is for Michigan to recruit based on their location, atleast for certain postion groups.
March 28th, 2017 at 10:30 PM ^
My first thought too. Amazing LSU and Bama even has not landed some of elite QBs. Bama can get away with it, due to sickening talent everywhere else but LSU it's gotten absurbd considering their HS talent pool to draw from.
I'm a little surprised by Ohio State's lack of 5* WRs.
I know they haven't been a powerhouse for WR talent in the last 2 decades, but I'm surprised not one of Ted Ginn, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Gonzales, Devier Posey, Corey Brown, Devin Smith or Michael Thomas were composite 5*.
As I was making the list, and seeing the names, I kepy having painful memories. Treadwell, Diggs, Watkins, Campbell, etc, it was all painful.
March 30th, 2017 at 11:42 AM ^
at least RoJo wasn't on that list.
But my number one thought going through this is whyyyyyyyy would any highly rated receiver ever go to LSU? What a waste of a crazy amount of talent.
1) A lot of talented players are from Louisiana and the Gulf coast area in general, and LSU does a great job with in-state recruiting.
2) $EC $EC $EC
A quick glance seems to indicate that as recruiting coverage got more refined, that players have started to be ranked more appropriately and we're seeing more freshmen contribute.
Somebody mentioned it above, but I think expecting him to come close to Chesson's production from last season is more than attainable. I know Bill C.'s method considers returning receiving production to be very important, but I think Crawford and DPJ are very solid replacements for Darboh and Chesson. Add in McDoom doing his hybrid slot thing and Perry hopefully coming back and there's a lot of talent at receiver.
March 29th, 2017 at 10:15 PM ^
WOW! Great info.....I wonder how well the running game was for some of the 5* that did not do well their FR year was, compared to those who had better #'s
LSU should be ashamed of itself, very ashamed
Looking forward to The Peoples Jones taking over this year. Some of the catches he made for Cass were beyond ridiculous. I'm glad that Wilton will have a guy that he can just say "whatever, fuck it." Hopefully, not in the Matt Stafford-Calvin Johnson way, but in a I have no other options way. I want Wilt to make good decisions first, which is what I feel separates winning quarterbacks from others. It's good to have a guy that will make plays for you. I think that Michigan has had speed at the WR position and Darboh and Chesson made some plays, but I think that DPJ is on another level. Really excited for what he'll bring to the table.
September 1st, 2017 at 2:27 PM ^
One thing that would be great to see is their sizes listed there as well, see if there is a correlation with readiness to contribute.
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