Lunardi has Michigan as a 6 seed in the East

Submitted by KennyHiggins on

Think we have a good shot at a 5 after today's win.  Can't wait to watch Beilein and the boys cut down the nets in my hometown.  Zak - it's your day, man.

MGoBoard
Basketball

bronxblue

March 12th, 2017 at 8:30 AM ^

I am excited the team is trending up, but it's a race between Lunardi and Palm for worst prognosticator, so I'm always a bit suspect. Two days ago he had Michigan a fringe 9 seed and could fall to 10 after beating Illinois. Now, he's jumped then basically 3 seed lines after beating two good-but-not-great teams. I still think this team is a borderline 6/7 seed, but I care much more about the matchup than the seeding at this point. Getting the winner of Syracuse/ RI and then, presumably, BAD is much more appealing than, say, being the five seed in that region and playing MTSU and then FSU.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171019

aiglick

March 12th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^

I've heard Lunardi gets more acccurate the closer to Selection Sunday because that's when he's able to talk to his insiders. That may be more for bubble teams than seed lines. I would think we're either the highest 8 or some kind of 7. It's good that Bracket Matrix has us as a 7. The interesting thing would be if we were an 8 how the team would take it. They clearly play better as the underdog. Trend is very nice though just hoping for a Friday slotting.

Joined: 11/27/2010

MGoPoints: 21418

TrueBlue2003

March 12th, 2017 at 12:53 PM ^

I'm not sure why you'd question the expertise of someone giving them a reasonable bump that is less than their bump in RPI.  HUGE difference between 3-0 v ILL, PUR, MINN and 0-1 v ILL.  That's 23-11 and a 30 RPI compared to 20-12 and a 50 RPI.  That's the textbook 6 seed compared to a 10 seed.

So yeah, winning two games against teams in the RPI top 20 on a neutral court is more than enough to push us ahead of 8-12 teams. It's the most impressive two game stretch ANY team has played in the last two days, save for Duke beating UNC and ND and Arizona beating UCLA and Oregon.  Those are both teams being considered for 1 seeds.

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 38075

Mi Sooner

March 12th, 2017 at 8:31 AM ^

And that is the main measure the old men at the NCAA use. I would be happy with a 7th seed; a 6th seed is a highly desired reach. At a 6th seed, we can do some major damage. Yesterday someone mentioned that the brackets were virtual done for the most part; yesterday and today's results will have little impact sadly. This would leave us at an 8th seed. Screwing over Meechigan is the NCAAs top agenda item.

Joined: 02/09/2010

MGoPoints: 10625

Mi Sooner

March 12th, 2017 at 10:35 AM ^

That we were an 8th as of yesterday before the game. I could see the committee moving us to either the northwestern or Minnesota slot as a swap. So a 7th is possible. For those of us, and that probably everyone reading this, the massive change in RPI for many teams in past few days is seemingly unusual. We were in the high 50's low 60's earlier this week and now we are looking at mid 30's, which was the temp in my house yesterday before the power came back on.

Joined: 02/09/2010

MGoPoints: 10625

bluesalt

March 12th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^

Michigan and Wisconsin have very similar resumes. They're two spots away from each other in the RPI and split the season series. The winner today will finish a seed higher than the loser. They can just make one bracket with a spot for the winner and a spot for the loser. It's easy to take into account today's game.

Joined: 11/02/2011

MGoPoints: 8482

MichiganMAN47

March 12th, 2017 at 11:22 AM ^

This is right. They certainly took into account the game when Michigan was on the verge of a one seed and in the championship a couple years ago.

Joined: 02/24/2015

MGoPoints: 3216

ak47

March 12th, 2017 at 11:46 AM ^

Kentucky thought that too, then they beat a&m and finsihed a seed line below them.  Late sunday games don't impact the brackets. They admit it every year. A late sunday championship game is stupid.  That is why the big 12, acc, and big east do saturday championships despite that meaning more games during the week.

 

http://www.sbnation.com/2017/3/12/14897702/selection-sunday-predictions…

Joined: 05/05/2011

MGoPoints: 33614

Mr Miggle

March 12th, 2017 at 1:08 PM ^

That way a bubble team (or worse) that makes the finals would be sure to get in

They do use the results of late games when they are are either important (1 seeds or in/out) or easy to do (switching the two teams). The only question I have is whether they think we should be ahead of Wisconsin even if we win. Not a sure thing.

Joined: 10/07/2010

MGoPoints: 47530

Whole Milk

March 12th, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^

I think this is true when it comes to how the game is played (i.e. blowout vs. close game), but I am fairly confident that the result is taken into account. They will have 2 bracket's prepared at some point during the Big ten championship, one if Michigan wins, and another if Wisconsin wins. People tend to act like it is impossible to consider something so late, this how they can and will do it.

Joined: 09/01/2015

MGoPoints: 2257

SF Wolverine

March 12th, 2017 at 8:31 AM ^

we are as low as 9 in a number, and lots and lots at 8.  Also not clear whether the committee can fully take into account tonite's game.  That said, seems like we would need a win to get a 6; but should not drop to that 8/9 line

Joined: 10/04/2010

MGoPoints: 24866

MH20

March 12th, 2017 at 8:55 AM ^

The NCAA Selection Committee has essentially admitted that the championship games being played today don't make much difference in terms of seeding. Just read an article on SB Nation that outlined examples of this. If Michigan is a six to Lunardi then that's probably their ceiling, which is pretty damn fantastic if you ask me.

Joined: 10/30/2008

MGoPoints: 40409

Guy Fawkes

March 12th, 2017 at 9:09 AM ^

100% off the 8-9 line. With how Michigan has played over the last month they should be locked into a 6 seed. As mentioned the committee has the bracket basically filled out and a win/loss today will do very little. The only thing Michigan really needs though is the Friday game. Thursday seems like cruel and unusual punishment

Joined: 09/28/2016

MGoPoints: 1716

Mr. Yost

March 12th, 2017 at 9:24 AM ^

Disagree on the 5. Right now we seem to be a 6/7 trending into solid 6 territory. IMO, win or lose we're a 6 unless there's another 6/7 team out there that could jump us on the final day. Getting off the 8/9 line is nice, but getting off the 7/10 line is also nice. We don't want to play a 2 seed either. The only caveat is maybe they have Wisconsin as a 5 right now and Michigan a 6 and it's a winner/loser situation. There isn't much difference from 1 to 2. At least not as much as 2 to 3 this year. For example, Duke/UNC...Arizona/Oregon. We don't want to play even the "lesser" team of those combos. Give us a 3 seed in game 2.

Joined: 07/25/2011

MGoPoints: -9898220

Muttley

March 12th, 2017 at 2:07 PM ^

in the 2nd round, Michigan would be one of them.

As to the five seed, Lundardi has Iowa St (won Big 12 Tourney), Cincinatti (in American Finals vs SMU), Virginia (lost to ND in ACC quarters, falls to five), and Florida (lost to Vandy in quarters, falls to five)

We're playing like a five (or better), but those games that got us to 4-6 in the B1G have to count for something.  I don't see it.

Joined: 07/07/2009

MGoPoints: -73245

Sambojangles

March 12th, 2017 at 9:45 AM ^

I think jumping to a 5 is crazy talk and I think it's better to be on the bottom of the bracket anyway. 6 should be comfortable but I wouldn't be surprised if we drop to 7 with a loss The competition (on bracket matrix): (6) SMU, Iowa State, Wisconsin, Creighton (7) St. Mary's, Maryland, Michigan. Miami Interesting that the matrix has Minnesota a 5 and Northwestern a 9. To me, both seem like they should be in the 6-8 mix with us.

Joined: 12/15/2008

MGoPoints: 10985

samber2009

March 12th, 2017 at 9:50 AM ^

Obviously don't want us to lose, but part of me prefers the 6 seed over the 5 seed because of the 5-12 matchup hoodoo.  My superstitions are rational! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Joined: 08/10/2009

MGoPoints: 2215

Muttley

March 12th, 2017 at 2:24 PM ^

today.

Iowa St, Cincinatti, Virginia, Florida?  Our 4-6 B1G start cost us a shot at that line, no matter how well we're playing now.

I hope I'm wrong, as against the current fours* (second round opponent)--Florida St, West Va, Purdue, and Butler-- we wouldn't be a significant underdog.  The current threes--UCLA, Louisville, Oregon, and ND--are a definite step up in difficulty.

*Lunardi for convenience

Joined: 07/07/2009

MGoPoints: -73245

MJs_PJ_Party

March 12th, 2017 at 10:05 AM ^

I just don't understand why they are considered such a lock to be in.  Their "best wins" are pretty blah and they have an awful loss to Northeastern at home.  

Their calling card this year seems to be "Hey! We lost to a lot of good teams so our SOS is high.  Let us in!"  

Why isn't there more talk about them being out?

Lack of quality overall in this year's field?

Hollis on the committee? Izzo/MSU name?  

 

Love our seed, but would also love their tourney streak to come to an end.  

Joined: 08/18/2016

MGoPoints: 414

MJs_PJ_Party

March 12th, 2017 at 10:05 AM ^

I just don't understand why they are considered such a lock to be in.  Their "best wins" are pretty blah and they have an awful loss to Northeastern at home.  

Their calling card this year seems to be "Hey! We lost to a lot of good teams so our SOS is high.  Let us in!"  

Why isn't there more talk about them being out?

Lack of quality overall in this year's field?

Hollis on the committee? Izzo/MSU name?  

 

Love our seed, but would also love their tourney streak to come to an end.  

Joined: 08/18/2016

MGoPoints: 414