The Talent Differential
I see how the board is full of 'how this team has underperformed yadda yadda.
Our talent differential compared to elite programs is still too wide
Consider this. Since 2013
- We have 4 recruits with 247 score above 98, OSU has 15, Alabama 26!!
- Put another way, for every Peppers we have, OSU has 4 equivalent difference makers, Alabama has 6.5 equivalent difference makers.
It doesn't get any better when we look lower down the depth chart.
- We have 21 recruits above a composite score of 95 since 2013, OSU has 44, Alabama 55
The point I'm trying to make is that unless we get an equivalent number of difference makers, having program that contends for National Championships is a pipedream. Unfortunately, all the top programs have similar high level player development and facilities. It comes down to having players with the highest ceilings and developing them to their potential.
Underperform is what OSU did (against Clemson).
Clemson had 16 recruits above a composite score of 95 ... compared to OSU - who had 33!You can tack some of that to youth but not all of it.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:00 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:10 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:19 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:55 PM ^
Bunting played well for butt
Defense and ST still has 11 players on field-even with out Peppers
Butt and Peppers didn't prevent close loses to Ohio state and Iowa
Way to many variables to make some definitive statement about outcomes- like saying some in 1st quarter was the key to the outcome
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January 2nd, 2017 at 4:33 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:25 PM ^
Our bread and butter play for first and goal on the 1 yard line is Hill for the TD. A TD is worth 4 more points than a FG, so actually, we did win.
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:42 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:07 AM ^
That's what he does better than anybody in the country. Metellus is not a Peppers-level talent, is an inexperienced freshmen, and was not in position to stop Cook.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:18 AM ^
Whoa, how'd you end up in Bolivia?
January 2nd, 2017 at 5:02 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:03 PM ^
Kyle Kalis (other poster's harsh thread)
Kyle Kalis (redundant thread (post FSU))
Does Whatever a Kyle Kalis Does (Muttley thread)
(Spins a web, any size)
January 2nd, 2017 at 8:36 AM ^
+1 for avatar pic
January 2nd, 2017 at 8:02 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 2:43 AM ^
one of those 3 filed goals would have been a TD
January 2nd, 2017 at 10:03 AM ^
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January 2nd, 2017 at 12:13 PM ^
PHRASING!!!!
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:15 PM ^
with a month of time, they would have had figured out how to deliver that package again.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:00 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:08 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:11 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:44 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:51 PM ^
No, I understood your point well. SBo said that he thought Harbaugh was an elite coach because Michigan put OSU and FSU to the ropes, despite having less raw talent. You then said that OSU outrecruited Clemson, yet Clemson won, implying that it was coaching and player development that was the difference.
I then stated that it is not mutually exclusive that Michigan and Clemson both were punching above their talent-weight because of elite coaching.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:16 AM ^
Ohio State and Clemson have pretty even talent . . . except for QB. There the diffference is glaring. Not sure what happened there.
January 2nd, 2017 at 8:35 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:11 AM ^
QB play like that can really be leveraged.
January 2nd, 2017 at 8:45 AM ^
Recruiting is a good measure, but not an exact science. IMO the only place that Clemson looked more talent is QB, WR, and o-line. Now, Barrett was a good recruit, but Watson is special. But, that was lucky. Barrett was more highly regarded coming out of HS. Mike Williams and A. Scott are both great WRs, but OSU has recruited quite a bit of talent there too, but right now IMO their most dynamic WRs are young and not starting. Jamarco Jones, Isiah Prince, and Billy Price and all good recruits, Jordan is a true freshman, and Elfein is the lowest rated of the bunch, but the best. I'm not sure why they haven't quite produced as well as they should. But, on the defensive side of the ball IMO OSU is just as good as Clemson. OSU has one of the best defensive backfields in the country. They aren't particularly dominant at the DT/NT, but their ends are really good and they have 4 of them. And, they have one of the best MLB in the country. So, overall I don't think Clemson is way more talented, they just are at a few key positions.
Frankly, I doubt OSU's o-line situation will be fixed next year, I don't think Barrett is anywhere near as dynamic as his predecessors, and Weber is above average, but he's not Elliot and isn't a big play threat. If Sameuel's goes to the NFL, that offense won't be great next year. Their defense will be pretty good again, depending on what 3rd year guys decide to enter the draft., but if Hooker, Conley, and Lattimore all head to the NFL, their DBs could take a significant step back.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:34 PM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:40 PM ^
...and SOUTHERN bagmen. And yes there is a big DIFFERENCE.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:42 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:51 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:03 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:46 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:51 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^
How much of that southern talent could even get into Michigan when it comes to high school grades , GPA , ACT and SAT scores? This is the one area I wish I new more about because my thinking is Uof M is already at a disadvantge in recruiting because of the higher standard of academics tha we have. Don't get me wrong , I want a higher standard for U of M but am just frustrated because I feel we are fighting an up hill battle with OSU , Bama , Clemson , the Florida schools , etc. because they will admit anybody if they can play.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:37 PM ^
Many around here are desperate for hope and the OP serves up what people want to hear- that we have everyhting in place and will become a powerhouse once the recruiting classes roll in.
Except we got beat by lowely Iowa, Clemson smoked highly starred OSU, etc. etc.
Recruit rankings matter- but no more than 50% I think. Wisky and MSU regularly do more with less. Coaching matters!
And there are legitimate concerns about JH's predictable plays and poor decision making. When the other team knows what you are going to do then it throws all those wonderful recuiting stars out the window. A team of 3 star players becomes a team of 5 star players when they know what the next play is going to be.
We are not going to automaticaly get to the playoffs by recruiting alone and the future is very uncertain right now.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:45 PM ^
Had to go to OT to beat Troy. If not for a missed easy FG, NC State would have beaten Clemson. Shit happens. For the first 40 minutes of the OSU, UM was in total control except on the scoreboad.
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:02 AM ^
January 1st, 2017 at 11:54 PM ^
JH has the 6th best record in CFB in the last 2 years, with someone else's talent that he turned into stars. We are going to be in a great place after we've had 4 top 5 recruiting classes in a row.
January 1st, 2017 at 11:55 PM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:06 AM ^
There's been plenty of unhinged Harbaugh idolatry around here, but saying "the future is very uncertain" is just as nutty in the other direction.
January 2nd, 2017 at 9:32 AM ^
Our SECOND year coach went 20-6. I'm a big fan. Funny how we forget Hoke and Rich Rod years so quickly and want it ALL, right away.
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^
I'm a big fan of JH too (and his assistants), and I expect we'll see even more success in the future as he recruits and coaches his players.
That said, I think Don is right that there is some JH idolation going on in the fan base. Understandably so, he's a great coach, a true Michigan man, and he came in at a real low point -- it does feel like he saved us.
Yet he's not a perfect coach, and he'd be the first to acknowledge that. He has and will make mistakes on and off the field. Is there much discussion of what he could have done better? Not really. We're just so thankful to have him, and to see the rapid improvement of Michigan football that we're not quibbling about scheme or play calling or personnel decisions. It's not disloyal IMO to question what he does when justified.
January 2nd, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:12 AM ^
and almost lost to Troy and NC State.
January 2nd, 2017 at 2:00 AM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 12:32 PM ^
January 2nd, 2017 at 7:45 AM ^
Oh no! Should we be frightened by your revelation MM!?
Is the future ever certain? Except for death and taxes??
Can you just be here to comfort us with your knowledge?? Make us feel safe during these highly uncertain 10 win season times????!?
Hold me.
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January 2nd, 2017 at 8:48 AM ^
There were a few times with Peppers and the running back sweeps where we were predictable and I don't understand why we did what we did, but to some degree Harbaugh did what he felt he had to do. If he had a healthy QB and a better o-line it might feel a bit different. Granted, the o-line will probably struggle again in 2017, but lets see what they look like in 2 more years with either an experienced QB and/or a highly talented one that Harbaugh picked himself.
January 2nd, 2017 at 1:50 AM ^
on OSU for year been that the defense (in particular) gets by on talent more than sound play and scheme. I remember so many missed tackles during the Denard days when OSU LBs were going for the highlight hit rather than a sure tackle.
I doubt anyone other than 'Bama has had better talent on defense than OSU over the past 5-10 years; and although the defense has always been quite good it hasn't ever been at the Alabama level. I am not sure if it is coaching, the constant turnover of kids leaving early, or the type of player attracted to OSU over Saban but the OSU D has never been dominant as the sum of it's components.
If you subbed a R. McMillon-level athlete for either McCray or Gedeon into this year's M defense we would have been undefeated and in the playoff - not sure we would've won but we would have been there.