SIAP: CFP Chairman calls last week's loss 'impressive,' explains why we have a shot
November 30th, 2016 at 8:43 AM ^
and pray to the football gods that the dominoes fall our way and we make it in.
November 30th, 2016 at 8:44 AM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 9:05 AM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 9:27 AM ^
...still on the Whiskey train here.
November 30th, 2016 at 4:38 PM ^
Your ideas are intriguing.
November 30th, 2016 at 6:12 PM ^
Are the dudes whispering surreptitiously in Nickels Arcade still there? I remember in the 90s that they would hand out The Socialist News or something and quietly ask "Interested in Socialist ideas?" to anyone walking by.
I loved it. It all felt very Cold War.
*This is not politics
November 30th, 2016 at 9:04 AM ^
thoughts to my prayers?
November 30th, 2016 at 9:58 AM ^
I'm glad you did. Now everybody knows how good of a person you are.
November 30th, 2016 at 9:37 AM ^
I'm going to start a gofundme to bribe the Pac12 officials in SF this weekend. If OSU can do it, why not us
November 30th, 2016 at 12:30 PM ^
The sad thing is, OSU didn't bribe the officials; the officials were known biased entities and were still chosen to work the game. It'd be like everybody knowing we bribed officials, watched a game where the officials earned the bribes, then shrugging their shoulders about it. Bobby Sagers and Kevin Schwarzel, Bucknuts who openly cheated us. Never Forget
November 30th, 2016 at 9:46 AM ^
Captain Kork experienced our couch game in '11. Now it's time to show the rest of college football.
November 30th, 2016 at 8:45 AM ^
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November 30th, 2016 at 8:58 AM ^
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November 30th, 2016 at 10:28 AM ^
Iowa tanked against NW but other than that, they aren't a bad team by any means. Also, for all of the know it all, yet uninformed that say NDSU cant play at a high level when they are fired up is just sad. I'd say, 3 of 4 losses that the Hawkeyes have are expected but Michigan didn't flop that game. Pretty good team in a super tough environment. Just as insane as any in the country. Just ask the Huskers if Iowa was playing good towards the end. They didn't even play a night game!
November 30th, 2016 at 3:31 PM ^
home loss to NORTH DAKOTA STATE?
Or the home loss to Northwestern?
Or getting crushed by Penn State (on the road, admittedly)
Yes, they beat Michigan, and pounded on Nebraska, and to be fair, S&P has them at number 22.
That said, I think their losses are really damning when looking at their overall body of work, and overshadows their two good wins. I don't think they are a top 25 team..
Rob
November 30th, 2016 at 5:01 PM ^
Bad dupe.
November 30th, 2016 at 8:50 AM ^
Each of the last two years the team sitting at #5 entering the conference championship weekend has ended up in the playoffs.
The way Hocutt was talking about getting the "best four teams" tells me that he is looking for the slightest excuse to put Michigan in. Not only because the committee knows that we are one of the four best, but because they want better TV ratings and they don't want a team that will get blownout by Alabama (Wisconsin, Penn State, etc.).
People talk about conference champions like the B1G doesn't have exactly what it had last year, two meh teams playing for the conference championship, one of whom beat OSU in a fluke game, while the best team(s) sit at home. You want another Bama ass-whipping? Pick the B1G champion again, see how it works out.
November 30th, 2016 at 9:00 AM ^
We all talk about conf. championships but he said head to head, conf. championships, common opponents and the 4th slips my mind "in no particular order" determine close resumes. The value of those listed factors is determined individually by each committee member.
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November 30th, 2016 at 9:22 AM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 9:31 AM ^
was more about TV ratings and less about conference championships.
Or, maybe they have reconcidered the conference championships thing. There has been some turn-over on the board in the last two years.
November 30th, 2016 at 4:50 PM ^
I'd be pretty nervous about being conference champion and getting dissed.
November 30th, 2016 at 9:34 AM ^
does that mean even if Washington squeaks by and wins, we could still get in? Interesting if that's the case. Go Colorado!
November 30th, 2016 at 9:39 AM ^
As good as we are and as good as the Big Ten is, I have a hard time envisioning the committee passing a 12-1 conference champion over us. Especially one that just beat a top 10 team in the last week of the season. I think we need Washington or Clemson to lose no matter what
November 30th, 2016 at 9:53 AM ^
Right. Washington needs a 2nd loss and no conference championship. Clemson losing would be gravy. Bama and OSU would have to drop their football programs in order to be left out of the playoff.
November 30th, 2016 at 11:11 AM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 2:13 PM ^
Hmm. I think it's up to them. Not our call.
Besides - can you imagine the diaspora from AL and OH? I have dreams like that. And then I put on some white noise and tell myself that it's just a dream. Just a dream.
November 30th, 2016 at 11:56 AM ^
Some people are claiming that if that game is even close, whether UW wins or not, that we're in. I don't think that is true, I think Washington has to lose.
But bet against Colorado at your own risk this year.
November 30th, 2016 at 9:44 AM ^
Spot on. Both Michigan and OSU have already played four of the current top 9 teams, each going 3-1. You can't really argue with the teams in the B1G championship game, as that is just the way it shook out, but it is clear they are not the two best in the conference. Penn State pulled a huge upset against the #2 team in the country, then beat TWO other teams with winning records this year.
On the other side, I do understand how some fans will end up being upset as there is a possibility that maybe only one team in the CFP is a conference champion. I still think an 8 team playoff is perfect. That gives you a chance to give automatic bids to each P5 champ, with three at large bids. That also leaves the door open for a Western Michigan to have a shot at playing with the big boys.
November 30th, 2016 at 10:53 AM ^
When doing autobids I think we'd need a "must be in top 15" (or similar) of the CFP rankings to avoid a situation like 2012 where 8-5 Wisconsin was the Big Ten champion.
November 30th, 2016 at 11:27 AM ^
Agreed. There would have to be some sort of caveat since, in particular the B1G West and SEC East, some of the conferences have one division much more loaded than the other.
If there were specific, agreed upon criteria for automiatic bids, and for what will be weighed for at large picks, it would eliminate a lot of the guess work and complaining.
November 30th, 2016 at 12:15 PM ^
we get it.
an 8 team playoff
could you please explain to me for the upteenthmillionth time why it would b better?
I didn't understand it the first upteenthmilionth times.
November 30th, 2016 at 10:28 AM ^
I know I'm being a debbie downer and its probably because I don't want to get my hopes up since none of this matters if there isn't a pretty major upset this weekend but I think people are glossing over some warning signs. The gap between 4 to 7 being mentioned as small means an impressive win from either psu or wisconsin may jump them, also further down in the article he is discussing why florida state is ranked above Louisville despite losing by 40 and the justification is that Florida state is the better team right now and over the last few weeks. If recent weeks is a determing factor that highlights how PSU blasted an Iowa team we lost to a week later. It may or may not be enough but the comitte has provided justifications both for keeping Michigan above the big ten champ but also for dropping them below a team they have beaten if that team looks good this weekend.
November 30th, 2016 at 10:32 AM ^
Since when have the words impressive, Wisconsin or Penn State ever been included in the same conversation or sentences? None that I've ever witnessed!
November 30th, 2016 at 10:41 AM ^
Don't. The only way either team would get in over us would be with a Washington / Clemson loss and a total blowout in the B1G Championship game. Something like the 59-0 OSU did in 2014.
Neither PSU or Wisconsin is capable of laying a beat down like that on the other.
I think that if Colorado wins, and even if Washington wins on a fluke / last second play, we're in. Washington has a crap SOS and would get pounded by Alabama. The committee knows that we would at least play Bama close and might even beat them.
November 30th, 2016 at 11:07 AM ^
If we could still get in over Washington even if they have a close win I think we'd be ranked 4th right now. I don't think the committe wants to set up a situation where conferences avoid conference championship games because the potential extra loss is more damaging than the benefit of a win.
November 30th, 2016 at 12:04 PM ^
The committee is already in that situation -- the primary effect of the conference championship game is to provide one extra opportunity to lose. Ohio State is a virtual lock for a spot specifically because Iowa beat Michigan. If that hadn't happened, OSU could have been in position to lose to Wisconsin this weekend and get shut out of a spot.
Furthermore, your argument already makes that point, because if the Pac 12 didn't have a championship game, and UW is marginally ahead of Michigan today, UW woudn't have to worry about losing to CU and potentially getting passed by Michigan.
FWIW, if UW wins in a fluke fashion, it's absolutely possible that Michigan passes them. It's clear that the committee has taken the fluky nature of Michigan's losses into account, or they wouldn't be sitting at #5 in the first place.
December 1st, 2016 at 12:23 AM ^
The committee has been down on Washington all year. All UW has to do is give them one tiny little excuse to dump them and they will.
November 30th, 2016 at 12:53 PM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 11:24 AM ^
Let's further compare 2015 to 2016. MSU's 2015 Resume was dramatically better than that of 2016 Wisconsin or Penn State. Wisconsin nor PSU are likely to benefit from the same consideration this year because they don't have half the resume that 2015 MSU did. Throw on top the fact that 2015 MSU was beat down in the semi-final and the ratings were a disaster. It's quite obvious that the CFP committee is placing less emphasis on Conferance Championships this year solely by virtue of their current rankign of OSU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado. Their stated goal before they employ the use of any metric is to put the four best teams into the playoff. The fact that there was two hours of debate whehter Michigan or Washington belonged in the #4 spot further emphasizes that point. In terms of metrics, conference championships is only one of several, none of which are weighted in any particular order. It's all entirely possible (and even likely) that conf championship will be wieghted less than the other metrics. Weather & Injuries are even metrics that are considered in the selection process, which also goes in our favor (Speight played OSU w/ a broken collarbone). The stregth of wins is what will give Michigan the edge. Michigan and OSU have virtually the same resume and OSU is essentially already a lock. They table has been set. Go Buffs! Hope Harbaugh watches some game film of Washington this week and gives Coach MacIntrye a phone call or two.
2015 MSU: B1G Champions, 3-0 CFP Top 10, 4-0 CFP Top 25, H2H win to OSU
2015 OSU: 0-1 CFP Top 10, 1-1 CFP Top 25
2016 Wisc: B1G Champions*, 1-1* CFP Top 10, 2-1* CFP Top 25, H2H Lossses to Mich & OSU
2016 PSU: B1G Champions**, 2-1 CFP Top 10, 2-2* CFP Top 25, H2H Loss to Mich, H2H Win to OSU
2016 Mich: 3-1 CFP Top 10, 3-1 CFP Top 25, H2H Wins over PSU & Wisconsin, H2H Loss to OSU
2016 OSU: 3-1 CFP Top 10, 3-1 CFP Top 25, H2H Wins over Michigan & Wisconsin, H2H Loss to PSU
*Presumes win over PSU
**Presumes win of Wisconsin
November 30th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^
I mean part of the reason we need colorado over wisconsin more than vt over clemson is because a bad colorado loss could drop them out of the top 10. Michigans resume loses a lot of its punch over PSU's if both teams are 2-1 against the top 10 whereas as Colorado win means Michigan would have 3 wins in the top 10 including 2 top 6 wins.
November 30th, 2016 at 8:51 AM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 9:05 AM ^
November 30th, 2016 at 9:28 AM ^
It doesn't hinge on Penn St. winning. If it is a close game at all, there's no way Wiscosin jumps us. So if Washington loses, we're in. If Clemson loses, we're in. Pretty simple. Only a blowout by Wisconsin changes that and I don't see that happening. Go Colorado.
November 30th, 2016 at 10:25 AM ^
How do the resumes compare if Washington wins this weekend but Clemson loses
Clemson 11-2
Key wins over: @ #12 Florida State, vs. #13 Louisville, @ #14 Auburn (none are playing this weekend)
Losses to: vs. #25 Pitt, N vs. #23 Va Tech (probably shoots up into the upper teens with a win)
Michigan 10-2
Key wins over: vs. #6 Wisconsin, vs. #7 Penn State, vs. #8 Colorado (in this scenario all 3 play this weekend and 2 of them lose so 2 teams will drop)
Losses to: @ UR Iowa, @ #2 Ohio State
Advantages for Clemson - No unranked losses, made conference title game, 2 of their 3 best wins were on the road, 1 more win than Michigan
Disadvantages for Clemson - Lost home game, their 3 wins will probably still be lower than at least 2 of the 3 best michigan wins if not all of them
Advantages for Michigan - 3 top 15ish wins, no home losses, 1 loss was in 2 OT on road against #2 team
Disadvantages for Michigan - 2 of their 3 best wins lost the day before CFP selection, no good road wins, loss over unranked team, did not win division/play in title game
I think Clemson still gets in over UM at least if they lose this weekend.
November 30th, 2016 at 10:35 AM ^
December 1st, 2016 at 12:27 AM ^
Clemson has been living on the edge all year. They don't have a really big win and the "big" wins they do have are looking weaker and weaker.
Plus losing to VA Tech in December in the ACC CG will be a really bad look. Clemson will drop like a stone.
November 30th, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^
December 1st, 2016 at 12:28 AM ^
The committee will watch the PAC-12 title game, compare it to Michigan's game with CU and then discuss / vote.
You bring up a good point . . . if Washington squeaks by CU we still have a shot since we beat CU soundly.
November 30th, 2016 at 9:52 AM ^
according to the BIG and Delany who did a thorough review of the game only to find one missed call in the entire 60 minutes of game time and two OTs by the crew who were half either buckeye fans or previously fired incompetent refs. So the I'm sure the committee would reconsider any previous thoughts that the late hits, the missed holds, the inconsistant pass interference calls played any part in the loss. /s (is that needed?)
I really can't believe that Michigan has a shot. I believe that Michigan is the second best team in the country and poses the best shot to take down Alabama from all the rest of the teams in the country. I just am surprised that committee is doing the same.
November 30th, 2016 at 8:52 AM ^
Its out of our hands people, just sit back, relax, and enjoy some stress free college football this weekend!
Being a Colorado boy, post Colorado game, I have enjoyed watching the Buffs all season and do hope they win regardless of waht it does to Michigans chacnes... But as always GO BLUE