M and OSU vs. common opponents, S&P
These are averages.
| Team | Points | Plays | Yards | Yards Per Play | Scoring Opps | Pts Per Opp | Avg Field Pos. | Success Rate | TO Margin |
| M Offense | 42.00 | 74.83 | 473.00 | 6.37 | 8.00 | 4.83 | 35.10 | 47% | 6 |
| OSU Offense | 37.67 | 80.17 | 438.83 | 5.40 | 7.83 | 4.60 | 34.70 | 46% | 3 |
| M Defense | 8.83 | 63.00 | 245.33 | 3.71 | 3.00 | 2.79 | 25.15 | 27% | |
| OSU Defense | 13.83 | 64.67 | 258.67 | 3.95 | 3.50 | 3.22 | 26.08 | 30% |
For the life of me, someone explain why OSU is thought of more highly. They're only better in previous years' recruiting rankings.
Oh, by the way, the above averages include one game where we didn't have our friggin' starting QB.
November 20th, 2016 at 4:47 PM ^
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November 20th, 2016 at 5:12 PM ^
this on the road at the shoe.
Fingers crossed--but aside from Rutgers, M has shown they are not quite so resilient on the road as they are at home.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:20 PM ^
Very small sample size this year.
November 20th, 2016 at 6:59 PM ^
Doesn't travel well (except for Rutgers...but LOL). The defense, however, travels. Rutgers, Iowa, and MSU averaged just over 12 points against us on the road. This is including garbage MSU/clown-show ref time. If the defense shows up, we defnintely have more than a puncher's chance.
November 20th, 2016 at 7:33 PM ^
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November 20th, 2016 at 8:09 PM ^
... we let up 7 more points and about 150 yards than OSU
Common opponent argument doesnt work.
November 20th, 2016 at 9:04 PM ^
November 21st, 2016 at 11:37 AM ^
Mr. Ray of Sunshine. I'm glad you're here during Hate Week to temper our everything. Keep up the work that nobody asked you to do.
Also, common opponent argument does work. OSU didn't put MSU away until Dantonio did it for them. We had MSU beat at the half, and they went full desperation in the 4th to gain most of those 150 extra yards. Your argument looks at stats, but completely ignores the thing that matters - the game itself. What if OSU lost to MSU? Would common opponent work then? Your thinking is weird.
November 21st, 2016 at 11:54 AM ^
Barrett also threw for 86 yards against MSU on 22 attempts, while the game was still in question until the very end. Speight threw for 244 on 25 attempts, with not many of them coming in the entire second half of the game.
Barrett also went 9 of 21 for 93 yards against Indiana.
They aren't invincible.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:32 PM ^
November 20th, 2016 at 5:36 PM ^
That's exactly why the transitive theory is really not applicable to college football.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:51 PM ^
We probably would've made all three FGs at night.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:01 PM ^
OSU is better because Penn state linebackers .
Also because O'Korn is worse than Nick Sheridan.
November 20th, 2016 at 4:57 PM ^
November 20th, 2016 at 5:02 PM ^
Recency bias over the past years as well as over the past couple weeks. The IA loss is sticking in the talking heads...heads.
November 20th, 2016 at 4:58 PM ^
November 20th, 2016 at 5:02 PM ^
All the human rankings (CFP, AP, Coaches, ESPN power) are all like, "Clearly Ohio State at #2...."
Explain to me why, by any standard, OSU should be ranked ahead of all the other 1-loss teams, and clearly so at that.
Okay, so OSU's only loss was to a top 10-15 team...a team that lost to Michigan 49-10 in a game that wasn't that close. It was 28-0 quickly. PSU LBs yada, yada...their "high powered offense" couldn't do diddly poo.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:15 PM ^
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November 20th, 2016 at 5:24 PM ^
Our "high powered offense" struggled to score 13 points against a mediocre Iowa team.
So our stats are marginally better (does it really matter that our offense and defense put up better numbers on Rutgers than OSU? Does it make a difference that in the two common games, PSU and Wisconsin, we were at home while OSU was on the road?) and we didn't collapse against Penn State.
Who cares? There is a thin margin, and the humans who say "clearly Ohio State at #2" as you put it clearly know that this will be settled, in Columbus, on the field.
I think it's interesting to compare relative stats against common opponents. I think concluding that our position behind OSU is some sort of significant injustice is a big overreach. If they win, the voters and committees were correct. If we win, they were wrong and they will change their rankings to reflect it.
The committee is not going to keep a one-loss B1G champion Michigan team out of the playoff. It is highly unlikely that such a team would be anything less than #2.
We find out on Saturday.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:12 PM ^
But how do our performances compare against uncommon opponents, like the team we played that was made up of all really tall redheaded Asian guys named George???
November 20th, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^
You just described CRex's future sons.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:18 PM ^
It's not about common opponents, it's about matchups.
Unfortunately, Ohio State has more strength-on-weakness matchups against us that they can exploit, than we do against them.
Our weaknesses at LB can be exploited by the strength of their offense which relies on quick short passes, edge runs, and QB scrambles. Our OL weaknesses in pass pro can be exploited by the strength of their fast, aggressive DL.
Our DL rush is a strength. They are (very) weak at downfield passing, but they don't rely on it as much in their offense so it's harder to exploit.
We will have to hang our hopes on what seems to be an emerging weakness against the run by them. The downfield running game is not exactly our big strength, but we have to hope it's enough of a matchup mismatch to exploit them.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:23 PM ^
i just feel that so many things have to go right for us VS OSU at home.
We really need to win the field position battle. I think that we are gonna be hard-pressed to move the ball down the field consistantly on long drives.
JOK (or less than 100% Speight) throwing vs a secondary that nearly as good as ours is a concern of mine.
November 20th, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^
While our overall defense appears to be better, I would say that their secondary overall is actually better than ours (CB and safeties). I think some people are overlooking that when considering strengths vs weaknesses of each team.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:30 PM ^
The one gaping hole in our defense has been LB play on the edge and in coverage. And that hole happens to be exactly the area OSU is best suited to attack with Curtis Samuel, whom I've been terrified of since that long TD that UCF torched us with.
And the possible counters to that situation often involve vacating the middle to cover the edge, which, you know, is where JT Barrett's running ability comes in.
So I agree with you that the matchups are unfavorable. Speight's mid-season surge had given me hope that Michigan could score enough to make up for the occasional big play drive/long td, but if he's not playing the whole game at close to 100% the offense will almost certainly not be able to keep up.
BTW, there is zero chance that OSU forgets to use Samuel enough the way it has the rest of this year. They are, surely, salivating to get him the ball.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:39 PM ^
I don't think the matchups are that unfavorable. OSU's defense has yielded a lot of rushing yards to manball teams like MSU and Wisconsin, and I wouldn't say their QB situations are any better than ours with JOK. We should be able to move the ball against them, but we need to finish drives, which is what we didn't do last year. On the defensive side, if we aren't loading up at the line of scrimmage and forcing Barrett to beat us with his arm then Don Brown isn't as smart as we all think he is. Meanwhile, I love the matchup of our DL against their OL. They should be able to collapse the pocket and prevent Barrett from scrambling for big plays.
November 20th, 2016 at 6:07 PM ^
Hopefully we fare better than most other have. They have alot of weapons that have been underutilzed all seaon long (conspicously convenient).
November 20th, 2016 at 5:20 PM ^
Pretty sure last year would have shown something similar too....we know how that turned out.
And based on how this team usually plays on the road, let alone one of the loudest places in the country like OSU, I don't see a ton of reason to see sunshine.
November 20th, 2016 at 6:31 PM ^
November 20th, 2016 at 7:05 PM ^
Say things like "based on how this team usually plasy on the road" when they've been good on the road this year? Sure, not elite like in some of their home games, but damn dude, the defense. Do you only look at the offense? If so, I suggest you stick around when we punt - the other big phase of the game is fun to watch, AND travels well, thankyouverymuch.
Not saying it means we win, but your attitude is based on nothing except your inability to see what the team does well on the road. They shut other teams down, and keep them out of the red zone. Defense wins championships, and we're playing for one.
November 20th, 2016 at 8:05 PM ^
Road games:
Michigan
Iowa L
Rutgers W (LOL)
MSU W
OSU
at 7 Oklahoma W
at 5 Wisconsin W
at 8 PSU L
My problem is that when you remove rutgers (LOL) our road performaces are generally bad. Im not blaming the team for the schedule but these are valid critisms.
November 20th, 2016 at 10:26 PM ^
November 20th, 2016 at 11:32 PM ^
That MSU game means very little in this example.
My point is that OSU has clearly played a much harder road schedule. And It may explain our poor play on the road.
We havent had a tough opponent on the road.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:21 PM ^
I dunno man. If we'd played them a month ago on a neutral field with Speight I feel like we would've probably won. Playing them in Columbus with O'Korn after the last 2 games has me pessimistic.
Love the advanced stats but they tend to be a bit flawed when it comes to factoring in injuries to some extent with the trends in plays. And home field is typically worth a FG or more.
Still think our defense is fantastic and better than theirs but if we can't pass the ball effectively we're going to need big plays either from Peppers or Chesson/Darboh/Evans or some turnovers on D.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:27 PM ^
but all of these stats were accumulated with a different QB. If we had a healthy Speight going into the game, I'd be fairly confident in a win. With O'Korn, not so much.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:37 PM ^
Strange things can happen in college football, much moreso than in NFL (which is why I will take an average CFB game over average NFL game every time) - nothing can be taken for granted and literally any team can beat any other with a couple lucky breaks (FBS on FBS at least).
We had just about all starters playing and healthy against Iowa - statistically we should win but bad luck/play/officiating/etc happens. Same for OSU against State last year. Healthy Speight is good (really hoping he's back too), but ultimately it's just one factor that may or may not matter.
November 20th, 2016 at 6:13 PM ^
On the road, at night in a conference matchup - Weird shit tends to happen. That's why I was skeptical of writing of OSU after theat PSU/blocked FG debacle (a game in which they largely outperformed PSU in the box score and should have easily won). And that's the same reason we didn't write off M after the bullshit Iowa game. Weird shit happens on the road at night during conference play, especially when you're a top team and everyone is playing you like it's their fucking superbowl.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:32 PM ^
None of that matters if this defense does not tackle. This week will obviously be the most important in terms of prepping vs. a team that breaks a lot of tackles. JT has an amazing ability to slip tackles in the back field. Everyone needs to tackle solidly and wrap up.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:42 PM ^
November 20th, 2016 at 5:55 PM ^
"broke his foot off in their aspirin"?
Yeah, the rest of this just lost its meaning after that particular miscue. That, and the use of "Suckeyes".....also, it's "De'Veon", I believe.
November 20th, 2016 at 6:10 PM ^
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November 20th, 2016 at 10:02 PM ^
Tim B. was not "unknown". He was considered one of the nations top RBs in 1995 and ran for a school record 1800+ yards.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:42 PM ^
Our defense is good enough and OSU's offense has been slowed by enough other teams this year to have faith that we'll be able to avoid getting gouged on defense like we did last year.
The bigger question is whether we'll be able to generate enough points on offense. My biggest worry is that the lack of downfield passing attack makes our offense too one dimensional. Harbaugh's offense really relies on making defenses play on their heels trying to anticipate what is coming next, which means the play calling needs to remain fairly balanced.
This offense is not good enough to get into predictable situations and try to rely on simply out-executing OSU's defense.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:45 PM ^
November 20th, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^
I don't know, man. I think when all is said and done that ends up being Colorado.
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November 20th, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^
Colorado is pretty good, but they don't have near the talent and athletic prowess that OSU does.
November 20th, 2016 at 6:38 PM ^
Maybe. I've been reading various M message boards for a long time and I've read about how the PAC 10/12 sucked many times over the years. But we're 3-8 against the PAC 12 this century so I wouldn't get too cocky about the quality of the PAC 12. UW is a real good team. USC is playing extremely well right now. Colorado is pretty good, especially when Liufau is healthy. Utah, WSU and Stanford have some flaws but are still solid teams and the latter 2 have improved a lot during the course of the season. The B1G is probably better this year but it's hardly true that the PAC 12 is usually junk.
November 20th, 2016 at 5:50 PM ^
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November 20th, 2016 at 5:51 PM ^
I don't think these really matter that much seeing as we aren't going to have Healthy 1st string QB. Figures , we get to 9-0 and are rolling and our starting QB gets hurt. Fucks up a pretty good season we had going. Bad weather or not, O'Korn looked like shit yesterday. Unless he makes some kind of amazing 1st game to 2nd game improvement, we better hold OSU to 10 points if we expect to win.