Can a one-loss, non-Big Ten champion Michigan make the CFP?
November 6th, 2016 at 3:43 PM ^
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November 6th, 2016 at 5:54 PM ^
+1 Accurate
November 6th, 2016 at 6:45 PM ^
Not accurate at all. Several scenarios where Michigan can make it in without winning the BIG.
November 6th, 2016 at 7:55 PM ^
Don't kid yourself our beloved coach(all hail harbaugh) is not as beloved elsewhere. They would love to rub his nose in it. Just win. Or plan on next year.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:43 PM ^
We're beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten, so it doesn't matter
November 6th, 2016 at 4:12 PM ^
Fuckin' a, Stringer.
November 6th, 2016 at 5:55 PM ^
What happened to Wallace, String?! What happened to WALLACE?!!!
November 6th, 2016 at 7:03 PM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 7:12 PM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 3:44 PM ^
Talking about anything else wouldn't be
prudent at this juncture.
November 6th, 2016 at 4:15 PM ^
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November 6th, 2016 at 5:16 PM ^
Several-many.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:44 PM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 3:46 PM ^
Definitely Washington.
I'd compare our record as a one-loss team to Lousiville's as a one loss team any day.
November 6th, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^
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November 6th, 2016 at 4:34 PM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 6:37 PM ^
In 2006 that was a 1 vs 2 match up. Michigan is neither 1 nor 2 right now.
November 6th, 2016 at 7:10 PM ^
In the AP Michigan is #2, and in FEI Michigan is #1. There are others I'm sure that Michigan is either #1 or #2.
Or did you mean Ohio State, yes, they are probably averaging #4 or 5. But the difference between 2 slots and 4 in the current playoff format should more than offset the slight difference in circumstances.
In the interim between the matchup, neither Michigan and Ohio State are at all likely to lose a game. For the other teams, not so much. Ohio State will be ranked higher, and probably in the top 4, when the game is played.
November 7th, 2016 at 9:00 AM ^
The difference was that in that year, everyone thought Michigan and OSU were legitimately the best two teams in the country (and that still wasn't enough). That is not the case this year.
November 7th, 2016 at 9:35 AM ^
They only have to think we are the 4th best team to make the CFP.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:44 PM ^
Washington would need to lose to one of USC/WSU/Colorado
and
Clemson loses in Conf title game.
Big 12 is out, Pac 12 would be out, and all other SEC teams would have 2 losses.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:49 PM ^
I think you only need one of these to happen to open up the 4th spot.
The Big 12 and Notre Dame are already out. One of the above knocks out the second P5 champion, leaving room for a 4th "at-large".
November 6th, 2016 at 3:56 PM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 3:59 PM ^
Yes, but if Clemson loses the ACC then they're out versus us.
Our loss would be to Top 5 Ohio State. Their loss would be to some middling ACC team.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:46 PM ^
It's possible, but it will be very hard to get in that way. And I am not sure a one-loss Michigan would get in over a two-loss conference champion. No one knows how the Committee would treat that because there is no precedent to work with.
It would probably help Michigan if the team that were to win the Pac-12 is Colorado in this hypothetical scenario.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:55 PM ^
The chatter so far is that a one-loss non-conference champion team of the likes of Michigan, Alabama, Clemson, or Ohio State . . . even Louisville . . . would get in over a 2-loss conference champion. But as you said, there is no precedence.
I hope we win out and some of this other stuff happens so that we can see for the public record how the commitee thinks, without it actually impacting us.
November 6th, 2016 at 5:53 PM ^
seen the results of the CCGs fail to produce at least four champions that are arguably Top 4 teams.
With the Big 12 so awful this year, it would only take one upset for another conference to produce a lame "champion". If that happens, (e.g. a PAC12 South winner, an ACC Coastal winner, or an SEC East winner), then I think those weak back-door champions would be replaced with indisputably superior non-champions.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:45 PM ^
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November 6th, 2016 at 3:50 PM ^
You're LATE.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:48 PM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 3:50 PM ^
Of course. But if you don't . . . ?
November 6th, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^
No, because apparently ESPN AND the cfp committee don't understand the definition of a quality win and that the ranking at the time of the ballgame means absolutely nothing.
Of course, Ohio State can lose to the same PSU team that we crushed (with small linebacker caveats that add up to no more than a touchdown or so), but SUDDENLY that's a quality loss, but our win still sucks.
Fuck stupid people.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:54 PM ^
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November 6th, 2016 at 5:10 PM ^
WRONG !!! If Michigan were to lose by a FG in Columbus and finish 11-1 they are easily a top 4 team. Same thing with Alabama and losing a very close game to Auburn.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:57 PM ^
That said, it's possible. The SEC has no other playoff candidates besides Alabama, the PAC 12 has no candidates besides Washington, and the Big 12 has no candidates at all.
It's still a bit too complex to analyze specific scenarios, but there aren't a lot of teams to leap. Louisville? Washington if they lose a game? We're not talking about a Rube Goldberg machine of disaster, here... a couple of upsets and the committee will be digging through the trash heap, and we're right up near the top of that in this scenario.
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November 6th, 2016 at 4:05 PM ^
I agree. I don't usually like these scenarios either.
But it really caught my attention when it was pointed out this morning that the mighty SEC has no shot at a second team if Alabama wins out. They will all have two or more losses.
If a conference is going to get two teams in, it's going to be the Big Ten.
That's quite a shift from as recently as November 2014 when the sentiment was that the Big Ten should not get any teams in.
November 7th, 2016 at 7:55 AM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 3:57 PM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 7:07 PM ^
LOL! You're not responding to one of the coaches, so it is moronic to command that your respondent not "plan for contingency."
Actually, it is moronic to advise anyone not to plan for contingencies, but it especially silly in your case.
November 6th, 2016 at 3:59 PM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 4:08 PM ^
Not if those other things happen, primarily Washington not winning the Pac 12 which is not really a long shot.
A late loss is not good, but who else loses late matters too.
I don't have to out run the bear, I just have to out run you.
November 6th, 2016 at 5:11 PM ^
Late or early should not matter one bit.
November 6th, 2016 at 4:00 PM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 4:02 PM ^
If we lose again to Ohio State, this whole season and the CFP don't matter.
November 6th, 2016 at 4:06 PM ^
NA-NA-NA-NA-NA-NA I CAN'T HEAR YOU NA-NA-NA-NA-NA-NA
November 6th, 2016 at 4:08 PM ^
November 6th, 2016 at 4:14 PM ^
The only part I am afraid of - and it's fading somewhat - is Ohio State's ability to pressure the QB. They get in there fast and relentless.
Speight is still a different guy under pressure than when he has time to throw. He's been good, but he's still not a quick read and release guy. He needs some time.
Our O-Line and RBs will have to give him some time to operate. More than OSU usually allows.
They've got 2 more games to refine that.
November 6th, 2016 at 7:50 PM ^
I don't know if this is necessarily true.
I would have to go back and look over tape to confirm, but my impression is that Michigan's pass rush is relentless when it is fresh; but sometimes later in sustained drives, and occaisionally later in games, the rush has not been quite so fast and fearsome. Of course, most games have hardly been in doubt, so we don't have much to go on to know what would happen if they have to go a full sixty minutes. Again, I would need to reconfirm this and am being cautious, but that would be an area of concern.
[BTW I felt maybe Maryland's most succesful play was on the WR tunnel screens, so it will be interesting to see if Indiana and Ohio State will try that, and what Brown's answers will be]
The important thing will be to keep OSU's offense off the field, and Michigan's offense on it, and scoring TDs when in the scoring zone. That means the same as it always has: avoiding turnovers and wearing down THEIR defense when we have the ball; stopping the run and making JTB uncomfortable when he has to pass.
Then there are variables somewhat beyond control: weather, injuries, and referee calls, particularly how they are calling holding and PI on that particular day.
I am optimistic, but by no means sure of what will happen.