2016 initial win total over/unders are up
The Golden Nugget Casino has released their opening over/unders.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/win-total-odds-for-top-c…
Clemson -- 10 (-120 over, EVEN under)
Florida State -- 10 (-120/EVEN)
Tennessee -- 10 (-110/ -110)
Oklahoma -- 10 (+110/-130)
LSU -- 9.5 (-140/+120)
Michigan -- 9.5 (-120/EVEN)
Alabama -- 9.5 (-110/-110)
UCLA -- 9 (-120/EVEN)
Louisville-- 9 (-110/-110)
Notre Dame -- 9 (+105/-125)
Baylor -- 9 (+105/-125)
Houston -- 9 (+130/-150)
Georgia -- 8.5 (-145/+125)
Ohio State-- 8.5 (-115/-105)
Oregon -- 8.5 (EVEN/-120)
TCU -- 8.5 (+105/-125)
Oklahoma State -- 8.5 (+110/-130)
Florida -- 8 (+105/-125)
Stanford -- 8 (+110/-130)
Michigan State-- 8 (+115/-135)
USC -- 7.5 (-120/EVEN)
Ole Miss -- 7.5 (-105/-115)
Auburn -- 7 (-120/EVEN)
UNLV -- 4.5 (-130/+110)
Conferences:
All SEC teams -- 103.5 (-110/-110)
All Big 10 teams -- 97.5 (-110/-110)
All ACC teams -- 96.5 (-110/-110)
All Pac-12 teams -- 81.5 (-110/-110)
All Big 12 teams -- 69.5 (-110/-110)
All Power Five Conference teams -- 446.5 (-110/-110)
my whole life savings to take the over on OSU at 8.5?
Yeah really. That's just silly.
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It's not that silly. Oklahoma is a likely loss, which means to hit the over, they have to go 4-2 against UM, Nebraska, Northwestern, @MSU, @PSU, @Wisconsin. That won't be easy after losing ten draft picks.
I wouldn't say Oklahoma is a likely loss. OSU isn't replacing those they've lost with schmucks. They've had good recruiting classes nearly every year. I think Oklahoma and the Michigan games are toss ups. They should beat MSU IMO. Everybody else, I think they are heavy favorites against. If they go less than 4-0 against Wisconsin, PSU, N'W and Nebraska, they shoudl be disappointed with themselves IMO. Those are not good teams. I think their O/U should be at 9.5 like ours.
If you're putting a percentage on every game, the probably OSU beats OU is likely less than 50%. That's what is meant by likely loss. A toss up means 50/50, and I don't think anyone thinks that about that game. I'm sure Vegas will have Oklahoma as a favorite.
A big one as of now. Oklahoma opened -9.
http://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2016/05/70612/buckeye…
When Oklahoma starts winning big games consistently, I'll consider them favorites in a game like this. OSU has showed well in big games in recent history. Oklahoma, not nearly as much.
Also, it's subjective but I wouldn't say that a 51% chance of a loss means it's a "likely" loss. There's still a pretty good chance they could win. I would put likely upwards of 65%.
Again, subjetive so we just may have different ideas of "likely"
I try not to be subjective. If you have a better chance to lose than to win, that's a likely loss. It's not a certain loss, nor is it equal. You can change the semantics of it if you want, but most feel OSU have a better chance to lose than to win.
Eh, I put OU ahead 55/45 in terms of percent. That's a toss up in my mind because they're only playing once - not a statistically significant number of times
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I think OSU will defeat Oklahoma, even though they have no business winning that game.
Yes it will, Nebraska isn't good, Northwestern isn't good, Penn State isn't good, and Michigan state lost almost as much as they did but have worse recruiting. OSU will be favored in every single one of those games, I'd bet a couple they will be double digit favorites. Going worse than 4-2 in that stretch would be an abject failure of a season for them. They are more likley to go undefeated than finish with 8 wins imo.
They are more likley to go undefeated than finish with 8 wins imo.
I'm having trouble picturing a scenario where they suddenly go 8-4 this year
even 8-4 with a bowl win gets them to 9-4 and checks the box, unless the O/U just accounts for regular season.
These O/U line are just for the regular season.
(For the record, I still think it's unlikely they go 8-4, my guess would be 10-2 or 9-3)
However, it is possible. Let me help you picture it.
Loss #1:
- An incredibly young and inexperienced (albeit talented) team has to travel to fresh out of the College Football Playoff (and probable Big 12 Champion) Oklahoma in week 3 of the season at night in a raucous environment. (Probable loss)
Losses #2 and #3
(lose 2 of the 3 following Big Ten Road games)
- At Wisconsin. Very loud, night game against the most talented team in the Big Ten West. Top Ten OSU teams have gone to Madison and lost a few times in the last decade. Still fairly early in the season, so the youth and inexperience will still be testing the Buckeyes at this point. (50-50 toss up game)
- At Penn State. Again, very loud, night game (white out) on the road relatively early in the season (and only one week after Wisconsin). I know you're all saying "But James Franklin. LOL PSU will lose by 60." Well, you may be right, but remember Urban Meyer needed overtime to defeat Penn State in his last visit and without an absolutely terrible officiating call early in the game that gave OSU a touchdown, Meyer probably would've lost. And this was his 2014 national championship team; almost no chance his team this year will be as good as the one that year. (Favored to win, but not by much)
- At Michigan State. I see this loss as less likely, but after last year, anything is possible. Like it or not, Dantonio is the only coach that Urban Meyer does not have a winning record against in the Big Ten (they are 2-2 against each other). They could be caught looking ahead to the Michigan game, especially if we were to have beaten MSU a few weeks prior/MSU was no longer in contention for the East. (Favored to win, but not by much)
Loss #4
- Harbaugh delivers.
8-4 isn't super likely to me, but writing this all out it doesn't seem like an insignificant chance.
PSU could have another very difficult year. They've got a new defensive coordinator who left Illinois because he wasn't given full DC responsibilites, coming in to replace the very capable Bob Shoop. I don't have any idea how good or bad the guy is, but not being good enough to be the full fledged DC (they wanted to keep him as co-DC) at Illinois is a red flag. And they're going to a completely new offense, having hired a new offensive coordinator as well.
I like how their QB looks in limited snaps, and while I was watching the spring game they seemed high on the WR's. But the former has almost no experience and the team still has a lot of holes. I think the probability of an OSU win is higher than you have above.
I mean Penn State had a pretty rough 2014 (6-6 against a very poor non-conference schedule) and still almost pulled the upset. OSU lost their DC too.
But again, OSU would only need to lose two of those. So they could beat PSU and still be 8-4.
They'll go 4-0 against Nebraska, Northwestern, PSU, and Wisconsin alone. Ohio State under Urban Meyer does not have to rebuild, they'll be fully stocked with NFL talent next year as well, the same as last year. I don't expect them to post any less than 9 wins for the foreseeable future given the caliber of recruits they bring in and the ability of their coach. It's unfortunate, but it's how it is.
Nebraska and Northwestern are 100% wins for them.
Wisconsin I view as a toss up.
PSU they'll likely win, but Urban should've lost there in 2014 and crazy White Out upsets can happen.
Yeahhhhhhhh im not willing to bet on Oklahoma just yet.
The toughest one of those 6 is Michigan (where they are substantial favorites still). MSU is on the road but that team is going to take a far bigger step back than OSU. 4-2 seems like a worst-case scenario for OSU.
Have you watched PSU the last 2 years? No way OSU loses to them.
And if you lose the bet, you just laugh at OSU till you feel better.
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8 pretty solidly in the W column:
Bowling Green, Tulsa, Rutgers, Indiana, Northwestern, Nebraska all at home. @ PSU and @ Maryland
So they'd just need to win one of :
@ Oklahoma, @Wisco, @MSU, UM
They'll get to 9 pretty easily.
root for them all year. That would be difficult.
I can picture myself at the end of the season: "Well, I'm a million dollars richer after putting all my savings on the over, but OSU just won the Big 10 again. I guess it's a wash :|
If you gave me a million dollars every time Ohio State won the B1G... I'd find a way to live with it.
Actually, I could probably graph my utility curve on this. It would look like a pretty standard work/leisure backward bending utility curve.
/Economist'd
I'm in, too. If the worst case is that I'm poor and watching OSU in the Quick Lane Bowl, that wouldn't be so bad.
Unfortunately youd have to go to Vegas to play the bet and Golden Nugget has 1K bet maximum. Damn, was hoping to pay off my med school loans.
If you were planning to bet enough to pay off your med school loans, I don't see why either of those are a problem.
$1,000 Maximum, not minimum. I would need to make about 300 separate bets.
until Bovada puts out their O/U numbers then. Obviously not doing the whole life savings deal, but if their line is 8.5 too, I don't see any reason not to put a couple hundred on that.
Send it to me. I'll take care of it. Make the check out to "CASH".
you with all of my personal information, could I just wire it to your bank account? Plz response ASAP thx
Sadly in agreement here. Urban has won fewer than 8.5 games just twice in his career. Both of them were 8 win seasons. And one was his first year as a head coach, at Bowling Green.
Exactly what I thought. Even if they lose to both us and MSU (unlikely) and lose at Oklahoma, who else is beating them? And what are the odds of all those things happening at once? It's a crazy line. I would set it at like 10.
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Frankly, I think Wisconsin might be more likely to beat them than either us or MSU. (Much earlier in the season so OSU won't be firing on all cylinders, Madison is a much tougher place to play than East Lansing).
free money plz
Manchester.
Someone please explain betting lines... I get the over/under number. But what does the (-120/even) mean? Or Ohio states (-115/-105)
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I'm not a problem gambler but I think that's how much you get if you bet a hundred
Ok but why - and +
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If it's minus, that's how much you have to bet to win 100. So for a bet that's (-120), you have to bet 120 to win 100.
But you would really win $220 or you lose $20? I'm confused. Why whould I bet $120 if I win and only get $100 back? I don't gamble so I don't have a clue. Asking for a friend. ;-)
The line tells you how much "profit" you make. If you win a bet, they give you your initial wager back as well.
Think of a bet with a friend--you don't give him your money unless you lose, because the friend trusts you. The casino doesn't have any reason to trust you, so they get to hold the amount you wagered until the bet is settled.
So if you bet "over" on Michigan, you hand them (say) $120 today. If the "over" wins, then they give you the $120 you bet plus the $100 you won. So you "profit" $100, but they got to hold your $120 for about 6 months--from today through the end of the season.
The casino takes 10% off the top. A standard line would be -110/-110. In some cases, like season win totals, every half point move is so significant that they need to add some "juice" to the lines to influence betting on each side, which is why you'd see a -120 to dissuade people slightly from taking the bet or +110 or EVEN to encourage people taking it.