Big Ten Tournament Preview: Purdue
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#8 Michigan (22-11, 10-8 B1G) vs #4 Purdue (25-7, 12-6) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Bankers Life Fieldhouse Indianapolis, Indiana |
WHEN | 1 pm ET, Saturday |
LINE | Purdue -6 (KenPom) |
TV | CBS |
Right: Michigan took the home leg against Purdue in their last matchup. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]
THE US
Moe Wagner's extended playing time today has been explained, at least in part, by the revelation that Ricky Doyle hurt his ankle late in the Northwestern game. Doyle played four minutes, all in the first half, compared to 16 effective minutes for Wagner, who's likely to serve as Mark Donnal's primary backup given the injury and his strong showing today.
THE LAST TIME
Zak Irvin scored 16 of his 22 points in the second half to lead a late Michigan rally for a 61-56 win over Purdue at the Crisler Center. Irvin was the only Wolverine in double figures, but Michigan held Purdue to only 0.92 points per possession and a 15/41 mark from inside the arc.
THE STAKES
Michigan's victory over Indiana took them from clearly outside the field to very much in the at-large conversation, but a bid isn't sewn up yet. ESPN's Eamonn Brennan gives his outlook in ESPN's Bubble Watch:
In situations like these -- when bubble teams grab a huge win in conference tourney play -- it is typical for fans to assume their team must automatically be lifted into the field. Not so fast. As important as a late-season neutral-court tourney win against a top-20 RPI outfit is, and thrilling as it was, Friday was nonetheless Michigan's fourth top-100 win of the season. Its sub-200 nonconference schedule is still dead weight. The Wolverines' lack of bad losses compares favorably to other bubble teams, but a 4-11 top-100 record hardly makes for a sure bet. For now, it's more like a 50-50 bet. One more win like Friday's would do much to strengthen those odds.
With some potential bid thieves still out there, 50-50 seems accurate right now. ESPN's Joe Lunardi still had Michigan out of the field when he gave an update on TV following the game, though he had Vanderbilt ahead of the Wolverines, which I have a hard time seeing after the Commodores lost to a sub-.500 Tennessee squad in their SEC Tournament opener. Yahoo's Brad Evans, on the other hand, currently has Michigan as the last at-large in the field.
A win would seal up a bid. A loss and Michigan might need some help. Pull hard against Tulsa and St. Bonaventure tonight.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 3 | PJ Thompson | So. | 5'10, 188 | 56 | 12 | No | ||||||||||||
Low usage, decent outside shooter, great assist:turnover ratio, high FT rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 35 | Rapheal Davis | Sr. | 6'6, 217 | 64 | 17 | Not really | ||||||||||||
Last year's B1G DPOY, iffy shooter but can hit open jumpers. True lockdown guy. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 12 | Vince Edwards | So | 6'8, 225 | 66 | 21 | No | ||||||||||||
Solid all-around player, 42% 3P shooter, PG-level assist rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 50 | Caleb Swanigan | Fr. | 6'9, 250 | 62 | 24 | Yes | ||||||||||||
Beast on boards, playing very well lately, can struggle with turnovers. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 20 | AJ Hammons | Sr. | 7'0, 250 | 55 | 28 | Not really | ||||||||||||
Living up to his potential: monster rebounder and shot-blocker, shooting 60%. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 31 | Dakota Mathias | So. | 6'4, 200 | 46 | 14 | No | ||||||||||||
39% 3P shooter rarely ventures inside arc. Good distributor. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 1 | Johnny Hill | Sr. | 6'3, 187 | 44 | 18 | Very | ||||||||||||
Strong finisher for a PG, TO-prone, no outside shot, surprisingly good off. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 44 | Isaac Haas | So. | 7'2, 282 | 37 | 29 | Very | ||||||||||||
Behemoth. Good finisher and rebounder, not nearly Hammons as shot-blocker. |
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Purdue has cooled off a bit since the first matchup, after which they moved up to #4 on KenPom only to promptly lose by 14 at Illinois. They've mostly held to form since, losing only at Iowa and Maryland and holding on for an overtime win over MSU on Tuesday, but they've dropped to #17 and the defense doesn't look quite as impenetrable.
The first preview and second preview still mostly hold true; here's a quick update.
AJ Hammons earned first-team all-B1G and Defensive Player of the Year honors this season after shooting 60% from the field with elite rebounding and shot-blocking rates. He dominated Michigan in the first matchup and had an uncharacteristically poor outing in the second. The other seven-footer in the rotation, Isaac Haas, combined to go 8/15 over the two matchups in just 26 combined minutes; at 282 pounds he's a load to handle, though there's a dropoff in shot-blocking when he's on the floor.
Freshman power forward Caleb Swanigan is one of the best rebounders in the conference and an effective inside scorer; he's been inefficient due to iffy shot selection—he's a below average outside shooter—and turnover trouble. Swanigan has proven too strong a post scorer for Zak Irvin to contain so far this season; he had a lot of trouble staying in front of Irvin on the other end in the second matchup. The Irvin-Swanigan battle will go a long way towards determining the game.
Sophomore PJ Thompson has a tiny 12% usage, an important caveat since he ranks as the second-most efficient offensive player in the country by O-Rating. He's got solid 48/43/82 shooting splits with a high free-throw rate and a solid assist-to-turnover ratio. Backup Johnny Hill is a good slasher and surprisingly productive offensive rebounder who struggles with turnovers and doesn't even have the threat of an outside shot (1/8 3P).
Rapheal Davis remains the most fearsome perimeter defender in the conference, if not the country, and while opponents still dared him to take three-pointers he made a respectable 37% this season—he did cool off to 33% in Big Ten games. He's made Duncan Robinson a relative non-factor in the season series. Vince Edwards is a good rebounder and passer with a 42% mark from three-point range. He hasn't finished well inside the arc in conference play and has been especially unproductive (3/14 2P) against the Wolverines.
Reserve Dakota Mathias made 43% of his threes in conference play and finished with the highest assist rate on the team; he attempts more than twice as many threes as twos. Kendall Stephens dropped out of the rotation—he hasn't played in 8 of the last 12 games—after the Just A Shooter™ lost his three-point shot this season. Freshman Ryan Cline took Stephens' role; he's made 41/104 threes this season... and 1/11 twos. He's a streaky player; he went 0/1 in the first Michigan game and 3/6 in the second (all 3PA).
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
While Purdue is merely decent at shooting inside and outside the arc, they make up for that with a great rebounding rate. Forcing a high number of turnovers, something Michigan failed to do against Purdue this season, is key to offsetting their overwhelming size.
The defense didn't maintain its national-best pace from early in the season, finishing seventh in the Big Ten with middle-of-the-pack two-point and three-point numbers. They were first in the conference in defensive rebounding and dead last in forcing turnovers—Michigan's coughed it up just 14 times combined in the two matchups.
THE KEYS
Win the Irvin-Swanigan matchup. Zak Irvin had trouble handling Caleb Swanigan in the post in both regular-season matchups, but Irvin has almost entirely eliminated him as an offensive rebounder (one in two games). Irvin had a rough outing in the first matchup; Swanigan couldn't keep up with him in the second as Irvin went 4/8 from beyond the arc. With Rapheal Davis a good bet to shut down Duncan Robinson, it's paramount Irvin at least matches Swanigan's production.
Keep it even on the boards. Michigan has kept the rebounding battle even against Purdue so far this season; the Wolverines improbably emerged as a legitimately good team on the boards. Still, the Boilermakers rebounded 36% of their misses this season, boast two skilled seven-footers, and get solid contributions from the non-centers—Swanigan, Edwards, and backup PG Johnny Hill are all plus offensive rebounders. Everyone needs to block out; Purdue will capitalize on mental errors.
Win The Game. Find a way.
THE MOMENT OF ZEN
THE OTHER MOMENT OF ZEN
When you hit a game-winner in March…#GoBlue #B1GTourney pic.twitter.com/Q6gQYqYYLh
— Michigan Athletics (@UMichAthletics) March 11, 2016
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Purdue by 6.
PLEASE BE WRONG, O MIGHTY KENPOM.
seems about right. I think Michigan needs to win the game vs. Purdue to get in the NCAA tournament.
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yea it would be strange. I get Mich missed the dance last year, but I would hope the deep runs before would give some recency bias.
Also, the hot/cold nature of the team means they could really go on a tear - something the committee should appreciate.
If you look at our resume from scratch, without worrying about where we were bracketed last week or the week before, we should be solidly in.
We have 20+ wins, 12 wins in the P5 Big Ten, 4 wins against the Top 25, and no losses at all to bad teams. That's a team that should be on the good side of the bubble. Period.
March 12th, 2016 at 10:00 AM ^
If you want to make a tournament that has the best teams in it, Michigan is undeniably one the top 68 (minus auto-bids and such).
The only way you can justify choosing a school like Monmouth over Michigan is if you are hoping to create the Cinderella-type drama that the casual fan wants. Michigan beating a team like California in the first round does not create as much of that than if Monmouth wins a game.
could be, but if they want to feel confident about getting in they need to beat Purdue. They are now 4-11 against the top 100, with all four wins against the top 25. They were blown out by Xavier, UConn, SMU, Purdue, Iowa twice, MSU, Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio State.
March 11th, 2016 at 11:13 PM ^
I agree; a win against Purdue takes it out of the commitee's hands. Not really though.
March 11th, 2016 at 11:24 PM ^
only way to guarantee getting in is to win the Big 10 tournament. I don't underestimate the ability of the committee to screw it up even if Michigan beats Purdue and loses in the conference championship.
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RPI is not a good measure. Kenpom is much better predictor, obviously. UM is #52. Kenpom has NW, NC St and even Neb in its top 100. So UM becomes 8-11 against his top 100 with its worse loss coming against #65 OSU on the road.
This team has a better resume than JB's first two UM tourny teams, imo.
Yeah, Kenpom seems more consistent, but sadly the committee still does seem to care, if for no other reason than narrative.
But yeah, this team has a better resume than a couple of those early Beilein teams, and is closing better than they did as well.
I think you're right about the narrative. The NCAA gets a lot of mileage out of cinderella teams. If Michigan gets into the tourney and makes it to the sweet 16, it's not much of a national story. If a mid major does the same, they're a cinderella team that everyone is talking about.
I think you're right about the narrative. The NCAA gets a lot of mileage out of cinderella teams. If Michigan gets into the tourney and makes it to the sweet 16, it's not much of a national story. If a mid major does the same, they're a cinderella team that everyone is talking about.
I think you're right about the narrative. The NCAA gets a lot of mileage out of cinderella teams. If Michigan gets into the tourney and makes it to the sweet 16, it's not much of a national story. If a mid major does the same, they're a cinderella team that everyone is talking about.
we miss you Mitch
I was wondering where that came from. In the Bracket Matrix, Tulsa is the first team out. We need them to lose and then just have Memphis lose later on.
Agree on rooting against the Bonnies, though.
Bryant, Deleware State hurting our number.
I Will Not Underestimate The Basketball Dudes
I Will Not Underestimate The Basketball Dudes
I Will Not Underestimate The Basketball Dudes
I Will Not Underestimate The Basketball Dudes
I Will Not Underestimate The Basketball Dudes
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Michigan has to do a lot right to win I believe, especially because all those Hoosier fans just sold their tickets to Purdue fans (it is a bit of a stretch to think most of them will root for Purdue now--based on having two Purdue graduates in the family, but they might).
We all know the strengths and weakness of Michigan and how they ebb and flow, but I would mention the center play as the most variable factor. Donnal is much improved but has good games with bad moments (today) and sometimes just games everybody would like to forget. Doyle is out after looking improved in the last few losses. Wagner looked good today driving and defending, let's hope he can keep it up, but he is only a freshman. I think they have a shot, and if they lose, I hope they lose close. That'll help in many ways, including next year.
have MULTIPLE losses to teams outside the top 100 ? Look at St Marys? when all your wins are against WEAK conference teams how does that make you a more attractive at large team.? How many bubble teams have 4 wins against the top 30? Vamderbilt in no way should get a bid b4 Michigan with a worse record in a league thats Weak to begin with....some of this rationale is mind boggling...Michigan has wins over Indiana, Maryland, Purdue, Texas and their non con sched included Conn, Texas Xavier and SMU..I mean as far as bubble teams go thats pretty darn good
March 11th, 2016 at 10:35 PM ^
still plays college hoops?
March 11th, 2016 at 10:46 PM ^
Sadly, yes.
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March 11th, 2016 at 11:23 PM ^
up on St Bona in OT by 3 with 18 seconds left. this would be huge davidson holds on.
March 11th, 2016 at 11:27 PM ^
davidson wins!
March 11th, 2016 at 11:37 PM ^
torching tulsa. up 23 with 3 min to go. they were final 4 in on some boards. good for us.
March 11th, 2016 at 11:51 PM ^
aren't we now 12 - 8 in B1G play ?
Go Blue!
March 12th, 2016 at 12:11 AM ^
Beat wisconsin and you are in
Beat northwestern and then indiana and you are Meh????
Please help here.
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March 12th, 2016 at 12:14 AM ^
March 12th, 2016 at 12:52 AM ^
If there is a more idiotic basketball stat than record vs. Top 100, I haven't seen it. 8 of Michigan's losses are to Top 30 teams, but they count as losses vs. the Top 100 because apparently nobody in basketball understands basic statistics.
Exactly. Using that logic, we also have 11 Top 350 losses. Top 100 W/L record is so arbitrary and stupid.
I expect the committee will look a little deeper than that.
March 12th, 2016 at 10:03 AM ^
Purdue's Big's are huge but slow. It takes them a long time to "wind up" and go to the basket. In our win against Purdue we were able to quickly double them - front and back - and swat at the ball as soon as they received the pass. It bothered them and threw off their shots.
We need to do more of the same today. There needs to be help in front of them every time they get the ball low with their backs to the basket.
Without any help, they will just leisurely back their way into the basket and drop the ball in over the head of whoever we have guarding them. And of course, the Big Ten refs will also whistle a foul on us as that happens.
March 12th, 2016 at 10:19 AM ^
March 12th, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^
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March 12th, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^
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yes, cbssports.com
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