Big Ten Tournament Preview: Indiana
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT |
#8 Michigan (21-11, 10-8 B1G) vs #1 Indiana (25-6, 15-4) |
---|---|
WHERE |
Bankers Life Fieldhouse Indianapolis, Indiana |
WHEN | Noon ET, Friday |
LINE | Indiana -7 (KenPom) |
TV | ESPN |
Right: Obligatory. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]
THE STAKES
A win and Michigan likely secures an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. A loss almost certainly relegates Michigan to the NIT. The stakes don't get much higher.
THE LAST TIME
Let's not talk about the last time.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G | 11 | Yogi Ferrell | Sr. | 6'0, 180 | 86 | 25 | No | ||||||||||||
One of the best PGs in the country. Great outside shooter, distributor. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 4 | Robert Johnson (inj.)* | So. | 6'3, 195 | 57 | 18 | No | ||||||||||||
Excellent three-point shooter. Inefficient inside arc. Turnover-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 30 | Collin Hartman | Jr. | 6'7, 215 | 55 | 13 | No | ||||||||||||
Low-usage, Just A Shooter™ type making 38% of threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 5 | Troy Williams | Jr. | 6'7, 215 | 64 | 26 | Not really | ||||||||||||
Great athlete and finisher, impactful defender, improved shooter, TO-prone. | |||||||||||||||||||
C | 31 | Thomas Bryant | Fr. | 6'10, 245 | 56 | 22 | Not really | ||||||||||||
Top-flight post scorer also boasts strong rebounding and block rates. | |||||||||||||||||||
G | 2 | Nick Zeisloft | Sr. | 6'4, 210 | 49 | 13 | No | ||||||||||||
Has attempted 139 threes and 14 twos this season. 43% 3P shooter. | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 0 | Max Bielfeldt | Gr. | 6'8, 240 | 43 | 22 | No | ||||||||||||
Rebounding and scoring well, third-best steal rate in B1G. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ | |||||||||||||||||||
F | 3 | OG Anunoby | Fr. | 6'8, 215 | 31 | 18 | No | ||||||||||||
Efficient inside-outside scorer, good offensive rebounder, turnover-prone. |
*Robert Johnson has missed IU's last three games with a high ankle sprain; while there hasn't been a definitive update on his status, there's a decent chance he's available to play. Forward Juwan Morgan's status is also up in the air after he appeared to aggravate a shoulder injury on Sunday against Maryland.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Covered in detail in the preview of the regular-season matchup. Sharpshooter Nick Zeisloft replaced Robert Johnson in the starting lineup when Johnson went down with a sprained ankle; even if Johnson is able to give it a go, it's safe to assume he'll ease his way back. Zeisloft isn't on Johnson's level as a distributor and finisher inside the arc, but he's less turnover-prone and an equally deadly outside shooter.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Conference-only stats.
Indiana is one of the better shooting teams in the country; they're second nationally in eFG%, fifth in three-point percentage, and seventh in two-point percentage. They also do a good job crashing the boards—Bryant is especially effective in that regard—and their weak point is turnovers; aside from Zeisloft, who pretty much just catches and shoots, every rotation player has a turnover rate of 16 or higher.
The key to cracking Indiana's defense is finding a way to generate good looks from the outside; the Hoosiers finished second in the B1G in 3PA/FGA allowed and their opponents score just 27% of their points on threes—for comparison, Michigan gets 40% of their points from beyond the arc. Michigan couldn't accomplish this in the first matchup, going 7/23 from three-point distance.
THE KEYS
Don't go on a ten-minute scoring drought. Please and thank you.
Fire away in transition. To keep up with IU's powerful offense, Michigan is going to have to get some points on the fast break. Thankfully, the Hoosiers are one of the more turnover-prone teams in the country. Duncan Robinson finally got his shot going against Northwestern and he could have a chance to build on that with spot-up looks in transition.
Break Yogi Ferrell's Charm of Eternal Youth. I mean, seriously, why hasn't anyone thought of this before?
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Indiana by 7.
Perhaps the do-or-die nature of the game will bring something extra out of Michigan, but you could've said the same thing heading into the Northwestern game and they continued not to inspire much confidence.
March 11th, 2016 at 10:21 AM ^
So many posters need to get a grip. If things are this shitty, go be a front runner and find another team to support.
Gotta take the thin times with the thick. I suggest the angry mob take this to heart:
"True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise - the other, loyalty."
Get behind this team or GTFO.
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It's ridiculous. I never said anything about honesty or looking at the situation with anything but clear eyes. The negativity is ridiculous.
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March 11th, 2016 at 11:03 AM ^
I appreciate their and your passion.
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March 11th, 2016 at 11:01 AM ^
It isn't an either / or proposition to begin with. There are plenty of dynamics at work within fandom and strong ties to Michigan.
I'm guessing the majority will always be loyal, therefore there's no need to issue a GTFO comment because your loyalty can't tolerate a little dissent.
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March 11th, 2016 at 11:22 AM ^
I just choose to not take a massive shit on this team when they're struggling. However, this
forum has jumped the shark.
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March 11th, 2016 at 11:34 AM ^
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shouldn't we have one of those 12 for 14 from 3 in the first half, kinda games?
We better not see anybody finishing with only 2 fouls.
Leave no bullets left in the gun.
March 11th, 2016 at 10:18 AM ^
I'm nervous. Beilein's undefeated in opening-round BTT action (9-0) but is 1-7 the the next day, when it seems like the grind of playing twice in 24 hours catches up to the team's legs.
We did play well in Atlantis this year after losing the opener, so maybe that's something - though that was with LeVert in the lineup.
March 11th, 2016 at 10:10 AM ^
Michigan's opening opponent has been an 8 seed or worse every year with one exception (2011). That's partly luck and partly because we just haven't been seeded high very often.
When you're facing 8s and 9s and double-digit seeds, you're facing teams you should beat. Conversely, that second game has repeatedly been against rock-solid Wisconsin and OSU teams—opponents we didn't have much luck against during the regular season either.
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March 11th, 2016 at 10:56 AM ^
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March 11th, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^
Perhaps, but Beilein's NCAA tournament record is pretty strong, despite having faced a lot of good opponents. There, you never have to play on consecutive days. I think his teams, with their strong emphasis on outside shooting, are particularly vulnerable to fatigue when playing on consecutive days.
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March 11th, 2016 at 10:09 AM ^
Its high time for Duncan to catch fire, it would also be nice to see Dawkins impersonate GRIII above the rim a few times.
GO BLUE
March 11th, 2016 at 10:34 AM ^
A second straight game for a team that relies on jump shooting isn't great. Dakich can't see the floor today, Indiana is too good offensively. I don't care if it means Walton plays 40 minutes it just can't happen. The auto bench can't happen (it will). The win yesterday did nothing for us on any updated brackets, win today or its the nit. Its pretty simple.
March 11th, 2016 at 10:58 AM ^
I was hoping Indiana would lose to First Round Bye.
March 11th, 2016 at 11:50 AM ^
on the computer? Is ESPN or BTN streaming this?
March 11th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^
It's on WatchESPN.
holy shit
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