THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Obligatory. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE STAKES

A win and Michigan likely secures an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. A loss almost certainly relegates Michigan to the NIT. The stakes don't get much higher.

THE LAST TIME

Let's not talk about the last time.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

*Robert Johnson has missed IU's last three games with a high ankle sprain; while there hasn't been a definitive update on his status, there's a decent chance he's available to play. Forward Juwan Morgan's status is also up in the air after he appeared to aggravate a shoulder injury on Sunday against Maryland.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Covered in detail in the preview of the regular-season matchup. Sharpshooter Nick Zeisloft replaced Robert Johnson in the starting lineup when Johnson went down with a sprained ankle; even if Johnson is able to give it a go, it's safe to assume he'll ease his way back. Zeisloft isn't on Johnson's level as a distributor and finisher inside the arc, but he's less turnover-prone and an equally deadly outside shooter.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

Indiana is one of the better shooting teams in the country; they're second nationally in eFG%, fifth in three-point percentage, and seventh in two-point percentage. They also do a good job crashing the boards—Bryant is especially effective in that regard—and their weak point is turnovers; aside from Zeisloft, who pretty much just catches and shoots, every rotation player has a turnover rate of 16 or higher.

The key to cracking Indiana's defense is finding a way to generate good looks from the outside; the Hoosiers finished second in the B1G in 3PA/FGA allowed and their opponents score just 27% of their points on threes—for comparison, Michigan gets 40% of their points from beyond the arc. Michigan couldn't accomplish this in the first matchup, going 7/23 from three-point distance.

THE KEYS

Don't go on a ten-minute scoring drought. Please and thank you.

Fire away in transition. To keep up with IU's powerful offense, Michigan is going to have to get some points on the fast break. Thankfully, the Hoosiers are one of the more turnover-prone teams in the country. Duncan Robinson finally got his shot going against Northwestern and he could have a chance to build on that with spot-up looks in transition.

Break Yogi Ferrell's Charm of Eternal Youth. I mean, seriously, why hasn't anyone thought of this before?

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Indiana by 7.

Perhaps the do-or-die nature of the game will bring something extra out of Michigan, but you could've said the same thing heading into the Northwestern game and they continued not to inspire much confidence.