CFP Rankings DIscussion Thread: Week 4
Use this thread for your thoughts, predictions, and analysis of tonight's college football playoff rankings which are set to be released at 7pm.
Here are my predictions:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Iowa (more impressive than ND this week)
4. Notre Dame (needs an impressive win Saturday night to stay in it)
5. Michigan State (biggest jump of the week going ON the ROAD with a backup QB)
6. Oklahoma
7. Baylor
8. Ohio State (as much as I hate to say it they are still in it)
9. Florida (unimpressive again)
10. Michigan (top 2 loss team, the NW common opponent common sense takes over)
November 24th, 2015 at 11:17 AM ^
November 24th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^
Agreed, and I think that they have to win IMPRESSIVELY Saturday night in Palo Alto or they get jumped.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
Hmm, I think a win of any margin over a #10-12 ranked Stanford will keep them in the top 4. It's not like Stanford sucks
November 24th, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^
I would love to see nd get thoroughly dominated by stanford, but win on a last second fluke play. So nd will look unimpressive AND stanford will pick up their 3rd loss and we will then move past them.
November 24th, 2015 at 4:29 PM ^
Eff Notre Dame - don't want them any where near a NY6 bowl or the championship.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
Stanford is ND's last shot. They have to win convincingly to be in the top 4 if Oklahoma and MSU/Iowa win out.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^
I think if ND wins by any margin that its impressive in itself and the committee will look at not only ND losing its starting QB, DT, TE, RB, CB and some other guys and now this week losing their best cover corner and 2nd RB. Frankly I consider what ND is doing right now is more impressive than OSU last year up to this point.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
My prediction is Iowa will lost this week to Nebreska, MSU will win, Michigan beats OSU, then Iowa beats MSU in the B1G champ game. Should Iowa still be in the Playoff? then Michigan in the Rosebowl?
November 24th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^
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November 24th, 2015 at 11:44 AM ^
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November 24th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
rooting interest for the NY 6 if we win. NO Houston. NO Navy. NO Memphis, etc. One of those teams gets in. The job of the committee is to make "the most compelling matchups" with them teams they have to work from. Very much hoping they don't find Michigan v. any of those teams very compelling. Rose Bowl would be nice, but so would ND in the Fiesta Bowl, FSU in the Peach. Just no highest ranked mid-major opponent. That would be a letdown.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^
If Nebraska manages to beat Iowa, they would have beaten the top two big ten teams in that scenario. Nebraska to playoffs!
November 24th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^
ALL games matter
November 24th, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^
Iowa would still have a decent resume:
-1 win over a top 10 team (MSU)
-1 win over a top 20 team (NW)
-2 wins over fringe top 25 teams (UW, Pitt)
-1 loss to 6-6 Nebraska
Oklahoma resume:
-1 win over a top 10 team (Baylor)
-1 win over a top 15-20 team (OK State)
-1 win over a top 25 team (TCU)
-1 win over a fringe top 25 team (Tennessee)
-1 loss to 4-8 Texas
ND resume:
-2 wins over top 15-20 teams (Stanford, Navy)
-1 win over a top 25 team (Temple)
-2 wins over fringe top 25 teams (Pitt, USC)
-1 loss to 13-0 Clemson
Tough call.
November 24th, 2015 at 1:39 PM ^
November 24th, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
Stanford has not shown up in a couple of games this year as well (NW game). But they seem to be hitting stride and I think this could actually be a blow out. ND IMO is overrated again this year even though they hung with Clemson.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
What is your criteria for over ratedness?
November 24th, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^
have played one team that is ranked right now and they lost. I understand that ND knocked a couple of teams out of the rankings but Temple and Georgia Tech just don't jump off the page. They also gave up a lot of points to some bad offenses and just got by a bad Boston College team last week. They also don't have an opportunity to impress in a conference title game and I believe that will hurt them this year and will continue to hurt them going forward. It doesn't help that neither Texas or (YT)USC can be considered marquee wins this year. Michigan State has beaten Oregon(top 20), Michigan(top 10) and OSU(top5) and beaten all of them, two coming on the road. They also have an opportunity for another top 5 win on a nuetral field coming if they can survive this week. The two schedules are not remotely comparable and State will be in the playoff if they win out. I think it comes down to ND v. Oklahoma if State wins out and that is where the Texas head to head comparison will strongly favor ND.
November 24th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^
This is tricky... ND isn't a scary team like a Bama, but few teams are this year. What ND has accomplished given all the injuries is equally...actually more impressive than what OSU did last year despite losing two QBs. That said, barely beating a 3 win BC team in a "home" game isnt that impressive this time of the year. in fact, that's the story of NDs season: Just getting by against teams with major issues. Ask yourself, do you think this ND team would hang with Clemson again with certainty? Bama? That said, Iowa might be suspect. If ND handes Stanford, that could quiet the doubters... but I dont think this ND team has done much being half-way in two underperforming conferences.
Note: Before you run off and quote us on your other message boards, this comment comes from someone with several family members very active in ND alumni community. Even some of them agree with me. :-)
November 24th, 2015 at 2:48 PM ^
I have watched several Stanford games this year (yeah WatchESPN) and they are definetly getting better. McCaffery is unreal. I agree, ND is going to get hammered.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
I would be surprised if we were Top 10, just because of the AP/Coaches polls.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:36 AM ^
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November 24th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^
Seems to have completely ignored both the AP and Coaches polls in their rankings.
I think we're going to be right at # 10 this week. Maybe 9.
MSU doesn't make the top 4 yet, but I think Iowa does.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
One damn dropped punt away from the top four.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:20 AM ^
Unbelievable.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
+1
But on the other hand, we got pretty lucky with Minnesota.
And no, I'm not talking about the goalline stand.
The catch that led to the goalline stand looked like a touchdown in real time. If the receiver doesn't put a knee down a split second early, we lose. It was the right call, but we were inches away on a twenty yard pass from losing that game.
November 24th, 2015 at 1:31 PM ^
true buttttt, if we swap those games would we have the inside track to rep our division? Serious q, no snark.
November 25th, 2015 at 12:00 AM ^
Yes, we would have been better off losing to Minny and beating MSU. Our record would be the same, but we would control our own fate.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^
November 24th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^
1.) Alabama
2.) Clemson
3.) Notre Dame
4.) Iowa
5.) Michigan State 6.) Oklahoma 7.) Ohio State
11.) Michigan
November 24th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^
November 24th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
I think that Oklahoma is playing the second best of any team in the country right now (after Bama) and deserve to be ranked number 4.
1. Clemson
2. Bama
3. Iowa
4. Oklahoma
5. MSU
6. ND
7. Baylor
8.OSU
9. OK State
10. Florida
We're at 11 or 12 and UNC is the other. I'm going to guess UM 11 and UNC 12.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
I honestly think that Iowa is the FOURTH best team in the Big Ten but if MSU doesn't have Cook, they can beat them in Indy (if that's how it plays out).
I honestly think PSU has a great chance this weekend in EL. Call me crazy.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^
November 24th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
I don't think you are crazy. I think, despite the rankings and Gameday in Columbus, we saw two underperforming football teams play bad football in a bad football game and someone had to win. MSU was less bad and hopefully PSU can pull it together and get a passing game going while shutting down the MSU offense.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
but is correct about PSU having a chance if Tom Cook doesn't play.
Penn State has the D-Line to contain MSU's rushing game (they only scored 17 against OSU despite minimal OSU offensive movement) and MSU's secondary is suspect. Hackenberg won't have a lot of time, so PSU will have to run quick developing routes, but they'll have a shot. Throw it if it's there, throw it away if not and go play defense.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
I don't think you are crazy. I think, despite the rankings and Gameday in Columbus, we saw two underperforming football teams play bad football in a bad football game and someone had to win. MSU was less bad and hopefully PSU can pull it together and get a passing game going while shutting down the MSU offense.
November 24th, 2015 at 12:18 PM ^
November 24th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
This week's rankings will still be meaningless, but I'm interested to see how the committee handles 3-6. I think a case can be made that Oklahoma's resume is now more impressive than Iowa's or Notre Dame's. And MSU's could be the best of the bunch.
Nothing the committee does will shock me by any means, but I almost expect them to go old coach's poll style and just bump teams up who won figuring that the last two weeks will clean up any mess.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^
How I'd rank them.
1. Clemson
2. 'Bama
3. Iowa
4. Notre Dame
5 Oklahom
6. Baylor
7. MSU
8. Ohio State
9. Florida
10 Michigan
November 24th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
3. Iowa
4. Oklahoma
5. ND
6. Sparty
7. Baylor
8. tOSU
9. (NT)OSU
10. UM
11. Florida
If we are ranked below Florida there's a major SEC bias and the Committee is bad and should feel bad.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^
Pretty sure Baylor went into Stillwater and won with their back up QB too.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^
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November 24th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^
I dont understand why everyone is picking Michigan to be above Stanford this week. They weren't last week, and nothing has changed. I think some people need a small dose of reality...
November 24th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
You're probably right, but I also don't think the committee is spending a ton of time debating the rankings past the top 5 or 6 teams. Us or Stanford will only be decided if it matters following both of us winning two more games. If that happens, I expect the fact that Stanford's second loss came to Northwestern to be a big benefit to us.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^
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November 24th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
Why not? We have a common opponent - NW - and we killed NW while they lost to NW. It's not unreasonable at this point in time.
November 24th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^
2) Alabama
3) Iowa
4) Notre Dame
I'm leaving Oklahoma out for now because they still have that bad, bad loss to Texas. If Notre Dame wins this weekend, I bet they get in over Oklahoma. Their only loss is on the road by 2 to the #1 team in America.
Still baffles me that somehow Iowa is in all of this. They'd take an absolute beating from Alabama if they made the playoff.
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November 24th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
though the same thing until I watched them for a few weeks. I think they are pretty good and my money would be on them to beat State with Cook or without him as of right now.