Scenario to get UM into playoff
Yes its a long shot but this is IMO Michigan's most liklely path to the playoff:
- UM over OSU
- PSU over MSU
- Iowa over Nebraska (they can't lose this)
- UM over Iowa
- Clemson over UNC (concede spot 1 to Clemson so that UNC isn't a threat)
- Ok St over Oklahoma (think 2 loss Michigan can get in over 1 loss Ok St..at least more likely than 1 loss OU)
- TCU over Baylor
- Alabama should probably beat Florida too unless Florida loses to FSU. I could easily see them taking 2 loss Bama over UM to get 2 SEC teams in there.
ND vs Stanford is interesting. I think they could get in both ways, but it would be harder if ND won. I think the strength of Michigan over OSU/Iowa is bigger than Stanford over ND/P12S champ. Plus Northwestern is a common opponent and we know how that worked out for both teams.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^
Here we go again...
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^
even I have stopped trying to come up with ways for this to happen and it was near addiction/OCD levels with me for a while.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
I now think "scenarios so we have to stop seeing scenarios threads"
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^
I thought we had a 10-15% chance of getting there if OSU beat MSU. We still would have needed a lot of things to go right, but it was reasonable enough to consider. Now, with MSU only needing to beat PSU to shut us out of the picture...not so much.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
But if PSU beats MSU we certainly have a shot.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
Exactly so its not a 0 chance. The scenario I posted does not require a bunch of upsets or improbable things happening. The only major upset is PSU over MSU, which based on how sluggish MSU looks at times is not out of the question.
I can understand 'playoff scenario fatigue' but I definitely think its still a possibility, albeit not a strong one. Keep the faith guys.
There are 2 undefeated teams (one we have a chance to leap by beating H2H)
There are 8 one loss teams. Of those 8:
-1 we can knock out on our own (OSU)
-3 are playing games that they will likely be underdogs in (ND at Stanford, Florida v Alabama, Oklahoma State v Oklahoma)
That leaves 4 teams (5 with UM) for 3 spots. Bama has 1, so 4 teams for 2 spots. MSU has to lose to PSU obviously, so 3 teams for 2 spots if that one upset occurs.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^
I agree we don't need to continue having threads like this, but I don't agree with you... at all.
Win the Big Ten and Stanford beats Notre Dame. That's all it takes. Pick a final four that doesn't include Michigan under that scenario? Baylor, Clemson, and Iowa would be the only possible one-loss teams left out. Clemson would be the only one with a case. Michigan's conference championship and the fluky nature of the MSU loss would propel us into the playoffs over any one of those teams. Stanford wouldn't eclipse us as the Northwestern game becomes the trump card.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 2:57 PM ^
No. No, you don't.
November 23rd, 2015 at 3:40 PM ^
I don't think we're getting to a playoff and would put those chances very, very low. However, that's mostly because I don't think we're going to win the B1G championship because I don't think Sparty loses.
If you think there's a chance that we win the B1G championship, then you should think there's a chance we make the playoff. Someone will likely get in with two losses or one loss and no championship. Why not Michigan in that scenario?
Again, I don't think this happens because we have to win two very tough games and MSU has to pull the ultimate Sparty Nooo, but I don't think it's delusional to consider how this might play out. Wishful, yes, but there's a lot of football left.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^
It isn't happening, the only trump card we had was beating two top 5 teams back to back and even then it would be an iffy argument to get in over a 1 loss team. At this point utah has a shot at not finishing outside the top 25 and osul could drop pretty far with another loss.
It also involves msu losing next, if this week taught as anything is that trusting anyone else to do your work for you is going to end in dissapointment. Beat osu and see what happens, not worth worrying about what other teams do until msu losses. Especially since if msu wins I don't want them in the playoff so I would end up rooting for opposit outcomes.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 2:19 PM ^
I'll bet you the OP made this thread while on the clock and theoretically "working"...as are many of the respondants!
Why would anyone stop making threads no matter how repetitive and unrealistic, and how can you ask us to stop replying to said, when they're essentially getting paid to do it?
But just to add fuel - review msu-rutgers, of any of a few of their other games (including the almost cosmic level of luck it took to beat us) and then convince yourself there's NO WAY they could lose to psu.
It certainly could happen, but I ain't holding my breath! I'm concerned with us taking care of our business; any other thing that does or doesn't fall into place after that is completely out of the hands of James Joseph Harbaugh and his Merry Men!
Well, IF we beat osu, psu beats msu, then we beat Iowa, he could shamelessly lobby & whine like Urbz did in '06 - but I don't think he will! He'll say the Goal is to win the B1G and go to the Rose Bowl, just like Bo said, just like I've saying in every one of these CFP scenarios!!!
November 23rd, 2015 at 3:08 PM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 3:15 PM ^
You nailed it....best 15 minutes of work I've had this month :)
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
Just in the B1G, we need to beat osu and Sackenberg has to win in E. Landfill...but shoot for the moon and if you miss, sit amongst those stars.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:11 PM ^
ad nauseum
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
On the solid verbal, they basically said they don't think the B1G is getting in unless it is Iowa undefeated.
I would somewhat agree with that. MSU could have 4-5 losses just as easily as IU could have had 4-5 more wins. Michigan would have a strong argument if MSU finds it's way out, but it is tough to justify a 2 loss team making it in over a 1 loss team
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
A one loss MSU would most definitely get in.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:22 PM ^
over what 1 loss team? Oklahoma? OkState? Notre Dame? Alabama?
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:37 PM ^
Oklahoma and Oklahoma State can only provide one team of the four. Assume Clemson and Alabama both win out and are in, that leaves one spot for Notre Dame or a one-loss MSU. Have you looked at ND's wins? Their best wins would be @Stanford, Navy, @Pitt, and "@"Temple. Think that's better then wins @Michigan, @Ohio State, vs. Oregon, and vs. Iowa? Sure, ND wins the "best loss" factor, but I don't think the rest of the resume is close enough to make up for it.
ND needs to beat Stanford and hope we win the Big Ten. Otherwise, I think they're out.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^
Well, then, we will agree to disagree, and we will hope that somehow it all doesn't matter and Michigan makes it in
November 23rd, 2015 at 4:10 PM ^
The committee could give ND a little name recognition bump over MSU.
November 23rd, 2015 at 5:30 PM ^
for the committee to decide between a 1-loss MSU team and one-loss ND. ND also has a win over USC which could win the PAC12 South. Sure it has four losses but that's another quality win if they beat UCLA.
It's unlikly ND wins at Stanford though, and that would certainly give a 1-loss B1G champion a playoff spot, and possibly a 2-loss B1G champion.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
don't really think it is that cut and dry. Let me say this, they should be in in that scenario, but I can't say for sure it will be. At this point I do think ND would have to beat Stanford big to keep State out. I think the Committee wants to put ND in but they looked pretty bad this past weekend. I do not think State would get in over a one loss Oklahoma team even if they did beat Iowa.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^
If State beats Iowa and Oklahoma or Stanford lose again, I think State gets into the playoff. Even if State is going up against one-loss Oklahoma I think they might get in. Oklahoma did lose to texas and baylor/tcu have been banged up recently so those wins arent really as strong as they look on paper. State would have wins over Iowa, OSU, us, a surging Oregon and be 12-1 vs Oklahomas wins over Baylor, TCU, Okie-state and an 11-1 record. I think it'd go to state imo
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:52 PM ^
A 2 loss Stanford is not a threat to take a playoff spot from a 1 loss MSU.
November 23rd, 2015 at 5:44 PM ^
State actually doesn't want Stanford to lose again because it will clear things up a lot of ND loses.
November 23rd, 2015 at 4:23 PM ^
It seems inconsistent to discount Oklahoma's wins against Baylor/TCU because those teams have been banged up lately, but yet give State full credit for their Oregon win. If you're going to evaluate based on how teams were playing at the time, the Oregon win ought to be discounted. Didn't the Ducks start 3 and 3?
Baylor (2 games remaining) and Oklahoma (1 game) winning out could really bolster a bid from a Big 12 team.
November 23rd, 2015 at 5:49 PM ^
State's win over Oregon would be its fourth best, which appears far better than Oklahoma's fourth best win (@Tenn?). Not even discounting wins over Baylor, TCU and Ok St. those won't be as good as States wins over OSU, us and Iowa. State would have a better resume than Oklahoma in the W/L column. Would be interesting to see how much the committee actually looks at "how" those wins were acheived.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:29 PM ^
That has to be assuming that ND beats Stanford, right? Stanford won't beat out a one-loss MSU (or even a two-loss Michigan). And no conference is getting a second team in at the cost of a P5 champion with one or two losses.
I don't think ND keeps a one-loss MSU out, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if that proves to be the case.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:14 PM ^
Not unrealistic. I would think the Big XII is only going to get one team in though. So it probably doesn't really matter who wins between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Baylor lost to Oklahoma but beat Oklahoma State so whoever finishes higher between those three probably gets the spot. It would probably help us to move up though if Oklahoma and Baylor both their their second losses.
Stanford situation is interesting. If we were to beat OSU and then and undefeated Iowa in the Big Ten title game I would think that puts us in over them. Just have to hope they beat Notre Dame though otherwise they're getting the 4th spot and deservedly so.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:15 PM ^
This is the best CFP thread I've read all day.
November 23rd, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^
You should've seen how good it was BEFORE they deleted half the comments replying to some jackass using the name of a deceased villain from Breaking Bad!!!
Unless they delete this too and you never see it.....
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^
continue to win. That's it.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
All of this is pointless unless PSU beats MSU.
One week left, probably set to lose a tiebreaker. One thread should be enough.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:25 PM ^
So that about 10 teams can claim they should be in to show how damn stupid the 4-team format is.
November 23rd, 2015 at 4:28 PM ^
Yeah because 17 teams claiming they should be in an 8 team playoff would be much better.
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:26 PM ^
- Stanford knocks off ND
- PAC12 South (USC/UCLA) beats Stanford in CCG
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:27 PM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
Could you do this for the Rose Bowl also? haha...
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
JUST BEAT OSU....... them drink and sit back to watch the rest play out. No matter what happens I will be happy (but in the back of my mind be thinking about the fumbled punt that cost us the shot at the playoffs).
November 23rd, 2015 at 1:54 PM ^
cant stop thinking about it in fact...beating Ohio will help