Rooting Interests for Saturday with Vegas Odds
4 things need to happen in the next 2 weeks IMO to have a remote chance of playoffs (JimMora.gif here); 2 of them have to happen this week.
UM over PSU; OSU over MSU.
Then next week
UM over OSU; Stanford over Notre Dame
Those are the musts if you believe ACC, SEC, B12 get 3 spots. if you believe B12 doesn't get a spot then you have more variability. I happen to believe 1 loss OK or undefeated OK State get in (1 loss Baylor or TCU does not). I could be wrong.
Cheer for | Home | Away | Line |
Good guys | PSU | UM | UM -3.5 |
Meteor* | OSU | MSU | OSU -13.5 |
Flutie | B.C. | ND | ND -15.5 |
Cal | Stanford | Cal | Stanford -11 |
UCLA | Utah | UCLA | Utah -1.5 |
Baylor? | OK State | Baylor | OK St -1 |
TCU | OK | TCU | Off -Boykin |
Iowa | Iowa | Purdue | Iowa -23 |
NW | Wiscy | NW | Wiscy -10 |
VATech | VATech | NC | NC -5.5 |
USC | Oregon | USC | Oregon -4 |
* if no meteor, MSU loss will suffice
============================
In terms of "great bonus if it happens" we want USC or UCLA to win out, win P12 south, and be a 3 loss P12 champion upseting Stanford. This would displace both Utah and Stanford and eliminate P12 from playoffs.
The only scenario that helps UM in B12 I believe is OK State and OK both losing at least once more. Since they face each other a week from now OK State losing this week and then winning next week would be the simple path.
Also we want Iowa and NW to win out next 2 weeks.
November 19th, 2015 at 8:34 PM ^
Just WIN Baby!!
November 19th, 2015 at 8:38 PM ^
Some chips just never fall so cant rely on that
November 19th, 2015 at 8:50 PM ^
What can you do about it?? NOTHING!
November 19th, 2015 at 9:36 PM ^
Thanks to this photo edit appearing this season, I now imagine Mark Dantonio walking around every day with a bag or two of Lay's or Ruffles or something along those lines epoxyed to his shoulder. For some reason, it puts the last eight years of his life and coaching career in a fascinating and compact perspective.
November 19th, 2015 at 11:45 PM ^
Mworkk
November 19th, 2015 at 11:34 PM ^
"Just win baby" is such a cringe worthy phrase. It doesn't translate to text at all.
November 20th, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^
Reminds me of "Let's eat Grandma" vs. "Let's eat, Grandma"
November 19th, 2015 at 8:37 PM ^
Go Blue! Beat the Nittany Lions!
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November 19th, 2015 at 8:38 PM ^
ACC Key Games:
November 19th, 2015 at 8:46 PM ^
Didnt realize Booker was out - huge miss for Utah. Wilson is up and down week to week.
Booker is the nation's leader in carries per game with 26.8 carries
https://www.ksl.com/?sid=37429531&nid=635&fm=home_page&s_cid=toppick2
If Utah somehow wins out (wins south, USC loses 1 game, beat Stanford) the injury could still keep them out vs UM as committe supposedly counts major injuries against a team. But that guy is the cornerstone of the offense.
I agree on VA Tech with a potential upset - NC scores a boatload though.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:25 PM ^
want Utah and USC to win out? Better to have that Utah game look better and they wouldn't go to the PAC12 title game if USC wins out. There's no chance of them finishing ahead of a B1G champ Michigan if they don't play in their own title game. We'll need to look as good as possible if it comes down to a 2-loss Stanford or a 1 loss Ok State or Baylor.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:33 PM ^
Yes in a perfect world.
In a non perfect world USC has 2 very tough games to advance and help us so if they lose one Utah is a threat all the sudden. So I'd rather UCLA just take care of them this week.
USC has to beat both Oregon and UCLA...and then Stanford 3 in a row in your scenario.
Again in some perfect world that is fine but going with probabilies thats a low chance. So I' fine with a UCLA win this week and then winner of USC v UCLA going to beat Stanford.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
Theres always a chance Utah jumps us if they are Pac 12 champs. And I don't really see how USC winning out really helps us, but Oregon winning the division over Stanford absolutely does
November 19th, 2015 at 10:10 PM ^
USC owns the tiebreaker over Utah if both win out. So Utah would not have a chance at a 11th win.
USC or UCLA winning out gets them both in over Utah and either beating Stanford eliminates the P12 from a spot.
November 20th, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^
this point I think we want Utah to lose. They will remain a "good loss' even if they lose another game and it would serve our interests very much if Stanford was playing an unranked team(or close to it) when they get to the PAC 12 championship. For SOS purposes Utah winning would be good but I think we are getting beyond the strength of first-game-of-the-season opponents as a real deciding factor. Stanford is biggest obstacle in our way even if quite a bit clears out in the Big 12. Michigan ending the season with two wins over top 5 teams with Stanford beating ND and unranked Pac 12 team is a lot better than Stanford ending the season with an ND win and then beating a Top 10 Pac 12 team. In scenario 1 I think we jump them in scenario B I think they go. Lot of stuff needs to happen before this is even a real discussion though.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:54 PM ^
I was going to make the same point about the ACC. If UNC knocks off Clemson, I think that eliminates the ACC from having a team in the playoffs (UNC has to many teams to jump to have a legit shot).
November 20th, 2015 at 9:14 AM ^
I don't think UNC needs another loss. The rest of the ACC is bad enough that a one loss UNC ACC champion does not make the playoffs.
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November 19th, 2015 at 8:53 PM ^
Let's say Michigan loses to PSU and MSU beats OSU, then Michigan beats OSU and PSU beats MSU. That gives us a 4 way tie in the division, each team with 2 losses. Who wins the tie breaker?
November 19th, 2015 at 9:01 PM ^
Penn State
November 19th, 2015 at 9:02 PM ^
PSU would.
Under that scenario, the first of seven tiebreaker rules goes into effect.
"1. The records of the three [or four] teams tied will be compared against each other."
Penn State and Michigan State each would be 2-1 within the group. Ohio State and Michigan would be 1-2 and, thus, eliminated from consideration.
After that, the first two-team tiebreaker is head-to-head result. Penn State would go to Indianapolis based on a victory over Michigan State.
http://www.mcall.com/sports/college/psu/nittany-lines/mc-penn-state-foo…
November 19th, 2015 at 9:02 PM ^
PSU, I do believe. This is because PSU was clearly punished for something that never happened, and therefore they deserve this make-up call...
November 19th, 2015 at 9:03 PM ^
Who wins? Chaos wins.
November 19th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
If the nightmare scenario happens this Saturday and Michigan loses while MSU wins, this is definitely something to root for! We don't go to the championship game, but neither do MSU or OSU, besides we beat OSU and will get a good bowl game for a good shot at a very solid 10-3 season.
It's funny, could B1G champion 11-2 PSU with wins over Michigan, MSU, and Iowa in the last three weeks of the season have an argument for a playoff spot? I guess the big 10 probably gets left out in this scenario, oh well. But of course, the chances of this happening are incredibly miniscule.
EDIT: Whoops, forgot PSU lost to Northwestern. Hey, doesn't that mean we should beat PSU by transitivity? /s
November 19th, 2015 at 8:53 PM ^
the games themselves are second tier. Let's just PLAY and WATCH and ROOT for our team. Speculate all you wish but your wishes do not affect the outcomes. Carpe diem! Enjoy the moment!
November 19th, 2015 at 10:24 PM ^
Well considering we're the earliest game, we can do that and then enjoy these games with interest.
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November 19th, 2015 at 9:11 PM ^
First and foremost, we MUST win this weekend, of course. Then, I wouldn't mind seeing lots and lots of two-loss teams lose again. That would give us a "buffer" allowing us to lose to OSU and still get into an NY6 bowl as, perhaps, the highest ranked three-loss team. We've been the highest or second-highest-ranked 2 loss team, and Ole Miss got into the Peach Bowl last year as the highest ranked three loss team. Obviously we want to see a win against the Buckeyes but still making an NY6 in Harbaugh Year One would be a nice consolation prize, especially if MSU got bumped down to the Citrus Bowl.
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November 19th, 2015 at 9:17 PM ^
Here's to Alabama losing to Western Mississippi Tech!
November 19th, 2015 at 9:23 PM ^
I'm rooting for Michigan and the earthquake
November 19th, 2015 at 9:27 PM ^
Remember when a DA was murdered for knowing too much about Sandusky?
http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/15/us/ray-gricar-missing-prosecutor/
November 19th, 2015 at 9:47 PM ^
but with OSU winning by 3 TDs.
They get moved to #1 or #2 and then ...
November 19th, 2015 at 10:30 PM ^
Agreed on all points, I think.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:36 PM ^
To lose every game. Forever.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:43 PM ^
If it came down to between ND and us for the final spot...well, to HELL with the chickenshits! I would like to think the playoff committee knows why there is no head-to-head reference. This opinion will stand for at least a decade.
November 19th, 2015 at 10:49 PM ^
It's amazing how much more fun the end of the college football season is when Michigan is in the race. No more playing for pride or playing to upset Ohio State's season. I think we all expected this to be the case eventually, but to be here in year one is incredible. Let's take care of business and root hard for a Sparty loss! Let's gooooooo!!
November 20th, 2015 at 7:48 AM ^
I don't like how that is shrinking.
November 20th, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^
that's what she said.
November 20th, 2015 at 8:07 AM ^
If Utah runs the table from here on out, I doubt the committee would put Michigan in above them. Their only losses are a bad one at USC and OT at Arizona. The head-to-head would be hard to overcome. So we want them to fare well, but still pick up another loss.
November 20th, 2015 at 8:30 AM ^
True but Utah wouldn't have wins over Ohio state and Iowa. That would put us over
November 20th, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^
...particularly if Rudock continues to shine. Then one could argue that the current Michigan team is a very differnet one.
Also bear in mind Utah would have wins over UCLA and Stanford in this scenario.
If in the end they consider all else equal, they would put Utah forward.
Regardless it requires a lot to fall into place.
November 20th, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^
But only after taking OSU in 12 OTs.