Michigan -13 at Indiana

Submitted by BursleyHall82 on

Michigan's favored by 13 on Saturday. I think that's right about where it opened. The line sounds about right. Other B1G lines of interest for Saturday:

Ohio State -16.5 at Illinois

MSU -15.5 at home against Maryland

Iowa -12.5 at home against Minnesota

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UMAmaizinBlue

November 10th, 2015 at 1:54 PM ^

Expect that line to move in Michigan's favor by kickoff, perhaps to 3 scores like -17 to -21. Also surprised by the line for OSU vs. Illinois. I know OSU has struggled a bit, but I think JT Barrett is a much better QB than Jones so far and will lead OSU to a huge win over the Illini (I'm talking 30+ points).

Joined: 09/23/2009

MGoPoints: 36271

Dubs

November 10th, 2015 at 2:03 PM ^

I'm in the same boat.  I thought it was pretty much common knowledge that Barrett runs the offense more efficiently than Cardale.  I figured that would at least account for something from Vegas...

Illinois is hard to peg though: they aren't Rutgers bad (seemed to play Iowa tough away), but then they go and lose to Penn St. 39-0.

Joined: 05/30/2011

MGoPoints: 8356

Bleedmaizeblue

November 10th, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^

Does anyone else think Indiana matches up really well against us? They spread you out, they will make our LBs drop in coverage which has been one of our weaknesses, and it's their senior day. They have given good teams fits well into the fourth quarter. Our running game has been poor lately, and if that keeps up then our defense will be on the field a lot and they'll get tired trying to run all over the field in coverage all game. I'm uncomfortable at best thinking about the possibilities this weekend...

Joined: 07/11/2013

MGoPoints: 2919

MI Expat NY

November 10th, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^

I sort of feel like their offense is what we're best suited for stopping. We go small and take away the easy yards with dominating corners and Peppers.  Our D-line wins the battle up front with a good, not great line.  Our LBs get easy plays because the IU line has to hold doubles longer in the run game and they get clear assignments in the passing game.  

IU will make some plays, they're a good offense.  But I'm not too worried that they'll be able to move the ball consistently.  

Joined: 07/24/2008

MGoPoints: 8641

Zok

November 10th, 2015 at 2:17 PM ^

Non Lewis DBs have not been spread out onto island as much either...so IMO will be easy to avoid Lewis for IU.

If UM DL straight blows people up its all moot bc Non-Lewis DBs can hang with IU WRs for the first few seconds. IU knows that though, I imagine they get the bal out real quick and hope to break something. I agree they won't consistently move the ball much this way. But they are goos at O. They will break some.

 

Joined: 03/24/2009

MGoPoints: 689

Zok

November 10th, 2015 at 2:12 PM ^

I think UM's secondary (outside of Lewis) could get exposed a bit.

Key will be consistent DL pressue on obvious passing downs makeing the DBs look good. Safeties have given up some plays in the running and passing game (and taking some away too) as of late.

 

Honestly UMs best D could be there O. IU has not been able to stop the run much...but UMs run has regressed some as of late (Minn has a good D but Rutgers does not). Hopefully the OL has a good day and the RBs are starting to get healthy. I think the O could keep IU off the field with special teams giving us good field position on O (and D).

Just can't let special teams or the O give away any points. this UM O is not ready for a shoot out.

I would say its defniitely a classic UM game to lose sort of situation. IU is capable of stealing one though.

Joined: 03/24/2009

MGoPoints: 689

tjohn7

November 10th, 2015 at 2:37 PM ^

If Michigan can establish the run I think this game should be pretty smooth.  Their defense shouldn't be much of a problem.  Only thing that worries me is Indiana getting some of those Mitch Leidner miracle passes and somehow managing to keep our D on the field.  I say 31-17 Michigan.

Joined: 09/29/2014

MGoPoints: 13172

True Blue Grit

November 10th, 2015 at 2:42 PM ^

plays like he did against Rutgers - which is very possible given IU's lousy pass defense.  Also, since IU's pass rush isn't as aggressive as Rutgers, I'm guessing Rudock will have even more time to throw.  Obviously, our defense has to show up and play at least solidly.  Plus we have our special teams as our ace in the hole. 

Joined: 01/21/2011

MGoPoints: 32234

LSAClassOf2000

November 10th, 2015 at 2:03 PM ^

Here's the TeamRankings matchup for our game, which sort of backs up the line really:

Offense Michigan Indiana
Yards/Play 5.3 5.6
Points/Play 0.443 0.383
Rush Play % 57.64% 54.47%
Pass Play % 42.36% 45.53%
Completion % 61.26% 57.71%
3D Conv % 42.31% 38.21%
RZ Scoring % 94.74% 84.62%
Defense Michigan Indiana
Opp Yards/Play 3.7 6.1
Opp Points/Play 0.185 0.448
Opp Completion % 46.91% 58.68%
Opp 3D Conv % 21.77% 42.64%
Opp RZ Scoring % 81.25% 85.71%

 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130561

chatster

November 10th, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^

If your opposition scores about four out of five times it gets to the “Red Zone,” that doesn’t reveal (1) how many times the opposition has gotten to the “Red Zone,” or (2) how many points the opposition has scored on those “Red Zone” excursions.
 
Say that your opposition scores about four out of five times it gets to the “Red Zone,” and your opposition has gotten to the “Red Zone” only 15 times in nine games, while scoring 12 of those times on nine touchdowns and three field goals, accumulating a total of 72 points, including extra points.
 
Also say that your opposition’s defense gives up scores about four out of five times when its opponents get to the “Red Zone,” and its opponents have gotten to the “Red Zone” 30 times in nine games, while scoring 24 of those times on 18 touchdowns and six field goals, accumulating a total of  144 points.
 
The “Opp RZ Scoring %” may be similar, but the end results are substantially different.  So, how meaningful is that “Opp RZ Scoring %” statistic?

Joined: 09/14/2010

MGoPoints: 26926

amaizenblue402

November 10th, 2015 at 2:16 PM ^

While I fully expect IU's offense to test us, I think our defense can make the adjustments needed to slow them down.  On the flip side, IU's defense is atrocious and we should have little trouble exploiting it.  

The game that worries me is Penn State on the road.  Remember, they have a BYE week this week to prepare for us.
 

Joined: 09/18/2010

MGoPoints: 14596

Indiana Blue

November 10th, 2015 at 2:27 PM ^

Sparty had a bye going to Nebraska.  We had a bye going to Minnesota.  I like the fact that are just playing in stride going to PSU.  Penn State and Michigan common foes:

Maryland, Rutgers & Northwestern

We are 3-0 and they are 2-1.  Our average winning margin in these games is 33 points.  In the 2 games PSU won their average margin was 13 points.

We have Harbaugh and they don't.

Go Blue!

Joined: 09/19/2010

MGoPoints: 5677

desertwolvie1

November 10th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^

I have to agree with you. It seems like bye weeks are only good if you've got a key injuries that need the extra time to heal. Otherwise the favored teams seem to come out sluggish after a bye week. And no, I have no cool charts or real data to back any of this up.



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Joined: 09/04/2011

MGoPoints: 2190

SF Wolverine

November 10th, 2015 at 2:46 PM ^

On paper, this is not a two touchdown matchup for us in my view.  But, if Indiana can't stop our ground game (with a few of those Jake Butt throws down the seam), I could easily see us with 35++ minutes of possession and a gassed dIU defense at the end of the game.  Ground game has not been especially strong last few weeks, but should be Saturday.  Get up on these guys early, and this looks like a cover, even if the lines move.

DO NOT let them stick around. 

Joined: 10/04/2010

MGoPoints: 24866