Michigan - Spoiling B1G Playoff hopes since 2015?
First MGoBoard post, so please hear me out before commencing Neg-vember.
If Michigan wins out, MSU loses to OSU (2 Ls) and OSU loses to UM (1 L late season, no B1G Title game) and we beat Iowa in the B1G Title game (1 L late season and crappy strength of schedule), I could see the B1G being left out of the top 4 CFB playoff.
I know we all despise playoff scenarios as we are likely not going to be discussed a whole lot but I have a hard time believing a two-loss conference title champ (UM), a 1-loss B1G runner-up with a bad SOS (Iowa) or a 1-loss team who didn't even make the B1G title game late in the year (OSU) jumping into the top 4.
Updated with pretty much my same scenario but whatever... I'm not here:
Updated bowl projections, with Michigan knocking Ohio State out of the Playoff
November 8th, 2015 at 2:43 PM ^
If we beat an 11-0 OSU and then 12-0 Iowa (in addition to beating IU and PSU, obviously), we might be in the playoff conversation. I would not rule it out.
November 9th, 2015 at 1:52 AM ^
is for Iowa to remain undefeated.
Minnesota might not be an easy game for them and Iowa does play at Nebraska...Iowa staying undefeated is far from a given.
November 8th, 2015 at 5:22 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 5:24 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 6:38 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 5:58 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 6:23 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 6:43 PM ^
I think the Big Ten Champ and the SEC Champ, no matter who they are, are going to be in the playoff. And I think the Pac-12 Champ will be too most years. We'll have to see how it all pans out, but I am betting those two conference champs get in. Somebody is going to be wailing this year, cause ND might have a case, and Clemson looks solid unless they lose ACC Championship game. Lack of champsionship game may again hurt Big 12.
November 8th, 2015 at 2:50 PM ^
I have no problem winning out and not making the playoff. Winning the Big Ten and beating OSU is the best a 2 loss team can hope for, save winning its bowl game.
November 8th, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^
If conversation were to be restricted only to the impending game, how boring do you suppose conversations would be?
November 8th, 2015 at 3:54 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:00 PM ^
Just no.
November 8th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^
We already are the top ranked 2 loss team in the college football playoff rankings and several teams ahead of us including LSU, MSU, Memphis, and FSU all lost. We'll likely jump up to around 13 or 14 this week but for arguments sake, we beat the (as of right now) #3 team and #9 team and we're likely in. If that's the case I think it would be Clemson, Alabama, TCU and us, assuming everyone wins out. The only thing is that Notre Dame is still sitting there with Stanford. We need Standford to beat ND and the to lose to someone in order for the Big Ten to have a clear shot for a potential spot for us.
November 8th, 2015 at 3:23 PM ^
Well I can promise you that TCU won't in the playoffs haha.
I'm more than content with a Big Ten Championship and the Rose Bowl.
For the playoffs though, I think we'd likely need the Big 12 to cannibalize itself in the last few weeks. Baylor beats Oklahoma State and Oklahoma but loses to TCU. Then Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State and TCU. Maybe Texas pulls off a miracle vs. Baylor. Something of that nature.
Also, it would be huge if Stanford lost another regular season PAC 12 game, but beat Notre Dame and then won the PAC-12. Two loss Michigan is in over two loss Stanford, especially given our respective Northwestern games.
The PAC 12 and Big 12 seem like the most vulnerable to not be represented. The ACC should be in with Clemson and a two loss Michigan would be behind a two loss SEC champ, but if Notre Dame loses and we can beat out one of the former two conferences that'd be great.
November 8th, 2015 at 6:02 PM ^
I forgot TCU lost yesterday because I was looking the the CFP rankings since they come out on Tuesday instead of the most recent polls
November 8th, 2015 at 6:42 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 3:02 PM ^
We already are the top ranked 2 loss team in the college football playoff rankings and several teams ahead of us including LSU, MSU, Memphis, and FSU all lost. We'll likely jump up to around 13 or 14 this week but for arguments sake, we beat the (as of right now) #3 team and #9 team and we're likely in. If that's the case I think it would be Clemson, Alabama, TCU and us, assuming everyone wins out. The only thing is that Notre Dame is still sitting there with Stanford. We need Standford to beat ND and the to lose to someone in order for the Big Ten to have a clear shot for a potential spot for us.
November 8th, 2015 at 3:12 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 4:31 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:05 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:17 PM ^
because a 2 loss Michigan is not going to jump a 1-loss power 5 conference champ. 1 power 5 conference champ is going to get left out regardless, not to mention ND is still lurking, so possibly 2 conference champs could get left out.
Going to need to hope for upsets in the conference title games where a weaker division champ knocks off the higher ranked team, and even then it might not be enough.
November 8th, 2015 at 7:03 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:25 PM ^
get selected to the CF playoffs, there's a certain 2-loss team (and their fans) going to be feeling huge disrespekt...
November 8th, 2015 at 3:24 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:57 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 7:06 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:09 PM ^
/ifs
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November 8th, 2015 at 3:11 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:14 PM ^
You really shouldn't ask to not be negged to start off your post. Just saying.
November 8th, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:15 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 3:17 PM ^
big games in the Big Ten, Pac 12 and Big 12 that are going to affect the teams in the hunt for the playoff. Sit back and enjoy.
November 8th, 2015 at 3:25 PM ^
According to Nate Silver, we have a 13% probability of conference titlle and 8% probability of making the playoff. If you do the math on that our chances of getting in our better than not if we win the conference title, we would need a little help but not a ton.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ascending-tide-updated-college-foot…
November 8th, 2015 at 3:26 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:27 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
Things we control: beating the rest of our schedule, getting into a New Years Six game.
Things we don't: hoping OSU beats Staee, Big 12 chaos, Clemson losing, ND losing to Stanford, Stanford losing PAC 12 CG.
We can get an at large New Years Six by winning out. Obviously OSU is the biggest mountain.
November 8th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 3:37 PM ^
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November 8th, 2015 at 3:39 PM ^
I really don't care about what is out of our control. The 4-team playoff is flawed for the obvious reasons. If we win out, we are big-10 champs and win a rose bowl. If we happen to get into the playoffs great, but there will be crying by someone.
It rarely can get better than winning the B1G championship and a Rose Bowl. This is a Harbaugh team. He will make the best of what we have, which is good and no question is going to get better. I am so happy with Hackett and Harbaugh. We are a force again. Love the effort, the steel spine and the team.
November 8th, 2015 at 3:41 PM ^
Your logic is flawless.
November 8th, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
I've never been a "Big Ten fan." If Michigan isn't a major reason why the conference is good or highly regarded, I couldn't care less about it.
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November 8th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^
This is not a playoff cailber team. Not even close. Watching Clemson/FSU and Alabama/LSU yesterday, it should have been clear to anyone that those teams (not to mention others) are at a whole different level than we are in terms of speed, athleticism, depth, offensive firepower and just plain talent. Everyone has seen the type of team that finishes the season in the top 5, and we don't look like that.
The cold hard fact is that we will almost certanly lose to OSU, and will likely lose one of our two remaining road games. 8-4 is our most likely finish, with a shot at 9-3, but no better.
November 8th, 2015 at 4:00 PM ^
November 8th, 2015 at 4:18 PM ^
Gardner is gone.. And he made some plays, but I think most would agree Rudock is a better QB.
Lost some guys on the D-Line but I don't think it's much of a downgrade.
While I don't think it's a sure thing to beat OSU I don't think it's certain we will lose to OSU.
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