Upsets Move Michigan to #11? Predictions...
Michigan will get the job done at Minnesota easily! Other games to keep an eye on before CFP selection...
It's a decent possibility up to four teams immediately above us get upset this weekend (FPI % and lines):
#12 Oklahoma St @ Texas Tech - only 60% chance to win, 2.5pt line
Georgia @ #11 Florida - only 54.5% chance to win, 2.5pt line
#9 ND @ #21 Temple - 80.5% chance to win, 10.5pt line
#8 Stanford @ Washington St. - 82.5% chance to win, 10pt line
I think all of these have a good shot, since in three of the games the ranked team is on the road. Least likely would be Temple. Watch out Stanford!
October 30th, 2015 at 9:28 AM ^
Let's just win.
October 30th, 2015 at 12:29 PM ^
As fans, we cannot look past Minnesota...our over-confidence will rub off on the team.
As fans, we can afford to look past Minnesota...our over-confidence will not rub off on the team.
October 30th, 2015 at 12:52 PM ^
Well said.
Well said.
October 30th, 2015 at 1:06 PM ^
If we just keep winning the ranking will take care of itself.
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October 30th, 2015 at 2:02 PM ^
As fans, we can look wherever we want because it doesn't matter. It's the coaches and players that have to Be Here Now.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:29 AM ^
Big owls fan this week. Tech could expose OSU, but Georgia ain't beating UF
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October 30th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^
Maybe not, but FL is without their starting QB
October 30th, 2015 at 9:35 AM ^
Florida hung with LSU in Death Valley with their backup QB. I think they'll be fine.
October 30th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
I think Florida will be fine against Georgia too, but two of Florida's TD's against LSU essentially came via their special teams. One was a punt returned for a TD and the other was a 4 play 13 yd drive after LSU fumbled a punt and Florida recovered.
October 30th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^
Other than having two competent QB's, Florida is almost a mirror image of Michigan. They have a lot of talent that previously underachieved due to poor coaching and have made it "back" due to a great defense. I don't look for them to lose in "The World's Largest Cocktail Party."
October 30th, 2015 at 10:00 AM ^
Is it better to be without your starter and go to the back-up, who's the clear back-up, or to not know who your starter should be at all? Georgia will start someone named Faton Bauta at QB Saturday.
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/report-georgia-names-star…
Bauta' put a hurtin' on them Gators?
October 30th, 2015 at 11:47 AM ^
... UGA will not beat Florida. They just assigned our former third string QB as the starter, and we start more freshmen on defense than almost any team in the nation (as well as how many freshman get playing time). It will be brutal for UGA.
The most likely loss I see is Oklahoma at Tech. Maybe the Red Raiders will play spoiler like they did to Texas a few years back.
October 30th, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^
And Georgia is down to a third stringer. So....advantage Florida.
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October 30th, 2015 at 1:45 PM ^
yeah, but 3 is greater than 2. So, who knows.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:30 AM ^
you have to think that at some point Temple is going to go from a "cute story" to a real thing. If they beat ND then it really possible they could jump us, isn't it? They would be undefeated with a couple of relatively impressive wins and the hype that surrounds beating ND. At some point you have to think that undefeated teams are going to jump us right? I think the better scenario would be another Stanford loss and then Stanford beating ND.
October 30th, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
They will jump UM. They should, they would be undefeated and have a bigger win. UM is getting more credit than it deserves. It's not like they were good last year and then lost 2 games. UM has sucked, and I mean really sucked, further they have not beat anyone, not a single team worth a shit. Makes no sense. The AP and coaches give UM a big " Harbaugh" credit, but the CFP committee will not fall for that bullshit, UM will have to earn it.
October 30th, 2015 at 3:11 PM ^
Okey dokey, whatever you say
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October 30th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^
Clever username there. Are you predicting the future when Harbaugh is up 48-0 on Ohio St and decides to go for 2? Or is Urban gonna "go for 2" retirements?
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October 30th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^
are all in the same conference. Only one of those teams can be undefeated after the conference championship game.
October 30th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
to let one of that conference's teams in the playoff. An undeafeated team from that league has no business in the playoff under any circimstance, even if the top three teams have two losses.
October 30th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^
although if you're Memphis you are rooting hard for Ole Miss to win the SEC, which if Ole Miss wins out they are in the SEC title game.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:30 AM ^
While I hope they lose, I don't see ND or Stanford falling this weekend. All I know is that Michigan needs to significalntly climb the polls in the next 4 weeks. If we beat OSU, I don't know how far they will fall, and M needs to be within one spot of them in the rankings at that point.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:31 AM ^
All I'm concerned with at this point is Michigan winning out, and letting the rest of the chips fall as they will.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:25 AM ^
letting the rest of the chips fall INTO MY MOUTH
hopefully they're salt & vinegar style (who am I kidding, I'll eat'm no matter what)
October 30th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^
"Hey, see if they have any chicken chips. If they don't, just get me Dressed All Over and Zesty Mordant." -Ricky
October 30th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^
Rrankings don't matter. just win. At this point were playing for a big ten championship. The only upset we are hopping for is one that results in a "Sparty No!" moment
October 30th, 2015 at 9:34 AM ^
I missed it. Who goes to the B1G title game if Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State all have one conference loss?
October 30th, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^
I think it will be OSU, we would not get it do to worse overall record. and then OSU would have the head to head victory over MSU
October 30th, 2015 at 9:39 AM ^
I don't think non-conf record comes into play except in perception for the overall ranking
October 30th, 2015 at 10:11 AM ^
It goes to CFP ranking. The first 5 tiebreakers for a 3 way tie can't determine who goes if MSU loses to OSU and we beat OSU. So yes, this does matter a little bit. Still just have to keep winning for that to come into play though.
October 30th, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^
not that unlikely that we would be ranked the highest out of the three if this scenario happens. If we continue to win, my guess is that we will be ranked no less than 8th by the time Michigan State and Ohio State play with State being no higher than 4. If OSU beats State comfortably my guess is we would jump State, and would probably jump OSU if we beat them, though if it is close that is not certain. The key is, if we are ranked higher than State but only by one spot, they would still go because of their head to head "victory" against us. The scenario would have to be that OSU smacks State hard and we beat OSU somewhat convincingly. If those two things took place I think we would go to Indi. And yes, I apparently have thought about it quite a bit.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^
I think first tie breaker is head to head record. Assuming OSU beats State and we beat OSU, then it ultimately comes down to highest playoff ranking.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^
October 30th, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^
However, this was recently changed by the B1G at Hackett's request as JH plays a mean game of
October 30th, 2015 at 11:14 AM ^
What happens if OSU beats MSU and we beat OSU and the rankings end up something like
#6 OSU
#7 Michigan
#8 MSU
October 30th, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^
at that point the computers explode and they cancel the game.
(We would go, as the question would come down only to UM and OSU at that point - the two highest ranked teams).
October 30th, 2015 at 1:42 PM ^
No you would't go anywhere. OSU would represent the East due to a higher CFP ranking. For you to be in the BIG Championship and beyond you need OSU to beat MSU and you need to beat OSU and hope that you are high enough to jump OSU and hope that MSU didn't rise too far after their loss and subsequent wins over the rest of their schedule. The problem for you is that MSU and OSU are both highly ranked, neither will fall too far if one beats the other.
October 30th, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^
is also not correct. Look at number 5 in the tie breaker. In the event of three way tie, the highest ranked playoff team goes unless the second highest ranked playoff team beat the highest ranked playoff team and is ranked within 1 spot of them. So, yes, believe it or not, in the scenario above Michigan would go the BIG championship game. It would be mind-bogling and perhaps completely unjust, but in a scenario where the ranking fell in the manner set forth above Michigan would go.
October 30th, 2015 at 2:02 PM ^
Touche... Good luck. Since us ND fans are now Michigan fans. *gag*
October 30th, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^
we will need it. It would make things a lot easier if Nebraska could, ya know, not suck and maybe surprise State in a couple of weeks but I am not holding my breath.
BTW, I was thinking about ND the other day after considering our loss to State for a while. I bet our loss felt a lot like ND's loss to SC in 2005. Identical records going in, big rival, home game, new coach, similar ranking, hype maching going, absolutely catastrophic last second result. Granted, the ending was a lot different but my guess is the feeling was very similar.
October 30th, 2015 at 2:09 PM ^
In response to BtB:
What happens if OSU beats MSU and we beat OSU and the rankings end up something like
#6 OSU
#7 Michigan
#8 MSU
The 3-way tie-breaker condition #5 refers to the top two teams. MSU, having the lowest ranking of the 3, would drop out.
M would move on because of the head-to-head win over OSU, because as the 3-way tie-breaker rule states in the opening paragraph:
"If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative."
The hazard of this tie-breaker for UM, of course, is that when referring back again to condition #5 ... if UM is ranked 2 or more places below OSU, then OSU gets the nod, and Jimmy Harbaugh will quote Bo when he calls it "the lowest day of my athletic career," and we will all eat our cotton-pickin' maize'n'blue hearts out.
October 30th, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^
it goes all the way down to 7 or 8. That'd be fun.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
I just love how they are all: '7. Screw it. Pick a number.'
October 30th, 2015 at 9:39 AM ^
The first tie breaker is overall record, so either OSU or MSU, depending on the CFP poll.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^
Isn't it overall conference record?
October 30th, 2015 at 10:14 AM ^
They compare the 3 records against each other, which is interpreted as, did one team beat both of the other teams and lose to 2 cupcakes. Since all 3 would have a win and loss against each other it goes to the next tiebreaker.
October 30th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^
Unfortunately, I believe you are incorrect. In that scenario, Michigan would have a 10-2 record, while OSU and MSU would have 11-1 records, which eliminates Michigan. Then OSU would hold the head to head victory, propelling them to the title game.
October 30th, 2015 at 2:30 PM ^
You are misinterpreting it. You don't compare overall record including non-conference. You compare record of head-to-head matchups against the teams that are tied (i.e., M record vs OSU and MSU, MSU record vs M and OSU, OSU record vs M and MSU).
But I do love your avatar
October 30th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^
forcing the reader to do some contextual interpretation.
- Does overall refer to conference plus out-of-conference games? Without context, I'd guess yes, but it seems strange to grant a team playing OOC cupcakes priority over others that played ranked team(s) should the cupcake scheduler have been swept by the other tied teams. Or,
- Is "Tie-Breaking Process" a misnomer that should be replaced with "Procedure to Determine Division Champion" and the beginning of Step 1 rewritten as "The B1G eight-game conference records of all elgible (remaining) teams are compared." (The first pass starts with all seven East teams, provided none are on probation.)
I think the latter is the far more likely intent of the B1G.
October 30th, 2015 at 9:39 AM ^
Whoever is ranked higher I believe.
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