Forde Yard Dash predicts UM to beat NW, MSU, OSU, contend for playoff.
In his weekly article for Yahoo!, Pat Forde predicts the following things will happen:
• M will end Northwestern's undefeated season this weekend
• M will end MSU's undefeated season on 10/17
• M will end OSU's undefeated season on 11/28
• M will have a chance at making the playoffs
He goes on to say:
The Wolverines have allowed 14 points in the last four games, and if they win what could be a three-and-out-a-thon against Northwestern on Saturday they will likely come into Oct. 17 against Michigan State playing better than the Spartans. Win that game, and Michigan State will taste a defeat most bitter at a time when it assumed it had the upper hand in the state. Keeping winning from there, and Harbaugh-Urban I could be the stuff of legend. The Michigan man-crush hero worship already in full effect over Harbaugh would reach screaming-teenage-girls-over-One-Direction levels. It would rival the Saban idolatry in Alabama, perhaps even exceed it.
I mean, sure, NSFMF, but it's a fun read.
Link to the full article: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/forde-yard-dash--predicting-when-each-undefeated-team-will-lose-032638433-ncaaf.html
October 6th, 2015 at 9:35 AM ^
If we win all of those games then we won't "contend" for the playoff. We will be in it, period, assuming we win the B1G championship game.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:43 AM ^
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October 6th, 2015 at 11:06 AM ^
I just listened to the nortwestern Podcast, and they claimed that Forde has Northwestern in the CFP
October 6th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^
https://sports.yahoo.com/news/forde-s-fab-four--where-merit-means-more-…
He has them in if the season ended today.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:45 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^
Just for kicks I looked at all the undefeated teams left and there are way fewer than usual this early in the year. And so many have to still play each other. I think this is the year with a ton of controversy as there will be a lot of 1 loss teams out there at the end and potentially only 1-2 undefeated. Or maybe 1 or none.
I am talking in a general sense not Michigan related. This offense still has to morph into something competent thru the air vs good defenses. It failed v Utah.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^
It's so early in the season. Conference play has barely started. There are still lots of matchup's between undefeated and one loss teams left on the schedule.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:20 AM ^
"This weeks matchup will tell a lot about where we are"
Seems like we have said that 5 times already this season, but this week really is a HUGE game for this team. Too bad College gameday can't make it!
October 6th, 2015 at 10:55 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^
played as many highly ranked opponents as Michigan, that's the difference, strength of schedule when you played those teams and where they were when you played them
Not even gonna go there. That is so far removed from the state of this team and way we all ought to approach things. I mean the NFL way is the best way, just win, baby. Everything else takes care of itself.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 10:55 AM ^
If the committee has any collective brains, they will note the lesson college football taught again last year. Remember that vaunted SEC West that was an NFL division in disguise? And that Ohio State team that didn't belong in the Playoff?
Last season demonstrated once again that the conventional wisdom is often wrong. Last year it was totally wrong.
Taking only one team from four of the five conferences ensures that all but one team won its way into the playoff. As long as there are only four playoff spots for five conferences, there will likely be controversy around which conference got left out every year. We had that last year with the Big 12 (TCU/Baylor).
There won't be more controversy than that, however.
October 6th, 2015 at 3:12 PM ^
Clemson has the best (41.9%) chance to win out.
2. Ohio State 31.4%
3. Toledo 24.9%
4. Utah 15.3%
5. Northwestern 14.4%
6. Houston 12.3%
7. Baylor 11.9%
8. MSU 11.4%
9. Texas A&M 7.2%
10. Iowa 6.3%
In order, TCU, LSU, Oklahoma State, FSU, Sooners, and Temple are all in the 5.2% to 3% range. Navy, Memphis, and Florida are in the 1.9% to 0.2% range. Listed last of the 20 unbeatens (15 from Power 5 conferences) is Cal with a 0.0% chance to remain undefeated.
(Link)
October 6th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 3:04 PM ^
Forde says nothing about PSU or Minny, who at this point according to S&P+ are M's most difficult remaining games, which of course are on the road...and could be the trappiest of all trap games. Yea, I know - I can't believe it either.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^
The hype is cool and all but we dont look that great. Granted, we look much better than last year but our offense has looked pretty bad (except for a single half against BYU). In maddend ratings we are like: Offense - 73, Defense - 94, Special Teams - 87. Not sure thats playoff material
October 6th, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^
Meant Madden..and not, its just a numerical approach to rating a teams three major units popularized by the video game.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^
I see what your saying, but I'm giving a bump for the Defense up to a 97 and Special Teams to a 91.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:41 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
our offense is pretty meh, but if you look at the S&P ratings, FWIW, i could see us plausibly winning the big ten. for our remaining opponents:
NW: #100 offense; #6 defense
MSU: #33 offense; #40 defense
Minnesota: #81 offense; #7 defense
Rutgers: #91 offense; #111 defense
Indiana: #17 offense; #96 defense
Penn State: #57 offense; #16 defense
OSU: #52 offense; #20 defense
good guys: #53 offense; #3 defense
Obviously, we'll learn a lot this Saturday, since Northwestern is clearly by far the best defense we will have faced so far this season.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^
given what actual straight forward numbers show for the rankings of MSU and Penn State.
And Penn State hasn't played any one. I don't think you run into a formidable offense until you run into Ohio State. And by that I mean one with a dynamic back and speed that puts your deffense at risk on any play of giving uo a score. No one left on the schedule offers that threat besides the Buckeyes. Some teams have part of that equation, but not all the elements that OSU does.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^
Putting these next two weekends aside... when I look at those stats and think about how Indiana played Ohio State..that game really scares me. We can't get in a scoring match. We will lose. Maryland was ranked in the 100's I believe in defense, and we didn't really blow them back to say the least.
Indiana has a comparable defense, but their offense might actually score more points then we want and that game might turn into a barn burner.
Even though stats make it look good for us, I believe we are in for a lot of good games this year.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:03 AM ^
but they also gave Southern Illinois, Western Kentucky, and Wake Forest competitive games.
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| Sat, Oct 3 | vs | |||||
Southern Illinois
FIU
Western Kentucky
Wake Forest
Ohio State
October 6th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^
UM gets them late in the year. For the OSU game, IU was 4-0 with a lot of confidence and hope and hosting the #1 team in the country. By the time UM rolls into Bloomington, IU might be a .500 team who's spirits have taken a 180 since the OSU game.
October 6th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
When I look at the rest of our schedule, one of the biggest trap games I see is Indiana. It's away, and I feel like we're still a *super* shaky road team in many ways. However, you want to hope that since we will have played almost our entire season by then, we'll be prepared.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:06 AM ^
man, if those are madden ratings you're underselling this group by good margin. Also, if we're making NFL comparisons I remember the 2000 Baltimore Ravens doing it with all defense and Trent Dilfer as their QB. How'd that work out?
October 6th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^
Look I think we can be a 9 / 10 win team with this defense and a bit of improvement but we are not a contender. This defense is not going to show up lights out every week. Some weeks they wont be quite as good and im not sure the offense has enough to carry the team for a game.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:08 AM ^
in two old sayings: Defense wins championships and defense travels. Granted it'd be great to have a devastating offense but UM has been scoring around 30 pts/game. In some of these games, it probably could have been more but Harbaugh and company kept the offense vanilla and/or downshifted once they had a good size lead.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:14 AM ^
I agree with your first sentence by the way but UM has also only played one top 40 defense in Utah. And until the closing minutes it was held to 10 pts. So that's the issue here. Cant expect the defense to give up 105 yds every game or hold everyone to 7 to 10 pts. Even in MSU's 2013 season when they had a great defense they gave up 20+ pts to the OSUs stanford and the offense had to blossom with Cook late in the year.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:24 AM ^
if Harbaugh and staff had kept the foot on the gas for 60 minutes against UNLV, OSU and BYU and those final scores were more like 48-7, 45-7 and 45-0 I'm guessing people would have a different view of the offense. I'm definitely not saying this offense is a well oiled machine but they've been able to grind out yards and dial up the right play call to big up chunks of yardage more in the last couple of games.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 10:56 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^
I just think people are selling the offense and particular the offenisve staff short. Heading into the BYU game there was a lot of worry about how UM's offense was going to do after two games where they pretty much pounded the ball down OSU and UNLV's throat. After the game BYU was saying UM ran stuff they weren't ready for and hadn't game planned for.
Yeah, there's some warts with this offense but Harbaugh and company aren't going to shift into 4th and 5th gear with the playcalling against an opponent where 3rd gear gets them a comfortable win. I'm not going to say UM has 30 pts after halftime against NU, but I think we're going to see the playbook open up quite a bit this game.
October 6th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^
Yeah, I don't think the defense will be able to truly dominate this year against better competition, but I also think that Utah game was such a weird one, with some many outlier elements, that I'm not sure how representative it is of the quality of the offense today. I see it being a unit that can grunt its way to around 17-20 points against your good defenses (NW, OSU, PSU, maybe Minny), and outside of OSU I don't see any of those offenses being able to do much against UM's defense. I do think the return game is stronger than in years past, so a Peppers punt return could swing a game.
October 6th, 2015 at 10:30 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^
him get his act together and say something totally awesome.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:39 AM ^
October 6th, 2015 at 10:39 AM ^
after the next two wins over our upcoming opponents. Then that belief crystalizes into skyrocketing hopes. Right now, it's just daydream believing.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^
has to write about this week. There's nothing else to write about. If they don't ponder and prognosticate how Harbaugh's Michigan team will do, someone else will. They can't just leave it at "it's too early to predict, check back with me later ... now go away and take your clicks with you." Forde actually took kind of a clever approach with the Harbaugh Armageddon scenario. I'll give him that.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:39 AM ^
But I'm not getting my hopes up.
I want this to happen so bad.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^
Like everyone else, I'm more than excited about watching competant football again.
I would feel a lot better about this if we beat Utah, if our QB wasn't a turnover machine, and if we could connect on a pass of more than 20 yards.
October 6th, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^
We are good, no doubt. But I think they can slow down the hype train. Sure is nice to be in the conversation again though.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^
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October 6th, 2015 at 12:08 PM ^
This BHGP piece on the Forde Yard dash is still amongst my favorite ever
http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2008/9/17/615876/bhgp-presents-fordy-yard-d
October 6th, 2015 at 10:16 PM ^
I LOL'd
October 6th, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
that expectations have gone up and that is fine, but I feel like people are really, really getting carried away with some things right now. They are going up to the extent that this team could "fail" by going 9-3 and winning a respectable bowl game. That is not what perception should be right now. Michigan State and Ohio State have not shown their hand yet, they in fact have not even flipped a card over on the table at this point. For a member of the national media to pick Michigan to beat both of them this year, IDK, I feel like this is too much too quick in a lot of ways. Expectations are to the point that the team could have a better year than anybody foresaw coming and still leave a fan base angry because they didn't live up to "expectations" that did not even exist at the start of the season. My barometer has moved on this team but not nearly to the degree that this article indicates.
October 6th, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^
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