Tell Right Now - How Many Victories This Year

Submitted by xtramelanin on

Mates,

Reset the predictions right now.  Unfortunately 15 victories is out of reach.  We are 2-1 and have looked pretty good, but not great, in most areas of play.  Still legitimate reason to have optimism and ohio and msu aren't going to want to play us since we will be very dangerous no matter what our record is.

So, call it out right now:  How many wins in the regular season?   I say we are 8-4, shading to 9-3.  We are going to happily surprise a couple of teams, derp a game, but overall, good performance strongly trending in the right direction.

Your win prediction is.....

MGoBoard
Football

Blue Know It

September 20th, 2015 at 9:30 PM ^

Honest question (please don't take offense). I see this a lot and I always wonder.. Without even knowing who we would face in our bowl game, how can someone predict a W/L either way?

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Zok

September 20th, 2015 at 10:26 PM ^

Win 8 games then lose bowl game. I say this bc 8 wins and the Michigan game prob gets us in NYD type bowl (citrus, outback) vs SEC which is an L.

If we win 7 then we go to easier bowl and likely win (pinstripe or holiday type bowl)

That would be my logic right now without knowing the opponent in bowl game. If we won 9-10 I would assume an L bc we would be in citrus or BCS type bowl. IMO UM not ready for those yet. 

 

Peronally, I think BYU is huge game. We win and 8 wins is possible. 9 if QB play can go from liability to good. Can only beat MSU or OSU if QB play is "great" on those games. Right now I would say that is NOT likely given their talent and what we have seen thus far but you never know. Harbaugh should get improvement each week

UM loses to BYU then I'm firmly in the win 7 camp.Lose to BYU tells me MSU and OSU is 1% chance. Other toss up games become worrisome (@minny,@NU)...maybe @PSU. If we can beat BYU now then I think UM wins 2 of those 3 above for sure IMO.

I am assuming there is a headscratcher/frustrating B1G loss somwhere.

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Zok

September 21st, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^

I'm just saying the conf is weak and our track record vs the #3/4 SEC team is not great. They tend to be a lot more like the S Carolina bowl game then UF-Tebow game.

neg away, but the top 2 from the SEC are going to playoff/BCS games. This means a hypothetical 8-9win UM team could play the loser of the SEC championship game or SEC West runner up.

Do you think UM (even an 8-9 win UM, so losses to MSU,OSU,Utah, maybe Minny) could beat:

Bama, Ole MIss, LSU, or UGA in a bowl game? An 8-9win UM team would play one of them in Florida. I just don't see that as a W at the moment. Not with this QB play. I'm not saying it would be UT vs UM 2002 citrus bowl all over again but it could.

 

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markjko.rn

September 20th, 2015 at 9:43 PM ^

By looking at the track records of the coaches involved in their bowl games. Have they or have they not been able to prepare the team for a 'w' after a long layoff? If the current coaching staff has a positive track record, I would lean towards a win. And...#Harbaugh

Joined: 08/25/2009

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MadMatt

September 21st, 2015 at 10:40 AM ^

I agree with your analysis on the difficulty of predicting a hypothetical bowl game.  At this point I am willing to venture a guess on the following factors: (1) the coaching staff has demonstrated they can correct mistakes and make adjustments.  This causes me to conclude the team will improve, and given the talent on the roster, I think they will improve a lot over the course of the season.  (2) Looking at the regular season schedule, I still see them as an 8-4 team.  If anything, I think it is marginally more difficult than I first thought because BYU and Northwestern both look better than expected, even though Penn State looks worse.  Therefore, I think Michigan will get invited to a lower tier bowl against an opponent of comparable ability.  (This is in contrast to a team with a powder puff schedule who may look better than they are and get invited to a higher profile bowl against an opponent they will have difficulty handling.)  (3) Combining 1 & 2 above, I think Michigan will be better prepared than their bowl opponent.

Therefore, I'm thinking 8-4 in the regular season (same as I expected before the first game), and 9-4 overall.  We should be grateful and happy if we get this.

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DHughes5218

September 21st, 2015 at 3:01 AM ^

Do you think there's anyone in the NCAA office with enough hair on their ass to tell Harbaugh he doesn't get credit for the win when it's discovered that Utah used NFL players? I don't think so. They might even declare Michigan 16-0 just because of Harbaugh. I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that they are looking into renaming the Heisman the Harbaugh and naming the golden vagina the Harbaugh Team trophy. It's all unconfirmed speculation but where there's smoke...

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CoachBP6

September 20th, 2015 at 9:17 PM ^

7-5. Not good enough on offense to score points against good defensive teams. We shall see though, Harbaugh coached teams typically get better and better week to week.

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Bronco Joe

September 21st, 2015 at 5:16 AM ^

Agree - After BYU, a lot better idea of how we are going to do leading up to the MSU game and some indication of how we'll do against NU. After MSU game, win or loss, how will they do against Minn away?

If have to pick now, I can't see any of the teams in Nov aside from OSU as a potential loss, so 7 regular season wins seems like a floor, which says to me that 8 wins on the season is pretty certain. 

 

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MGoRedemption

September 20th, 2015 at 9:23 PM ^

unfortunately i gotta say 7-5. On the road at Minnesota and Penn State and this week vs BYU could easily be losses.

But 8-5 with a bowl win will be satisfying, i think,  for a lot of Michigan fans for what Harbaugh inherited. 

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