How the 2010 NFL Draft will transform the Big Ten

Submitted by umhero on January 5th, 2010 at 12:24 AM

As I suggested in an earlier diary, "The NFL Uncapped Year and Donovan Warren", the NFL draft in 2010 may set a record for the most juniors to leave early in a season. I recently heard on the NFL network that more than 75 underclassmen may put their names in for draft consideration.

The reasons this coming draft is inspiring so many to try to grab the brass ring are all the result of the expiring labor agreement between NFL Players and owners. First, it is likely that the next agreement will include a slotted rookie draft with lower starting salaries, like the NBA currently has, so some players may be entering during an uncapped year to maximize the pay in their first contract. Second, the next contract may extend the period before players can become unrestricted free agents, so they would like to get in now to start their counter toward that time. Finally, the number one reason college underclassmen are being advised to enter now is the potential lockout in 2011, players getting in now can ensure themselves a payday rather than risking a year without a season.

The prospects for a lockout are very real. The NFL Players Association is desperately trying to get the owners to negotiate a new contract but the owners are unwilling to meet. The owners are looking forward to the uncapped year, not so that they can spend like crazy, instead it provides them an opportunity to dump bad contracts without penalty while locking up their young stars. While many current NFL players have been looking forward to the uncapped year as a windfall, the owners included language in the contract that adds an extra transition tag to protect a teams best players and extends the unrestricted free agency period from four years to six for this coming season; locking up many of the league's best young stars when they expected their freedom.

Since we all know that most of college football's top players are merely using the NCAA as a launching pad to the NFL, they don't need too much encouragement to take a shot at the league. Here's a list of players that have already declared or indicated that they are strongly considering it (I included the Scout star ranking when they left high school or junior college):

Pos	Player	Team	Status	Rank
QB	Sam Bradford	Oklahoma	Declared	4 star
QB	Jevan Snead	Mississippi		4 star
QB	Ryan Mallett	Arkansas		5 star
QB	Jimmy Clausen	Notre Dame	Declared	5 star
QB	Case Keenum	Houston		2 star
RB	Jonathan Dwyer	Georgia Tech		4 star
RB	Evan Royster	Penn State	Declared	3 star
RB	John Clay	Wisconsin		4 star
RB	Brandon Saine	Ohio State		4 star
RB	Toby Gerhart	Stanford		3 star
RB	Jahvid Best	California	Declared	4 star
RB	DeMarco Murray	Oklahoma		5 star
RB	Harvey Unga	BYU		2 star
RB	Joe McKnight	Southern California		5 star
RB	Darren Evans	Virginia Tech		4 star
RB	Delone Carter	Syracuse		4 star
RB	Ryan Mathews	Fresno State	Declared	2 star
WR	Dez Bryant	Oklahoma State	Declared	4 star
WR	Arrelious Benn	Illinois	Declared	5 star
WR	Damian Williams	Southern California		4 star
WR	Dezmon Briscoe	Kansas	Declared	2 star
WR	Demaryius Thomas	Georgia Tech		3 star
WR	Golden Tate	Notre Dame	Declared	4 star
WR	Vincent Brown	San Diego State		3 star
WR	Chris Bell	Norfolk State		5 star
WR	Dane Sanzenbacher	Ohio State		4 star
WR	Mike Williams	Syracuse	Declared	2 star
TE	Rob Gronkowski	Arizona		4 star
TE	Aaron Hernandez	Florida		5 star
TE	Weslye Saunders	South Carolina		4 star
TE	Jermaine Gresham	Oklahoma	Declared	4 star
OT	Brian Bulaga	Iowa		4 star
OT	Anthony Davis	Rutgers	Declared	5 star
OT	Gabe Carimi	Wisconsin		3 star
OT	Jason Pinkston	Pittsburgh		4 star
OT	Bruce Campbell	Maryland	Declared	4 star
OL	Bryant Browning	Ohio State		3 star
OL	Justin Boren	Ohio State		5 star
OL	Maurkice Pouncey	Florida		4 star
OL	Mike Pouncey	Florida		4 star
DE	Carlos Dunlap	Florida		5 star
DE	Cliff Matthews	South Carolina		5 star
DE	Cameron Heyward	Ohio State		4 star
DE	Derrick Morgan	Georgia Tech		4 star
DE	Everson Griffen	Southern California	Declared	5 star
DE	Greg Romeus	Pittsburgh		2 star
DE	Jason Pierre-Paul	South Florida		5 star JC
DE	Thaddeus Gibson	Ohio State		4 star
DE	Adrian Clayborn	Iowa		4 star
DE	Justin Trattou	Florida		5 star
DE	Ryan Kerrigan	Purdue		3 star
DE	Kevin Basped	Nevada		2 star
DE	Dontay Moch	Nevada		2 star
DT	Gerald McCoy	Oklahoma	Declared	5 star
DT	Brian Price	UCLA	Declared	5 star
DT	Marvin Austin	North Carolina		5 star
DT	Allen Bailey	Miami (Fla.)		5 star
DT	Stephen Paea	Oregon State		3 star JC
DT	Abe Koroma	Western Illinois	Declared	3 star
ILB	Rolando McClain	Alabama		4 star
ILB	Scott Lutrus	UConn		2 star
ILB	Quan Sturdivant	North Carolina		4 star
ILB	Travis Lewis	Oklahoma		4 star
OLB	Greg Jones	Michigan State		3 star
OLB	Navorro Bowman	Penn State	Declared	4 star
OLB	Rennie Curran	Georgia		4 star
OLB	Bruce Carter	North Carolina		3 star
OLB	Von Miller	Texas A&M		4 star
CB	Joe Haden	Florida	Declared	4 star
CB	DeAndre Morgan	North Carolina State		3 star
CB	Ras-I Dowling	Virginia		2 star
CB	Donovan Warren	Michigan	Declared	5 star
CB	Kareem Jackson	Alabama		3 star
CB	Dominique Franks	Oklahoma		4 star
CB	Amari Spievey	Iowa		2 star
CB	Johnny Patrick	Louisville		3 star
CB	Chimdi Chekwa	Ohio State		2 star
CB	Jimmy Smith	Colorado		3 star
CB	Kendric Burney	North Carolina		3 star
CB	Devon Torrence	Ohio State		4 star
S	Eric Berry	Tennessee	Declared	5 star
S	Morgan Burnett	Georgia Tech		4 star
S	Reshad Jones	Georgia		4 star
S	Major Wright	Florida		5 star
S	Chad Jones	LSU		5 star
S	Deunta Williams	North Carolina		4 star
S	Jermale Hines	Ohio State		4 star

Source: www.Scout.com, www.NFLdraftbible.com

As you can see, of the 87 players on the list 21 have already made their intentions known. The 2009 draft had 46 early entrants, but only nine had declared before January 1.

So how will this impact the Big Ten?

There are 20 Big Ten players on the list and four of those have already declared. Nine of the players play for Ohio State. It is unlikely that all of the players above will enter the draft, however it is likely many will. If you combine this group with graduating seniors the power in the Big Ten could change dramatically. Here is a list of contributors that will be gone from each team in the Big Ten:

	Illinois	Indiana	Iowa	Michigan
QB	Juice Williams
RB	Daniel Dufrene*	Demetrius McCray*		Brandon Minor
RB		Bryan Payton*		Carlos Brown*
WR	Arrelious Benn**		Trey Stross	Greg Matthews
WR	Chris Duvalt			LaTerryal Savoy*
WR	Jarred Fayson
TE	Michael Hoomanawanui	Troy Wagner	Tony Moeaki
TE		Brian Zematis
OT		Rodger Saffold	Kyle Calloway	Mark Ortmann
OT			Bryan Bulaga**
OT
OT
OG	Jon Asamoah	Pete Saxon	Andy Kuempel*	David Moosman
OG		Mike Reiter*	Dace Richardson
OG			Dan Doering*
C	Eric Block		Rafael Eubanks
C

DE	Antonio James	Greg Middleton	Chad Geary*	Brandon Graham
DE	Doug Pilcher	Jammie Kirlew	Adrian Clayborn**	Adam Patterson*
DE
DT	Rahkeem Smith*		Travis Meade*
DT	Sirod Williams
DT
LB		Will Patterson	A.J. Edds
LB		Justin Carrington*	Pat Angerer
LB		Matt Mayberry
LB
CB	Dere Hicks		Amari Spievey**	Donovan Warren**
CB
CB
S	Donsay Hardeman	Austin Thomas		Steve Brown
S		Collin Taylor*
S		Nick Polk
S		Matt Kurz*

K				Jason Olesnavage
P	Anthony Santella			Zolton Mesko
Total	15	16	14	12

	Michigan State	Minnesota	Northwestern	Ohio State
QB			Mike Kafka
RB				Brandon Saine**
RB
WR	Blair White	Ben Kuznia*	Andrew Brewer	Ray Small*
WR			Kevin Frymire	Dane Sanzenbacher**
WR
TE		Nick Tow-Arnett		Jake Ballard
TE
OT	Rocco Cironi	Matt Stommes*	Kurt Mattes*	Jim Cordle
OT	Mike Schmeding*
OT
OT
OG	Brendon Moss		Desmond Taylor*	Bryant Browning**
OG				Justin Boren**
OG
C	Joel Nitchman			Andrew Moses*
C	John Stipek*

DE	Trevor Anderson	Cedric McKinley	Corey Wootton	Cameron Heyward**
DE	Colin Neely	Barrett Moen		Thaddeus Gibson**
DE		Derrick Onwuachi*		Lawrence Wilson*
DT	Michael Jordan*	Eric Small	Adam Hahn	Todd Denlinger
DT		Garrett Brown	Marshall Thomas*	Doug Worthington
DT				Rob Rose
LB	Brandon Denson	Simoni Lawrence		Austin Spitler
LB	Greg Jones**	Rex Sharpe*
LB	Adam Decker*	Nate Triplett
LB		Lee Campbell
CB	Jeremy Ware	Traye Simmons	Sherrick McManis	Chimdi Chekwa**
CB	Ross Weaver*	Marcus Sherels		Devon Torrence**
CB				Andre Amos*
S	K. Davis-Clark*		Brad Phillips	Kurt Coleman
S	Ashton Henderson*		Brendan Smith	Anderson Russell
S	Dan Fortener
S

K	Brett Swenson
P		Blake Haudan		Jon Thoma
Total	18	15	11	21

	Penn State	Purdue	Wisconsin
QB	Daryll Clark	Joey Elliott
RB	Evan Royster	Jaycen Taylor*	John Clay**
RB			Garrett Graham
WR	Brett Brackett	Royce Adams*
WR	Graham Zug	Aaron Valentin
WR	Patrick Mauti*
TE	Mickey Shuler		Mickey Turner
TE	Andrew Quarless*
OT	Dennis Landolt	Zach Jones
OT	DeOn'tae Pannell
OT	Ako Poti*
OT	Nerraw McCormack*
OG	Lou Eliades	Zach Reckman
OG
OG
C	Doug Klopacz*	Jared Zwilling
C

DE	Jerome Hayes	Keyon Brown*	O'Brien Schofield
DE	Tom Golarz*
DE
DT	Jared Odrick	Mike Neal	Daniel Moore
DT	Ollie Ogbu		Dan Cascone*
DT			Jeff Stehle
LB	Sean Lee	Jason Werner	Jaevery McFadden
LB	Navorro Bowman
LB	Josh Hull
LB	Bani Gbadyu*
CB	Knowledge Timmons	Brandon King
CB	A.J. Wallace*	David Pender
CB	S. McCullough*
S	Cedric Jeffries*	Torri Williams	Chris Maragos
S		Dwight Mclean
S
S

K	Collin Wagner
P	Jeremy Boone	Chris Summers
Total	27	15	9

* indicates non-starting contributor
** indicates early entrant
Source: www.rivals.com, www.foxsports.com, www.scout.com

Mgoblog readers can extrapolate the data anyway you choose, but a few things to note. Only two teams lose fewer player than the 12 that Michigan loses; Northwestern loses 11 and Wisconsin only loses nine. Penn State loses 27 contributors while Ohio State loses 21 and Michigan State loses 18. These departures don't include any transfers, nor do they include any disciplinary departures (see Spartans).

We all know that good teams reload and often players on the bench outshine the player they replace, but I am happy to see how few holes we will need to fill relative to the rest of the conference.

It will be an interesting off season. The NFL has made it a little more interesting. We will know how many players are truly leaving on January 15, the last day to declare for the draft.

Go Blue!

NFL draft

Early Entrants

Comments

tundcivic

January 5th, 2010 at 12:35 AM ^

Juice Williams, Arrelious Benn, Corey Wootton, Brandon Saine, Cameron Heyward, Daryll Clark, Evan Royster, Andrew Quarless, Sean Lee, Navarro Bowman, John Clay Seeing these key B10 players on the list make me feel so much better about next year

Joined: 05/29/2009

MGoPoints: 39

Beavis

January 5th, 2010 at 3:07 AM ^

Yeah this is great and all - but you still forgot Graham and Warren. We're losing our two best players. The # of players LOST is certainly encouraging, but the talent lost tells a different story. In terms of stars lost, PSU clearly leads, and Illinois might be second, but we might come in at #3.

Joined: 07/28/2009

MGoPoints: 5993

msoccer10

January 5th, 2010 at 11:07 AM ^

unless a bunch of OSU players declare. They have a bunch on defense they don't want to lose.

Joined: 08/29/2008

MGoPoints: 1756

Number 7

January 5th, 2010 at 11:59 AM ^

I agree with the other responder that you're wrong that our 2 losses make us the #3 talent loser in the conference (Warren fell off a lot in second half; Graham should have been co-B10 D-player of year, but along with fellow departers Jones, Bowman, and Angerer.) Still, I tipped you one to undo an undeserved negbang. to me, turnover among stars will matter most for the second tier teams (ie, not OSU, PSU, Iowa, or Wisc -- don't ask where I think UM fits). Losing a Kafka or a Benn, or even an Elliot, is a big setback for a Northwestern, an Illinois, or a Purdue. Off the cuff, then, among the four I singled out (plus MSU and us, for good measure), it is the loss of trench-men and defensive stars that hurt. Among those 6, I'd say Iowa takes the biggest hit, Sparty the second (assuming Jones goes). PSU is next, but may be better able to reload than UM, which is fourth. OSU has presumptive reloading prospects, and Wiscy take a pretty light hit, assuming that there is someone there to replace Clay (as there was after Dayne, and after Calhoun).

Joined: 06/09/2009

MGoPoints: 5256

WildcatBlue

January 5th, 2010 at 12:55 PM ^

a dude named Persa, isn't going to be much of a downgrade if at all. Northwestern will suffer most from losing two good senior safeties.

Joined: 08/09/2008

MGoPoints: 504

jlvanals

January 6th, 2010 at 12:40 PM ^

Totally agree, Mike Kafka isn't exactly what one would call irreplaceable in either his mental or physical skill set.

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 707

VictorsValiant09

January 5th, 2010 at 12:40 AM ^

Thanks for the breakdown.

Joined: 04/05/2009

MGoPoints: 561

Jivas

January 5th, 2010 at 12:51 AM ^

Kudos to you, sir. Fine effort. I do have one piece of constructive feedback, and that would be to go one step further with some qualitative analysis. The issue with quantifying the turnover in this fashion is that it does not distinguish the loss of Brandon Graham from Jason Olesnavage - each simply add 1 to the total loss column. In order to better understand how these losses are likely to affect each team on the field next year, a more nuanced (and subjective) analysis would need to be performed. But again - great job, and thanks for taking the time to compile the data.

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 2396

umhero

January 5th, 2010 at 8:31 AM ^

You are right. I considered excluding kickers and punters all together, but I decided to include everyone and let the readers interpret the data themselves. Obviously the loss of Zoltan may mean more to us than the loss of a mere mortal punter to another team. As I mentioned in another post, it's hard to quantify the value of certain players to their teams. Adam Patterson is listed as a "contributing back up" and that is debatable. It is difficult to identify true losses to a team unless you are a close follower of that team. That's why we can point to Patterson and Savoy and say "no big loss", as other teams can probably say the same thing about a few of their own players.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

StephenRKass

January 5th, 2010 at 1:02 AM ^

Re: reloading, any comments in particular as regards PSU & OSU?

Joined: 07/15/2008

MGoPoints: 22961

umhero

January 5th, 2010 at 8:46 AM ^

With regards to Penn State, they redshirt just about everyone so their depth is exceptional. I suspect they will be slightly impacted by losses since they are losing eight offensive starters and seven on defense but like pre-RR Michigan, the system seems to be in place to reload on the fly. I have to say the same thing about OSU (I'm sure they have quality depth), losing 10 starters on defense and six on offense may take some time to effectively "reload" but I'm sure they have talent hidden on the bench. Clearly PSU and OSU recruit well every year so losing stars won't hurt them as much as other teams in the Big Ten.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

Wolverine 73

January 6th, 2010 at 10:06 AM ^

according to The Plain Dealer on 1/5, Gibson is leaving tOSU, but Heyward and Cheekwa have announced they are returning.

Joined: 08/03/2009

MGoPoints: 27096

DoubleMs

January 5th, 2010 at 2:55 AM ^

Next year is going to be a strange year for college football. I feel like there will be far fewer huge senior years, since a large portion of the big-talent juniors are looking to up and leave. Interesting notion: What if the NFL required a degree in order to play? I think it'd improve the college game.

Joined: 10/13/2008

MGoPoints: 611

BleedingBlue

January 5th, 2010 at 11:06 AM ^

Interesting question: As of 2003/04 only 46% of nfl players had a degree. This is likely to go down with the flood of juniors this year. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4200/is_20040830/ai_n10175672/

Joined: 07/25/2008

MGoPoints: 2165

DoubleMs

January 5th, 2010 at 1:00 PM ^

Right, I meant in the sense of what if they put it in the new contract that every rookie from that point forward had to have a 4-year degree from an accredited university?

Joined: 10/13/2008

MGoPoints: 611

BleedingBlue

January 5th, 2010 at 1:05 PM ^

I understand. I was providing some context there. You would lose half of the players as it stands now. obvs it would go up, but with that high of a percentage there is now way it would ever pass and is probably ridiculously illegal to discriminate in that way (lawyers on here could clarify I'm sure). As a hypothetical, it would with all possible certainty improve the quality of players and play in college.

Joined: 07/25/2008

MGoPoints: 2165

aaamichfan

January 5th, 2010 at 2:37 PM ^

There is nothing illegal about requiring a college degree for employment. I assume a grandfather clause would be used for players presently without one.

Joined: 10/23/2009

MGoPoints: 14362

BleedingBlue

January 5th, 2010 at 4:31 PM ^

true...don't know what I was thinking about there. It definitely would not make sense for the NFL to have that requirement - an athletically based job requiring a degree for employment. I don't think the owners would ever want it and and the NFLPA would never let it happen, regardless.

Joined: 07/25/2008

MGoPoints: 2165

Mgobowl

January 5th, 2010 at 9:15 PM ^

As another poster said, the NFLPA would not go for it. However, with the average playing life of an NFL player at 3.52 years (http://www.seattlepi.com/football/362412_nflhealth09.html) it would be in the best interest of the players to get the degree so they could do something with their lives once they are done. How many stories have there been over the years of players entering bankruptcy because they have blown through all the money they have made during their careers. Throw in there the number of career ending or crippling injuries every year and the NFL becomes a real crap shoot. Maybe an alternative to requiring a degree to enter the NFL would be to require players to complete their degrees within X number of years.

Joined: 05/20/2009

MGoPoints: 1661

EGD

January 6th, 2010 at 12:01 AM ^

As a college FB fan, I too am disappointed every time a talented underclassman leaves early for the pros (except, of course, when the player in question belongs to a UM rival). However, if I put myself in the player's shoes, it's a no-brainer: if I am good enough to go pro, I do it as soon as I can, every time. Between a decent signing bonus and a couple seasons at $1M or close to it, you can be financially set for life by your early to mid twenties. From a purely financial perspective, I'd feel a hell of a lot more secure with $2.5 million in the bank than with a four-year BGS degree. If you have the money, you can always go back to school later--but if you blow out your knee or get a couple concussions, you may not be able to repair the damage to your NFL draft prospects. The fact of the matter is, major college football programs, with the complicity of the NFL, exploit the heck out of their star players. A full-ride scholarship is a pretty good deal for most guys on the roster, but not for the handful that could be raking in hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars per year, but for arbitrary rules like the "3 years from high school" policy. Requiring players to remain in college yet another year, let alone to obtain a college degree as a condition for playing NFL ball, would only deepen the inequity.

Joined: 09/16/2009

MGoPoints: 35199

Mgobowl

January 6th, 2010 at 2:15 AM ^

I see your point. However, where you or I may be financially set with 2.5 million dollars, many professional athletes squander that money. Take a look at this article: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1153364/inde… The number that stood out to me was that 78% of former NFL players are bankrupt or under financial stress. Even if they are able to pay their creditors, they will not have money to live off the interest and without a college degree they are not very employable. I understand the "go now because you may blow out your knee tomorrow" mantra, however the NFL needs to do a better job of educating their players in regards to long term financial health. Players cannot be expected to do it alone when there are agents, friends, companies all clamoring for the players to sign endorsement deals and invest in can't miss businesses. It may not be realistic to force players to complete their degree prior to entering the NFL, but it might be reasonable for there to be a system in place for completing their degrees over a few years. I think teachers in Michigan are required to complete a certain number of credits beyond their bachelor's degree after so many years of teaching (I'm not sure of the details). Obviously this is not completely analogous, but why is it so far fetched to do this in professional sports? I think there is a generalization that many pro athletes are uneducated and this would be one way to change the NFL's image. Chances are this will not happen. More realistically, the NFL should set up a system that requires players to participate in financial education and potentially go so far as help them manage their finances.

Joined: 05/20/2009

MGoPoints: 1661

umhero

January 6th, 2010 at 7:13 AM ^

Completing a degree doesn't guarantee that they will learn anything about money management. Nor does it mean that they will complete a degree that provides a marketable skill when they start looking for a job. I think your suggestion the the NFL should do a better job of educating players is a good one. Most of these players are short-sighted. They don't believe that their career will only last 4 or 5 years. It might make more sense for the NFL to encourage a portion of each contract to be deferred until a player exits the league. At least then, they will know that they have entered the real world with a limited budget.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

jbibiza

January 5th, 2010 at 8:07 AM ^

I have not studied the other teams, but clearly Patterson has never been a key contributor to the Michigan defense; more like the Invisible Man. Most of us had great hopes for #99 when he surprisingly went Blue, but he has been singularly unimpressive to three defensive coordinators and countless assistants. The fact that he has been given almost no playing time at a position of little depth speaks volumes, and this culminated last year when he was buried beneath Heininger (no disrespect). He is the Doug Dutch of the defensive line and this is despite that fact that he is rumored to be a hard worker (as per GBMW). I would also strike Savoy from the list as he was in no way "key". Did we really take him over DeSean Jackson?! Even Olesnavage is marginal as we have a fine redshirt freshman kicker to take his place and he was only reasonably competent. So my count for UM would come to only 9 which makes us look even better except for the obvious and already posted fact that we are losing the three best players from our dismal defense and that includes BG who was an Extraordinary talent by any standard. That said, I understand that this is a generalized overview of what teams will be losing and I very much appreciate the effort put into it and the inspiration to invent this interesting perspective. Thanks.

Joined: 10/08/2009

MGoPoints: 7339

umhero

January 5th, 2010 at 8:36 AM ^

This is based on the depth charts from Rivals, player stats from Fox Sports (which only show offensive stats), and eligibility from Scout. I agree that it's hard to call Patterson and Savoy "key contributors" but it's hard to distinguish our questionable back ups from the other team's questionable back ups. I'm sure MSU fans or OSU fans could point to players on the list that weren't valuable to them either, so it made no sense to distinguish. I have changed the label from "key contributor" to "contributor."

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

Tater

January 5th, 2010 at 8:19 AM ^

Since I have been expecting a "we're baaaaack" 9-3 record the last two years, I have no reason to change my expectations. Hopefully, this is the year that UM regains its spot in the "Big Three." And, of course, this is hopefully the year when the evil scarlet and gray watches the pendulum swing back toward Michigan.

Joined: 08/13/2008

MGoPoints: 30584

Maize.Blue Wagner

January 5th, 2010 at 10:16 AM ^

Considering how things are playing out in the NFL, this seems like it might be the best time for Michigan to have a few "down years" (though I would prefer that there were none). Sure losing Warren is big, but better this happens now, than a year we were stocked with non-seniors, e.g. 2006 with Henne, Hart, and co, who would be tempted to jump to the NFL sooner than they might in a normal year. Again, I would prefer 13-0 every year, but if we have to have a down era, this seems to be the best time for it to happen.

Joined: 10/23/2009

MGoPoints: 2646

stmccoy

January 5th, 2010 at 10:57 AM ^

An update from Iowa for what it is worth, Adrian Clayborn has already declared he is going to stay and the word here is that Bulaga and Spievey are both leaving early. Bulaga will annouce tonight after the Orange Bowl. Thought this might update the numbers a litte.

Joined: 10/07/2009

MGoPoints: 2146

BleedingBlue

January 5th, 2010 at 4:32 PM ^

Great post - thanks for the work. Very interesting to see where teams need to fill holes. We saw that Penn State had a tough time replacing offensive line starters and the entire wide receiving corp and kick returners. (obvs still kicked Michigan's ass, but didn't really compete for the conference championship). Conversely, OSU reloaded that defense like whoa. I don't know if they can do that 2 years in a row, though. Wisconsin only losing 9 people potentially is SCARY...although Schofield and Clay were enormous for their team this year, that team should be crushing people next year. NW losing Kafka really hurts. Iowa will most likely take a step back as their players typically take longer to develop. EARLY prediction of conference results based on flimsy evidence: 1 Wisconsin 2 OSU 3 Michigan (whaaa!!?!?!) 4 Iowa 5 MSU 6 NWU 7 PSU 8 MINN 9 PUR 10 ILL 11 IU

Joined: 07/25/2008

MGoPoints: 2165

Logan88

January 5th, 2010 at 4:43 PM ^

I see the order more like this in 2010: 1) OSU 2) Wisconsin 3) Iowa The above three will be the clear leaders in the conference, fighting for the Big 10 title IMO. 4) Penn St. 5) Michigan St. 6) Michigan 7) Northwestern 8) Purdue The five listed above will qualify for bowl games. 9) Minnesota 10) Indiana 11) Illinois Frown-ey faces for the above three teams.

Joined: 01/05/2009

MGoPoints: 8078

the_white_tiger

January 5th, 2010 at 11:19 PM ^

Wisconsin will win the Big Ten, I think. Solid team, good lines, tons of returning experience (plus a good returning quarterback), a little momentum, Ohio State at home...

Joined: 02/07/2009

MGoPoints: 5224

FL_Steve

January 6th, 2010 at 1:17 AM ^

I think Indiana will surprise next year. They showed a lot of improvement and i think they could finish as high as 6th in the big ten. Also I think Minnesota will finish last, MSU is the wild card after playing well in the bowl game but losing so many players next season. 1 OSU... lets be real, i know it sucks 2 Wisconsin 3 Michigan 4 Iowa 5 PSU 6 PUR 7 NWU 8 IU 9 MSU 10 ILL 11 MINN

Joined: 01/14/2009

MGoPoints: 1866

jlvanals

January 6th, 2010 at 12:35 PM ^

The only problem is that IU loses its three best defensive players (Kirlew, Marberry and that other end who is good, but not as good as Kirlew) and that was their weakest area as a team. I don't see how they can lose the only three guys they had who were good in run support and suddenly be formidable enough to stop big ten offenses.

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 707

bronxblue

January 5th, 2010 at 12:55 PM ^

Good stuff. The breakdown was especially helpful for offense/defense. Outside of Grahama, Mesko, and (somewhat) Warren, the team isn't losing anyone I would term irreplaceable. Sure, Graham was as dominant a defensive player as anyone in the country (and that includes Suh) and Mesko bailed out the offense numerous times with great field position for the D, but the heart of this team returns, and that is encouraging. Of the teams on this list, I expect Illinois, MSU, and PSU (somewhat) to show the greatest drop in performance with all of the matriculation. Illinois is going to lose most of its gamebreakers in Benn and Juice, and if Dell is also suspended along with White leaving, that offense isn't going to scare anyone, plus their defense loses one of the few major pieces in Jones. Others have chronicled who is leaving PSU, but that offense will look drastically different than the HD one that has been dominating the Big 10 for the past few years.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 170998

Enjoy Life

January 5th, 2010 at 1:26 PM ^

It looks like college football is morphing into the problems of college basketball. Sure, it will never be as bad as a football player coming for a single year (like basketball) but the better the player the less likely he will ever stay around for the 4th year of eligibility. The fact that Henne, Hart, and Long all stayed (and probably saved Lloyd from a most inauspicious departure) is unlikely to ever happen in the future.

Joined: 07/02/2008

MGoPoints: 2658

aaamichfan

January 5th, 2010 at 2:19 PM ^

I actually believe the exact opposite of what you say will occur. With a future cap on rookie contracts, it may encourage players to come back for a 4th year because they will no longer be guaranteed to make millions if they happen to slide in the draft. As long as the "Three years removed from high school" rule stays in place, college football will continue to have far more talented players than college basketball. This potential uncapped year bodes very well for Michigan in 2010. I would feel much better about our chances in the Wisconsin game if John Clay weren't playing.

Joined: 10/23/2009

MGoPoints: 14362

Wolverine In Exile

January 5th, 2010 at 10:03 PM ^

1) The NFL has a lot more roster spots available every year compared to the number of NBA slots for college players. In the NBA, you have to jump when your stock peaks the first time so that you get that roster spot with a 1st rd pick. 2) One thing that may change the calculus is the UFL. I know a lot of people laughed it off this year, but if the NFL locks out in 2011, there still will be a cadre of graduating NCAA football players looking for work who would typically be 1-3 rd draft picks that will not be in the NFLPA getting strike checks. These players may go to the UFL to get a paycheck, immediately upgrade the talent and profile of the UFL, and consequently may unintentionally setup the UFL as a minor league for the NFL when the NFL comes back from the lockout.

Joined: 11/08/2008

MGoPoints: 10786

gte896u

January 5th, 2010 at 1:48 PM ^

not Georgia Tech University unless you were making fun of stephon marbury, if so i will +1 you accordingly for what its worth, i think only Morgan goes the AJC is reporting that 2011 MNC talk has begun among the players

Joined: 11/06/2008

MGoPoints: 2270

umhero

January 5th, 2010 at 2:10 PM ^

Thanks for the catch. I cut and pasted the list into my spreadsheet from NFL Draft Bible and didn't notice the error. Corrected

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

DGDestroys

January 5th, 2010 at 5:41 PM ^

Ha I was really confused when I saw a five star Norfolk State WR I shoulda known he's a transfer

Joined: 01/05/2010

MGoPoints: 19352

blue in ak

January 5th, 2010 at 7:18 PM ^

How much do our low numbers have to do with the stats posted in the Decimated Defense article? If no one's left from 5 years ago, and like 5% from 4 years ago, there aren't a whole lot of players to leave.

Joined: 09/16/2009

MGoPoints: 31

blue in ak

January 5th, 2010 at 7:19 PM ^

Not a whole lot of defensive players, that is.

Joined: 09/16/2009

MGoPoints: 31

PhillipFulmersPants

January 5th, 2010 at 11:04 PM ^

With 20 of the 87, the B10 is disproportionately represented in the early entry interest list in comparison to other major conferences. The SEC is close. At any rate, that probably doesn't bode well for conference strength in near term if a lot of these kids go. By comparison and my own informal count of other BCS conference players on list: SEC = 17 (Florida with 6) ACC = 13 (NC with 5, Ga Tech with 4) B12 = 10 (Oklahoma with 6) Pac10 = 8 Big East = 5

Joined: 01/06/2009

MGoPoints: 4222

Username2

January 6th, 2010 at 10:06 AM ^

That is a list of everyone who requested their draft rating from the NFL. By NO means are the majority of those people going pro. Looking at OSU specifically: Brandon Saine? - no Chmidi Chekwa? - no, has stated he will return Cameron Heyward? - could, but has declared he will return Dane Sanzenbacher? - no Bryant Browning? - no Justin Boren? - no Devin Torrence? - no Jermale Hines? - maybe Thaddeus Gibson? - gone That's one, maybe 2 of those that will not return.

Joined: 01/06/2010

MGoPoints: 1

OSU_Mike

January 6th, 2010 at 10:37 AM ^

UMHero....I think your numbers are off on starters/contributors. If you go by the last depth chart of the year, OSU returns 9 starters on O and 5 on D.

Joined: 01/06/2010

MGoPoints: 3

umhero

January 6th, 2010 at 1:53 PM ^

My source was Rivals. I haven't watched every team to know anything more than what they show on their site.

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

Tha Quiet Storm

January 6th, 2010 at 1:55 PM ^

As was stated, there are a lot of maybes involved with the players who could declare early. The fact that most of the teams in the league are going to have to replace upperclass starters and contributors while the bulk of UM's talent is located in its upcoming JR and SO classes bodes well for the near future.

Joined: 12/22/2008

MGoPoints: 2260

name redacted

January 6th, 2010 at 3:29 PM ^

..a third asterisk by Justin Boren's name. Should have read: Justin Boren*** * indicates non-starting contributor ** indicates early entrant *** indicates complete douche bag

Joined: 07/13/2009

MGoPoints: 1461

umhero

January 6th, 2010 at 4:49 PM ^

+1 for you sir

Joined: 07/26/2009

MGoPoints: 2894

jmblue

January 6th, 2010 at 4:12 PM ^

Really interesting to see the breakdown. PSU, wow, that's a rebuilding job. It's too bad we have to play them on the road. I didn't realize MSU was losing so much; they'll probably be overrated by the media because their QBs/RBs are coming back, but they've got massive holes to fill. Iowa, too, could have problems replacing so many guys up front.

Joined: 11/07/2008

MGoPoints: 102713

ShockFX

January 6th, 2010 at 9:04 PM ^

Penn State and ND will be in a world of hurt next year. IIRC, PSU classes from 2006 to 2008 had a complete lack of skill players, and ND from 2006-2008 had very, very few defensive recruits. I could be wrong, but this might finally catch up to PSU with sophomore Newsome at QB. Also, even with Kelly, ND is going to be in a world of hurt (losing Claussen, Tate, 3 OL, 5 defenders).

Joined: 07/16/2008

MGoPoints: 4073