OT- NFL Kickers are becoming automatic, and implications for fourth down
Interesting article out of FiveThirtyEight today. The author looks at NFL kicking over time and finds that it has very, very steadily risen with each passing year:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/kickers-are-forever/
What's most interesting is his conclusions toward the bottom, which state that going for it on 4th down from between 25-40 yards out may not be as smart of a decision as many statisticians believe. The Go-For-It crowd has been gaining a lot of momentum over the last few years (I've seen the chart he references quite a few times), but according to this author, taking the more "conservative" approach is quickly becoming the optimal strategy -- after all, an automatic 3 points is better than an outside shot at 7.
I don't know much about statistics, so I would be very interested to know if this guy's conclusions make sense. They pass the initial smell test to me, though.
On the other hand, we can't really apply these numbers to college football as kickers are notably less accurate (as we know). However, the implications at the top level are potentially significant.
January 28th, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^
tell that to the lions...
January 28th, 2015 at 9:43 AM ^
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January 28th, 2015 at 10:36 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
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January 28th, 2015 at 9:46 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^
Not to mention the "Curtains of Death" behind the wicket, which will be drawn aside immediately prior to each kick to reveal the painful torture device that will be used on the kicker in case of a miss. ASU ain't got a thang on that.
January 28th, 2015 at 9:45 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^
They need to adopt college hash marks. NFL kickers never have to deal with angles that college kickers do.
January 28th, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^
These guys are paid BIG money to kick a football --IT SHOULD BE AUTOMATIC!
January 28th, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^
You obviously have no idea how hard it is to kick a football.
January 28th, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 11:03 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 10:08 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^
That's a fascinating article. I don't understand all the math, but I like the pretty pictures! :-)
Seriously, cool article. Thanks for the link.
January 28th, 2015 at 9:54 AM ^
What happened to discussions of modifying the extra point?
I'd personally like to see the extra point kick moved back significantly. It'd make things a lot more interesting if a kicker has to make a 40 yarder instead of a 18-20 yarder.
January 28th, 2015 at 10:13 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 10:18 AM ^
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January 28th, 2015 at 10:25 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 10:00 AM ^
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January 28th, 2015 at 10:00 AM ^
Vince McMahon was on to somethng when he did away with the extra point in the XFL and made every team run a 2-point conversion after a TD. It wasn't a perfect solution but it was step in the right direction IMO.
January 28th, 2015 at 10:01 AM ^
when Brian lambasted coaches sometimes. But it's a different story in college, obviously. Field goals are really uninteresting, in my view. I wonder what would happen if you could only take them from 35 yards (for example) or more?
January 28th, 2015 at 10:07 AM ^
Basically the NHL was creating more variance in outcomes and nothing became automatic. NFL kickers have largely become automatic and it's become boring.
Narrow the damn goal posts. If nothing for the chaos!
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January 28th, 2015 at 10:19 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^
especially PLAYOFF hockey, feels like watching a random number generator. One team will put 40 pucks on net and score 1 goal, the other team puts 15 pucks on net and scores 2 goals. Playoff hockey becomes a game of "who has the hot goalie", which is why you see thoroughly mediocre teams winning the cup with decent frequency.
Of course, I'm not sure that the baseball playoffs are any less random. The two playoffs where the better teams seem to actually win most of the time are the NFL and the NBA.
January 28th, 2015 at 1:19 PM ^
There was talk of the NHL increasing the size of the nets, instead they shrunk the goalie equipment. They also moved the goal 2 feet closer to the end boards and backed up the blue lines - making the offensive zone larger. I'd equate the line changes to NBA's 3 point line/lane width.
January 28th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^
Extra points backed up to a 35 yard FG for Pro and 25 yards for College. I would do that first and look at a season's worth of data to see what effects it had.
January 28th, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
Of course they posted this after Adam freakin' Vinatieri misses two PATs and a 38-yarder in the Pro Bowl.
January 28th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
The Pro Bowl doesn't count. Kicking is a mental game, while the Pro Bowl and focused effort are mutually exclusive concepts.
/obvious observation is obvious
January 28th, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^
this thread title as "NFL players are becoming autistic".
Need to find my glasses.
January 28th, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^
The same ball used as a game ball should be used for kicks.
January 28th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
And to go a step further, the game balls should be provided by the league. The players are professionals - they can deal.
January 28th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
balls and the regular ones? I know they are kept separate. I think they should narrow the posts two feet and widen the hash marks two yards each. They narrowed the hashes to make the scrimmage game more exciting. I also think PATs should be set at the 25 yard line. If so, the lions wouldn't have made the playoffs. Based on the results, that would have been better draft wise
January 28th, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^
It's all about context; early in a game I think it makes sense to take points, but once you get a feel for how each team's offense and defense is playing, it might be worth going for it even if the 3 points are pretty easy. This study is interesting, though, in that it probably pushes those in-between distances more to FG shots than 4th-down conversions earlier in games.
January 28th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
I hate field goals in the NFL. Yeah, the kickers are generally better than in college, but it still makes no sense why the degree of difficulty is lower in NFL than in college. Move the damn hashmarks to college width!
January 28th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^
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January 28th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^
The 25 yard line change for xp is a poor fix, it needlessly complicates the game. They should just eliminate the xp all together and make TDs worth 7 points. If you want to risk 1 point to go for 2 you can do that, but the xp is a total waste of time and not worth "making more interesting".
January 28th, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^
January 28th, 2015 at 6:51 PM ^