Searchbits VIII: There Is No Carr Illuminati Comment Count

Brian

PULL THE STRINGS. There was another round of echo-chamber Carrspiracy stuff on the various message boards over the past couple days. No idea why, unless Brian Griese expressing his opinion that he wouldn't go after Harbaugh is reason to envision Carr as a puppet master cackling behind the scenes. For the nth time, Carr is a civilian who only talks to the athletic department when they call him up. That is not frequently.

And then there's this, via Craig Ross by way of Sam Webb:

“I am not involved in the coaching search in any direct way,” Carr said.  “However, I have been asked my opinion. My opinion was Jim Harbaugh would be my number one choice.”

This take was replicated at the News a bit later; 247 also freed up an article from a couple weeks ago in which they described what was going down between Carr and Harbaugh:

We've confirmed with a few different sources that any animosities between former Michigan head coach Lloyd Carr and Harbaugh have been mended, and very recently. Carr's influence at this point is unknown, but it's believed he had a hand in the hiring of Brady Hoke during the last coaching search, and there's been a history of a tenuous relationship between the two since Harbaugh's comments about Michigan football and academics when he coached at Stanford. This is mostly important in the idea that there's no doubt Harbaugh will be Michigan's top target when the job opens up, and it's looking more and more like it will be a full group effort with all the oars rowing in the same direction. That makes this likely coaching search different than the last two already.

Even that bit about "having a hand" in the last search conflicts with my information, in which Carr was asked if he thought Brady was a good dude and said yes because everyone says yes to that question.

Carr is not interested in machinations. Michigan might be better off if he was—if he was inclined to call his guys up and get them to toe the line. But that's not who he is, for better or worse. I look forward to my next item pointlessly begging the internet to stop it with the Carrmason stuff. Y'all should get a pool going. I've got two hours ago.

TIMEFRAMES. Hackett met with the players yesterday and told them they'd have a new coach within a month:

"He wasn't overly specific," one person said. "But he mentioned that in all likelihood the whole situation will be resolved before the players return from their Christmas break."

That would be the start of the new semester on January 4th, a timeline long enough to resolve the Harbaugh issue. Or it could happen any time before that.

Jim-Harbaugh[1]

HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH. Zero clarity. Sam threw some cold water on the idea($), citing a couple of sources who think it's going to be tougher than they previously thought. His best guess is still Harbaugh, FWIW. Those are gentlemen who have talked to Harbaugh directly, so I would take that seriously. Gregg Henson, who's been beating the ITSHAPPENING.gif drum harder than anyone for a solid month now, is also walking his position back a bit.

On the other hand, Rivals is emitting the kind of ambiguously encouraging bits that have little information content—they're enough to get people in frenzy mode but  laden with plausible deniability. There was poll on their board about what people would do in the event of a Harbaugh hire; it was heavy on the wink-wink with "but it's still a coinflip" attached. That link above is to a "you're gonna like Jim Hackett!" tweet. I mean… cumong, man.

If Harbaugh doesn't end up at M a ton of people are going to be pissed at them and they'll blame the people who are praising them to the heavens now, just like they strenuously denied that Harbaugh and Brandon had a problem working together until the instant Brandon left.

But that's none of my business.

The upshot here: Sam's hearing stuff that we don't want to hear, Henson is still pretty gung ho but hearing some things that give him pause, and Rivals is on the optimistic side. 247 has not ventured anything($) resembling a "probably" or "probably not," which is where I'm at, too: at this point it feels like Harbaugh's yes or no is about which neurons fire in his brain at the critical moment.

Meanwhile, Wojo details why things might go better this time:

Interim athletic director Jim Hackett knows it can't be cursory, which was the case four years ago. Dave Brandon didn't want to play the wooing game and cede control. But now Michigan football sits at another dangerous juncture, and while Harbaugh isn't the only prime candidate, he's the first and best one, an instant infusion of energy and credibility. And I doubt he'd use his alma mater simply to get a better deal elsewhere. I think he'd tell Michigan if he weren't interested, and he hasn't done that yet.

Wojo's "sense" is that Michigan would pay in the Urban Meyer range, which is kind of close to the Godfather offer reports.

STOOPS STOOPS STOOPS. Also zero clarity, with plenty of people saying there's no way and plenty of other people saying that this might be a point at which a mutual separation from Oklahoma makes sense.

I personally doubt it's feasible because of the Florida search, but as I mentioned in the comments of the Mullen PIH "Jeremy Foley is not good at his job" is a reasonable explanation for a lot of Florida's actions over the last five years, so it is possible that they just overlooked the possibility. Also, Stoops has a game this weekend and may be evaluating his situation more closely afterward.

Stoops's justifiably pissy reaction to the "ARE U JOB X" question sticks out, though. Chatter is just chatter.

ON THE RADAR. A group of guys appear to be filling out the B list:

  • JIM MORA, UCLA. Sam Webb broached his name in an article, and now Cowherd's chattering about a secret Michigan candidate who is thankfully not Greg Schiano. Cowherd is based in LA and would have more reason to know about a guy in LA; I've also gotten a little chatter to that effect. Former M OL Courtney Morgan is on Mora's staff, so he could be a point of contact. Sam also points out that Mora and Mike DeBord were on the same Seahawks staff($) five or so years ago.
  • KYLE WHITTINGHAM, UTAH. Wittingham's well-known to the Michigan brass after multiple encounters with him in the recent past and has a solid resume. Poachability is a bit of an issue, and Utah had a rough transition to the Pac-12, but he's a solid option Sam says is getting some chatter from the West.
  • DAN MULLEN, MSU. Sam says that "surprisingly enough," Mullen is getting attention. That this would be surprising bothers me, but there it is.
  • STEVE ADDAZIO, BC. I hate this idea but it has enough chatter that someone somewhere clearly has him on the list. Again, Addazio is 55 and is coming off consecutive seven-win seasons at BC; he was the disastrous follow-up to Mullen as Florida OC. He makes no sense unless Mullen is off the table.
    Butch Jones is seemingly also a person of interest, but with Tennessee preparing to give him an extension after a 6-6 year when he's got four years left on his contract it looks like the Vols are trying to block interest before it gets started. Carr also pumped up Art Briles to Craig Ross when they talked, which is pretty interesting. Unfortunately you have to figure that if Briles wanted to leave Waco he'd be the guy at Texas right now.

OKAY THEN. Someone asked Teryl Austin about the Michigan job, and this is an actual-denial denial:

But Austin says he has no interest in pursuing the Wolverines' head coaching position, which opened after the firing of Brady Hoke earlier this week.

"No," he said. "I'm interested in this (Lions) job."

Michigan going after someone in his first successful season as a coordinator (and second overall) was a monster longshot anyway.

SORRY, THAT'S NOT ALL OF US. Local New Orleans reporter on the Sean Payton loves hotdogs thing:

Rivals broadened their hot board in response… by adding Mike Tomlin and Josh McDaniels.

Etc.: Local columnist Sharpin' it by yelling at Les Miles to take the job. Thamel says the pace will be "deliberate," which I'm suddenly very much in favor of after the Florida/Nebraska searches.

Comments

funkywolve

December 5th, 2014 at 11:24 AM ^

I'd say if Harbaugh is the number 1 target it's a waiting game as long as the Niners are in the playoff hunt.  If/once the Niners are eliminated from the playoff picture we will probably know pretty quickly whether Harbaugh is going to be the next coach.  The kicker with all this is if the Niners somehow turn it around and make the playoffs - the wait becomes even longer.  However, with no other big name schools looking for a coach the odds of a Stoops, Whittingham, Miles, etc. still being available a mont or say from now is almost 100%.

I said in another thread and Brian said the same thing here, one of the best things to happen to UM was Florida and Nebraska hiring their new coaches so quickly.  At this point if Harbaugh is #1 on the list, UM probably doesn't have to worry to much about their #2 or #3 options being hired by someone else within the next month.

funkywolve

December 5th, 2014 at 11:34 AM ^

The Niners get the Raiders this weekend so they will more then likely continue to be in the playoff hunt next week.  However, the following weekend they go to Seattle and depending what happens this weekend and next, the Niners might be eliminated or their playoff hopes might be hanging on a thread come December 16th.

winterblue75

December 5th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^

The Arizona Cardinals are now in a freefall after losing Carson Plamer, the Niners will probably be only one game back of them after this weekend. If the Lions revert to their SOL ways, the Niners could very well find themselves in that second wild card spot.

funkywolve

December 5th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^

is definitely a big x factor in all this.  A couple of weeks ago most people thought they were close to a lock to win the division.

The Seattle game is huge for the Niners because of the tiebreaker issues.  There's a lot of football left to played but the Niners don't control their destiny.  They are 2 games behind the Carindals and Eagles and a game behind the Cowboys (technically 1.5 games after last night), Lions and Seahawks.  The Niners probably can't afford to lose more then 1 game the rest of the way if they want to make the playoffs.

With Seattle and Eagles playing this weekend and Seattle/SF and Eagles/Cowboys next weekend, the Niners playoff hopes will probably be a lot clearer in 10 days.

MI Expat NY

December 5th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^

You also have the Cowboys/Eagles loser.  

Niners have three games left vs. teams fighting for their playoff lives (Seattle, San Diego, Arizona).  Even if they manage to go 2-1 against those three, they need at least two of Seattle to lose two, Arizona to lose 3, Dallas to lose 2 (of 3 games), Philly to lose 3 and Detroit to lose 2 to even bring tiebreakers into play.  No idea how those tiebreakers play out.  

Detroit should take care of business the next three weeks.  Philly finishes with Washington and NYG, so even if they lose to Seattle and Dallas, they should be 11-5.  Seattle and Arizona have tough schedules, but one will get a win against the other and each get a shot at the Niners.  If the Niners loses to either of them, I'm hard pressed to see them getting the wild card. I don't think they'll be eliminated in two weeks with a loss to Seattle, but I think they'll be damn close.

funkywolve

December 5th, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^

Niners beat the Cowboys and Eagles earlier in the year so the Niners own the head to head with those teams.  Have no idea with the Lions.  The Seahawk game in two weeks is huge for the Niners because of tiebreaker issues.  Getting swept by the Seahawks would mean the Niners have to finish ahead of the Seahawks to either win the division or get a wild card spot ahead of the Seahawks.

WolvinLA2

December 5th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^

Yeah - the Niners are not out of it at all.  The Lions have the Bucs this weekend at home, so they should win that, but both the Cards and Seahawks have tough games this weekend and the Niners get the Seahawks next week.  A lot will shakeout in the next couple of weeks.  

If the Niners could just lose to the Raiders this weekend or the Seahawks and/or Cardinals pull off a win, that would be great.

S FL Wolverine

December 5th, 2014 at 11:40 AM ^

I agree with everything you said here except one thing: 

 "Regarding Harbaugh, things need to wait out until the regular season is over."

 It occurred to me the other day, when the reports circulated that Hackett would be taking a shot at Harbaugh "through the 49ers", that this might mean trying to get a commitment and/or the services of Harbaugh before the season ends.  From what I understand, Hackett *could* have just gone to Harbaugh without talking to the 49ers and he could have negotiated and signed him; Hackett is not part of the NFL and is not bound by their contracts. However, Harbaugh would probably have to wait until the end of the season to announce his departure in that scenario (Contract implications?  Integrity issue?).  However, if Hackett negotiates directly with SF and agrees to pay part or all of his buyout, SF might agree to either: an announcement that Harbaugh will be joining Michigan after the season, OR even an agreement to let him leave to coach Michigan before the season is over.  SF is in a bind right now.  They don't apparently want Harbaugh any longer, but the whole "Harbaugh to Michigan" thing has to make any potential trade of Harbaugh infeasible.  Hackett could give SF something it badly wants while getting what Michigan wants.  I can't see any other benefit in going "through" SF.

 

 

MGlobules

December 5th, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^

being above-board in his approach. Shows strong intent to Harbaugh, may preempt behind-the-scenes efforts by SF to trade Harbaugh, too.

Meanwhile, all kinds of things could be happening with Harbaugh--he could be insisting that he's doing his job and making a decision when the time comes. Could be weighing matters; could be negotiating with his family. But it's likely he has indicated at least some real interest.

charblue.

December 5th, 2014 at 12:43 PM ^

one was to me both the most interesting and most valid, primarily because of the rationale you have just expressed, Hackett's desire to be upfront about UM's interest in Harbaugh, and the negotiating position that such a public declaration presents.

So far, Michigan has complied with most of what Harbaugh wanted to see from Michigan, it dumped Brandon, and it softly ended the tenure of Brady Hoke, whose connections to Harbaugh family through and outside of Michigan link everyone in the Michgian coaching fraternity. Then, you add the latest public endorsement from Lloyd Carr, and you've cleared another emotional hurdle stemming from any lingering bad feelng over Harbaugh's prior remarks about Michigan football and alleged steering of athletes into certain academic programs.

I can see why that might be offputting internally, but this should be an issue that got a lot more serious attention and focus now with North Carolina  facing possible sanctions over its 18-year effort to keeo basketball players eligible by offering them no- show classes and non-performance work to obtain fixed grades. 

Beyond that, the other reports suggesting Michigan is willing to pay above market price to obtain Harbaugh's services, ought to be indication enough just how serious the effort is to land their No. 1 target. And because of all this, buying into filtered feedback from sources close to Harbaugh are, at this point, simply efforts to quell the media reports or give Harbaugh more time to sort out what it will take for him to leave the 49ers.

Because of that, Harbaugh will tell Michigan directly if he doesn't want to coach in Ann Arbor, and that will be the hardest professional choice of his career. Look, there will always be NFL openings, and maybe there will another opportunity to coach at Michigan for Harbaugh. But if he turns the school down now, when the Michigan universe is calling and his own club is pushing him out the door, then he will be making an unwise decision.

Therefore, I believe Harbaugh will be our next coach and it will happen when he decides with Hackett's approval to make the announcement, probably before his final game in SF or immediately after.

funkywolve

December 5th, 2014 at 1:50 PM ^

As long as Jim is successful the opportunity to coach in the NFL will probably always be there.  Heck, there's a handful of NFL openings every year. However, the opportunity to coach at UM might not.  Who knows maybe Harbaugh turns it down and the new hire flops so in another 4-5 years the opportunity to coach UM is there again but there's also the chance that the new coach is successful and maybe he stays for 15-20 yrs.  Then Harbaugh's window to coach at UM is over.

In addition, this wouldn't be a rebuild like he had at Stanford.  Based upon the post yesterday, UM has tons of returning starts coming back next year, and if the recruiting services are any where close to correct, the cupboard is anything but bare.  Harbaugh should be able to hit the ground running and not worry about having to slog through some 2-10/5-7 type seasons like he did at Stanford.

StraightDave

December 5th, 2014 at 11:08 AM ^

hell, why not?  He can recruit, win, and it would seriously eat at the nut fans.   What about Auburn's OC, Rhett Lashlee?  A lot of people are high on this guy and think he'll get a HC job soon.

Go Blue in MN

December 5th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^

No one who understands what Michigan stands for would seriously propose that we hire that slime bag Tressel.  It is disturbing that I have seen his name come up several times in connection with the coaching search. 

GoWings2008

December 5th, 2014 at 11:09 AM ^

"at this point it feels like Harbaugh's yes or no is about which neurons fire in his brain at the critical moment."

This is the crux of where we are.  And I've become aware of a drug that helps isolate those neurons to the positive tendencies...

carlos spicywiener

December 5th, 2014 at 11:14 AM ^

I hold the old-timers in the AD directly responible for the past 7 years of crap football. Had they bit the bullet and brought in Les Miles in 2007, he'd have quickly surpassed Tressel at OSU, have Michigan well ready to battle Urban Meyer, and we'd have a least a Big 10 title or two.

It is their fault we didn't hire the best man for the job.

And it seems they will never admit it.

Waveman

December 5th, 2014 at 11:16 AM ^

I think we have near unanimity that Harbaugh is options1-4. I'd put Stoops clearly at option 5 if there really is some possibility. I'm assuming guys like Saban, Malzahn, Patterson, Briles are unavailable.

We can debate where Mullen, Whittingham, Mora Jr., and Graham stand on people's lists, but here's where my concern about the search comes in... If Miles "would accept if offered," as we're hearing (and I trust Brian on that fact), why is there a B-list that includes Addazio and Schiano?

To me Miles is right behind Stoops, but I can understand taking a hard look at Mullen or Mora. I even understand building a very comprehensive list. I just can't conceive of a scenario in which you KNOW Miles wants the job and even bother to put anyone past, say, Graham into your evaluation.

alum96

December 5th, 2014 at 11:19 AM ^

If this was OSU or Auburn and Miles had told them he'd be on a plane within 3 hrs of offered he'd be #2 on the list. 

But this is Michigan fergodsakes.

Supposedly Hackett told the players yesterday there are 14 candidates...

alum96

December 5th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^

It is actually pretty difficult to come up with 14 serious names even using the rumor mongering

In no order

  1. Miles
  2. Harbaugh
  3. Stoops
  4. Whittingham
  5. Mora
  6. Mullen
  7. Adazzio
  8. Richt
  9. Shaw
  10. Butch Jones
  11. Patterson - supposedly already said no
  12. Schiano
  13. Pinkel
  14. Herman?
  15. Graham? - I doubt UM would consider him
  16. Briles? Carr says yes

Waveman

December 5th, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^

I have no problem with calling Kelly and Bellichek, too... Swing for the fences, but Miles should be the floor. That's a pretty damn high floor.

If he's not the floor, I'm afraid that we're not just looking for the best available coach, but trying to appease hurt feelings in the old guard.

Waveman

December 5th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^

If you're willing to settle for Addazio or Schiano, why not just keep the nice guy who graduates players.

Just tell Miles that the over-signing and cutting players is unacceptable and that the AD will be paying attention.

I can say this comfortably, if they hire a low-performing coach, it will be one misstep too many. I will lose all emotional investment in this team. Why should I care if they win or lose when the Athletic Department doesn't care?

Waveman

December 5th, 2014 at 1:28 PM ^

I knew there were some overly-light punishments for legal issues, and I'm familiar with the over-signing. Both of these seem like they could be solved by AD oversight. I don't give a damn about negative recruiting. None of these put him on a blacklist for me. Behind other elite coaches, sure. Behind average to good coaches, no way!

If you have some solid indication that he covered up crimes, paid players, or encouraged/covered up PED use, I would change my tune, but that's not what I've generally heard him accused of.

I figure Miles to be about as slimy as he can get away with under the rules. Set a different set of rules and see how it goes. Given the choice of Miles vs. Stoops or Briles, and I'm on board with the latter, no question. But I think Miles is in the very, very top tier of coaches in the country, so unless there's some serious smoke around the more serious allegations, I'd rather Miles over almost anyone being listed as "plausible."

UMaD

December 5th, 2014 at 2:15 PM ^

There is a broad spectrum therin.  You can make some very valid critiques of a program or you can make shit up about the health issues of the coach.  There is honest considerations/critiques related to opposing programs (which you can argue a coach SHOULD give to a player) and then there is inventing problems that the program has to waste their time debunking and extend beyond said player's recruiting battle.

There was a sports illustrated piece that detailed the many shenanigans under Miles at Oklahoma State.  Miles has never been "found guilty" on anything but the rumors are unending, wide-ranging, and not at all becoming.  There is black smoke, grey smoke, brown smoke and lots of it.  The same has been rumored of Miles assistants such as Bo Pelini (which seem plausible given how he was run out of town despite consistent success and replaced by Mike Riley. Riley is a great coach in the eyes of many, isn't exactly a sure-fire proven "name". Many programs would consider Pelini the superior coach I think.)

Miles is definitly not playing by the rules and assuming an old dog will learn new tricks in a more difficult environment is asking for trouble.

Miles is not coming by Michigan's choice. Briles is not coming by his choice (and maybe Michigan's too, but that debate is moot.)  Who knows about Stoops...

Disagree strongly that Miles is a top tier coach at this stage of his career.  He is handed top 5 talent and rarely produces top 5 results. His offenses are always frustratingly inept for the level of talent.  In many ways he is the rich man's Brady Hoke on the field, but the poor man's Rich Rodriguez off of it.

UMaD

December 5th, 2014 at 12:39 PM ^

Hackett wanted to get a few things out from that meeting and "no cheating" was one of them. 

Part of why Mullen and Miles will not be the coaches here unless Plans A through Y fall through.  Richt is the only SEC guy that seems vaguely attractive to what M wants and he's not leaving that job, unless there is something we don't know...

UMaD

December 5th, 2014 at 12:34 PM ^

Plausible

  • Harbaugh
  • Stoops
  • Addazio
  • Schiano
  • Graham (mercinary)
  • Wittingham (Utah will always have recruiting problems)
  • Shaw  (only because of Harbaugh connection)
  • Miles (last resort, Plan Z)

Not Plausible

  • Mullen
  • Richt
  • Mora
  • Patterson
  • Pinkel
  • Briles
  • Payton, Gruden, John H, Tomlin, NE's coach, NE's QB, Bill Walsh

UMaD

December 5th, 2014 at 2:20 PM ^

but no -- I've listed a slew of reasons why Mullen won't leave MSU in previous threads.  The counter-arguments have been few and basically boil down to "our conference sucks" and "our recruiting potential is better".

That I'm in the minority doesn't mean I'm wrong. I've also been negged for vociforously arguing that the 2013 OL will not be better than 2012 "because it can't get worse".  I was called negative and contrarian then too.  The argument then was terrible and I called BS on it.  The argument that Mullen would leave MSU for UM are terrible too.

charblue.

December 5th, 2014 at 1:04 PM ^

firm, you might as well give them some work to do. Out of that list, someone is sure to say yes.

And as long as that yes comes from Jim Harbaugh first and foremost, contacting the others was good form and a sign of a true search and honest approach to the process instead of the process dictating terms of the search.

I like the way Hackett has handled all aspects of this situation so far. He seems to know how to handle the press, gain input and direct activities which offer both a positive and thoughtful strategy by being transparent without giving away your intent or position. It makes Michigan look extremely professional in the process.