On Harbaugh, Brandon, And Other Such Things
ALL RIGHT, PEOPLE. We are probably embarking on a coaching search in the near future and also probably embarking on an AD search in the near future. When these things happen I get buckets of insider information from provenances both dubious and legit, and at some point they cross the threshold where I think they're useful to relate.
When I do this I want things to be supported by multiple people, or people I've heard from before and were accurate. I've learned over the years that when you get in these situations a lot of people stridently believe things that turn out to be wrong, so keep that in mind; I strive to be precise with my language to give people the right impression of how strongly these opinions are held.
So…
ON JIM HARBAUGH. There are plenty of media reports suggesting that Harbaugh won't be with the 49ers next year; I've heard similar things. I've also heard that people within the 49ers organization think that maybe Harbaugh isn't an NFL guy, long term, and that Harbaugh is also coming to this realization as the guys in his locker room start getting more and more ornery. Michigan is not a far-fetched destination according to them.
ON DAVE BRANDON. I mentioned this on twitter and should clarify. There is the Big Ballers Meeting and then a Meeting With A Lot Of Big Ballers And Some Smaller Ballers And Some People Who Do Nice Stuff For The University. I got a report from the latter, in which Schlissel sat down for a Q&A session that was moderated by Stephen Ross. Nothing said was definitive, but almost all of the side chatter centered on how Brandon wasn't going to make it and Ross didn't seem like he was going to throw a hissy fit if a change was made. Even in this context away from the madding crowd the first issue addressed was the AD; Schlissel reiterated his point about a culture change; there seemed to be big baller chatter about who might be next.
Now: these people are not universally omniscient. There was chatter that things might go down last Tuesday. Obviously they did not. Don't take that as gospel.
ON THE COMBINATION OF HARBAUGH AND BRANDON. Never say never but I've heard from guys who know Harbaugh who say that Jim working for Dave is highly unlikely to happen. I do not have signed affidavits, but… yeah. As chatter goes this drumbeat is intense.
ON HOKE SURVIVING. This is likely to become moot this weekend, but serious people are asserting that he's not dead yet and could get by with a 7-5 record that includes a win over MSU or OSU, or even that 6-6 might be enough.
I don't think this is the case, as the powers that be know that season tickets are on a knife edge now and bringing Hoke back could see significant drops. It's impossible to know anything about Hoke's status given the uncertainty about the top of the department; the information being discussed is going to point strongly to a change no matter who is in charge.
ON AD CANDIDATES. Amongst the obvious Michigan Man candidates I would peg the pecking order as
- Jeff Long (Arkansas)
- Brad Bates (BC)
- Warde Manuel (UConn)
- Joe Parker (Texas Tech's associate AD)
There's a bigger gap between 2 and 3 than between 1 and 2 or 3 and 4. Michigan may go off the board, of course, but Long in particular seems to have the respect of the AD community—he's the CoFoPoff chair—and made a stunning hire of Bret Bielema after the Petrino situation blew up in his face.
Also worth noting that he handled the PR of that disaster as well as can be expected. Bates and Manuel have not had to face similar crises yet.
ON JABRILL PEPPERS. This is not certain otherwise Michigan would have announced it but I've gotten several seemingly independent sources asserting that Peppers isn't going to play again this year. Michigan just threw him on top of the depth chart at nickel and punt return, so I don't know… I just wouldn't be surprised if he didn't play this weekend.
ON LLOYD CARR. Lloyd Carr is a civilian. He is neither involved nor wants to be involved in the day-to-day of the athletic department, and if you have a conspiracy theory involving him it is ridiculous and you should just drop it.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^
As for Jim harbaugh, he will coach somewhere other than San Fran next year. He will also sign a multi year contract. If we are going to get him at all this is the time. John has had some issues with his front office and may be looking around and as time goes by those issues will go away so the time is also this year. Miles is having a down year at lsu (I'd take his record in a heartbeat) and might be ready to come home. Again who knows about next year.
All in all it needs to happen this year.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^
Hoke stays for another year if we're bowl eligible?
October 21st, 2014 at 12:47 PM ^
The same odds of Brian headbutting a nail
October 21st, 2014 at 1:14 PM ^
So you're saying there's a chance!
October 21st, 2014 at 1:19 PM ^
Or eating a Lemon????
October 21st, 2014 at 5:21 PM ^
For Hoke to return in 2015
- He has to turn this year around in a big way, AND
- A Les Moss-to-Sparky Anderson upgrade must not be waiting in the wings
Hoke has allowed himself to become vunerable to #2. With the unprecedented risk to the $82mm/yr football cash cow, any prudent fiduciary would remove that risk immediately with a Jim Harbaugh hire.
As to the turnaround, rather than a specific number of wins, I would think in terms of conditions, no different from the preseason, although knowing he has burned a ton of capital and opportunity. After the season
- There should be reason to be jacked for 2015
- It should be clear that we are above the middle-of-the-B1G pack and approaching MSU & OSU. With so small of a sample left to establish that, I think at the very least he needs to beat one of MSU or OSU and be very competitive in the other.
I have no expectation that this is going to happen. However, consider the Ohio State turnaround in 2004.
Ohio entered the 2004 campaign ranked #9 AP preseason. After going 3-0 in the out-of-conference slate, the Bucks rose to #7. However, Ohio lost its first three B1G games, 33-27 @Northwestern, 24-13 at home to Wisconsin, and 33-7 @Iowa City. After the Iowa thrashing, the Buckeyes fell out of the Top 25.
Unfortunately, as we know, the Buckeyes recovered to beat Michigan 37-21 in Columbus. The upset over the seventh-ranked 9-1 Wolverines was part of a 5-1 finish after their horrid start. The Bucks topped it all off with a 33-7 thumping of an Oklahoma State team in the Alamo Bowl. Oklahoma State had been ranked but dropped out in the Nov 28 poll.
The following year, the Buckeyes began the season ranked #6 in the AP preseason poll.
I think that's what the turnaround would need to resemble. Good luck with that.
http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/div_ia/bigten/ohio_state/2000-2004_yea…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_NCAA_Division_I-A_football_rankings
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_NCAA_Division_I-A_football_rankings
October 21st, 2014 at 10:39 PM ^
I second this. It's all about trajectory. Does Michigan look like a program that can regularly beat OSU and MSU?
I think 2015 will be better under Hoke . . . but not better enough. He doesn't have the edge and acumen to go toe to toe with Meyer and Dantonio.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^
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October 21st, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^
As long as the stunning hire ends with Harbaugh, I'm ok with it.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:26 PM ^
While his record is quite poor, Arkansas is a much better team this year.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:32 PM ^
He hasn't been horrendously bad. He inherited a horrendously bad team that got blown out a lot last year, and he already has them playing much more competitively. I don't know many Wisconsin fans who wanted him gone, but that would be pretty stupid considering he went to the Rose Bowl his last three years there.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:36 PM ^
Bielema is by pretty much every account a giant tool who pisses off everyone who he comes in contact with. Wisconsin and Michigan fans are similar enough that you can sort of extrapolate how that went over with them.
October 21st, 2014 at 1:13 PM ^
My roommate is from Madison and his dad is a Wisconsin undergrad/law school alum. From what I've been told, I can totally understand why Wisconsin fans hated him despite the success that he had. Bielema, despite being a good coach, seems to be a genuinely terrible person to be around. So that it doesn't sound like I'm completely making accusations/withholding information, a car service in Madison refused to let him ride in their cars. They'd take his wife, who doesn't sound much better, but not him.
October 21st, 2014 at 3:39 PM ^
Tools get the girls. A word to the wise.
October 21st, 2014 at 3:15 PM ^
Big Bert strikes me as a big tool who is an otherwise good football coach. Arkansas schedule is horrific this year with the Mississippi teams rising up. For most of the West's history those were the bottom 2 teams in the division. Now its Arkansas.
Look at this schedule - only A&M was a bad loss in retrospect and that was an OT game
- @Auburn - lost 45-21
- @Texas Tech (Iowa level team in Big 12) - won 49-28
- @Texas A&M - lost 35-28 (OT)
- Alabama - lost 14-13
- Georgia - lost 45-32 (this game was not as close as indicated)
Future
- @#1 Miss State
- #23 LSU
- #3 Ole Miss
- @Missouri
Those are 9 of Big Bert's 12 games. That is ridiculous. Missouri and Texas Tech are the easy ones - and a year ago Missouri was a top 5 team (they are down this year).
October 21st, 2014 at 4:22 PM ^
I don't know of any "Wisconsin fans" who liked Bielema and I live in Wisconsin. Makes me question how many such fans you actually know. I would not be surprised if Barry Alvarez realized he made a bad choice in Bielema and may have helped him out the door.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:32 PM ^
I think it's less about the hire itself and more about the manner in which the search was carried out. It's Arkansas, not Alabama - Bielema was about the ceiling for them.
But nobody heard a god damn peep about it until the ink was dry. Nothing. No leaks, no drama. Do you realize how goddamn impossible that is to do today, carry out a full head coaching search without compromising anybody's job or forcing anybody's hand?
Dude is a genius. Hope it gets done.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 1:01 PM ^
then Hoke gets fired first. It's a simple solution if that's a problem. for him
October 21st, 2014 at 1:21 PM ^
Im sure Long is able to handle firing a friend in the course of the job if necessary..but I think that is different than accepting a job with the intention to walk in and fire a close friend in your first few weeks on the job.
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October 21st, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^
The president could easily fire the coach along with Brandon. I don't see that as any kind of a stumbling block. I would expect that interviews with AD candidates are going to involve discussions about Hoke's future. Suppose everyone says they think Hoke has to go? Schlissel would just be making the announcement, not the decision. It's also possible that the timing could help in the search for his replacement.
I don't like the idea of Schlissel firing coaches for their W-L records, but I would have had no problem if he had stepped in and fired Hoke for his handling of Shane Morris. While that might still be the AD's job, it's ultimately the president who's responsible for the conduct of university employees and the welfare of its students.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^
The troll job of Jim leaving the professional ranks and going back to Stanford would destroy the psyche of this blog. Set it on fire and piss on the ashes
October 21st, 2014 at 1:06 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 1:23 PM ^
At this point, i cant even think about that. Hope is the only thing i have at this point...
October 21st, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^
Stanford has a successful coach in place. My bigger worry IF he wants back in college is some hail mary out of Florida if they fail on Mullen.
October 21st, 2014 at 1:32 PM ^
I don't, but frankly, every element of that scenario just sounds crazy. Shaw loves working under Harbaugh so much that he prefers that to being a very successful HC? So much so, that he won't mind his salary getting cut by at least 2/3? Or Stanford thinks it's a good idea to pay a coordinator $3M/year to accomodate an ex-coach who bolted for greener pastures?
I don't get why people think Harbaugh coming back to Michigan is out of the question. I seriously wonder if anyone but some Michigan fans feel that way. It's infintely more likely than some of the other possibilities being bandied about like hiring a Div-3 coach. We'll never know the complete truth abouth coaching searches, but I think there was a good chance Harbaugh was coming here last time unti the 49ers job opened up.
October 21st, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^
that Harbaugh would be willing to come back as an assistant, is it not?
October 21st, 2014 at 6:55 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 12:22 PM ^
"smaller ballers"
LMAO
October 21st, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
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October 21st, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
Great, well framed post, Brian. Thank you. I like this as a way that blogs can communicate gossip with some transparency and discretion in a way that more formal news sources can't (and probably shouldn't).
It's especially nice to see you rein in the Carr conspiracy theories. They've been getting a little more ridiculous than usual lately.
I'm not the first to suggest this, but I, too, would be interested if you've heard anything about John Harbaugh. There has seemed to be more chatter about him than Jim, but I don't know if that's totally baseless.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh ain't comin'. And frankly, it's like talking about the no-hitter in progress. Better to just outright ignore the possibility and see if fortune smiles, because talking about it inflates everyone's hopes and we all know, deep down, Jim Harbaugh ain't comin'. (Yes, this is just total defeatism talking now--at best, fatalism. And those losing attitudes are entirely justified.)
October 21st, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^
I used to say the same thing, but it does genuinely seem like the stars could be aligning here. At this point, there is no reason to ignore the possibility.
October 21st, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 1:08 PM ^
I don't see how Stanford would re-hire Harbaugh and retain Shaw. That's more bizarre than people suggesting that Hoke is fired but stays on as DL coach for a new staff.
October 21st, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 2:41 PM ^
I mean, srsly? A head coach at a successful D1 program takes a 2 million dollar pay cut so the guy who left the school can take over again?
Not a chance.
October 21st, 2014 at 9:14 PM ^
Well, not that it's exactly the same situation, but OSU had Luke Fickell take over as HC then agree to be demoted to let Urban Meyer take over as HC. I never thought that would happen either.
October 21st, 2014 at 10:31 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 12:41 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 1:28 PM ^
You're right, there would have to be some significant hatched burying for Harbaugh to come here. Maybe the first thing would be a pledge for our new AD that they aren't going to steer football players into easy majors just to handhold them through school? Isn't that the issue Harbaugh raised about Michigan? If so, that would seem like a win-win--we get a top-flight coach AND he works to raise the academic profile of the team at the same time.
October 21st, 2014 at 2:07 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 3:14 PM ^
I know grudges are a thing, but I sincerely doubt Harbaugh has soured so much that he would never even consider the job. We would have heard that by now if it were true.
And honestly, if Michigan is willing to (finally) make the changes necessary for a guy like Harbaugh to come, wouldn't that be enough to get over a silly past grudge? This isn't high school, guys. Les MIles has as much (if not more) of a reason to hold a grudge, and yet no one seems to talk about that...he would still come here in a heartbeat if Michigan offered him the job, despite never being offered each of the last two times that the job opened up.
October 21st, 2014 at 6:59 PM ^
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