regression...really?

Submitted by clarkiefromcanada on
Hello friends,

Often in reading the posts I get to enjoy the witty and amusing posts of those truly overwhelmed and angry with the current state of football at Michigan. Indeed, THE USE OF CAPS IN POSTS TO DISCUSS ONE"S ANGER WITH THE CURRENT FOOTBALL ISSUES and RICHROD"S INCOMPETENCE and how we should FIRE ROD because THIS TEAM HAS REGRESSED is all too common from the shouters and the trolls. I

While the shouters are annoying I would say that based on the volume of posts I have recently read that I find the subjective concept of regression has become the most bothersome. Let's look briefly at regression as defined:

re·gres·sion  (r-grshn)
n.
1. Reversion; retrogression.
2. Relapse to a less perfect or developed state.
3. Psychology Reversion to an earlier or less mature pattern of feeling or behavior.
4. Medicine A subsidence of the symptoms or process of a disease.
5. Biology The return of a population to an earlier or less complex physical type in successive generations.
6. Statistics The relationship between the mean value of a random variable and the corresponding values of one or more independent variables.
7. Astronomy Retrograde motion of a celestial body.
8. Geology A relative fall in sea level resulting in deposition of terrestrial strata over marine strata.

So it would be 2. "relapse to a less perfect or developed state". So is it regression from the start of the season? Regression from last year? You see constant chatter about how the offense has regressed, the defense has regressed, the coaches should do better etc. but nobody who posts "regression"...like lemmings...backs it up.

Offense

2008 scoring: 20.2 points per game (97th out of 119 teams nationally).

Rushing: 147.6 yards per game (60th).

Passing: 143.2 yards per game (108th)

____________________

2009 scoring: 32.0 points per game (24th)

Rushing: 208.30 (16th)

Passing: 195.70 (89th)

...hmmm...seems like no regression here too much...I'll take a 58.4 percent increase in offensive output along with 41.1 percent increase in rushing and a 36.6 percent increase in passing. If this is regression, then I hope we see offensive regression to the same level year over year (or at least next year). Indeed, when considering the numbers below the offensive improvements almost cover the brutal defensive issues.

Defense

2008 scoring: 28.9 points allowed per game (tied for 89th).

Rushing: 136.9 yards allowed per game (51st).

Passing: 230.0 yards allowed per game (81st).

____________________

2009 scoring: 26.4 points allowed per game (76th)

Rushing: 158.30 yards allowed per game (80th)

Passing: 235 yards allowed per game (83rd)

...here, interestingly, scoring defense is actually improved by a couple points a game (8.7 percent reduction) while rushing is worse by 21.4 yards per game and a 15.6 percent increase (one might consider safety/linebacker play here) and the passing is more or less static at a 2.1 percent increase (despite having more or less one legit corner and walk on safety play).

Big picture what we see is very significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball with interesting scoring defense improvement and real issues with stopping the run and pass on defense. Neither of those issues are new and so it's difficult to consider the team regressing into poor play when the play was *already* poor.

In terms of team implications...well, one hopes Big Will works out in the offseason and improves, that Mike Martin continues to develop. Those seeking linebacker play improvement may be on to something with a position coach change *but* one wonders what linebacker play might look like with a) a second year with GERG and b) competent safeties behind them (here meaning not walkons and no offense to the Kovacs family). Nightly I pray one of the corners works out...I hope the offense simply continues on this arc of production.

Like all of you I am totally frustrated with how this is working out this year; however, I am sick and tired of the naysayers, trolls and newbie idiots posting the exact same material on "regression".

I am going out on a limb believing that we can win one of the next two games; but what is Michigan football without hope (Capital One Bowl 08, for example).

Best wishes to all of you and thanks to Brian for the common sense earlier today.



Comments

BaggyPantsDevil

November 10th, 2009 at 12:52 PM ^

Consider my assertion that the turnover margin is worse because of more experienced atheletes handling the ball retracted. With two freshman handling the ball on virtually every play, turnovers are to be expected.

It's still troubling that the turnover margin this year--with an admittedly improved offense--is worse than last year's which was with the worst offense ever.

jamiemac

November 10th, 2009 at 1:00 PM ^

Frustrating yes, but troublesome? Not if you grant the true frosh QBs are the ones at "fault"

If our QBs have not improved on their TOs next season, then I will co-sign on the troubling semantics next fall.

But, if they improve on the TOs the way the rest of the team has from year one to year two, then, IMHE, this offense will score at least a TD per game more next year than they are now.

BaggyPantsDevil

November 10th, 2009 at 2:19 PM ^

For one thing, Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson surrounded by guys with at least a year of experience should be able to contribute to a more favorable turnover margin than Steven Threet and Nick Sheridan surrounded by mostly freshman and a newly installed offense.

Also troubling is that in the last six games, Michigan's turnover margin has been a staggeringly bad -1.67 in spite of the fact that its opponents in this stretch included the following: an Illinois team that was imploding; a Delaware State team that technically recorded two losses that gameday; a Purdue team with the same awful turnover margin as Michigan; and a team quarterbacked by the usually generous Ricky Stanzi.

Freshman or not, Michigan should have done better on the turnovers.

jamiemac

November 10th, 2009 at 12:39 PM ^

Who are these sophomores you speak of that are TO prone? What returning player from last year is TO prone?

Stonum had one fumble vs MSU, but then made up for it with a big play TD.

Hemingway cant catch a punt, but, IMO, should not be back there over Matthews right now anyway. But, Hemingway has been sure handed during actual offensive plays.

You say we have guys now with the program still TO prone.....who are those guys?

Thanks and I will hang up and listen.

BaggyPantsDevil

November 10th, 2009 at 1:02 PM ^

I'm not pointing fingers at any sophomores--or any of the atheletes--I'm simply pointing out that the turnover problem of last year was considered to be less likely to be duplicated this year since nearly everyone had an extra year of experience.

As it turned out, two guys with that extra year of experience just so happen to be the quarterbacks who've accounted for most of the turnovers.

My point was simply that one of the bad things--turnover margin--about last year's team that one would have thought could not have gotten any worse, did--in fact--get worse.

North Star

November 10th, 2009 at 12:25 PM ^

The stats are helpful, but only tell part of the story - it's hard to boil football down to simple math. Overall, the picture feels pretty mixed on offense, and a step backward on defense.

The offense is clearly better this year based on the stats - M has a decent, but not yet fully effective offense. The running game has been fairly effective, especially w/ Minor, who is our one back that can break a tackle. And, we are no longer leading the free world in negative yardage plays as we did in 2008. As a result, we've been able to sustain some drives. We are still too inconsistent and mistake prone - much of that is driven by having a frosh QB - the fumbles, failure to throw away the ball vs. taking a sack, interceptions and general mis-reads, poor ball fakes, etc. That will get a lot better next year. The other issue has been poor pass protection, which magnifies the freshman-ness of our QBs, and makes it hard to do anything vertical. Some of this is injury driven, but the O line needs significant improvement in pass blocking - there is a nasty streak that is missing IMO - the line too often gets pushed around. Overall, the offense feels good enough to win 8 games and should be further improved next year (assuming our returning RBs step up their game).

The improvements in offense cause me to view the sideways statistical move on defense into a more negative light. Our defense was under massive pressure in 2008 due to DEATH / Threet at QB and general yakety sax. This year, that hasn't been the case - in theory, the stats should improve.

Beyond the stats, this is a defense that is simply bad - bad unlike any we've seen at Michigan. The D cannot cover at all, and has had drastic underperformance at the LB spot - much of the problem is repeated mental mistakes, missed assignments, lack of assignment discipline - much of this feels correctable, but we haven't seen it this year - they've gotten worse as teh season has progressed. I don't care if we have 5 stars or walk ons playing, the disclipline and mental readiness aspect of good defense should be there. Impossible to tell if this is on Greg Robinson or the assistants, but it seems clear there are coaching issues on that side of the ball. We don't have talent to be a championship caliber defense, but we should be middle of the road.

It will be interesting to see what changes RichRod and GERG make this off season - be encouraged if there are 1-2 new hires on the defensive staff.

somewittyname

November 10th, 2009 at 12:55 PM ^

You don't address the fact that in the last two games the D gave up 500 yards to bad offenses with a handful of huge plays. Maybe if you had toned down your ranting a little bit and considered that regression can be on a game to game basis and not simply season to season, you could have presented a more convincing argument. Prove to me the D hasn't regressed in the past 2 games compared to the MSU Iowa part of the season.

cfaller96

November 13th, 2009 at 6:35 PM ^

I just want to put down for the record, for like the 10th time, that clarkiefromcanada was mercilessly abused by me during The Great Shipoopi the coaching search. He had faith, and I didn't and he was right. There is a lesson in here about guys who are patient and keep the faith and guys who lose their shit at the first sign of trouble. Don't be like me, people.

Once again, clarkiefromcanada- thanks for keeping the faith and go blue.