Preview: Penn State
The Essentials
WHAT | Michigan @ #3 Penn State |
---|---|
WHERE | Beaver Stadium, State College PA |
WHEN | 4:30 EST, October 18th, 2008 |
THE LINE | Penn State by 23.5.* |
WHAT? | Seriously. |
SERIOUSLY? | Yeah, man. |
UGH. | You said it. |
TELEVISION | Nationwide on ESPN |
*(NCAA football lines courtesy BetUS sportsbook)
What do you do with a line that's 23.5? If Michigan was favored by 23.5 I'd half ass a preview. I think I'm going to do that when they're un-favored by 23.5, too. There's just not that much to say: in every facet of the game save punting (ZOLTAN WOO!) Penn State has vastly outperformed Michigan. You don't get spreads this high by accident.
Also, I am getting rocked by a cold and mostly want to lie around and snuffle. So this will be shorter than usual. (Update: but still 1100 words.)
Run Offense vs. PSU
It's hard to take Penn State's stats seriously when their out of conference schedule has Coastal Carolina, Temple, and Syracuse on it, but against teams with pulse-like objects:
Team | Rushes | Yards | Avg |
---|---|---|---|
Oregon State | 32 | 92 | 2.9 |
Illinois | 42 | 189 | 4.5 |
Purdue | 33 | 83 | 2.5 |
Wisconsin | 40 | 148 | 3.7 |
Penn State's run defense has taken shotgun blasts in the form of departure, injury, and idiocy and keeps on trucking, as much of a zombie beast as the head coach.
As a spread team with no real quarterback threat and a questionable offensive line, Michigan most closely resembles—dammit—Purdue on this list. Penn State fans seem to be concerned about a couple of their linebackers in the wake of the Sean Lee injury, and if Michigan can catch someone slanting the wrong way or just frickin' block the DTs, there could be room to operate. I kind of doubt it, though, and expect more of the same.
Key Matchup: Sam McGuffie's intestines versus rupturing.
Pass Offense vs. PSU
Toledo faced off against Michigan with the nation's #109 pass efficiency defense and Michigan shredded them for 120 yards on 27 attempts, one touchdown, and three interceptions.
There's nothing to discuss if Threet isn't healthy. This is a disaster zone.
Even if he is, Threet's shining moment in the rain against Notre Dame has been followed by considerable ugliness. He is currently 95th in passer efficiency.
Penn State, meanwhile:
Team | Cmp/Att | Yards | YPA | TD-Int |
---|---|---|---|---|
Oregon State | 25/41 | 250 | 6.1 | 0-2 |
Illinois | 13/24 | 183 | 7.6 | 2-1 |
Purdue | 16/27 | 158 | 5.9 | 0-1 |
Wisconsin | 11/27 | 165 | 6.1 | 0-2 |
Uuuuuuuuugly. For opponents. Which is us in this case. 2-6 INT ratio, one team even in a marginally crappy YPA range, many, many incompletion. Penn State is also 17th in sacks allowed. In a word: likely DEATH.
THIS MATCHUP=TONY FRANKLIN.
Key Matchup: Threet versus elbow bruises and so forth and so on.
Run Defense vs. PSU
This is the one area in which Michigan is respectable… outside of net punting, of course. (WOO! ZOLTAN.) They currently sit 21st nationally, but in the most relevant matchup to date things went only okay:
Team | Rushes | Yards | Avg |
---|---|---|---|
Illinois | 47 | 191 | 4.1 |
That average isn't great but it's not an oblieration, either. Penn State, however, is back to the ways of Robinson, smoking opponents:
Team | Rushes | Yards | Avg |
---|---|---|---|
Oregon State | 38 | 239 | 6.3 |
Illinois | 44 | 241 | 5.5 |
Purdue | 40 | 202 | 5.1 |
Wisconsin | 35 | 106 | 3.0 |
Oregon State was still wobbly early in the year and Illinois has been vulnerable on the ground against teams not named Michigan, so maybe there's some hope in the Wisconsin numbers? Eh… possibly. I expect the defensive tackles to get considerably more action than they did against Toledo, but they're all spread and HD and stuff and can attack outside—attack the linebackers—and we all know how that goes.
The verdict: a mix of stuffs up the middle with linebacker errors and Royster beating iffy tackles and one enormous bust and it looks like the Purdue game minus ten or twenty yards.
Key Matchup: Michigan defenders tackling the slippery Royster.
Pass Defense vs. PSU
Hey, so this blog can't be blamed for giving Darryl Clark a rating of '1' when these facts prevailed:
- Clark was under the tutelage of Jay Paterno.
- He sat behind Anthony Morelli for three years.
So it was a shock when he came out and started housing fools, then continued housing fools, and has pretty much got a Habitat for Ohio State Fans set up by this point. Then Joe Paterno said the reason they hadn't pulled Morelli last year was because JoePa hadn't wanted to give the media the satisfaction of being right about how crappy he was.
Ohhhh. Oh, JoePa is crazy. Okay. Still, fact A is in effect, which makes it freakin amazing that Clark is currently #15 in passer efficiency. In eight years as Penn State's QB coach JayPa has never had an above-average passer.
Now he does, and how. Meanwhile, Michigan's safeties are wearing shirts that say "I'm with touchdown-catching wide receiver". And Penn State has one of those ground games that can suck up safeties like whoah. Expect at least a few guys running open deep and 1-2 touchdown bombs; inbetween Michigan's attempts to contain Clark will stunt the pass rush and Penn State's fleet of little bastard WRs will turn little hitch routes into first downs as Michigan's linebackers whiff the tackles.
Key Matchup: Oh, hell, Brandon Graham getting to the quarterback, I guess.
Special Teams
We're down to #2 in net punting.
Key Matchup: Meh.
Intangibles
Cheap Thrills
Worry if...- Worry is the domain of the raw; worry is to be soothed.
- What's the worst that can happen?
- When they come for you, they will not know your name.
- Joy is only a mask of fear.
- Loathe it, fight it, remain even.
- Interstellar darkness is vast beyond the capabilities of your imagination and cares nothing about your plight.
Fear/Paranoia Level: 0 out of 10. (Fear is the mindkiller. Fear nothing anymore; in your despair you find the freedom only the forsaken can experience.).
Desperate need to win level: 0 out of 10. (Needs lash the soul to the rack of imperfection. You need nothing. You experience all things, and all things experience you.)
Loss will cause me to... accept the nature of things; this wildebeest awaits only the chew.
Win will cause me to... laugh and laugh and laugh and laugh.
The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:
VICTORY!
No… no, not really.
Finally, opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:
- the universe is going to die someday.
- it expands, taking everything away from everything else.
- one day an atom will repulse another atom, and that will be it, the Last Interaction.
- will the final score tomorrow matter then?
- penn state fans think so.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:36 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 1:37 PM ^
Damn, Brian, not only have you captured my mood, but you've written lots of stuff you can use in This Week in Schadenfreude before gameday.
Good job.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:42 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 1:55 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 1:55 PM ^
does anybody else out there think that its likely that we lose by more than 50? joepa has built up 10 years of frustration and I am guessing he wont show any mercy at all.
October 17th, 2008 at 1:59 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 1:55 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 2:03 PM ^
Ugh, I hate myself for predicting it. And yet, as Brian suggests, I feel free now.
UM football SANS emotional attachment? Brilliant!
October 17th, 2008 at 2:04 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 3:37 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 2:04 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 3:38 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 2:10 PM ^
I am sad.
I guess Brian didn't see the clip on Inside Michigan Sports this week when they talked about how Mossman's Chess Team in high school beat the best, most notoriously beat-downish chess team in the country....or how Sheridammit went 2 for 6 off Putnam in High School....but alas, I am still sad.
October 17th, 2008 at 2:16 PM ^
we throw fuck-all to the wind and come out and do a bunch of crazy trick plays? We have absolutely nothing to lose and might it be possible that we throw enough haymakers to win this? Could we see some sort of wild hog formation or even some Feagin? Am I dreaming, delusional, or both?
Anyways, keep up the great work Brian!
October 17th, 2008 at 2:20 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 2:30 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 3:05 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 4:42 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 6:24 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 2:30 PM ^
PSU turns the ball over like 5 times in the 1st half and starts to press.
Michigan is all like "fuck it," plays loose and actually hits some of their plays.
The LB replacing Lee SUUUUCKS.
PSU gets themselves in a large hole that they can't come back from, until...
The refs refuse to allow PSU to lose AGAIN to M, especially 2-4 suckass M. Holding. Holding. Pass INT. Pass INT. Game over.
PSU wins this game, without exception.
October 17th, 2008 at 2:33 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 2:35 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 2:37 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 2:40 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 2:44 PM ^
My paranoid Penn State brain is telling me Brian really thinks Michigan will be competitive, but he's saying all these things so he can take the wind out of the sails of any PSU fans looking forward to gloating on Monday.
Or maybe not. Good lucky, guys.
Mike @ Black Shoe Diaries
October 17th, 2008 at 2:45 PM ^
Anyone remember that game where we were up against a Heisman Winner, an unstoppable offense, and a stiffling defense. We had one of our largest underdog spreads in years...and it was a home game for the other side. The goal was to "make it close" and "give us a shot". There were a lot of annoyed Gators that day - "How could we lose to a team that got beat by App State?!"...tomorrow we can make a whole bunch of people say "How could we lose to a team that got beat by Toledo?!"
The absense of fear creates the opportunity for success.
October 17th, 2008 at 2:46 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 3:19 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 2:55 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 3:27 PM ^
... halftime of this year's Wisconsin game.
C'mon, this is why they play the games on the field, and not in NCAA 2009. Stanford went to USC last year something like 40 pt underdogs, ... and won! Anything can happen in Happy Valley Saturday.
I'll cackle with knowing glee if ...
... RR gets the refs to put 2 seconds back on the clock in the 4th Quarter!
October 17th, 2008 at 4:48 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 3:28 PM ^
38-0 PSU
Actually, I'm not sure how many points PSU will put up, but I'm pretty confident we won't get any, especially if Threet is still hurt. I just hope our players don't get frustrated and start playing dirty (i.e. Carson Butler throwing a punch in the ND game).
October 17th, 2008 at 3:35 PM ^
1)Start team oriented college football blog just before said team plays Vince Young
2)Provide massive word stream in observation and criticism of said team's worst season in 20 years.
3)Have heart ripped out by rival the following year after team fields its best group of players since last national championship.
4)The Horror
5)Watch as your team yakety saxes (a term you yourself coined in an effort to mock a rival) its way through a season in which said team fields perhaps its worst ever group of players.
6)Neglect to see Bob Pollard on his way through a2, which would have provided a modicum of faith in humanity.
October 17th, 2008 at 3:49 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 3:55 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 3:56 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 3:59 PM ^
I know a lot of people won't agree with me, but I endorse the Buckeyes in this year's meeting with the Spartans. Why, you ask? Do you really want Spartan fans to brag about not only how we (probably will have) had a shitty season, but about how they've beaten the Buckeyes and we haven't? I sure as hell don't, not that I really know any Spartans.
Seriously, Little Brother does not have a place at the big boys' table, and that's why I endorse Ohio State this weekend. I understand that many native Michiganders are sympathetic to Little Bro, so that might be one thing
October 17th, 2008 at 4:05 PM ^
NO WAY
NO HOW
NO osu
NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER......
October 17th, 2008 at 4:10 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 4:12 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 4:12 PM ^
At least there won't be any headlines next week about how Michigan was upset by some shoddy MAC or I-AA team.
If your expectations are low enough, you can't possibly be disappointed. My expectations for this game have approached that limit. Though I think UM has at least an outside chance in all of the remaining games, this is a terrible matchup that is probably borderline unwinnable based on team history. See Oregon/Illinois, with a much better defense.
October 17th, 2008 at 4:24 PM ^
Yeah, my gut aches already. Sorry, nothing will ever make me feel even remotely calm about impending doom.
Who was it that said, "Football is not life and death, it's much more important than that!"
October 17th, 2008 at 4:41 PM ^
Holy shit, I just googled it and the dude was talking about soccer!
If soccer is more than life and death, then real football must be like the apocalypse!!
October 17th, 2008 at 4:23 PM ^
Meanwhile, Michigan's safeties are wearing shirts that say "I'm with touchdown-catching wide receiver".
Damn near spit my Diet Squirt all over my keyboard!
October 17th, 2008 at 4:23 PM ^
Is there really no added concern that this is only the second road game, and the first was the Yakity-Sax filled Cripple Fight 08?
I'm kinda surprised, because it's got to be a bit worrying that their first road games are likely to be disasters, and they have almost nothing other than road games left.
October 17th, 2008 at 4:41 PM ^
Brian,
We are in EDT not EST.
October 17th, 2008 at 5:01 PM ^
maybe. But seriously, look to the east on saturday if you want to witness a mushroom cloud.
October 17th, 2008 at 6:02 PM ^
October 17th, 2008 at 6:22 PM ^
October 18th, 2008 at 12:18 AM ^
does one more loss to this season of epic fail equal one the worst loses ever? I submit that it does not.
I do feel that you may have been talking about loses in terms of point differencial. In that way I agree.
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