MGoPodcast 11.6: On the Other Hand Comment Count

Seth October 7th, 2019 at 7:11 AM

THE SPONSORS

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[After THE JUMP: on the one…]

1. The Offense

starts at 1:00

Did that look like the #14 team in the country? Michigan is +4 in turnovers too. Patterson had an O'Korn performance. Terrible INT on a high-low read anybody should be able to make. First throw of the day is nearly intercepted too. Terrible sack he takes—Joel Klatt: "coverage sack"—literally every receiver is open. We're ready for McCaffrey at this point given Patterson's regression. One keeper and everyone says hurrah, and no more from the arc zone game until the 4 minute drill. What were you doing this offseason? Running game is getting nothing now because it's so simplified. Pass pro wasn't bad; Patterson made it look worse.

2. The Defense

starts at 23:54

Dominant performance. Stanley under siege: Michigan was sending their OLBs against Wirfs and Alaric Jackson while Kwity was winning inside. Key drive at the end Alaric Jackson has to tackle Michigan's edge guys. Blitz package was great: Iowa goes five-wide, Michigan consistently got McGrone through. Surprised Stanley didn't fumble when he was Statue of Liberty'ing the ball. Hello Mr. Dwumfour. Four-DE package was killer. Ace: they suckered Iowa into a passing down in the redzone. Stanley's "pre-snap read" to Lavert Hill was thrown too well. Revenge fade to Oliver Martin—Ambry lucky it was uncatchable. Clearly there was supposed to be a safety over the top when Hill got beat. Shout out Khaleke for his run defense.

3. Special Teams/Game Theory

starts at 42:56

If you take a TO to ice the kicker, the HC has to take a Gatorade bath. Running short of the sticks: who thought that was a good idea and why are we doing it? Maybe don't kick pop-ups to one of the kick returners in the conference? Didn't put two guys back on 4th and 20, let the Aussie angle it. Mirror Ferentz showed once, but had a shot in Michigan's territory when Michigan declined the delay of game penalty. Michigan finally got some fluck. Homecoming: we didn't get the traditional band show with Temptation/Hawaiian War Chant.

4. Around the Big Ten wsg Jamie Mac

starts at 1:02:20

Heisman stat padding afternoon for Jon Taylor. Purdue's out literally half their team vs Penn State; Louisville's going to have a better season than Purdue this year. The Journey: Rutgers. Blackshear and Sitkowski both redshirting to preserve eligibility for somewhere other than Rutgers. Tanner Morgan follows up 21/22 with not that. Pat Fitzgerald triple-ices kicker instead of getting another drive.

MUSIC:
  • “The Slow Descent Into Alcoholism”—The New Pornographers
  • “It Hurts Until It Doesn't”—Mothers
  • “Randy Described Eternity”—Built to Spill
  • “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:

I just want to DK Metcalf the offense. That's where we are.

Comments

TheCube

October 7th, 2019 at 7:26 AM ^

Thank god. All the people who keep saying the WRs can’t get separation can shut it for one more week. These guys are wide open every play. A college level qb should be able to throw it as they break their route for a catch. Glad Brian noticed Klatt caping for Sheas putrid play.
 

Secondly, fuck Wisconsin, these sneaky B side Wolverines always take dirty shots at our players and concuss a QB at the worst time. Wouldn’t be that mad if one of our guys take their important player’s knees out next time whenever that is. 

Dr. Funkenstein

October 7th, 2019 at 7:37 AM ^

Everyone’s ready for McCaffrey at this point if he’s able to play this week.... Everyone except Harbaugh though, hopefully he’s just blowing coach smoke to cover for his guy until McCaffrey’s healthy and ready to go... 

BlueHills

October 7th, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^

I’m just curious as to what McCaffrey’s shown this year that makes folks think we’re better off with him as the starter, and that Patterson isn’t as good a QB? Here are some 2019 stats to think about:

McCaffrey: 45.5% completions. QBR 89.

Patterson: 58.3% completions, QBR 131.8.

Source: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/shea-patterson-1.html

The stats speak for themselves. To be honest, Patterson didn’t have a great game on Saturday, but he’s still a more ready quarterback with significantly better stats.

kevin holt

October 7th, 2019 at 1:02 PM ^

The issue with looking at QBR alone is that it only accounts for passing attempts and whether or not they were successful. Several of Shea's issues wouldn't be reflected in his passer rating. E.g.: when Shea throws a short completion when he has someone else wide open downfield, that's a positive event to his QBR; when he takes a bad sack or scrambles when he doesn't need to, his QBR is unaffected because those are considered running plays; most importantly, his inexplicable inability to keep/run the ball has a huge effect on the function of the offense, as does his ability to get the ball out on time or to open guys (plus the hampering of the offense if we have to dumb it down and go half-field reads), and those things don't show up in the QBR.

Shea is a decently accurate thrower; he's just not seeing the field for some reason.

BlueHills

October 7th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^

I wonder if it’s that he’s not seeing the field, or there are other factors we haven’t taken into consideration. Given his recent injury, and the fact that his backup is concussed, I don’t think his reluctance to run the ball is inexplicable. It’s possible that he was told to take it easy with runs unless absolutely necessary.

In any case, I hate to second-guess the coaching staff here. The guy is an accurate passer; he’s a proven winner (isn’t his record 14 Ws and 4 losses as a starter?), yet he’s getting a ton of criticism as a result of a game he led the team to a win in.

I’d say yes, there’s room for improvement everywhere, in fact, the entire offense needs to pick up their game, but McCaffrey isn’t currently available to play, and Milton has potential, but also has thrown more picks than TDs, if memory serves.

After the D’s performance against Iowa, I think Michigan’s at least competitive in every game left, except that Ohio State looks to be in another league altogether in terms of offensive firepower. And not just their QB. The entire offense looks like a machine. They’re very impressive. 

One thing Michigan doesn’t have yet is a game-dominating running back. Whether that’s on the O-line, or the play calling, or the backs, I have no idea. I just think folks are being pretty hard on a college kid who’s actually done pretty darn well.

crg

October 7th, 2019 at 8:06 AM ^

I was also impressed with Stanley's physicality this game - the Rothlesburger comparisons were not far off in that respect.  That - and our blitzing defenders might need to work on bringing guys down a bit faster and not just clinging on to them.

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 8:22 AM ^

Michigan going 8-4/9-3 this year shouldn't be some random shocker to everyone.  Listen, I thought they'd maybe win 11 games if everything broke their way, but 9/10 wins with the bowl game felt not unreasonable.  I know people expected Michigan's offense to look awesome because they changed their OC but it hasn't and probably won't.  At that point, getting mad you were wrong about pre-season expectations isn't a team problem, it's a you problem.

And I'm tired of the "we suck and anything good is actually bad and anyone who tells you to be happy is a slappy" bullshit.  Yes, Iowa isn't a top-10 team.  But you want to know who was the #13 team in the country last week?  Oregon.  UCF was #18.  Boise #16.  Washington #15.  Like, look around and after that top 9-10 it's a whole lotta question marks.  Iowa isn't demonstrably different than any of those teams, and just because Michigan looks a hell of a lot closer to the Hawkeyes than OSU doesn't change that reality.  Maybe Michigan improves a bit this year; already the defense looks like it's made strides.

I really like this site, and I get that not everyone has to agree with my perception of the team.  But it's just so damn relentlessly negative around here right now, and it's infuriating because I already see the same ennui coming out with the basketball team when they inevitably struggle.  It's not that you can't be critical but just, I don't know, it's just tiring.

JFW

October 7th, 2019 at 8:54 AM ^

Amen. I wish I could upvote this times 25.

I had a lot more fun as a student watching Michigan football; and we had 2 8-4 seasons. 

A big reason it was more fun was the lack of concentrated pervasive negativity. 

I remember losing to Minnesota one year and thinking “man, they always seem to get us every few years. Oh well, we can still win the B1G.”

You know what? The offense looked bad. Shea has regressed. But the defense looked amazing and I just want to have fun with a win; and enjoy college football like I used to back in the day. I’ve really cut back on my sports media intake because so much of it is negative. If we can’t find some enjoyment in a win over a ranked team, at homecoming, with a tremendous defensive performance, then it’s sad. 

Criticism is fine. But the rampant blowtorch of cynicism and anger gets to be too much. 

I also wonder about the bias I see sometimes, If a team has a superlative offensive performance and wins a close one because their defense had a shit day, people aren’t nearly as bugged it seems. 

Booted Blue in PA

October 7th, 2019 at 9:18 AM ^

Yup....   Most of the time i get the impression that the majority of the contributors here are 12 to 15 years old.  If they had their way, we'd be on our third head coach since the beginning of the season and would have gone through at least two coordinators on each side of the scrimmage line.

Our #2 QB is out with a concussion but they're calling for him to start, that makes sense.  Don Brown is the worst DC ever, total 'one trick pony'... yet his defense just held the #14 team in the country to 3 points and after 8 sacks, 1 total yard rushing..... Oh yeah, they passed for less than 200 yards and no TD, but they did get a couple crossing route completions (one of which should have been called back for offensive PI but wasn't, that was his fault too).

Seriously, you bring in a new OC (which everyone clamored for for three years) and the offense is struggling while he installs a new system, imagine that.  The offensive line was supposed to be the strength of this offense, they don't look it in run blocking or pass protection for that matter. 

Reading the comments on this blog you'd think we were 0-5 not 4-1.  That one loss was to the #8 team in the country.   

By the way, Washington just fired Gruden..... how long until the Harbaugh to the NFL rumors start up again?   I know, I know..... some will hope that he goes, then again they'd say the same thing about his replacement, after he loses his first game.

Onward, Go Blue!

 

Ecky Pting

October 7th, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^

Rickey Foggie! Darrell Thompson! Chip Lohmiller! Names that are burned into my memory. Foggie - an option QB - was recruited to the Gophers by Lou Holtz, who left for ND the year before. It was M's only regular season loss that season (M was #2 at the time), but the very next week was when Harbaugh guaranteed the win over the Buckeyes ... and delivered. M screwed the pooch in Rose Bowl, though, losing to ASU under John Cooper. The silver lining there was that the ASU win was persuasive enough for OSU to hire Cooper, which worked out well in the long run, as Cooper then went 2-10-1 versus M.

outsidethebox

October 7th, 2019 at 9:06 AM ^

Having played, coached and officiated as much as I have I don't consider myself to be "Just another fan"...however, sometimes I am. Here, what sets me off is whether or not a player or team is approaching their potential...and I am going to be very uncomplimentary if the effort or execution is unsatisfactory. Five games into this season, with an entire previous season under his belt, Shea Patterson's play is much worse than "worrisome". His play declares than the next man up deserves more than a cursory shot at taking over the position. I fully understand the difficulty of assessing QB play relative to practice performance. But the acceptability of in-game performance has reached a point where reality is quite well defined. This coaching quandary is nothing new or bizarre...in fact, it is an intrical part of the coaching deal. "You" can legitimately note that "But you are not there and..." but the fact remains that it is unfair to McCaffrey, Milton and even McNamara when the facts are just as clear that this coaching staff does not, in fact, know if one of those three would elevate this team to much more effective play. Here, those complaining about the complainers have no leg to stand on...and it is truly unfair and unjust to the team and individual players to not make a serious inquiry in this regard.

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^

I am fairly certain that mcCaffrey, Milton, and McNamara have been given opportunities to bet out Patterson and they haven't.  And we've seen enough of McCaffrey these two seasons to recognize that he's just not there yet as a passer, and he's probably not physically robust enough to be a run-first QB.  Milton has looked...fine against everyone's third-team defense in blowouts; throwing him in against a first-team defense will just get him killed.  True freshman QBs suck as a rule.

I remember when Wilton Speight was the QB in 2017 and everyone CLAMORED for O'Korn to take over.  Then he did, he looked worse that Speight, and everyone CLAMORED for Peters.  He looked...fine, then got hurt and never got close to the field again.  I'm glad you have this wealth of knowledge about football, but claiming there's a better option out there with nothing even approximating evidence is just feelingsball.

Also, saying Patterson has a season under his belt with this offensive system isn't correct; he's got the same 6 games everyone else has.  The same 6 games that led to an offensive line that can't run block effectively, struggles against pass rushes, and WRs and RBs who drop balls, run bad routes, and miss holes.  It's a holistic issue offensively, and singling out Patterson feels reactionary.

unWavering

October 7th, 2019 at 9:09 AM ^

Right there with you.  I'm very close to just not coming back here anymore.  Yes, I get that there are things to criticize about the team.  But Brian is just so fucking whiny all the time about it.  A lot of the front page content is still good, but the boards are pure shit and I think a lot of that is Brian's fault.  He's unintentionally created an echo chamber of negativity and it's making this place toxic as hell.

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^

I don't know if Brian is needlessly whiny, but a lot of people sort of take on his affect, which is why as soon as BPONE became a thing every guy with "GoBlue" in his twitter handle started referencing it as soon as literally anything goes wrong on the field.  

It's clear at this point that Brian wants Harbaugh gone, or at the very least some massive overhaul.  He made a reference a couple of weeks ago that maybe Harbaugh is slowing down mentally, insinuating that it had something to do with the hits he got whiling playing.  It was a dumb statement and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that it wasn't his intent, but I'm not surprised the unrelenting anger and distaste about this season has taken over.  Again, the writers here are great and I've lived through enough permutations of this "woe is me" mentality around here to leave, but I've seen this story play out before and it's fucking annoying.

dragonchild

October 7th, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^

I really like this site, and I get that not everyone has to agree with my perception of the team.  But it's just so damn relentlessly negative around here right now

MGoBlog has very consistently maintained that they are not smarter than the coaches.  They digest football at a higher level than most outlets, but they consider themselves fans who are nerds for football, not qualified beyond that.

Where I'm going with this is that Brian once said, "I expect the coaches to be smarter than me."  Meaning, there are certain levels of mistakes and dysfunction that are unacceptable because they are so obvious, "you're not an expert" be damned.  If a surgeon operating on a patient misses with a scalpel and blood starts flying everywhere, you're not a doctor but you still know someone dun goofed.  If a space shuttle that had been working fine for years goes up and explodes, you're not a rocket engineer but you still know someone dun goofed.  If a bridge less than a year old collapses, you're not a civil engineer but you still know someone dun goofed.  And when Nico Collins is open by ten frickin' yards and the QB can't see him, you're not a football coach but you'd damn well better be able to tell that someone done goofed!

MGoBlog has always been just as quick to celebrate competence and, to that point, the defense section was very upbeat this time.  The offense, which is traditionally reviewed first on the postgame podcasts, is in such a deplorable state that it's obvious even to casual fans that the experienced squad is playing way below its potential, and that's depressing to see.  It's an egregious waste of talent.  Given MGoBlog's modus operandi, it would be inexplicably disingenuous if they started waving tiny flags just because some fans preferred emotional balance over the honest looks they've always given.

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^

But my point is that even in the best of times guys make mistakes.  MGoBlog's mantra isn't that they think they're smarter than the coaches but one of its core competencies is to assume that human failure isn't possible.  It's the constantly repeated notion that "50/50 balls" aren't really toss-ups when Nico Collins is in the vicinity, despite the fact that a 50/50 ball they threw last weekend was picked off and the deep ball this game could very well have been picked off as well.  It ignores the reality that most secondaries are smaller than the WRs they play against (Michigan's corners are all generously listed around 5'11"/6'0"), and yet they find ways to stop those fades and 50/50 balls because they're really hard to consistently complete.  Safeties come flying out of nowhere, the mind messes with your throws, etc.  And again, I wasn't at the game, so maybe guys were much more open consistently than I saw, but a lot of times when the WR cam came up what I saw were receivers with safeties and corners nearby, making it hard to tell just how "open" a guy is.  And "oh look at this guy downfield 40 yards who is wide open" when Patterson is being chased out of the pocket on the other side of the play doesn't mean he's "open" in any meaningful way.  Again, I don't have an all-22 view of the field, so maybe he really did miss a ton of guys downfield.

I don't know if Michigan is playing below its potential. It's a new offensive system with, clearly, a major learning curve.  The team has struggled holistically, though as I said elsewhere I think they're closer than people think.  And I don't think the coaches don't see that.  I'm sure they're working really hard to make them better.  But you're still trying to get college students to download a bunch of stuff and execute it properly.  Iowa came in with a top-30 offense and scored 3 points; we all cheer a great defensive effort.  Michigan scores 10 points against a top-25 defense and it's "burn everything to the ground, Michigan should have scored 100".  This isn't some emotional balance I'm looking forward; it's just accepting that things can happen and they aren't part of some massive bout of lunacy by a team.

JFW

October 7th, 2019 at 11:29 AM ^

I also think that they are self-admitted spread zealots; so if its not a spread and/or it isn't an Oregon/Oklahoma machine they aren't going to be thrilled. 

I miss the offense from the first two years.

And man, I do wonder what this offense looks like if we don't change; and we have Patterson playing at the level he did last year, maybe a bit better, with Mason lead blocking for Charbonnet. 

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^

I mean, I support Michigan moving forward with it's offensive philosophy, and I do think the cost of this transition is higher than I expected.  But yeah, the offense last year wasn't fundamentally broken and I do sorta wonder how it would look this year with another year of experience under it's belt.  That said, they did make the change and I want them to accept the costs of the transition and roll with it; the clamoring for them to go back to last year's offense/some other one feels foolish.  Michigan's recent history had been marked by an inability to be patient.  

JFW

October 7th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^

Oh I 100% agree with that. 

If anything, I want UM to get an identity on offense (we have one on defense since Brown came) and stick with it and perfect it. 

I wish they hadn't changed. But they did, so lets become the best damned spread team we can be, and develop that identity over years. 

MGoFoam

October 7th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^

I disagree with your premise. You are espousing our society's "blame culture." As a surgeon, I can assure you that the fact something is bleeding during surgery does not mean there was an error. It happens. Things tear. You fix it. Likewise, as a non-expert, you don't know enough to know why the rocket exploded or why the bridge fell or why the QB didn't see the open receiver. You can sit on your couch specifically watching that one receiver on the slow motion replay and say, "he was open," but you don't know what four other things the QB was responsible for seeing in that same 3 seconds.

Yes, in addition to the physical skills, the QB needs to have the mental ability to process that all that information rapidly, but it's more complex than just, "he shoulda seen that guy."

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 3:00 PM ^

i'd counter that the far bigger problem isn't acceptance of mediocrity as it is this notion there's a quick fix out there.  Rich Rod shows up, gets progressively better but not quick enough, so they bring in Hoke.  Hoke pulls a bunch of rabbits out of his ass for a year and, despite not really being anything close to innovative or "good", gets a couple more years.  Then Harbaugh shows up, they struggle to dig out of a bad spot left behind by Hoke, and suddenly consistent 10-3 seasons (something Michigan struggled to do for decades) is unacceptable.  What people fail to understand is OSU became this dominant because they stuck with something and didn't deviate.  You don't just jump a 15-year head start with a single hire.  

If you think screaming about how unacceptable a team is shows an unwillingness to accept mediocrity that's your call, but I don't think it shows anything other than being angry things aren't going your way.

ak47

October 7th, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^

That is most coaches though. People are so warped by the one or two elite coaches they ignore the other 95%. Harbaugh is still, even with this year, an above average college football coach. Michigan should want to be better than slightly above average as a coach but the majority of college coaches aren't better.

maize-blue

October 7th, 2019 at 8:43 AM ^

Patterson is O'Korn.

Also, I think Harbaugh is crippled with risk aversion and believe he hammers this into his QB's, probably to the point where they are afraid to do anything.

WFNY_DP

October 7th, 2019 at 8:59 AM ^

I was realy disappointed that the offensive breakdown didn't highlight the DPJ jet-sweep that looked like it was designed to be a WR pass in which he just ate a nine-yard loss instead of chucking it out of bounds.