Basketbullets: 2018-19 Michigan State, Part Two
3/9/2019 – Michigan 63, Michigan State 75 – 26-5, 15-5 Big Ten
On the one hand: it was a five point swing against the team I like to see win basketball games. On the other: it was so ludicrous that it immediately crushed all hope, and that turned out to be the right emotional state. I of course refer to the 15 seconds during which Zavier Simpson missed an uncontested layup and Cassius Winston subsequently banked in a three. These are not the events that need to happen if you're going to win on the road against a top 10 team.
There were many problems. Some with Michigan, some with the way the game was officiated, some with the ensuing lineups after the way the game was officiated. But also aaaargh, randomness.
Anyway:
I repeat: a dude. The #1 reason Michigan's offense bogged down was Michigan State's ability to switch screens. The guy who gave them that ability: Xavier Tillman. Tillman had 5 blocks in this game; his performance was reminiscent of Michigan going up against Isaiah Roby last year.
Both Roby and Tillman were able to mirror and contest Michigan shots on supposed mismatches, sending Michigan into a bog of uncertainty and recriminations as the "be aggressive on switches" option backfired. Via Orion Sang, DeAndre Haynes on Tillman's impact:
“I mean, he was really good," said assistant coach DeAndre Haynes. "He impacted a lot of our shots. Every time we drove to the basket, he was blocking one of our guards’ shots. It was tough.
"We tried to change some things up with him, but he’s really quick off his feet. He uses his body well, and he was able to get his hands on a lot of balls that usually we make in games. Our guards really work on the layups we have. He was a better player today. He was an impact today, couldn’t do nothing with him.”
Michigan was horribly inefficient when they drove that supposed mismatch.
**By my count, Michigan scored 24 points on the 29 possess. (0.83 PPP) Michigan State switched with its '5' man. Xavier Tillman's ability to effectively switch unlocked this gameplan for MSU. His defense was *superb,* stifling Michigan guards all night: pic.twitter.com/9hc1AYGkNE
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) March 11, 2019
Nick Ward going out was the best thing that could have happened for MSU in these two games.
This is the primary subject of a new Solving Basketball podcast that I haven't had the time to listen to yet but I guarantee is very good.
NEW pod! @HalfCourtHoops is back for another game breakdown, this time on Michigan-Michigan State. The x's and o's and coaching adjustments that went into Saturday's game. Plus what the NBA does to attack switches
— Jordan Sperber (@hoopvision68) March 11, 2019
iTunes: https://t.co/YMnAu3ZwjF
YouTube: https://t.co/MHmVWcFbyj
Dumping it down. Michigan again struggled tremendously to take advantage of the other portion of that switch. Teske got the ball once, IIRC, and was called for a dubious travel. Extremely frustrating. Understandable, maybe, as Michigan is a team that absolutely never posts and you can't go from "we never do this" to "we are very good at this" in two weeks. But holy hell, frustrating.
I wonder if this will be an offseason focus for Michigan. It probably should be. Tillman's coming back.
[After THE JUMP: gnome autoviolence]
Are you allowed to contest vertically? At Iowa: no. At Maryland: yes. At Michigan State: lol why even ask. Dan Dakich repeatedly pointed out Izzo wheedling the refs early in the game and that paid off with a large number of Winston drives to the hoop on which Michigan was in good position and vertical only for Winston to get a call because he contacted a Michigan player's chest. That was supposed to be excised from the game, and sometimes it is. Sometimes it isn't.
So, in an event similar to Tyler Cook getting a foul call on Teske halfway through the first half against Iowa, Michigan suffered a foul it couldn't cope with when Brazdeikis took contact from Winston halfway through the first half and got called for his second. I guess it's tough sometimes because the offensive player gets into the defensive player's space and the arms come down as a result of that but the difference in the way this stuff gets called home and away is striking.
People complain when you complain but a 28-7 FT disparity (two FTs were late intentional ones) when Michigan entered the game with one of the lowest FTA rates allowed nationally, with many of those FTs questionable to inexplicable, massively impacts the game. For all the bitching about Michigan's second half offense they finished this game in a point range (0.95 PPP) that they can and have won games with this year.
While I'm on the subject. What?
I think that dethrones the Iggy held-ball-type-substance against Maryland for worst call of the year.
Oblig autobench. There is a valid reason you might autobench a player: if that guy is going to play like crap on defense because he's afraid of a foul. This does happen, you should pull him if his replacement is decent. That is emphatically not the case for this Michigan team without Charles Matthews.
Yes, Brazdeikis did foul out in 22 minutes. But benching him didn't increase that number. It just moved those minutes later in the game.
Michigan did get some good production from Weird Guys: Brooks had a couple of steals and had 5 points on 4 shot equivalents; DDJ had a couple of assists and wasn't overwhelmed on defense. Brandon Johns playing a position he hadn't really played all year, well…
three consecutive MSU buckets, two of them real real bad
…suboptimal. He got 13 minutes. Iggy fouled out; Livers was limited to 27 minutes despite finishing the game with two fouls. This isn't changing. Beilein's going to do it. I'm going to complain about it.
Evolving on switches. If an opponent has a center that can stay in front of Simpson I don't know if the switching situation is going to get any better. Simpson isn't a threat to shoot over Cs so they can sag, taking away both drives and passing lanes. Moving that action to Poole is a potential solution but the team's offense has revolved around Simpson at its best moments this year. Poole's only had the occasional flash as a creator. I'm doubtful that would end up being a major improvement.
Probably have to try it at some point, though. The other possibility might be a weird one: Livers, who must be checked at the three point line and might have the size to get the ball into the post against a 6'8" guy. Or Iggy, I guess, but Iggy is a black hole.
There is probably not a solution. Switches put you in iso situations.
That being said… Michigan really lacks consistent one-on-one playmaking – someone that can just go downhill and get a bucket. @hoopvision68 mentioned it on his pod today, but Michigan is in the 30th percentile in isolation offense, shooting 32.6% (37% eFG) in those situations.
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) March 11, 2019
Teams that have mobile, switchable centers will be a tough matchup for the rest of the year, however long that is.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
That's a foul on Simpson, Brian. Watch Loyer's off hand. Simpson tugs at it, causing Loyer to lose his balance and trip. It's really subtle -- X is good at this kind of thing -- but it's there. If the players were reversed, and it didn't get called, we'd be incensed.
As far as the autobench goes -- the horse is dead. There was a diary this week that explains the mathematics behind it. Besides, even if all they did was move Iggy's minutes later into the game, later minutes are more valuable, so that's a win in and of itself. Michigan didn't lose this game due to auto benching. How do I know this? MSU sat Winston after his second foul too.
Finally, on post entries -- you have to give some credit to MSU on that. They were doing a fantastic job of contesting the passing lanes. It's not that Michigan didn't want to get it to Teske -- you could see several players trying to do exactly that. It's that they judged that a turnover was likely to result.
Here's hoping Nick Ward is healthy by Sunday. :) I definitely agree that MSU is a better team without Ole Broken Ankles on the floor. Go Blue!
March 11th, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
You can literally slow down every single play of the game and find a foul somewhere. 30-7 free throw advantage says it all stop effing defending it.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
I didn't say the officiating was good. It wasn't. I said that call was correct. It was.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
You're delusional.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
Wow. You're right. I simply did not see that before, despite looking at it from a few angles. That is a foul.
Old98. Watch Loyer's left arm. Simpson tugs him down. It may the reason you don't see Simpson protest much.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
It's not a foul in the context of what MSU was able to get away with compared to UM. It's like in football where you can call holding on every play if you want to. No difference in hoops. Simpson puts his hands on guys all the time. He does it every time down the court. To call that little touch a foul and not everything else is where the issue is. 30-7 FT disparity. Arguing this is stupid.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
I think the refs favored MSU.
Right now I am talking about this particular call. It looks as though Simpson does not think there is a ref with an angle on the play. It is a clear "must call" foul.
... and Winston doesn't arm-bar every damn time a defender gets close to him? Every fucking drive by him was proceeded by him pushing off the defender. The refs called it ONCE.
Fully agree, you aren't exaggerating, every drive has his pushing off and then hooking his defender and the cherry on top is that about 90% of his drives also include flailing his head and shoulders back as if he was hit by a sniper. He must've learned that from Jalen Brunson. Both of their games' remind me of the worst aspects of high level soccer, the associated gamesmanship/theatrics.
I find it quite annoying that every time Michigan basketball or football lose a big game half this blog puts 100% of the blame on the officials. MSU was the better team in both contests and that’s really all that needs to be said. Go ahead and keep blaming the officials, it’s easier than accepting the fact that Michigan was overrated for much of this season.
If you think a 30-7 free throw disparity didn't have an enormous effect on the game you are just plain dumb. Not only did it affect how UM could play defense it affected their rotations in the game. Eli Brooks averages 2 minutes a game this year, on Saturday he played 20. Brandon Johns and Colin Castleton each played over 10. But that had no affect on the game according to you, MSU was just better. Gee I wonder why. Get fucking real.
Curiously it was 33 to 10 in Michigan's favor in Breslin last year and not a single soul on this board bitched about it. S*** happens you overcome it or you don't the end
You have your games confused. Attached is the box score from the game last year at Breslin. Played on January 13, 2018.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/matchup?gameId=400986504
Says that Michigan committed 25 fouls and MSU committed 26 fouls.
Michigan was 28-35 from the FT line. MSU was 27-32 from the FT line. Basically even. And Michigan won 82-72 at Breslin.
NOW, in the Big 10 tournament, the game you are referring to, played on a neutral court, Michigan was whistled 13 times to MSU's 23. MSU committed 10 fouls in the final 3:49 of the game because they were trailing. With the score 62-54, and 2:32 to play, they began hacking -- picking up 9 of those 10 fouls -- and Michigan made them pay at the line. In the final 2:32, Michigan hit 14 out of 17 free throws to seal the game as MSU was forced to foul and hope Michigan missed.
And like you referenced above, yes, the difference in FT attempts was 33 to 10 for the total game. But 17 of Michigan's attempts came on deliberate fouls by MSU after the game was decided. The entire 10 foul differential can be explained by MSU's hack-a-thon at the end of the game.
You can look for yourself: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=401020040
The game was basically evenly called until MSU went into desperation mode. Again, important to reference the least fouls per game metric, where this year Michigan is #5 in least number of fouls, and MSU is #118. In 2017-2018, the foul differential between the two teams was even greater with Michigan at #26 (least number of fouls per game) and MSU at #188. www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/personal-fouls-per-game?date=2018-04-03). Statistically speaking, MSU should be incurring more fouls than Michigan.
Yeah, but what's so important about context, right? Let's just leave it out. No big whoop. I posted this in post-game thread when you cited the 33-10 difference there too. At least in this post, you don't call Michigan fans "whiners" for pointing out something that had a major impact on the game.
Good post. I also recall MSU being in the double bonus extremely early in the game at Breslin last year and many of UM's FT's were attempted at the end of the game too just like in NYC.
You deserve ten upvotes for bringing an arsenal of facts to this discussion!
you've got some nerve actually looking shit up!
Nice troll job.
March 11th, 2019 at 11:57 PM ^
You're the one arguing.
J let me help you if you’d like I can promise you this is true. By the time X was whistled for that foul he had not touched LOYER. #fact
Go to 5:40 in the youtube clip. You're wrong.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:51 PM ^
Exactly. There is no "tug." Simpson's hand does make contact with the guard's hand but the player is already off balance and falling. Besides, did you slo-mo all the non-calls on MSU when Michigan drove and also when Teske was being "guarded" by players much shorter than them? And the ref who made that call couldn't see Simpson's hand anyway.
Simpson closed his hand on Loyer's wrist, and Loyer fell backward toward Simpson. You can say it's not a foul if you want, but if a ref sees those two things he's going to call it every time. This call is the wrong hill to die on when there are plenty of shit calls in this game to get worked up about:
- the Teske "travel" that should have been an and-1 and a critical fourth (I think) foul on Winston.
- Iggy's fourth foul when he was trying to rebound a shot that he missed because he was fouled while shooting.
- The pile of shooting "fouls" that Winston drew, especially the one that Teske supposedly committed when there was no actual contact.
Arguing that this call was the worst of the game makes us look bad. It had way less impact than the other calls, and it wasn't a bad call.
Who is arguing? For the last time and you can go and rewatch it a million times. By the time the whistle blew, LOYER not only was not fouled it would’ve been a travel had not that BS whistle been blown the contact happened after the side referee blew the whistle. There’s no arguing that.
I just watched it several times. The whistle blew when Loyer's butt hit the ground. He hit the ground after Simpson pulled on his arm. You can't complain about a lack of traveling if the traveling happened because Simpson pulled him down. Unfortunately the youtube clip that Brian posted starts right after the replay that shows the arm getting pulled, but I don't see how you can watch that replay (at 5:40 in the clip) and not see Simpson pulling on Loyer's arm. Watching it live I was initially furious, but as soon as I saw that replay, it was obvious. Just because Brian and Dakich didn't see it doesn't mean it wasn't the right call. And I didn't see Simpson complaining about the call, either.
Again, it was a shittily-officiated game, and MSU did similar things (the hook and hold that pulled Livers to the ground, uncalled comes to mind). Still, the side official got this call right. I just wish that the officials had called the game evenly.
You're right. It wasn't just a bad call, it was a terrible call.
Guess 98's stupid belligerence found an appreciative audience. He carefully anatomizes a specific play and says the call was correct. You insist that he's defending the officiating game-long and ten weenies pour love juice on it. Lemmings are like that. Why we have juries and not lynch mobs.
The disparity was enormous. A number of the calls looked like they sucked. The OP's analysis suggests this might not have been one of them. Whaddya say we eat him?
March 11th, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^
The broadcast had another angle on the replay that more clearly showed X briefly grabbing Loyer's hand than the clip above but Loyer fell down of his own accord. X would have had to grab *and* pull and by the time X is moving his arm away he had clearly let go.
I agree with you enough to say it's not the worst call suffered this season but it was still a bad call.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:54 PM ^
I didn't see the tug until just watching the replay and I agree that it happens there, but I also think (1) like 90% sure the ref that calls the foul can't see their hands because Loyer's body blocks them from view, so he's still calling it based on an assumption; no way they call that at Crisler; (2) Loyer is falling over already and there's no way a tug on his hand or wrist from the side would pull him backwards; (3) the entire game, and I mean the whole time, MSU was arm-barring, holding, grabbing, tackling in the paint on defense and we got nothin. So if you're gonna call that BS that's fine, but why the one-sidedness?
All that being said, I do agree that there's a tug there, and that makes it much less of a bad call. But that just moves it from "worst call of the year" to "still pretty horrific call especially in the context of this game and how it was officiated otherwise."
Second point: I strongly disagree that the autobench worked out because Winston was off the floor too. That's the very best time to put the foot on the gas. Let's say Iggy is guaranteed to foul out in the exact same number of minutes as he did, but you can choose when to put him in. Your options are (1) when Winston is on the bench and (2) when Winston is back. If you choose option 2, we probably ride out the rest of the first half with a lead, like we did in the actual game. If you choose option 1 though, I feel like we go up by even more. We were up something like 10 or 12 at that point and autobenching is saying "let's play it safe" --- which gives them a shot to get back in it.
Also, I think you get a much better upside by playing your best guys when Winston is benched: if you go up by more, Izzo probably puts him back in and risks fouling him out. You can drive on him and he will be more cautious. And if you push the lead up, it's gonna be much harder for him to engineer a comeback in the second. If we go into halftime up by 15, do you think they win that game?
Co-sign your autobench analysis with the one caveat that no way the refs give Winston another foul before the half if he did come back in. He pretty much would've had to punch someone in the face.
My point was -- MSU autobenched Winston -- despite being down by 10-12 points -- and won the game because he was available later. If he'd picked up his third foul in the first half, Michigan might very well win.
You can't blame auto bench for winning or losing when both teams do it the same way.
Your logic is flawed. Autobenching doesn't have to work badly 100 percent of the time to be a bad idea. It also doesn't have to be a bad idea for all teams to be a bad idea for yours. The fact that MSU arguably got away with it -- although, notably, Winston played 32 minutes while Iggy played 22 -- doesn't mean that it didn't hurt Michigan more, especially given the goofy lineup they trotted out for several minutes in the first half.
good heavens, if simpson "tugging at loyer's off hand, causing him to lose his balance and trip" is your justification, i'm totally fine with calling it a shitty foul, particularly in the context of the rest of the game.
and there's no damn way i'd be incensed if the roles were reversed. it's a bad call.
If Winston had done it to Simpson, and not gotten called, it would have been Exhibit #1 in the referee bias thread.
There were plenty of bad calls in this game -- two or three on Iggy, Castleton's second, and at least one on Teske. There were plenty of bad no-calls in this game -- see, Michigan driving to the basket, getting mugged, and not getting a call. There are plenty of other examples to clip. This isn't one of them. This was X trying to be sneaky and make a play, and it cost his team.
I agree on the Simpson call. When they showed the replay and he clearly gave a little tug, my anger shifted away from the refs and to Simpson. I think Loyer was already on his way down and the tug was very minor such that the call was ticky tack, but I was like c'mon Z, why even do that and give the refs an excuse to call it?
Far worse were the calls you mentioned.
I saw the tug on the hand, but there is no way it was enough to knock a person down, even if that person was the size of a garden gnome like Loyer. Either 1) he was already falling down; 2) he is the weakest player in college basketball; or 3) he embellished to draw the call. It could be some combination of the three, but you don't make that call and let MSU play the way they did all game.
angry...at simpson? really? sheesh.
Do think Winston sits that whole time if the lead goes up 6 instead of down 6? Autobenching isn't the real issue, automatic, rigid autobenching is the problem. How different does the game look in the second half if Michigan builds the lead to 15-18 (or more once Winston went out)? Instead, Michigan backed off and let MSU get back in the game, grab momentum at half time, and attack in the second half. And don't even start on autobenching Iggy and Livers at the same time.
Second-half minutes might generally be more valuable than first-half minutes, but you have to have a feel for when go for the kill and when to tread water. Saturday felt like a kill moment.
I'm right there with you on autobenching multiple starters at the same time. I tuned in around the 5 minute mark in the first half. Our lineup was Z, Teske, DDJ, Brooks, and Johns. The lead promptly went from 12 to 6 (even with Winston on the bench), a huge momentum change right before half.
Every team has to steal minutes with inexperienced/inefficient backups. And I understand the basis behind autobenching, but when you have as tight a rotation as Michigan does, you cannot afford to put in a lineup that consists mostly of known problem spots. Especially on the road against a Top 10 team with a banner on the line. How different might the halftime situation looked if any one of Poole, Iggy, or Livers was on the floor?
No, but do you think Michigan also stays with the autobench if they had given up the lead? Michigan initially extended the lead with Livers and Brazdeikis on the bench and got it up to 12 when it was 35-23. And Winston was out.
There was as much reason to think they'd continue to extend it as there was to think that MSU would go on a 6-0 run to finish the half at that point. Hindsight is 20/20. Made a calculated decision and it didn't work out and there is no guarantee it would have worked out better with more of the starters in there, although it probably would have because Johns was woooooof. Real bad.
Regardless, Michigan had a six point halftime lead and no one with three fouls. While it would have been nice to have a bigger lead, 1) there is no guarantee they would have if they played starters with two fouls and 2) they lost the game by giving up a 20-2 run in the second half.
There is another angle and my reaction was the same as yours - I thought he pulled. I also don't think he complained at all, which made me think he knew it.
I dunno, I agree you want your best players at the end of the game but Iggy was on fire, playing confidently at that point. You leave him in and risk the fouls and maybe he doubles his point total and gives us a huge boost. Putting him back in late when there is no momentum and he has been cooling off on the bench for awhile does not help us in this situation. Hindsight 20/20 of course.
March 12th, 2019 at 11:35 AM ^
Logged in to say that later minutes are not more valuable. An observer has more information about the state of the game and likely endings, so things may feel more important (bc we know we’ll lose if this shot misses), it they aren’t. Points are points, etc. You might worry about teams having time to respond to events earlier in the game, but it’s not clear why we should think the response doesn’t hurt the other team (like when UNC panicked and crashed against us earlier this year). If there is a case for valuing those minutes more highly, it’s not made in that diary.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
Was it just me or did Michigan have some terrible pick-and-roll defense in this game? I recall a 3 possession sequence in the second half that resulted in (I think):
1. Winston blow by Teske on a switch for a layup.
2. Winston 3-pt after both Teske and Simpson couldn't decide who was sticking with Winston.
3. An easy dump to an open Tillman after both Teske and Simpson were indecisive, again.
For as good as the team has been defensively this season, that was not a good sight to see heading in to the BTT and NCAAT.
Edit: This wasn't part of the sequence above but was emblematic of problem, from the game highlights.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
Not just you see my post below. Beilein and Yaklich got owned. Again. With 5 days to prepare.
Michigan's pick and roll defense was quite good for most of the game. This sequence you reference was bad though and it effectively ended the game.
It was largely on Teske, too. I thought Teske had his worst game of the season. Airballing threes (multiple!), not even able to contest some Winston layups. I made a comment halfway through the second half that he seemed sick or something.
He had one defensive rebound. ONE! In a game in which MSU had 11 OREBs our center had one defensive rebound.
I don't know if the atrocious reffing made him shy about defending Winston after he had been called for at least one phantom foul on a Winston drive or if he was tired or what but he needed to prevent that layup by Winston like Tillman against Michigan guards. He looked a step slow and (a couple feet short on threes) for the entire second half.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
Beilein decided to hedge and recover every ball screen in the 2nd half on defense (just like he did in the first game) and got thoroughly destroyed (again). It was a layup line to basket. Why he stopped switching everything like he did in the first half will be this season's biggest mystery. Couple that with the ref show and the pathetic effort rebounding the ball and another offensive lull and we blew a great shot at a title. Beilein better deliver in the tournament because this has not been his best year x and o's wise at all. It's not that damn hard to throw the ball into the post on switches. The idea we "never do it" so it makes it ok is wrong. It's like saying it's ok Michigan's football offense doesn't have a functional two minute drill because they never do it so ho hum. Beilein was badly outcoached by Izzo twice. Also, the guy needs to drop the nice guy act and start getting into the officials like Izzo. You know why Izzo acts like he does on the sideline? Because it works. But hey, guess we're the ones who are "defeated with dignity" because our coach is too virtuous to get up the ass of these horrible refs.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
Beilein is not an "in game adjustment guy", at least he never has been at Michigan. He's a great teacher of the game, and teacher of his system. The bottom line with him is that you're going to get what you get, and more often than not, it's good enough for a win. However, as far as in game adjustments go, it's not one of his strong suits
March 11th, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
The guy had 5 days to prepare and the previous game's worth of film to figure out MSU's swithces on defense and pick and rolls on offense and was lost. Absolutely lost. It has nothing to do with being an "in game" this or that. Also, you don't get to call someone the best coach in the country if they can't make in game adjustments, which Beilein has done in the past. Your post makes absolutely zero sense.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^
Who said he was the best coach in the country? Certainly not me. I think he is a very good coach, but their are several things he does that I don't agree with. My point is this, much like our football coaching staff, Beilein is very set in his gameplan. We either "execute" well and win, or we dont' and lose. He does not change his gameplan based on the opponent's tendencies.
March 11th, 2019 at 12:53 PM ^
Coach has adjusted plenty of times in-game. This year and all years.
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