538 Analysis of Playcalling Sequences - Don't Run on 1st Down
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/
Interesting analysis. Some stats from the article
- Rush-rush-pass was the least successful play sequence
- Pass-rush-rush was the most successful play sequence
January 12th, 2019 at 2:17 AM ^
The forward pass was a mistake
January 12th, 2019 at 2:29 AM ^
Only three things can happen when you throw a pass, and two of them are bad...Woody Hayes?
January 12th, 2019 at 10:17 AM ^
Football has evolved since Woody Hayes made that statement. Now, 5 things can happen and 4 of them are bad (sack, inc, int, holding penalty.)
January 12th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
I think defensive pass interference/holding gets called enough we can say 6 things and 4 are bad
January 12th, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^
Don’t forget QB fumbling.
January 12th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
And targeting!
January 12th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
And targeting!
January 12th, 2019 at 2:34 PM ^
You can't have targeting twice, the player is thrown out after the first one!
January 12th, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^
It's 2 guys on the same play. Last year's line.
January 12th, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
"Now, 5 things can happen and 4 of them are bad"
If you go down that road, you have to list all the defensive penalties that can happen too.
January 12th, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
Alternatively, only 4 things can happen when you run, and 3 of them are bad.
(Gain yards, lose yards, no gain, fumble.)
Suck it, Woody! :P
January 12th, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^
And holding. Might as well not play if so many bad things happen. If I contemplate all the things that can go wrong I should just stay in bed (until I get bed sores and they evict me...)
January 12th, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
Did you really just quote a buckeye coach on here? C'mon man. You're better than that.
January 12th, 2019 at 8:20 AM ^
Fielding Yost first passed the ball forward. Dude was a savant...
January 12th, 2019 at 1:40 PM ^
St. Louis University threw the first pass in 1906.
January 12th, 2019 at 1:44 PM ^
Yost wasn't the first to pass but was an early adopter. He was the first to win a game on a touchdown pass. Back then a incomplete pass was a turnover.
January 12th, 2019 at 3:08 AM ^
Pass^3 is the lowest actually...or maybe I don't what I'm looking at.
January 12th, 2019 at 8:22 AM ^
The chart says you're correct. So Mike Leach is a moron for running his air raid? LOL!! Lets not take it that far, but it is an interesting chart...
January 12th, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
The chart is an interesting summary in a backwards looking sense. It has little predictive value though because there are all sorts of factors that go into the plays that were called, and the chart can't account for any of those.
At the very least, I wish we could get a breakdown for our own offense. Mixing all teams into one analysis makes little sense, for obvious reasons. Leach passing is very different than army or ga tech passing. AhlSho they all start calling plays based on this chart? Of course not, because it's predictive value is zero.
January 12th, 2019 at 9:01 AM ^
If this is passes on third down where 1+2 success put it at 3rd and 1, a bomb to the end zone and punch it in on 4th if fail is not a bad idea even if it's a lower % play.
January 12th, 2019 at 4:59 AM ^
The real secret is mixing plays and formations so that the D isn't able to home in.
January 12th, 2019 at 7:44 AM ^
Would we get flagged for “attempt to deceive “ if we used that strategy?
January 12th, 2019 at 8:22 AM ^
It was after the "attempt to deceive" call that I became fully convinced of the bias against M and Harbaugh by officials and the deep state.
January 12th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
That isn't what convinced me. It was when Florida ran the Longest Yard play and scored their only touchdown against us that year and never got flagged for it that convinced me.
January 12th, 2019 at 1:53 PM ^
For me it was the same game. It was the failure to call grounding because "the quarterback intended to throw the ball beyond the line if scrimmage",
January 12th, 2019 at 7:44 AM ^
*hone
...and execution.
January 12th, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
*It's home in.
January 12th, 2019 at 8:53 AM ^
I think this is more nuanced bases on down and distance for each play in the sequence, and what the opponent is giving you.
Then again, I was one of the ones in the stands in the mid 80's booing everytime Bo called 3 yards and a cloud of dust on 1st down vs competition who were much more pass heavy. (The Jimmy came along FWIW.)
On the flip, the Bama fans at the Mizzou game I went to were grumbling they weren't running enough on first down ("basketball on grass hurr hurr")
January 12th, 2019 at 9:19 AM ^
This is all too much for my little brain to take in on a Saturday morning.
January 12th, 2019 at 5:03 AM ^
Pass run run is the most successful but the 3rd play run is indicative of play number 1 or 2 being a chunk play most of the time in that 3 play scenario.
When the pass was incomplete and the 2 run was a minimal gain, you're going to pass the ball, and that's typically unsuccessful (lowest success rate on the chart).
So, the takeaway from this is that if you pass on first down, you're more likely to get a first down. The success of that is tied directly to if that first down pass was successful, so crossing routes, screens, etc would be your best bet. Going deep is a statistically less likely play to be completed and then your stuck in the worst end of the spectrum.
January 12th, 2019 at 7:32 AM ^
Disagree. If your goal was to gain 1 first down you are correct. But if a completed long pass is 30+ yards, that's basically 3 first downs and thus needs to be evaluated as such.
January 12th, 2019 at 7:38 AM ^
That’s crazy talk and will never work for us.
January 12th, 2019 at 8:28 AM ^
Whaaa??? Did you read the fine print on the bottom? It says that the chart charts 1st down plays that gained 5 yds or more, 2nd down gains of 4 yards or more, and converting 3rd into first. That is all this chart says.
It says nothing about long bombs, other than that they were successful plays that make the chart. All it does say is that getting a good gain on first and/or second, generally leaves you with a makeable 3rd conversion... And I think we all knew that!
January 12th, 2019 at 8:54 AM ^
What if you get a first down every play, then what's the best sequence?
January 12th, 2019 at 9:19 AM ^
That works great against most teams. But most DC's of elite teams stop the run 1st. Good example is how msu 2015 @ Cbus, clemson 2016, UM 2016&17 and oklahoma 2017 shut down OSU with JT Barret. They were all-in stopping the run.you could probably add 2017 Iowa as well. They were willing to give up the occasional pass plays too shut down the run
January 12th, 2019 at 5:11 AM ^
This suggests that the overall best strategy is pass-pass-run.
It's true pass-run-run is the best *when you must have three plays*. The most successful one sequence play is pass. IF you fail, on second down, the best option is pass. Then on third down you run.
The best overall sequence is pass-pass-run.
January 12th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
Yes, this is correct.
Pass-Rush more often leads to a easily converted 3rd down rush, but Pass-Pass gives you the best chance to gain a first down without having to face 3rd down, which is the high stress down.
January 12th, 2019 at 6:55 AM ^
Someone email this to Jimmy!!
January 12th, 2019 at 7:17 AM ^
Does NFL=CFB? Probably not.
Don't sell the farm yet.
January 12th, 2019 at 7:43 AM ^
What about fourth down?
January 12th, 2019 at 8:06 AM ^
It nearly always follows third!
January 12th, 2019 at 8:37 AM ^
You should always punt. Everyone knows that
January 12th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
I respectfully disagree
January 12th, 2019 at 9:42 AM ^
Get the ten best players out there and kick it.
January 12th, 2019 at 8:30 AM ^
I think run-run-pass (manball!) has the lowest sum of percentages if you follow the flow top to bottom
January 12th, 2019 at 8:30 AM ^
Not sure if Nate silver just grabbed the numbers or what. Run on 3rd down has a high success rate, regardless of 1+2 but that seems like it's with an average of 3rd and 2 with success of the third down being an EPA of over 1 vs 5 on 1 and 4 on 2.
Obviously NFL coaches are trying to call what's going to work. Pass on third probably has low success because youd rather run if you are close (especially in 4 down territory). So my guess is passes on 3rd down average significantly farther back than runs on 3rd.
If this is how he ran the numbers, really the most telling stat is just 1st down, followed by a distant 2nd as success of any individual series is highly dependent on what happened that first play.
January 12th, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^
Your last point is spot on. Throwing on first down is more successful at the pro level than running it. According to the chart running it on 3rd down is more successful than throwing it regardless of what happened before. As you said, that is very dependent on what happened previously.
I read earlier this year that statistically one of the biggest differences with what offenses were doing to increase scoring was simply passing more on 1st down.
January 12th, 2019 at 1:35 PM ^
I think the success definition of the ex-post expected points for the drive minus the ex-ante expected points for the drive largely accounts for that.
Keep in mind that the decisions to run or pass bias the data. The decision to run on 3rd is highly dependent on yards to go. The breakout doesn't consider success/failure of preceding downs, only the run/pass decision.
One quick interpretation of the higher run success rate for all four conditions is that it is better to convert on third down (and keep your options open for the next set of downs), while it is better to use your options on first down.
January 12th, 2019 at 4:25 PM ^
Nate Silver didn’t write the article, so....
January 12th, 2019 at 8:32 AM ^
This article was plagiarized from chapter 7 of the Communist Manifesto.