Is Iggy one and done?

Submitted by TK on November 29th, 2018 at 11:21 AM

Before the season started, I would have thought no possible way. However with the way that he is playing, it looks like it might be a distinct possibility. I assume that Matthews will be gone after this season, so perhaps next year Livers and Jalen Wilson will replace them in the starting lineup? Either way, it’s a good problem to have considering how well he is playing. Another factor is that he is older for a freshman, he will turn 20 this year.

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FanNamedOzzy

November 29th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^

At this point? Probably. Main reason is that Michigan is built really well, this year. It's going to keep him in the spotlight all year and will have lots of opportunities to continue to impress.

I'd guess he'll end up with a mid-first round draft projection, which is more than enough reason to leave.

Joined: 08/22/2014

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ijohnb

November 29th, 2018 at 11:29 AM ^

I thought this was an absurd notion a week into the season but at this point I would have to say it is more likely than not.  However, almost none of the fantastic recruiting class from last year has seen the floor yet and they were all very coveted players.  Beilein is building a monster. 

Joined: 09/21/2009

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1VaBlue1

November 29th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^

Probably, and so what?  Next man up will be pretty good, too.  I mean, Brandon Johns doesn't' even get to play on this team!  I think they'll be okay next year, with or without Iggy.  He sure is fun to watch, though!  And we should continue watching him play because, so far, our watching has caused him to play quite well!

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bacon1431

November 29th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^

If he does, that means he probably turned in an All-B1G type season. Which means he continued this play throughout the conference regular season. Which means we would probably finish at or near the top of the conference. Which means we had a very good to great season. 

So in the end, it'd probably be fine with me. 

Joined: 07/26/2008

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Leaders And Best

November 29th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^

Huh? Zion Williamson is 18. RJ Barrett is 18. Cam Reddish turned 19 in September. Brazdeikis is going to turn 20 in January.

For comparison, Stauskas turned 20 during his sophomore year of basketball. Brazdeikis's age will be a significant thing in his NBA evaluation. An NBA team will probably look and evaluate him more as a sophomore than a freshman. No NBA mock draft even has Brazdeikis in the 1st Round right now so I think calling him top 5-10 pick is ludicrous at this point.

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dcloren2121

November 29th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^

I see what you're saying now.  I read it differently than you meant it.  Reading is hard. 

All that being said, the back half of the lottery is always a crap shoot and I would not be surprised to see someone roll the dice on him in that range.  He's big and athletic enough to play multiple spots, can shoot the 3, has a midrange game, and can attack the basket, plus finish with both hands. 

I'm not saying he absolutely does go there, I just think he absolutely COULD go there.  Mikal Bridges was like 22 and got drafted in the lottery despite having a pretty low ceiling but high floor. 

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UP to LA

November 29th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^

Not sure that that's true. The difference between a 20yo project and a 19yo project is marginal, but it's def not zero. All else equal, the younger guy has a (marginally) higher expected peak, and he'll give you (marginally) more expected production over the course of a career.

Joined: 09/22/2018

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UP to LA

November 29th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^

For sure -- he does a lot of things well already, a lot of things not great yet. But the label of 'project' is a matter of degree. Point is that having a year of development and biological age behind you has a marginal, non-zero effect on evaluations.

Joined: 09/22/2018

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LeCheezus

November 29th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^

I think you're correct in that he will basically be evaluated as a Sophomore, but I don't think the year/age thing is working against him yet.  In 2 years as a 22 year old Junior, that would probably be more relevant.  The fact that he's older probably makes it more likely he should/will take advantage of a high draft grade this year if he gets it.

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Leaders And Best

November 29th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^

I agree that if he gets a 1st round grade this year, he is and probably should be gone. But I don't think we are there yet. He is just getting on scouting reports. Roy Williams couldn't even pronounce his name during his pregame presser. As Brazdeikis gets more scouted, his game is going to get more tested. It just seems people are jumping to some crazy talk with little evidence to back it up. He has played a handful of games and is not projected to be a 1st Round pick at this point. I am not sure why we are talking about the top 10 right now.

Joined: 09/09/2009

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UMinSF

November 29th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^

Questions about his athleticism? He's more athletic than Burke or Stauskas, who have been mentioned numerous times in this thread for comparison. To my eyes, his athleticism is a feature, not a bug. He's strong and sturdy, he ferociously attacks the basket, and finishes gracefully with either hand. 

IMO another year learning from Coach B and company would be hugely valuable to him (really, for most players). His shot will be smoother, his passing far better, and his court vision and spacing will continue to improve. Coach Beilein's system mirrors the current NBA, so learning from him really does directly translate; it's not surprising so many Beilein guys make it to the NBA.

That said, even if he'd be a more finished product with another year, it might not improve his draft placement much.

How far we go in the tournament may be a factor as well - if we make it to the FF (or beyond), he might feel he's achieved his college goals; if we fall short it might motivate him to stay.

So naturally it depends on Iggy and his priorities. What seems pretty clear is he's got NBA-level talent. Kid can ball.

 

Joined: 04/06/2009

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umchicago

November 29th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^

i get that it has been only 7 games, but what more does he need to learn?  not sure i've seen a more polished freshmen in all phases of the game than him, here or maybe anywhere.  maybe prove he is a good 3 pt shooter, but not sure JB can help much more on that.  

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Leaders And Best

November 29th, 2018 at 11:51 AM ^

It is not a necessarily a negative, but you have to account for it and evaluate him against prospects his own age for the NBA. You are trying to project his ceiling and potential as a player, and his age is part of that. It doesn't matter for Michigan or college basketball, but for an NBA team drafting him, it would definitely be something that would be considered.

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jmblue

November 29th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^

Silly reasoning here.  Being 20 as an NBA rookie is quite normal and in no way a negative.  And comparing him to Burke and Stauskas is apples and oranges as they play different positions and are in different classes.  You can't just say that because Player X was drafted_____ five years ago that Player Y will be drafted there (or lower) this year.  It depends on the teams picking, the depth of the draft class, etc.    

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Leaders And Best

November 29th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^

I never said it was a negative. I am talking about evaluating his production, performance, and athleticism RELATIVE to his age. The reason I brought Burke and Stauskas into the discussion as they are Michigan players who went pro at the same age as Brazdeikis but were sophomores who had All-American years, went pro in weak drafts, and still barely cracked the top 10. Would we be having this conversation if Brazdeikis were a sophomore? I don't think so. He has played 7 games, and he doesn't even appear on most legitimate mock drafts. So why are we talking about him going in the top 5-10? People need to pump the brakes a little.

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Larry Appleton

November 29th, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^

He gone.

I hope I hope we can squeeze a great tourny run out of him in his one year in maize & blue.n . But yeah, go get that money, young man.

I will be happy to see Livers getting back into the starting lineup next year, though.  He's going to be another Caris - not a blue chip prospect but one that Beilein turns into a first-round pick in 3-4 years.

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