Matchup breakdowns
These are just my opinions, feel free to agree or disagree.
QB: Slight edge OSU
RBs: Even
WRs: Slight edge OSU
TEs: Michigan
OL: Michigan
DL: Michigan
LBs: Michigan
Secondary: Slight edge Michigan
Special Teams: Even
Coaching: Even. Harbaugh is great but let’s not fool ourselves about Urban. He knows how to win big games.
Emotional edge: Slight edge UM. I think we want it more. OSU will come to play for sure, but this year I think it means more to us.
Other intangables: Edge OSU for home field and most likely more friendly officiating.
November 21st, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^
I feel like OL might be a "Push". Also if we split up DL into DE and DT. DE: Michigan. DT: Ohio State
November 21st, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
No, their DE's are the best part of their defense, and they aren't good against the run. You run right at them. They are really good against the pass.
November 21st, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^
I hope JBB is ready to mail them. He should have himself a day in the run game.
November 21st, 2018 at 3:04 PM ^
I hope he mauls them, then mails them.
Postage due.
November 21st, 2018 at 7:04 PM ^
Return to Sender, mother fucker!
November 21st, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
Why is the QB edge to OSU? Patterson has a better QBR this year and is a better runner. Unless you are chalking that up to the OL advantage (this feels weird to type).
Also Coaching I would put in favor of UM. Meyer has never done anything that has impressed me strategically. Harbaugh has with his game plan last year, and even in 2016 when Speight couldn't throw more than 20 yards. Meyer is aggressive going for it on 4th down, but in the past with their OL and Barrett there is no way they were being stopped on 4th and 1 or 2...
November 21st, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
Just basing it off what is going on now. I would say coaching favors us as well.......Maybe big time. With the uncertainty around Meyer, and his"health" He just has not looked like the same person, let alone his ability to coach.
November 21st, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^
Don Brown... nuff said
November 21st, 2018 at 1:50 PM ^
You sir, are a hard man to impress. I admire your homerism!
November 21st, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^
Well I will disagree on a few.
QB - ours is better for what they want to do and what we want to do. Haskins might be a better pocket passer, but that's it.
Secondary - ours is better and it ain't even close. If we get pressure on a consistent basis, this game won't be close either, because they might have to change their approach to protect the QB. I realize they do a lot of quick passes, but if that doesn't work, and we lock down the run, this will be a fun game for a Michigan fan to watch.
Go Blue!
November 21st, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
QB - I'll bet if Harbaugh called Meyer tonight and offered to swap QB's for The Game, he'd jump on it. And add some cash and buttplugs as a sweetener.
I know Haskins can run a bit, but he's nothing like what they're used to having. And good luck throwing against Don Brown's D.
November 21st, 2018 at 12:56 PM ^
I think the worst part about Haskins is not his lack of running ability but the guy is really bad at scrambling and buying time. Shea is one of the best in the country at that and this leads me to believe that given the choice Harbaugh would stick with Shea. The OL, while much improved, will give up some pressure and we need a guy like Shea who can move and doesn't panic when the pocket breaks down.
November 21st, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Patterson throws even better when he's on the move. Probably because he's used to running for his life at Ole Miss.
November 21st, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
I have been consistently impressed by Shea' mechanics when throwing the ball on the move. What's even more impressive is the fact that he can run either way and still has a knack for getting his shoulders pointed in the right direction. He's good, guys.
November 21st, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
Our secondary is weakest against slants and if they're short slants with quick throws then our D-Line won't have enough time to get to Haskins. Short throws are OSU's bread and butter. Haskins is going to throw a lot and complete a lot of these, the question is can our secondary be fundamentally sound and tackle well enough after the completion to avoid disastrous run-after-catch situations.
The statistics say yes (I think Michigan is the fifth best in the nation at tackling immediately after the catch) but OSU receivers are really really good at breaking tackles. Toughest test our secondary has faced all year. It will be interesting to watch.
November 21st, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^
I also think Brown is going to fuck with Haskins a ton on those short throws. Haskins will complete his share, but hopefully there are others that get tipped up into the secondary. And if Haskins starts hesitating because he's confused or doesn't trust what he's seeing, it's over.
November 21st, 2018 at 2:09 PM ^
As an update, since you apparently haven't been watching the last couple months, we aren't weak to slants anymore.
November 21st, 2018 at 5:29 PM ^
I wonder if the OP realizes certain facts about both teams. Michigan has the No. 1 pass defense in the country. Ohio State's offense is rated second but the defense is listed at No. 73. Last week against Maryland, they gave up almost 250 yards rushing in the first half alone. On two of the first three plays from scrimmage, Maryland's top running back, a freshman, scored twice on end run plays that went 80 and 55 yards.
Don't know what the numbers say about either team, except Michigan is pretty stout in stopping the pass game and Ohio State runs more plays than anyone in the country while Michigan is one of the best teams in the nation in TOP. If you're offense is on the sideline you can't score. And if your defense is giving up multiple explosive plays per game, which this Bucknut defense does, it makes your offense even more reliant on the one thing that Michigan is best at defending.
Now, Ohio State will hope all their elusive eligible receivers, and they are loaded with them, can break tackles and turn short pass plays into big ones. But Michigan is also one of the best in tackling after the catch and limiting YAC to about 2.2 yard average.
I don't know what to make of the Buckeye defense. Their linebackers are weak. They have a young secondary and they are not great tacklers but defend the pass fairly well. The Dline is good not great without Bosa. And Dre'mont Jones, their best rusher with Bosa gone, missed part of last week's game with a shoulder stinger. They also lost one of their starting offensive tackles in the Maryland game, and so his status was uncertain heading into Saturday. I presume he will play. Because his replacement was not great.
This game and the matchups are never a function of paper facts or pundit conclusions because the rivalry isn't governed by them. What sets this game apart from all the rest is the understanding of the emotional stakes involved and what victory means to the winning side, and correspondingly what losing also means.
So things that normally apply, like the team that runs the best and controls the LOS, are usually a better barometer in determining which will come out on top, along with all the intangibles like turnovers and penalties. And as we all know from 2016, the game will also hang in the balance based on the officiating.
November 22nd, 2018 at 1:14 AM ^
Yeah. Their secondary has graded out as the second worse in the conference according to PFF.
They bad and are going to get abused.
November 21st, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
QB feels even to me. Shea is a better runner, Haskins a better pocket passer.
November 21st, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^
Haskins won’t have a pocket!
November 21st, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
Comparing OL vs OL or DL vs DL seems less useful than.... Our OL vs their DL and their OL vs our DL. Theoretically, having a far superior OL than their OL matters much less if their DL is outstanding and our is not because the true match-up is who they will play against, not who they would be compared directly to as a substitute.
November 21st, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
Similarly, it's not Patterson vs. Haskins; it's, for example, Patterson vs. the OSU secondary and Haskins vs. the UMich secondary. How those match-ups work out, I do not know.
November 21st, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
Exactly right. I'll never understand why people make Nick Baumgardner style comparisons of, e.g., Team A's OL v. Team B's OL, when those units will ll never be on the field at the same time.
November 21st, 2018 at 7:18 PM ^
Lol you know exactly why - because it's easier
November 21st, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^
Nobody has mentioned WR yet. While young Michigan wrs are just as talented. I say push.
November 21st, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
I agree with the comments above that say it's silly to compare our WRs to theirs (as opposed to comparing our receivers to their secondary). But for fun, let's go player-by-player.
Others may disagree with this ranking, but I'd rank M's receivers as follows:
1) DPJ, 2) Nico, 3) Black, 4) Perry, 5) Bell, 6) Oliver
I'd rank OSU's receivers:
1) Hill, 2) Campbell, 3) McLaurin, 4) Dixon, 5) Victor, 6) Olave
I'm not counting Austin Mack, as he's injured. McLaurin was banged-up too but I believe he's expected to play.
Putting these guys head-to-head, it would be very close but I'd take M's first three guys over OSU's first three guys, but I'd easily take OSU's 4,5, and 6 over M's 4, 5, and 6. So I think M's are a smidge better at the top end, OSU has more quality depth.
November 21st, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^
I'd give a slight edge to OSU at WR just because they have more reliable depth. DPJ, Collins and Black is a trio as good as their best three, but then we're talking Ronnie Bell, Oliver Martin and Grant Perry against Dixon, Mack and Victor. Not to mention, a guy who we consider one of our top 3 wideouts has 1 catch for 5 yards this year because he's been out.
November 21st, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^
Not realistic to consider WRs without adding in TEs. If you consider the entire receiving corp, the edge goes to UM and it's not even close.
November 21st, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^
OP and this thread specifically were talking about WRs only, so that's why I went the route I did. But I agree that overall pass catchers is more relevant to the game itself. When you add in the TEs, I think pass catchers is either a push or a slight UM edge.
November 21st, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
I don't know whether it is an intangible or emotional edge, but Michigan sees themselves as a band of brothers with a common goal. OSU seems like a bunch of players that care more about their draft status than their team (see, e.g. Bosa, Nick). OSU's defense is littered with 4* and 5* talent, but their total is less than the sum of its parts. That is partially coaching, but it is also a consequence of their lack of cohesion and team play. That is a big advantage to Michigan.
November 21st, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
I agree with this take...and this may well be the biggest advantage in Michigan's favor. It seems as though the collective OSU soul has been lost. If Michigan can pound and pound and stay in the game into the 3rd quarter they can turn the tide in their favor-as they have been doing. But the offense is going to have to do their part and keep the defense off the field. Here, winning the TOP is likely to be another big deal.
November 21st, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
They know they won't make the playoff. If we get up early by a couple scores and control the ball, their players just might pack it in.
November 21st, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^
This feels very true but a player that I've always had a bit of concern for on our squad is Lavert Hill. The way that Coach Zordich has talked about him in the past suggests to me that he isn't always 100 percent committed. He had to get him motivated to improve 2 years ago (literally saying to the media that Lavert can be "as good as he wants to be" implying that he didn't have the drive to get better) and said some of the same things about Lavert again this off-season. When you couple that with some of his (in my opinion) lackadaisical play (the first quarter against Notre Dame comes to mind when he was repeatedly beaten by the receivers) he just gives me this uneasy feeling when I watch him. This is why I've always had more respect for David Long as a player and I totally understand why some draftnicks have rated Long better than Hill.
Of course the obvious caveat is I've never met the guy and this is all speculation but I just don't trust Lavert Hill to "bring it" when it matters most.
November 21st, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
I would rate most of the positions as being "pushes"...lots of talent everywhere-on both sides. I will take Michigan's LBs and TEs. It is going to come down to who makes the plays...and, I guess, in this regard I am glad to have Patterson on the good side.
Michigan surprised me a lot against Wisconsin and Penn State-hoping for another "surprise" like those two.
November 21st, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
QB edge OSU? The same team that brings in Tate Martell in the Red Zone? Nah, cuzzo! Ain't buyin'!
November 21st, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^
S&P+ breakdown:
When Michigan has the ball:
- Standard Downs: Michigan #6, OSU #69
- Passing Downs: Michigan #39, OSU #120
- 3rd/long success rate: Michigan #72, OSU #21
- 3rd/medium success rate: Michigan #14, OSU #16
- 3rd/short success rate: Michigan #56, OSU #44
- Red Zone 30-21: Michigan #48, OSU #20
- Red Zone 20-11: Michigan #127, OSU #85
- Red Zone inside 10: Michigan #8, OSU #115
When OSU has the ball:
- Standard Downs: Michigan #4, OSU #20
- Passing Downs: Michigan #5, OSU #12
- 3rd/long: Michigan #16, OSU #21
- 3rd/medium: Michigan #39, OSU #27
- 3rd/short: Michigan #50, OSU #37
- Red zone 30-21: Michigan #5, OSU #16
- Red zone 20-11: Michigan #3, OSU #32
- Inside 10: Michigan #113, OSU #56
Special Teams:
- FGs: Michigan #55, OSU #96
- When Michigan punts: Michigan #27, OSU #44
- When OSU punts: Michigan #22, OSU #5
- When Michigan kicks off: Michigan #19, OSU #23
- When OSU kicks off: Michigan #43, OSU #10
S&P+ Five Factors:
When Michigan has the ball:
- Efficiency: Michigan #22, OSU #31
- Explosiveness: Michigan #77, OSU #122
- Field Position: Michigan #11, OSU #4
- Finishing Drives: Michigan #68, OSU #44
When OSU has the ball:
- Efficiency: Michigan #2, OSU #7
- Explosiveness: Michigan #19, OSU #93
- Field Position: Michigan #3, OSU #50
- Finishing Drives: Michigan #79, OSU #24
Turnovers:
Michigan 2.6 points of turnover luck, OSU -1.6
November 21st, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
A little more:
When Michigan has the ball:
Rushing:
- Overall S&P: Michigan #25, OSU #68
- Efficiency: Michigan #66, OSU #40
- Explosiveness: Michigan #35, OSU #125
- Stuff rate: Michigan #30, OSU #5
Passing:
- Overall S&P: Michigan #7, OSU #93
- Efficiency: Michigan #17, OSU #56
- Explosiveness: Michigan #42, OSU #102
- Completion rate: Michigan #23, OSU #13
- Sack rate: Michigan #25, OSU #31
When OSU has the ball:
Rushing:
- Overall S&P: Michigan #9, OSU #57
- Efficiency: Michigan #10, OSU #49
- Explosiveness: Michigan #17, OSU #114
- Stuff rate: Michigan #15, OSU #67
Passing:
- Overall S&P: Michigan #6, OSU #11
- Efficiency: Michigan #2, OSU #4
- Explosiveness: Michigan #13, OSU #68
- Completion rate: Michigan #1, OSU #3
- Sack rate: Michigan #3, OSU #11
November 22nd, 2018 at 12:42 AM ^
I’m taking SheaPatterson over Haskins all day. Haskins has a big accurate arm but runs like a pussy. This is college football. Shea is no slouch and a much bigger leader.