UM vs OSU - Deep numbers analysis vs like opponents
A very good friend of mine and I have spent the last three months discussing at length every week's performance and lately, being the type of mind he is, our talks have gone into some DEEEEEP statistical analysis of offensive and defensive output. Below is the result of some serious statistical analysis of UM and osu's common opponents. I'm copying and pasting from an email he sent me since he is a consumer of MGoBlog, but not an active poster with an account. On a side note, you should have SEEN the spreadsheet he had going to do all this math...Wow!
An analysis of like opponents UM vs. OSU, which includes MSU, PSU, Maryland, Indiana, Nebraska and Rutger.
Against the 6 like opponents, OSU has averaged the following on offense
- 329 passing (92% of their avg.)
- 180 Rushing (99% of avg.)
- 510 total yards (94% of avg.)
- 40 points per game. (100%)
All of these are below their average for the year, except points scored.
Opponents have averaged against OSU:
- 387 total yards (102% of season avg)
- 223 passing (111% of avg)
- 164 rushing (91% of avg)
- 24 points (91% avg)
OSU has outscored these 6 opponents on average 40-24.
The combined record of all of OSU’s opponents, 51-70, only 2 teams have winning records.
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Against the 6 like opponents, UM has averaged the following offense
- 228 passing (108% of season avg.)
- 225 Rushing (103% of avg.)
- 452 total yards (105% of avg.)
- 39 points per game. (107%)
All of these are above their average for the year.
Opponents have averaged against UM
- 212 total yards (56% of season avg)
- 103 passing (51% of avg)
- 109 rushing (61% of avg)
- 12 points (46% avg)
UM has outscored these 6 opponents on average 39-12.
The combined record of UM’s opponents, 65-56, with 6 teams have winning records.
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Assuming UM’s offense gets the same percentage against OSU as OSU has allowed, UM would accumulate the following:
- 255 Passing
- 205 Rushing
- 460 Total Yards
- 36 Points
Assuming OSU’s offense gets the same percentage against UM as UM has allowed, OSU would accumulate the following:
- 169 Passing
- 110 Rushing
- 279 Total Yards
- 19 Points
If Michigan and Ohio State have their average game as they did against these opponents, Michigan wins big.
Michigan’s worst defense performance (VS. what opponents avg.):
- Passing: 195 yards to Indiana (78% of IU’s avg.) OSU would accumulate 257 yards
- Rushing: 193 yards vs. Rutgers (141% of RUT’s avg.) OSU would accumulate 254 yards
- Total yards: 385 yards vs. Indiana (94% of IU’s avg.) OSU would accumulate 479 yards
- Points: 20 points vs. Indiana (74% of IU’s avg.) OSU scores 29.6
Michigan’s worst offensive performance (vs. their avg.)
- Passing: 144 yards vs. PSU (69% of avg.) UM gets 160 yards
- Rushing: 171 yards vs. MD (78% of avg.) UM gets 128 yards.
- Total Yards: 395 yards @ MSU (92% of avg.) UM gets 356 yards.
- Points: 21 @ MSU (57% of avg.) UM gets 14 Points
Michigan would have to have half of its offense output and have its WORST defensive game to lose. Oh, and Michigan still held Indiana and MSU (their worst offensive and defensive games) to less total yards and only allowed 1 more point to MSU than the buckeyes.
Food for thought.
Go Blue.
November 20th, 2018 at 12:26 PM ^
I think this analysis is pretty similar to the methodology behind the SEC Fans game simulator.
November 20th, 2018 at 2:31 PM ^
One thing to keep in mind is that M has had an advantage over OSU with these opponents in terms of QB play. We got Lewerke not Lombardi; McSorely injured his knee against Iowa and had less mobility against us; same with Martinez of Nebraska.
Also, M played PSU at home, not on the road.
But still, the stats and the eye test say that we're the better team. But we haven't played an offense nearly as good as OSU's before. I think this could be a high-scoring game.
November 20th, 2018 at 3:04 PM ^
What about ND? We only allowed 24 pts.
If both our offense and our defense have improved since then...
I'm getting crickets or nice talk from usually confident Buckeye friends.
November 20th, 2018 at 4:47 PM ^
Ian Book took ND to a level Wimbush could only dream about since the Michigan game.
November 20th, 2018 at 6:18 PM ^
Book has carried the ball 71 times at 3.3 ypc. Aside from Wimbush throwing more DO's in one game vs UM than he did in all of 2017, rushing was the threat that he posed against Michigan.
Book is a very good passer, but I like our pass defense against Book, and I especially like our run defense against ND with Book at QB.
November 21st, 2018 at 1:12 AM ^
Wimbush had an abnormally productive game against UofM. He dropped some dimes that I don’t think Book would improve upon. And he killed us on 3rd down scrambles that Book can’t duplicate.
Book is a better QB but not against UofM on that day.
November 21st, 2018 at 9:44 AM ^
Hope Michigan gets a chance to prove this out in the CFP.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:10 PM ^
We haven’t seen an offense like OSUs but they haven’t seen a D like ours. Talent can only take you so far and this buckeye team hasn’t put it all together yet. Hokes teams are a great example. If we play disciplined football and Shea executes the annual new wrinkles that we pull out for this game, I think we roll them.
November 20th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^
Damn it. You're getting my hopes too high. Stop that. (Or don't.) But Stop that!
Seriously though - good analysis. Thanks for the insight.
November 20th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
This is awesome. Thanks. Trying not to get excited but failing.
November 20th, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^
Thank you for this analysis. Now let's go ahead and discard it as we are instructed to for all rivalry games forever.
November 20th, 2018 at 1:11 PM ^
Great stuff, FWIW, we were at msu and at rutger. All the rest were home.
Conversely, OSU was at msu, psu and Maryland.
November 20th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^
Home vs away wasn't part of the analysis, only the common opponents.
November 20th, 2018 at 2:26 PM ^
I am aware. I was merely pointing it out. We already know the transitive property doesn't apply in football; I was adding another wrinkle for the reader to consider.
November 20th, 2018 at 11:08 PM ^
Thanks Truefer, and you can that pointing of yours and go right back to your room.
November 22nd, 2018 at 6:42 AM ^
Home field advantage is worth about 3.5 pts. per game statistically, IIRC. So, even if you give OSU another 4 pts., Michigan still wins comfortably, in this exercise.
We've all watched both teams play this year, and while OSU may have a slight talent advantage, Michigan appears much better coached and more cohesive. I like our chances better than in most recent years, especially with the improved QB play.
GO BLUE! BEAT Ohio!
November 21st, 2018 at 1:15 AM ^
And we didn’t include Purdue. /s
November 20th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
Everyone GTFOH with your confidence. I've been reading MGoBlog fanatically since 2009 and I have yet to see a win in the shoe. This type of analysis is meaningless in this sort of game: an extremely hostile environment, an ultra-athletic opponent that's been playing below it's talent level, and almost two decades of history to overcome.
November 20th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
For someone so concerned about juju, I'm very suprisurp your name is essentially spartan-Wolverine.
November 20th, 2018 at 6:56 PM ^
Confidence is based on why has happened this season. Right now we are better than them.
We don’t have to play the 2017 Bucks, or the 2016 Bucks, etc. The 2018 Bucks are vulnerable, and this Michigan squad decimates vulnerable teams
November 20th, 2018 at 11:10 PM ^
I can confidently attest that none of this analysis rightfully applied post-2009 ......... until right now.
November 20th, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^
Very solid work, thank you. The stats cited probably move me from optimistic and hopeful to optimistic and somewhat confident :). Big game for both talented teams at the Shoe. I expect quite a battle from both teams. Go Blue !
November 20th, 2018 at 8:15 PM ^
This is really great stuff assuming you got the numbers correct.
November 20th, 2018 at 9:04 PM ^
Surprised at the idea that they played only two teams with winning records. with one of those teams running on fumes (MSU).
The PSU game (who choked btw) and TCU at the beginning of the season muddied my perception of them having a tougher schedule.
November 20th, 2018 at 10:54 PM ^
What does the turnover margin look like vs. the common opponents?
Because the only way OSU keeps this game close is to be at least +2 in turnovers.
November 21st, 2018 at 7:45 AM ^
Football isn't transitive. Should we expect Bama to beat Georgia by 46 given the results of their only common opponent, LSU, so far. Especially since both games were at LSU.
November 21st, 2018 at 9:36 AM ^
Michigan's pass defense will be easily the best one OSU has seen this year. As long as our CB's are healthy and stay in position, I like our odds. OSU is already a pretty one-dimensional team; if we can limit that one dimension I'm not sure they have a back-up plan.
November 21st, 2018 at 9:12 PM ^
I'm sold.
Might as well not even play the game.
November 21st, 2018 at 11:33 PM ^
Michigan's defense has never faced a QB with a rating of 167.1 nor a completion percentage of 69%.
Not even in weekly practice.
That's Dwayne Haskins - 335 yards per game, 8.7 YPA and 36 touchdowns.
Campbell, Victor and Hill are outstanding targets for his throws.
Control Haskins and this game is over.
Ohio State is 2nd in the nation in total yards per game with 554.
No one Michigan has faced even comes close. Note even Notre Dame (454 YPG).
This game is played in Columbus, where Michigan has not won since the second George Bush administration, and where officiating has been horrible.
Both Michigan #4 and Ohio State #3 are highly penalized teams respectively, so expect that aspect to possibly take a decisive toll in this game, on top of special teams, and turnovers.
Michigan's defense is significantly better than Ohio State's, with pass defense its speciality.
But Michigan also has the advantage in rushing offense.
In this game the team with the most rushing yards has won the game every year dating back to 1998.
Michigan 31, Ohio State 23
November 22nd, 2018 at 7:47 AM ^
When I analyzed common opponents, I considered only three: at Michigan State, Nebraska and Indiana. The other games were not played on the same field and I strongly believe the home field advantage is underestimated in college football.
My analysis suggests an even bigger advantage for Michigan if the game were played on a neutral site. My experience is that there's nothing neutral about the Horseshoe.
December 7th, 2018 at 12:43 AM ^
Doesn't look like this post holds up well. Eeek!
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