CFP Rankings: Michigan stays at #4
Full rankings:
1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Clemson (11-0)
3. Notre Dame (11-0)
4. Michigan (10-1)
5. Georgia (10-1)
6. Oklahoma (10-1)
7. LSU (9-2)
8. Washington State (10-1)
9. UCF (10-0)
10. Ohio State (10-1)
11. Florida (8-3)
12. Penn State (8-3)
13. West Virginia (8-2)
14. Texas (8-3)
15. Kentucky (8-3)
16. Washington (8-3)
17. Utah (8-3)
18. Mississippi State (7-4)
19. Northwestern (7-4)
20. Syracuse (8-3)
21. Utah State (10-1)
22. Texas A&M (7-4)
23. Boise State (9-2)
24. Pitt (7-4)
25. Iowa State (6-4)
November 20th, 2018 at 7:26 PM ^
Side note: Can someone please explain to me how Penn State is #12? It is honestly baffling to me.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^
This may surprise you but s&p likes Penn State too. I don't get it either.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:43 PM ^
Hey, that is a-ok with me. That is likely going to be Michigan's best win just by ranking (assuming we don't do something amazing and beat OSU by 20-30 in the Shoe)
November 20th, 2018 at 9:04 PM ^
I'll bet OSU doesn't drop below Penn State after losing to us. I think there's a big dropoff in resume after #10, and a loss to #4 Michigan doesn't move the needle enough, especially when you consider that OSU beat Penn State on the road, and would have one fewer loss.
November 20th, 2018 at 9:35 PM ^
You are right - there is a fairly big drop-off at #10. That's the big thing in these rankings.
All those teams from #11-#17 have rather fungible resumes. PSU's 3 best wins are at Pittsburgh, vs Wisconsin and vs Iowa. The worst loss is vs. MSU. Is that noticeably different than any of Kentucky, Florida, Texas, WVU, Washington and Auburn? No, it's really not.
I'm not saying my personal "Strength of Record" rankings that I play around with are perfect. But I have the same top #10 as the CFP rankings. I have PSU at #13 - Kentucky and Boise State ahead of them, and PSU ahead of Florida instead of behind them. But that whole group is rather close together and interchangable.
November 21st, 2018 at 12:57 AM ^
I really appreciate the perspective you bring to this blog. You deserved a better lot in life than to be raised a PSU fan. ;)
You’re right, though; this seems like the same discussion we have every year in March about how soft the basketball bubble is. Once you get past the top tier of teams, each team has multiple flaws, and the way that you rank them really just depends upon the criteria you use (and, as such, which flaws you consider most important). And I think if you looked at the rankings last year, or in 2016, or etc., you’d find the same thing. The size of the tiers change year-to-year, but it’s pretty much the same story.
PSU was destroying teams, non-OSU division, prior to their puzzling MSU game, and I think the Michigan game says more about Michigan and the power of a year’s focus than it does PSU. (Just like the 2017 game said more about PSU than it did about Michigan). This is a good PSU team; not great, and definitely flawed, but good.
November 20th, 2018 at 10:47 PM ^
I think there's a drop off after top 6 because 7 does not matter unless there's major chaos in the final week and championship week in which case WSU comes into play(and should be ranked ahead of LSU).
November 20th, 2018 at 8:10 PM ^
This is all part of a long, elaborate con. You’re playing checkers and Franklin is playing 4 dimensional chess...
November 20th, 2018 at 8:26 PM ^
That's Frames' game, man
November 20th, 2018 at 8:38 PM ^
The committee has a weird fetish for "good losses". Two of Penn State's losses were to top 10 teams, so the committee likes that. Even though PSU was not even competitive against Michigan.
But hey, LSU was not competitive against Alabama and look where they are. Didn't matter.
November 20th, 2018 at 8:52 PM ^
Same reason OSU is at #10: the teams below them are worse. I mean, you can argue for West Virginia to get moved up, since they only have 2 losses and beat Texas, but those two losses were to #25 Iowa State and unranked Oklahoma State. I'd probably put them ahead of Penn State, but I don't know that anyone else necessarily deserves it.
November 20th, 2018 at 9:31 PM ^
I'd also put PSU above Florida, and move WVU up two spots.
November 20th, 2018 at 10:09 PM ^
Here's an exercise. Take the S&P+ rankings and use those to "rank the various opponents a school has played", while also correcting for "site of game" by increasing an opponent's S&P+ by 3 points for a neutral site game, and 6 points for a road game.
Do that, and you would find that WVU's 3rd best win of the year is ......... vs. Tennessee (neutral-site game).
Nothing against WVU, but they don't have many impressive victories beyond at Texas and at Texas Tech.
Per this "ranking of opponents played method", Utah has 6 victories more impressive than a neutral-site win at Tennessee, Florida, Washington and PSU each have 5 victories more impressive, and Kentucky and Texas each have 4.
I think various rankings are picking up on this - and it's why WVU isn't quite so high despite having only 2 losses (vs. the other schools having 3).
November 20th, 2018 at 9:13 PM ^
Probably because Florida is #11.
November 20th, 2018 at 9:18 PM ^
Not exactly world beaters behind them, although 13 would be fine.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:27 PM ^
LSU at 7 is still ridiculously stupid. As is Penn State at 12, above West Virginia. Also, is someone on the Committee the biggest Syracuse fan in the world?
November 20th, 2018 at 7:32 PM ^
Because it is not just number of losses, but who you played and beat
November 20th, 2018 at 7:38 PM ^
If LSU loses to A&M this weekend, I think we all know what will happen.
A&M will be #5 and LSU will be #6.
November 20th, 2018 at 8:09 PM ^
I think it will be...
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Texas A & M
4. LSU
November 21st, 2018 at 4:27 AM ^
TAMU despite being all the way down at #22, is favored over #7 LSU. It certainly looks weird.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:53 PM ^
Syracuse's rank is all about trying to keep ACC teams in there. But the crappy teams they keep overranking keep losing...
Iowa and Wisconsin losing could have hurt PSU, except they're propping up Pitt for the same reason, and that inflates PSU
LSU, FLA, and Kentucky are all about 8 spots each too high as well...
November 20th, 2018 at 8:21 PM ^
Pitt... I don't know why they can justify ranking a team that gets blown out by 50ish each to multiple non-top 10 teams (PSU/UCF). As you say they want the ranking matchup for Clemson/Pitt.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:28 PM ^
Win and we are in. Georgia won’t beat Bama.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:44 PM ^
Unless we don't want them to. Then they will.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:45 PM ^
I know the transitive property doesn't work for CFB, but the team that blasted Georgia - LSU - got absolutely run over by Bama at home. I worry Georgia will pull off the work case scenario and beat Bama to get 2 SEC teams in, but it ain't happening
November 20th, 2018 at 7:49 PM ^
Even if they do, there is an argument to be made that Bama's schedule is so weak that they won't get in with one loss should everything else stay as it is.
November 20th, 2018 at 9:10 PM ^
We shouldn't be so hopeful. The committee has already said they value the 'best' teams and Alabama is essentially a lock for the CFP. Even if they lose close games to Auburn and Georgia, talking heads will still discuss if Bama should be the 4 seed
November 20th, 2018 at 10:28 PM ^
Western Michigan won tonight to end their season 7-5. That helps our cause some against a one loss Alabama as we will have had more wins (7) against 7 win teams (along with a host of other related and probably more useful metrics).
Just win, and win big, baby.
November 20th, 2018 at 9:11 PM ^
Except that everyone on that committee has a wall poster of Nick Saban shirtless.
November 21st, 2018 at 6:05 AM ^
Only shirtless?
November 20th, 2018 at 8:16 PM ^
I think Georgia is going to beat Alabama soundly.
November 20th, 2018 at 8:23 PM ^
I see what you did there, I’d put $100 on Georgia to win too
November 20th, 2018 at 7:29 PM ^
Go WVA and Georgia Tech just for the lulz
November 20th, 2018 at 7:29 PM ^
Iowa State has 6 wins and they are in the top 25? Is this the worst year ever for college football or what?
November 20th, 2018 at 7:31 PM ^
Lol i just noticed that. The committee stupid
Edit: Also how the hell is lsu still number 7. Wsu deserves to be there
November 20th, 2018 at 7:56 PM ^
Hard to say that Wazzu deserves to be ranked ahead of LSU or any of the one loss teams ahead of it. The Pac-12 is down, and its loss to USC looks worse by the week.
November 20th, 2018 at 8:18 PM ^
It's loss to USC was heavily influenced by an overturned targeting call that the conference’s senior vice president of business affairs insisted be overturned. Otherwise, great chance they win that game.
November 20th, 2018 at 8:26 PM ^
Easy now, LSU had a tough game against perennial football powerhouse Rice, and almost managed to do as well as we did against #12 PSU. With that performance they definitely deserve to remain #7, even with twice as many losses as teams around them.
November 20th, 2018 at 8:42 PM ^
Look at WSU's non-conference schedule. It's a joke.
1-10 San Jose State, 5-6 Wyoming, an FCS school
November 20th, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^
Wins are finite.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
Double posts are infinite.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^
No. I want infinite wins.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^
Wins are finite.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
Double posts are infinite.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:41 PM ^
Seems like the middle of all the P5 conferences is just trash this year. 15-25 is just a turnstyle of 5-3, 6-4, etc. teams
November 20th, 2018 at 8:26 PM ^
Maybe the optics just seem that way cuz we’re on the top this year, a 3-4 loss Michigan is usually in the top teens to 25 at this time of year ?
November 20th, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^
Agree. Seems like an odd year. Last year at this time there wasn't a single team with 4 losses that was ranked.
November 20th, 2018 at 7:30 PM ^
Man i hope we beat osu. I'm so freakin excited
November 20th, 2018 at 7:31 PM ^
You’re goddam right we did
November 20th, 2018 at 7:31 PM ^
Boy they might hate Ohio State more than we do.
Noice!