B1G Championship/Playoff Probabilities based on S&P+
So I was really bored in class and decided to put together a quick quantification of our basic B1G championship/playoff odds based on the S&P+ Team Profiles . It's nothing groundbreaking but I figured I would share. You can see the results below.
A couple notes if you're interested in my methodology:
- The UM/OSU "Results" refer to the results of their last two games in order
- Win Probabilities are taken from the S&P + team profile pages mentioned above
- Win Probabilities for Northwestern are estimated based on M's postgame win expectancy from the Team Profile page
- This is somewhat generous to NW considering we played a pretty sub-par game in Evanston, but given the past decade of Michigan football, you'll forgive me for being conservative
- I rounded down to 80% for OSU's win probability vs. Northwestern, based on the fact that OSU is a little worse than UM according to S&P+
- The resultant B1G east champions in each scenario are color coded accordingly
- I made a couple of assumptions with regards to the playoff:
- UM gets in if they win out and doesn't if they don't.
- Honestly I don't see a scenario where this isn't the case. A two loss team doesn't get in and a one loss B1G champ doesn't get left out.
- OSU is a coin flip to get in if and only if they win out
- I think some things need to break their way. No team that has been blown out has ever gotten in. I just divided the probability they win out in half and called it a day.
- UM gets in if they win out and doesn't if they don't.
November 12th, 2018 at 7:58 PM ^
When we beat OSU by 3 touchdowns, the rest of the percentages should go up nicely.
November 12th, 2018 at 9:49 PM ^
Of course, ALL OF US would be more than happy with a 1-point win, having so many near misses and heartbreak -- among the blowouts -- vs. OSU in the past 15 years. That said, yeah...wouldn't it be just the best to blow them out, to NOT have to sweat through the win, and to leave their fans in stunned silence?
We can only hope.
Again, I'd be more than happy to win 7-6, though.
November 12th, 2018 at 10:18 PM ^
November 12th, 2018 at 10:23 PM ^
I want them to stay to be able to boo their team off the field. The halftime boos were raining a couple of weeks ago so they are primed.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:18 AM ^
I would rather the game be over when we score in the first possession of the second half.
November 12th, 2018 at 11:40 PM ^
Imagine if we flush their toilet bowl stadium and take it over.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^
Imagine if we flush their toilet bowl stadium and take it over.
I'd like to imagine a day where Michigan stadium isn't 50% red on that last game in November. Sigh.
November 12th, 2018 at 8:12 PM ^
This chart is labeled in such a way as to be totally confusing. It looks like Michigan's results go across and OSU's down.
November 12th, 2018 at 8:18 PM ^
sorry about that. No OSU's go across, UM's go down. My bad
November 12th, 2018 at 8:51 PM ^
Beat IU
November 12th, 2018 at 10:19 PM ^
November 12th, 2018 at 9:08 PM ^
Does S&P win probability take home vs away into account? Giving us a 60% chance to win seems high given that we'll probably be playing in one of the most hostile environments in all of sports. I think we'd be 7 point favorites on a neutral field, but in Columbus it's a toss-up.
November 12th, 2018 at 9:18 PM ^
Believe so. And IIRC, home/away equates to about 3 points. So on a neutral field, we’d be favored by 7.5 according to the S&P+ prediction.
November 12th, 2018 at 9:46 PM ^
There is no home field in the country that's worth 7 points. Not even Death Valley at night.
November 12th, 2018 at 10:14 PM ^
Many believe the home field advantage to be the crowd inspiring the home team. I disagree. I believe the home field advantage is the calls that do not get made against the home team. This is very difficult to quantify with a number.
November 13th, 2018 at 9:08 AM ^
3 - there, does that help?
November 12th, 2018 at 11:18 PM ^
I think it matters, most of all to the QBs (the DBs and receivers to a lesser to degree) and their experience. For Milton or Peters, the home/away difference could easily be two touchdowns. For Patterson, much less. Stay healthy, Shea.
November 13th, 2018 at 6:45 AM ^
I know the standard practice is to assign a 3-point advantage for the home field. But I definitely think it can be more valuable than just a field goal. Take Purdue-OSU. Is that a PU blowout win in Columbus, too? I wouldn't think so.
November 13th, 2018 at 12:14 AM ^
Throw out the math and stats in a rivalry game!!!
November 13th, 2018 at 7:16 AM ^
All stats & math aside, I can’t forget two years ago watching Meyer running up & down the sideline exhorting the fans. This year I hope he does the same with about 17 of his fans left in the stadium because they all left after the first half blowout.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^
UM gets in if they win out and doesn't if they don't.
- Honestly I don't see a scenario where this isn't the case. A two loss team doesn't get in and a one loss B1G champ doesn't get left out.
There's a really easy scenario where the B1G champ gets left out.
A 1 loss 'Bama is getting in over Michigan. It rounds out with SEC champ, Clemson, ND. Bank on it.
November 13th, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^
People keep saying this, but I can't really believe it. In the scenario you describe, Alabama and Michigan will both be 12-1. Michigan will have 10 conference wins compared to Alabama's 8, plus a conference championship. Alabama's OOC wins are an FCS team, two mediocre Sun Belt teams, and a really bad Louisville team. Losses would be comparable, both to other playoff teams.
Alabama may be the best team ever, but something as subjective as the "eye test" really can't override the resume comparison without causing an uproar.
November 13th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
This is the best argument against Bama getting in no matter what that I've read/heard anywhere.
November 13th, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
People keep saying this, but I can't really believe it.
When has logic and reason applied to CFP decision making?
We're told, or it used be on the CFP's website in their charter (did you ever read it), that SoS matters. Hint: it doesn't.
Bama doesn't have to travel or play P5 OOC because THEY ARE STILL ALWAYS GONNA BE RANKED #1.
We're told, or it used be on the CFP's website in their charter, that similar opponents and H2H matters. It doesn't. It's a lie.
What the CFP does is not an accomplishment process. It's a beauty contest... and people are delusional if they think 'Bama isn't the hottest chick even though Michigan has the better personality.
November 13th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
This is a misguided assessment on so many levels...
If Bama's loss is in the SEC championship to Georgia, who also has 1 loss in the end and has just beaten Bama, then Georgia goes to the CFP and Bama does not. The SEC championship is a de facto quarter-final game, and the CFP is not going to go for a rematch of a game that was just played 3 weeks prior on a neutral field. Moreover, the CFP looks for teams that have won their conference championships, and by inference, will eliminate teams that have lost their conference championship. The only reason Bama got in last year is because they had one loss, did not play in the SEC championship, did not play the SEC champion, Georgia, at any other time, and there were no other teams with one-loss with as good an argument for being in the playoff as Bama.
November 13th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^
I look forward to your take if Georgia beats 'Bama and Michigan is on the outside looking in. LOL!
November 13th, 2018 at 10:22 AM ^
The win probability for Michigan vs. Northwestern can be computed based on the difference in the S&P+ ratings, which projects a point spread on a neutral field.
Michigan = +24.9
Northwestern = -0.8
-----------------------------
Spread = 25.7
Given that the probability distribution of point spreads follows a Gaussian distribution with zero mean and standard deviation of 15.53 points, the win probability for Michigan to beat Northwestern is 95.1% (about 1:19 odds).
The probability of Michigan advancing to the Big Ten Championship is reduced to 3 possible mutually exclusive scenarios:
- Maryland beats OSU (22.8%) and UM beats IU (97.0%)
=> 0.228*0.970 = 22.1% - OSU beats Maryland (77.3%) and UM beats OSU (60.2%)
=> 0.773*0.602 = 46.5% - Maryland beats OSU (22.8%) and IU beats UM (3.0%) and UM beats OSU (60.2%)
=> 0.228*0.030*0.602 = 0.4%
So the total probability of being the B1GE champ is P(1) + P(2) +P(3) = 22.1% + 46.5% +0.4% = 69.1%, which is more or less in agreement with the OP.
From there, the probability of M winning the B1G championship is 65.7%, or the probability of making it to the game times the probability of winning it (0.691*0.951).
November 13th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^
good stuff. couldn't figure out how to do that in S&P + and was being lazy. thanks