SPONSOR NOTE: Reminder that Matt is hanging out at the Charity Tailgate at 327 East Hoover (if you were at the preseason MGoEvents this year and last it's the same place). There are food trucks, beer, televisions, a giant colorful bus, and it's right next to Revelli so the band will march past. Check it out.

When not tailgating Matt is also a person who will get you a mortgage right quick from the comfort of your own home. If you need one, he's the man, man.

FORMATION NOTES: Michigan mixed it up a bit more this week, with 17 pistol snaps and 13 from under-center ace formations. The fullback has largely fallen out of the offense; just 6 snaps with two backs, and one of those featured Mason as a wing TE. Instead, thirteen three-TE snaps. These were almost all runs but the Collins deep shot and Gentry RPO TD were from three-TE sets.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: The usual at QB and OL, except for a change at backup LT: Nolan Ulizio got in instead of Jalen Mayfield as they seek to preserve Mayfield's redshirt. An absolute ton of TE snaps, as mentioned above, saw Gentry and McKeon split snaps almost equally; between Eubanks spotting one of the starters and the 3 TE sets Eubanks saw maybe half of Michigan's snaps outside of clear passing downs.

Tarik Black was still pretty limited, with maybe a dozen snaps. Collins and Peoples-Jones maintained their starting roles. One thing to look out for going forward: DPJ in the slot with Black and Collins on the outside. Bell, Martin, and Perry all had a handful or two of snaps.

Evans returned full-go in this one, getting about a third of the RB snaps. Higdon got the rest except for a few from Mason. Wilson got in right at the end.

[After THE JUMP: deviously doing the stuff you're already doing]

I mean?

Maybe some drive chartin'?

This might help.

Michigan drives aside from the excursions at the end of both halves:

• TD drives of 76, 48, 90, 53, and 12 yards.
• A 64-yard drive ending in a missed FG.
• A 31-yard drive ending in a turnover on downs.
• Three three-and-outs.

That is against S&P+'s #20 defense.

That seems good?

Pretty much?

Why do I enter these being like "ugh what's even going on" and then it's fine?

Michigan has a concentration of frustrating bits early in games that means the lead they're staked to isn't as big as it seems it should be. Here they had the opening GRRRAAHHH touchdown drive and then five of their next six drives were all their negative outcomes. This is a lot like the Wisconsin and Michigan State games, when Michigan's clear dominance didn't turn into sufficient points to exhale until late.

Does that mean anything?

Probably not? They've put up points quickly in many games and then fallen into a funk, but they're picking up yards on most drives before petering out. I think it's just some unfortunate clustering of Michigan's bad plays on an offense that is good but still has some holes.

One thing that may be meaningful: Michigan has become good at bashing teams late in games, possibly because the opposition is tired. The combination of three-and-out city on the other side of the ball and Michigan's ability to stay on the field (M is #5 in third down conversion percentage) creates scenarios where the fourth quarter is won before it even starts.

So this is a good offense?

It's a B, B+ offense that could take off if Patterson ever gets locked in.

Let us GRRRRAAAHH!

Sure. Michigan's opening drive set the tone for a day featuring 3 runs for every Michigan pass. The first chunks were when Michigan anticipated and defeated a couple of corner blitzes on the second and third snaps from scrimmage… with a significant assist from Penn State linebackers. The PSU MLB here takes a false step left on a pin and pull:

The key item for Michigan is Bredeson seeing the CB and kicking him out, and then Gentry and Runyan fire guys slanting away from the play way down the line for the giant gap. M blocks that to the safety but McKeon didn't do much with Farmer so Higdon can't set the last block up.

The next play was split zone that busted for 50 yards. CB blitz again, which you'll see come in from the left. Once the line creases there's nobody:

That is largely Koa Farmer not really knowing what he's doing. He gets lost checking gaps that the CB should have and never considers scraping to the actual play. The rest is Onwenu with a crease-creating W and JBB getting the other LB kicked out.

From here it's belly and arc keepers on four of the next five plays, touchdown. Michigan seemed to anticipate that PSU would try to stymie the arc games with exchanges, so instead of running the tight end to the backside like it's split zone they lined up two TEs to the arc side and let the DE free anyway. PSU seemed baffled by this. First the DE wasn't ready to be unblocked:

PSU DE #99 to top

He's static, standing around, and Patterson gives.

The next time he tore at the RB, which he'd do most of the rest of the day. But without the split zone motion from the TE it didn't seem like the PSU defense was prepared to defend the arc. Patterson's first carry of the day sees him get a dead easy read as the DE crashes hard, and then nobody replaces him. McKeon can go to the safety and if he does a better job getting a block here this is a walk-in TD:

They'd get that later on the second keeper, which does have the split zone motion but still draws little response as PSU is in full-on goal-line mode:

Eight runs, seven points, ballgame. Pretty much.

To me the excellent bit of that drive was Michigan hammering it in from the 15 on runs of 4, 3, 4, 2, and 2 yards. That's not going to look impressive even on a fancystat box score but the regularity with which Michigan was able to put themselves in short yardage situations makes it feel like any four yard run is a win. Michigan is #1 in average third down distance nationally, and the five-yard series above kind of makes them feel like a triple option team where if you let them stay on schedule they're going to get in third and short and fourth and short and eventually your pets' heads fall off. See also: tired players late in games.

So this was a paving?

Yes, the headline numbers—5.2 yards a sack-adjusted carry—are barely above NCAA average but do not even approach the whole story here. That is a near-complete clobbering, as this

i have always been waiting for two weeks before designing a screen to exploit OSU linebackers

chart will demonstrate:

Ruiz didn't get a lot of opportunities to rack up positives for whatever reason; he did airball on two LBs. I wouldn't worry too much about that. Off day, almost no discernible bad line calls, no pressures allowed, he's fine.

The "mostly" bit is the tight ends, I imagine?

Yes. The sheer quantity of grading both guys came in for is remarkable. I don't know if I've ever had 21 total points for a single TE before and there's no way 35 between two TEs has ever happened. There was a ton on their plate as Michigan continually attacked PSU's DEs, who were very bad against the run, and did all that split zone and arc frippery.

This is about to be a bunch of complaints about McKeon's decisions but before we get to that let's put it in perspective. I believe that Michigan altered its run game considerably mid-season. The person that has fallen most heavily upon is McKeon. He's the guy trying to execute three different flavors of split zone block, probably without the benefit of doing much of it in fall camp.

Unfortunately that showed in several different ways in this game. There were a number of –2 mental issues that stalled Michigan drives. Michigan's odd choice to run Mason on third and five might have worked, but McKeon has one of those whoops-changing-target mid play 90 degree turns as he goes for a kickout when none is needed:

#84 TE to top

That LB is able to hit Mason unfettered and stand him up. A mere annoyance block from McKeon likely gives Mason a decisive momentum W there and sets up a fourth and one even if it doesn't convert.

A second third and short was stuffed; here McKeon doesn't block a DE lined up inside of him. There's an OLB right outside that guy who will clearly be the QB contain:

#84 TE to bottom

That's a bit frustrating. At least it reinforces how infrequently these kinds of errors are being made this season. I rarely see something that's so "what are you DOING" anymore.

And here McKeon arcs around the backside DE on a play with no read. Patterson isn't even looking this direction:

When he was able to get a hit on the right guy things went fine, mostly. He did have +10 worth of good blocks, and the large majority of his minuses were not gained in the act of blocking but rather the act of not blocking. It is something that needs to get cleaned up—he had a similarly rough day against Michigan State for similar reasons.

Alternatives?

I keep pumping Ben Mason as an option here and he did get a shot at a split zone block. Due to circumstances outside of his control it didn't go well. Onwenu gets shoved back here and he's coming tight to the line, seeking the playside end:

That's a tough ask on an RPS minus and probably what you want to see even if it's not working out on that exact play. The number of times Onwenu gives ground is miniscule. The very next play saw McKeon go for the same kickout; Onwenu and JBB trundled a guy downfield and McKeon airballed the block. This is again a mental issue since he's coming out at an angle that's too far upfield:

But since McKeon's issues are largely about what happens before contact is made (if contact is made) it doesn't seem likely that Mason would be a big improvement on that—he'd just be McKeon a month ago. I do think they should be seeking ways to get him on the field more. I had one graded play for him and that was a carry. Giving him a subset of the wing TE playbook helps spread the load.

Onwenu really gave it to 'em.

This was always going to be a matchup for the two guards, as most of Michigan's runs featured them taking on the pass-rush oriented Penn State DL. Onwenu did what he should do.

Onwenu's reputed mobility issues are overstated, I think. Here he pulls with Bredeson on a pin and pull; he's able to cover a lot of ground, make Gentry's kickout block right, and then extend to the LB level:

RG #50

Bredeson isn't covering more ground and ends up caught on the hip of JBB.

Onwenu, like the rest of the line, is light years ahead of where he was last year when it comes to post-snap decision making. It is extremely doubtful he would have managed to come off this block and get the linebacker last year:

RG #50

That feels like something he's prepped for, and then he's 350* pounds so the LB just bounces right off of him.

Speaking of Onwenu, how's that assertion Michigan's playbook had not yet been plumbed going?

Excellently. Michigan has the pin and pull stuff above, their arc/belly series, regular split zone, and oh hey there's a down G that looks more like a trap play than any of the stretch G stuff they'd been running earlier this year:

RG #50 pulls for the kickout as Ruiz goes direct to LB

They tossed in a couple power plays—still not working great—and then put three tight ends on the field to run inside zone behind a big giant forest of gaps.

Then you start moving guys around and running the same concepts from different formations that muck with the opposition's intended counters to your moves. After getting burned by crashing their DE 3-4 times, PSU had to go back to using him as contain and belly once again became an easy four yards:

PSU DE to bottom

This is a lot to deal with, and it fits together really well. Split zone, arc stuff, and belly look a lot alike. Pin and pull and the trap stuff look a lot alike. Linebackers are confused.

They're so confused Michigan's now getting some chunks off opposition over-plays. Higdon had a 19-yard run and Evans a 34-yard run in the second half on split zone. Unlike almost all of Michigan's split zone to date these went off the frontside. It did so because on both the middle linebacker was so concerned about all the nonsense going on to the backside of Michigan runs that he took a step or two back there and Michigan's second level block was an easy one:

PSU MLB #12

This isn't actually a constraint play, it's just the same play, but one dollar says Harbaugh and Warinner prepped their backs to hit this hole at some point, a la that video of Harbaugh on the sidelines in the VT-Stanford Orange Bowl telling his RB that "the back door is open" right before a cutback run that ripped off 50 yards. (This video has unfortunately disappeared from Vimeo, if anyone knows a place on the internet where it lives now please tell me.)

Penn State had a couple of things they responded with that got them RPS wins, like a couple of third downs where they blitzed a linebacker and ended up with a safety-vs-RB matchup at the LOS. One of these saw Higdon run the guy over to convert; the second did not:

This helped a little but PSU stopped running it, possibly because it was stunt casting that could burn them once downloaded. These jabs did nothing to stop Michigan from landing body blow after body blow.

To get big plays on the ground you need that false step. Otherwise you don't have the angles. Michigan got some false steps early in the year with some frippery—Mason heading backside on down G, that kind of stuff. These false steps are on basic plays, but Michigan's assembled and executed their offense well enough that opponents feel they need to cheat. And once that happens, the chunks start coming.

And there's more in the barn. Patterson's open-field juke came on a play that I think Michigan ran wrong, with Eubanks going to a guy that should be held outside by the jet sweep fake:

Would have preferred that one to stay in the barn, too, but the hamblastings of Wisconsin, MSU, and Penn State probably let Michigan store away some of their surprises. A virtual bye week against Rutgers gives Michigan another opportunity to add to what's hopefully the We Have A Quarterback This Time version of the 2017 game plan.

I liked that gameplan.

I liked it too. I think it's going to happen. All of the above adds up to an offense that now feels very solid tactically. They're even getting some RPS wins in the passing game, which have been a rarity this year. When it came time to put the nail in the coffin, Michigan hauled out a flare screen that was a bucket of yards for free…

…and two plays later an RPO was all she wrote. 21-0.

With limited exceptions this was an excellent gameplan, their third in three games during this critical stretch. Now go run the same thing 70 straight times at Rutgers.

What was the other thing you can do with a football?

Throw?

Right. That. And that went… in some direction.

It went in a generally positive one. Patterson's DSR didn't pop back up to early season levels but his mistakes were generally benign—no interceptable throws—and the sample size here is small enough that moving one bad thing to a good category gets him back to the low 70s:

SHEA PATTERSON

Also he was +6 on the ground.

We didn't get the post-bye Rudock takeoff, in part because Patterson's been playing much better and has less room to take off in. But there were some flashes. That slant to DPJ was slick and confident, with Patterson looking off the MLB and knowing that he's got a conversion the other way:

Yeah buddy. Unfortunately the next opportunity like this was the failed fourth and two, when he did not look anyone off:

He can fit that in there if he's more decisive; he could come off of it and find Higdon; he could note Eubanks's advantageous position relative to the SAM pre-snap. Any of these probably converts.

Every QB is going to have plays like this; Patterson's rate is the only thing holding him back from being a fire-breather. The weird dump to Evans when he could have run or thrown it more productively stands out. So does the play where DPJ got lit up. That was another incident where it seems like Patterson's just a hair slow at seeing the field. DPJ's got a window early that closes by the time Patterson gets to it:

The throw is inch perfect, but late.

Patterson's pocket awareness is getting better as his protection becomes more consistent. He's still leaving clean pockets on occasion. Sometimes this results in TDs to Donovan Peoples-Jones; more often it results in throwaways:

That's a clean-ish pocket in which he can drift right a step or two and find one of his short routes for something. Too often Patterson goes for the full bug-out instead of repostioning. The above notwithstanding, Patterson's doing a much better job of hanging in the pocket for his guys to get open.

He coupled this with a day on which I charted zero inaccurate passes and only one that was filed "marginal" because it was a bad downfield throw—that was a little behind McKeon. And these weren't dinks. Patterson's deep ball was a little bit off early in the game, when it was a little gusty and unpredictable. Nico Collins's deep catch seems like a play where the wind caught it a little, this resulting in the stutter-step that prevented Collins from trying to break a TD-saving tackle:

A bit later DPJ would get open but the throw ended up a hair short:

This is the pattern for almost all of Patterson's deep throws that aren't directly on point. If he misses, it's short and his guy still has a chance to make a play on the ball. DPJ, meanwhile, will learn how to do the Manningham bump-and-extend when faced with a situation like this; gotta box your man out when it's short.

A bit later the wind died down and Patterson hit Black perfectly in stride:

That's just what he does with open receivers downfield. Hopefully he sees them more often—a five yard checkdown to Higdon saw Collins burst wide open down field. Take the shot!

You mentioned he was +6 on the ground? Maybe they spent the bye week trying to turn him into Denard?

This was Patterson's best game on the ground by some distance. The only negative was a QB draw on which he got ambitious and turned 3 yards into a loss. Otherwise he was on point with all his reads and aggressive when on the move.

As late as the Wisconsin game it felt like Michigan's zone read wasn't a read at all and that would hamper Michigan's attempt to be a shotgun offense; Patterson sort of came off like Dwayne Haskins, who… uh…

Somewhere Ben Mason just cried, and he doesn’t know why. pic.twitter.com/Ezhg2VG5PE

— Bryan Mac (@Bry_Mac) November 3, 2018

…well, that.

That is emphatically not the case. In a game where Trace McSorley slid short of a first down for seemingly no reason, Patterson was getting after it.

No sliding here; instead Patterson was able to drive through tackles for some YAC…

…and on one play where a safety presented himself at the LOS he got dusted:

This is now the optimal level of Shea Patterson runs in a competitive game. He had eight purposeful runs, enough to force the defense to play 11 on 11 and also pick up 6.8 yards a pop. That's the right balance. It's opened up Michigan's ground game without exposing him to too many hits, and the stress it puts on defenses should open up some big plays in the important games down the stretch.

Receivers?

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

Routes: DPJ – +.

Not a lot of action for obvious reasons. DPJ got the route plus and minus on the same play: plus for winning over the top easily, minus for not walling the DB off.

Heroes?

Bredeson and Onwenu. Both tackles to a slightly lesser extent. Patterson, mostly.

Maybe not so heroic?

The tight ends didn't have much to do in the passing game and were very up and down as blockers. Not terrible, but a lot of yards got left on the field due to lack of kaiju.

What does it mean for Rutgers and the future?

Jon Runyan Jr: legit good. The lack of passing didn't prevent Michigan from racking up 31 pass pro opportunities, 28 of which were positive. JBB has had some issues against guys like Willekes and is probably a half step behind. Runyan seems legitimately good, full stop.

Fully operational. The emergence of Patterson as a legitimate run threat and increased diversity of the ground game makes this a bear of a run game to deal with. It feels like just a matter of time before opponents miss a fit and then goodbye.

…except for tight end blocking. McKeon very well could improve rapidly over the course of the next couple weeks because he's probably got a bunch of new stuff on his plate every week; let's hope that transpires.

Patterson's inching towards it. Ground game is on point; pocket awareness is much better; reading the field is still a work in progress. If he gets that together there's nothing holding the offense back.

Ed Warinner for president (of Michigan's offensive line and run game and nothing else ever). Probably goes without saying at this point.