Playing Football While Being Notre Dame

Submitted by Ecky Pting on November 7th, 2018 at 6:45 PM

Bill Connelly's Strength of Resume supports the assertion that Michigan has the strongest record thus far of the one-loss teams, with Georgia and Oklahoma right behind. Connelly's Strength of Resume basically evaluates a team's past record by comparing the actual scoring margins in all of its games to that of a hypothetical average top-5 team (i.e. with M at #3, M would be akin to your average top-5 team). So, most of the ratings are negative, since the vast majority of teams are rated well below the top-5 range. That said, M is only one of 3 teams with a positive rating - the other two being who you'd suspect: Alabama and Clemson. Alabama (a.k.a. the Death Star) BTW, is stunningly positive. Some other teams like Fresno State, Utah State and fancy-stats darling UCF also bubble up toward the top. Notre Dame, however, is noticeably absent from the top 10. In fact, the Fig-Things come in at #18, which suggests pretty strongly that their performance is rather underwhelming, against what amounts to weak competition. Yet, the pumped up profiles of the middleweight teams of the ACC that ND has beaten give the FigThings an artificial boost. It's remarkable that just about every rating system and a lot of people in the know (including Joel Klatt), put Michigan ahead of Notre Dame already, yet the CFP has yet to really take strength of resume in into consideration, and is simply giving ND a pass for ... being ND?

Comments

sum1valiant

November 7th, 2018 at 8:24 PM ^

This is a good point. I dont think it's one or the other, but a combination of who deserves it and who's better, particularly when one gets past the power five undefeateds. I think of it as "who are the best teams of the most deserving teams". Its completely subjective, but it's also what fans were clamoring for during the BCS era. I dont want fancy stats to determine who gets a shot, particularly when the average fan consensus is that "Team X that fancy stats loves will get their doors blown off by any of these other teams". 

andrewG

November 7th, 2018 at 8:55 PM ^

It's a fundamentally essential to the game of football that results matter. Otherwise you're playing an entirely different game where the goal is to compile the best statistical profile, not necessarily win the game. In that case, mind as well reward the win to the team who gains the most yards, not scores the most points.

Squash34

November 8th, 2018 at 2:10 AM ^

I would argue what us fundamentally essentiall to not act like a win over someone in week one means they are better,or more deserving of he playoffs, after 12 more games. 

In other words, it's not about being better in week one. It's about who is peeking at the end of the year. And Michigan is playing much better than ND right now, which is exactly what all the advanced stats show. 

 

andrewG

November 8th, 2018 at 3:33 PM ^

"I would argue what us fundamentally essentiall to not act like a win over someone in week one means they are better,or more deserving of he playoffs, after 12 more games."

Fundamentally essential as a person? Absolutely. Essential to football? Absolutely not.

Carcajou

November 8th, 2018 at 7:34 AM ^

"But the whole point of playing football is to settle it on the field. You reward the victor. "

That's exactly the reason that people complained about the mythical national championships, and that conferences moved to a nine game conference schedule - "to settle it on the field".

While that may or not be the best way to look at it, it would be ironic (if not hypocritical) to say that regular seasons don't matter as much as other things, such as metrics or "the eye test".

wildbackdunesman

November 7th, 2018 at 7:23 PM ^

Seems like we want Syracuse to win.

#1 Notre Dame is already ahead of us so I don't see how it hurts our positioning.

#2 We have a real argument to leap frog them if we each have 1 loss.  Their head to head was at home in week 1.  Michigan looks like it has improved significantly over the course of the season - Notre Dame not as much.

#3 More objective computer polls all have us already rated higher.  People kind of know we are playing better than them right now.

TrueBlue2003

November 7th, 2018 at 11:54 PM ^

Why the F would we root for Alabama before the SEC title game?  If they lose one before the title game (to Miss St or Auburn), any chance of two SEC teams making it over a 12-1 Michigan team is eliminated.  11-1 Bama and 11-1 (at best) UGA would play an elimination game.

We root hard for Miss St and hard for Auburn against Alabama.

ONLY if Bama makes it to the title game 12-0 (likely, but still, we're talking about rooting interests here) do we want them to beat UGA.

 

Ecky Pting

November 7th, 2018 at 8:43 PM ^

If M and ND both have one loss, what is to be compared is the quality of the losses and not the head-to-head. The quality of M's loss would supersede a loss by ND to any team that remains on their schedule. Furthermore, M would have the same number of wins as ND (and of greater quality as established by the OP), and would otherwise be getting adversely penalized for the risk of playing one more game.

SFBlue

November 7th, 2018 at 7:00 PM ^

I don't know about that. Notre Dame seems like a clear cut #3 at this point in the season. Think about this. Does anyone else have a better win than Notre Dame? The answer is "no." Bama beat LSU, but Michigan >>> LSU. 

stephenrjking

November 7th, 2018 at 7:28 PM ^

There was a basketball player wearing a Michigan hat today after practice. Still a couple of years to go before he can sign his LOI, but it's a promising sign.

Of course he's currently 5'6 and he's a role-player for a jr. high team in a school of less than 300 students, so it might not get the staff's attention right away.

B-Nut-GoBlue

November 7th, 2018 at 7:02 PM ^

If we beat ND and people were debating putting ND ahead of us at this time of year or in the coming weeks of a different hypothetical season where ND's SOS was very good...we'd be throwing a fit and OF COURSE clutching to "But we beat them head-to-head WTF!".

J.

November 8th, 2018 at 4:36 AM ^

Surely you can see the difference between a 7-point win with a sub-50% postgame win expectancy and a 39-point win that included a sad field goal.

There was nobody outside of the state of Pennsylvania who believed that 2016 PSU was better than OSU or Michigan, despite beating OSU.

UMxWolverines

November 7th, 2018 at 10:08 PM ^

Why? Because it's Notre Dame? Going undefeated is hard to do. If they do they've earned it. One of these years it's gonna screw them in the ass though when they lose late and are left out like in 1993 when they beat Florida State but lost to Boston College. Still that potential this year I suppose. 

rice4114

November 7th, 2018 at 7:23 PM ^

Head to head and undefeated is hard to overcome. We are barely ahead of a team that got blown out to a non- BAMA team. Also Georgia is basically in the Big ten west. 

The Fan in Fargo

November 7th, 2018 at 7:30 PM ^

First things first my man. Michigan is the fully operational death star with their defense. This offense has yet to open it up. Yet, you insist that Bama is the death star. Well here's what this Michigan defense will do to those little skill players and Tua when they meet. Michigan is now Star Killler.star killer.gif

footballguy

November 7th, 2018 at 7:31 PM ^

Can we legitimately say we are better than ND right now? I don't really like this line of thinking. 

We lost to ND, and ND looked more impressive against Northwestern than we did. It's easy to point to us destroying some teams, but what have those teams proven? I don't think Wisconsin and Penn State are good, and MSU is pretty average. 

If ND goes undefeated, they have every right to be over a 13-1 Michigan. Especially since the B1G title game will be against NW. We have to cheer for ND to lose.

footballguy

November 7th, 2018 at 7:31 PM ^

Can we legitimately say we are better than ND right now? I don't really like this line of thinking. 

We lost to ND, and ND looked more impressive against Northwestern than we did. It's easy to point to us destroying some teams, but what have those teams proven? I don't think Wisconsin and Penn State are good, and MSU is pretty average. 

If ND goes undefeated, they have every right to be over a 12-1 Michigan. Especially since the B1G title game will be against NW. We have to cheer for ND to lose.

Teekahty

November 7th, 2018 at 7:40 PM ^

This seems very much like something you would find on other boards. 

We lost to them. Period. 

No matter what ridiculous pretty math explains that away ,we still “ hold this L” if  everything was reversed and talking heads were screaming about how they should be above Michigan, this place would explode.