Line v PSU jumped to UM by 12; news?
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
McSorley is going to play, but he's not healthy. But we've known that all week, so who knows. Probably just some last minute Michigan fans.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
Last minute Michigan fans would not make the line jump like that unless it was Stephen M Ross placing the bet.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
A 2 pt line swing in that time frame would take a Ross like "donation"
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
Ross-like.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
Compound adjectives FTW
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^
*Ross-Like
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
What can I say, Mr. Ross knows soft lines when he sees them.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:00 PM ^
Maybe it was “Field Goal Franklin”.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:18 PM ^
Probably Mayweather.
November 2nd, 2018 at 3:52 PM ^
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad maybe.
Doubling down with some of the pallet of cash he received a few years back.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
The great majority of people who bet on sports games are not fans of the two teams involved. Homerism has little to do with the spread.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:41 PM ^
I actually like to bet on UM opponents. If UM loses, at least I win some money. If they win, but the opponent covers, double awesome! If UM blows them out, f@ck the money we just kicked PSU's ass!
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
I don't "like" to bet on opponents, but I've made a few emotional hedge bets in my time. It takes some potential sting off a painful game.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
I also do pretty much the same except only on the ML. PSU is +340. I also like to bet on OSU if they start losing and a live ML bet is even or plus money, then if they lose, great, if they come back I win cash.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^
I like your logic.Especially the last option.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
You must be a mess when we lose but cover.
November 2nd, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
I don't bet on games that we aren't favored for that very reason.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
PSU practice has been surprisingly leaky -- their 247 site posted some really detailed notes yesterday, including a reveal of a secret defensive package for Micah Parsons. I was shocked that Franklin would allow it.
Anyway I would bet McSorley has looked gimpy and/or other contributors have been sitting out, and the news has made its way to Vegas.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
What would a secret defensive package with Parsons even entail?
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
Not playing him wildly out of position. It's ground breaking stuff from Franklin.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
Clearly a 5th down package type play
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
Micah Parsons, Fifth Down Free Safety. Come to Penn State.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:34 PM ^
It's a play where they send out the secret package, then right before the snap Parsons calls a timeout... twice.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
Not much of a gambler but isnt this something that happens sometimes close to games when a lot of money came in for 1 team?
Like Vegas is trying to bring in some last minute money on PSU.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
Lines can move around, but +/- 2 pts is not common unless inside knowledge is gained or a HUGE bet placed.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
Sharps move lines. The public will take the points at a 65% clip or better in this game. Line opened at -11.5 so this isn’t huge movement but some sharps probably felt it wouldn’t drop below-10.5 so they fired.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
Also sharps seem to like Nebraska this weekend. That’s the bet it looks like. They however lose too.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
Sharps aren't very sharp if they are taking Nebraska +18 AT OSU.
They're going to need more than that.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^
It opened at -21, got bet down to -17.5. Take that fwiw
November 2nd, 2018 at 5:13 PM ^
Dennisblundon is correct about there being sharp action on Nebraska early in the week. and someone that has listened to numerous sports gambling podcasts during work, I can tell you Nebraska has been a very Sharp bet team in recent weeks but it hasn't worked out for the sharps for the most part.
November 2nd, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^
This, in my opinion, is likely the reason why the line has jumped.
Put it like this: At -10.5 Michigan had ~70% of the money on them and rising. With all of that cash on Michigan if the line ends at -10.5 and PSU covers Vegas banks big. If the betting trend continued toward Michigan at that number (it was) and the line had stayed at -10.5 that's basically Vegas saying, go ahead. Keep betting Michigan. We're confident in a PSU cover - confident enough that even big bets (to a degree) on Michigan won't sway the line.
After looking at how the number has moved around this week, to me, it's a sign that Vegas - as OP said - is trying to get some money in on Penn State to hedge all of the Michigan money at -10.5. Which is a good sign for Michigan fans and Michigan bettors at -10.5. However, there's still plenty of time left to place bets and most bets come in late. If that line comes back down tomorrow it could mean Vegas is confident in a PSU cover - they're just baiting Michigan bettors with the inflated line tonight ("oh shoot! I should've gotten in on Michigan when it was -10.5! I'll bet this if it comes back down..."). Notice how it got us talking.
IIRC PSU was getting all of the action when the line opened at +10. That obviously changed... It doesn't sound like anyone has heard any "news;" my best guess is the word really starting to spread about the "Revenge Tour" factor - Meaning, Harbaugh and Co. aren't going to show any mercy in a double digit victory.
I only play for fun in a league with my friends, but the "Revenge Tour" factor is what swayed me to take Michigan at -10.5.
November 2nd, 2018 at 11:07 PM ^
I really like what Coin says here...If this is a game like Wisconsin, where UM takes a knee in the red zone because honor, it is a normal game. The line here is accounting for the 15% chance that UM is leading by a td with 1:45 left and JH wants to use his remaining TOs to make a statement.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
Probably because of McSorley practicing in a knee brace all week and he could be limited in terms of mobility?
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
12.5 now. For non gamblers it may not mean much, but this is pretty significant. The only logical reason is Mcsorley is not playing right now, but who knows.
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^
McSorley playing, but not posing a threat with his legs, might be worse for PSU than playing his backup.
November 2nd, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^
Was thinking the same. I'll bet we see Tommy Stevens play a decent amount tomorrow.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
probably Vegas trying to even out the money distribution. Vegas isn’t predicting a Michigan win. They are attempting to spread the money 50/50 between Michigan and PSU
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
We all get that. But the point is why was there such a flood of bets on Michigan covering.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
Situations like this is when you really see the vast chasm between gamblers and non gamblers. It's like everyone in this thread is either speaking spanish or english.
November 2nd, 2018 at 9:23 PM ^
¿Que?
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
There may not have been a flood of bets on Michigan.
Vegas maybe be enticing PSU bets to even the money.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^
This is not a logically sound statement
November 2nd, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^
When the Vegas line moves, it moves based on PRIOR bets, not where the house wants FUTURE bets to go. If it worked the way you think it does, the house would in effect be gambling. The house doesn't gamble. The house plays it safe and always wins. That's (one reason) why I don't bet.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
Moneyflow and The Limit Lift could explain this.
The topic of the Michigan line came up on the board earlier this week and the general commentary was similar: the 10 pt line seemed high but was necessary to keep the book balanced. Yes, this is day 1 of Sports Wagering 101. However, books also control bet limits and early in the week the limits are way lower than they are later in the week in order to manage risk while the market is resolves.
The book not only sees where the money goes but also where it comes from. This is probably a situation where there was a clear sharp-square split in the action early in the week. Bet limits go up, big money comes in (on Michigan in this case) and new PSU money comes in to meet it. The risk skew ultimately evens out but only because there was a lot of square money on one side to begin with.
This may be a case where the line was kept off of the final balance point in order to trap an imbalance in square PSU money before the limits were increased.
The book definitely knows how to recognize and exploit advantageous situations, believe that.
November 2nd, 2018 at 7:57 PM ^
Sounds legit.
I have no idea what you just said.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
Someone always provides this comment in these threads. "Vegas" doesn't mean a group of guys on the strip for a bachelor party for the weekend or some schmucks in town for a conference. This is serious money, and these lines are based on way more information than anyone here might have. Vegas has to beat the people who do this for a living.
Ever play in one of those ESPN pick'em games with friends, family, coworkers, etc? Want to win it every year? Pick the Vegas favorites, and use the lines to determine your confidence rankings. Congratulations, you are now the winner.
Yes, Vegas is trying to get even money, but they do that by being very, very good at setting these lines.
November 2nd, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
They don't necessarily try to get even money every time. Everyone was shocked when they made Sparty a slight favorite over Purdue last week. I'd be surprised if half the money was on Sparty covering that.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
Sparty was the home team, had gone to PSU and come out with a win, and has a very good defense.
Purdue destroyed OSU, but one game does not a season make. Purdue was obviously due for an emotional letdown the week after the biggest upset in all those players’ lives. People who are able to look past the most recent results and see the big picture were only too happy to bet on Sparty.
November 2nd, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^
One game does not a season make?
Hmmm...
Ask a Michigan fan about The Game over the past 15 years.
Ask a Sparty about the Michigan game over the past 10 years.