Michigan opens -11.5 over Penn State
October 28th, 2018 at 4:45 PM ^
woah...I was wrong on that one
October 28th, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^
Respect
October 28th, 2018 at 5:49 PM ^
Bingo! I said -11 ... and I think we will actually win by much more. This is the Don Brown revenge game.
October 28th, 2018 at 6:56 PM ^
I'm thinking 1997 wash, rinse, repeat.
October 28th, 2018 at 8:52 PM ^
Something like 56-7
October 28th, 2018 at 4:48 PM ^
Wow......I only missed that by 7 points
October 28th, 2018 at 8:15 PM ^
Attaboy! You picked UM by 18.5. I feel a lot more confident now.
October 28th, 2018 at 4:49 PM ^
I realize that James Franklin is their coach, but that seems .... high. Hope it's not too irrationally exuberant.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:06 PM ^
This is the response every single week and the line always ends up being too low.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:34 PM ^
You're worried that the Las Vegas gambling industry is "too irrationally exuberant" about Michigan? That's really not how it works.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:24 PM ^
No, how it works is it reflects the irrational exuberance of Michigan fans, who are unlikely to bet against the spread.
October 28th, 2018 at 8:54 PM ^
This same discussion occurs week after week. Even though all the evidence suggests that most bettors on a typical game are not fans of the teams in play, people here insist that "Michigan fans drive the line" every time.
October 29th, 2018 at 1:43 AM ^
Yes, thank you
October 28th, 2018 at 9:19 PM ^
James Franklin is their head coach is -7. The spread should be -18.5.
October 28th, 2018 at 10:03 PM ^
Dude can multi-task. He sold a 2016 Corolla and a 2015 Mustang during the game yesterday.
October 28th, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^
Seems high
October 28th, 2018 at 7:04 PM ^
It seems high, yes. Probably based off of the D's performance against two fairly weak offenses. I say Wisco is weak because they are not good passing the ball.
They make these spreads so that money will go both sides of the game. If it opened at 7 it would go up to 10 quick with all the money going Michigans way.
This time of year I dont care honestly, win by 1. Just win.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:09 PM ^
Still a surprise to see it over 10. S&P+ probably has this as an 8.5 point line -- though we won't know for sure until tomorrow. Anything between 7.5 and 9.5 wouldn't have surprised me. Would figure over 10 would lead to PSU money coming in and 7 or under would get heavy UM betting.
October 28th, 2018 at 9:01 PM ^
Probably based off of the D's performance against two fairly weak offenses.
That may be part of it, but we're also just steamrolling teams at home this year.
October 28th, 2018 at 4:53 PM ^
They are going to have a hard time moving the ball, just like everyone else and they just played a very physical game. I expect them to come in a bit dinged. And who knows about McSorely's knee. Once you get thru the game it could be one of those things that swells a bit and keeps him a notch or two below his normal speed. They are a good team but not a great team. And their coaching... I think the line is right to get even action on both sides.
I just hope we can continue with that salty physical football after the bye and come out and grind just like they have the last few weeks. If we can do that we will be fine.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:37 PM ^
Could Vegas know more about McSorely's knee than what the public knows?
October 28th, 2018 at 5:56 PM ^
They watched him throw after the injury. He already has a minus arm and then take away a leg and he can’t drive the ball like normal. It was very obvious he wasn’t comfortable throwing.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:55 PM ^
Oddly, his running seemed fine especially on his long TD scamper.
October 28th, 2018 at 8:37 PM ^
Never had to cut or anything. Not hard to run straight line. I’m not sold he’s fine.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:08 PM ^
I think Penn St gave it’s best yesterday, and that best is not good enough to beat Michigan. Iowa should have won if not for a bugled play and interception when they were about to go ahead.
Penn st will fall out of the top 20 after they lose badly to Michigan.
October 29th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
Michigan has to show up and kick ass, too. No f*** ups, especially on offense. They need to come out, move the ball well, and score early and often with a balanced attack. After they've got a two scores or greater lead they can start pounding the ball on the ground and throttle the life out of Penn State.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:08 PM ^
I think Penn St gave it’s best yesterday, and that best is not good enough to beat Michigan. Iowa should have won if not for a bugled play and interception when they were about to go ahead.
Penn st will fall out of the top 20 after they lose badly to Michigan.
October 28th, 2018 at 4:54 PM ^
Don Brown wakes every morning thinking about this game. That's what's up.
October 28th, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^
Yea, I can't imagine Harbaugh or the team were thrilled with last year's performance.
I bet Jim can't wait to tack on an extra score late in the ball game to make it 42-6.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:12 PM ^
Franklin & his assistant were giggling their asses off at the end of last years game while they were talking about doing that exact thing to Harbaugh. I don't think they will be laughing this year.
October 28th, 2018 at 4:56 PM ^
I was thinking around 7 but really can't argue with this...we're a significantly better team
October 28th, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^
PSU has a weak defense. Iowa missed several opportunities to win the game and Iowa isn't as good as their record. Michigan's offense is more efficient (edit- than PSU’s offense) although less flashy or at least less high scoring against opponents with less talent. I wish I was more bold on the prediction. It is just that karma thing. I don't want to get too excited.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:17 PM ^
Iowa's offense is significantly below average. I'm not predicting it, but us scoring in the high 40s/low 50s wouldn't shock me. A lot goes into that, not the least of which is the bad blood they sewed last year by trying to run it up on us.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:45 PM ^
Over/under is 68.8 so someone thinks Michigan is going to put up some numbers.
[Edit] Per OddsShark, not sure about reliability. It does seem high but I found it interesting.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:52 PM ^
No way. How many games has Don brown been coaching that the over has hit 70 here?
Rutger doesnt count.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:57 PM ^
Where do you see that O/U?
I think we will win comfortably, but I don't think the total will approach 70. I'd be surprised if it got to 60 to be honest.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:23 PM ^
There is no way Penn St is going to get 28 on Don Brown this year.
October 28th, 2018 at 6:08 PM ^
Sowed
October 28th, 2018 at 6:12 PM ^
you right you right
October 28th, 2018 at 8:09 PM ^
This is where you edit your first comment and respond with a hearty WUT?
October 28th, 2018 at 9:19 PM ^
I'd rather die a thousand deaths by homophone than live once as an internet coward.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:25 PM ^
Per S&P+, PSU's offense and defense are about equally meh. They're slightly ahead of us on O, but way behind with D, obviously. They're still top 10, and if I read S&P correctly, we're about 6 points better on a neutral field. I think we win by 2 scores with home field advantage and Franklin dumbassery, but I think the line is slightly aggressive.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:32 PM ^
The key unit vs. unit matchup in this one is our run offense vs. their run defense. As of last week (they're down now, getting updated) our rushing offense was 12th in S&P and their rushing defense was in the 50s. It's a huge mismatch.
From a raw stats perspective, they're 9th in the Big Ten in rush yards allowed per game (about 161/game).
We should be able to lean on them, keep McSorley off the field, and Don Brown will smother him with fresh legs when he's out there. Not the mismatch you want going on the road in the Big Ten in November.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:58 PM ^
^ What he said.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:28 PM ^
12th vs 50th, that is suffocating domination. And I think that is what Don Brown has been brewing on for a year.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:51 PM ^
Nobody discounts our opponents results like MGOBLOG. Penn state is a couple bad decisions away from undefeated and ahead of us. Vegas says we are 2 scores better and that seems right but PSU is decent.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:56 PM ^
They're also only 3 or 4 plays from being 3-5. That goes both ways. Don't show your ass too much, son.
October 28th, 2018 at 5:56 PM ^
They're also a few bad plays away from 3 more losses.
October 28th, 2018 at 7:33 PM ^
I saw them play yesterday. They did not look better than Michigan, especially the defensive line. They could not stop Iowa when it matter. That is what Penn St is, they aren’t stout when it matters. They were fortunate Iowa stopped themselves.