Let's Play...Guess the Line! UM-PSU

Submitted by FauxMo on October 28th, 2018 at 10:58 AM

I am going to guess the line opens UM -5.5. What say YOU? 



October 28th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^

UM -10 to -13.  You guys are way, way too low.  UM ranked #5.  UM with the best D in the country.  UM had a bye week to heal and prepare.  PSU has not looked great against anyone all season.  This is perfect setup for UM to crush PSU, and Vegas knows it.


My prediction for the final score: Michigan 38, PSU 17.  McSorley will get knocked out of the game.  Book it.

Mike Damone

October 28th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^

M - 8.  Think it will definitely be above a touchdown.

Iowa missed all kinds of chances to win that game yesterday, their QB looked like "recent Lewerke".  Whole thing was a relative trainwreck on both sides.  Can't see any bettors putting money on Penn State unless they have at least +7.5...


October 28th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^


Fancy stats -7.5 + -3.0 home field advantage = -10.5 at open ... going to -13.5 if McSorley's sprained knee is limiting and that gets public.


October 28th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^

Penn State has a couple home-run threats and a senior QB.  McSorley is also mobile, which helps a team keep ahead of the chains.  But their OL is average and their outside WRs are nothing special.  Plus they are getting Michigan off a bye, and it's a team that RPS'd Don Brown last season.  Have to think they struggle on offense but break through a few times with the weapons they have.  Let's say ~ 17 points.

On defense, their front is a tad below MSU's but they have a better secondary.  M was able to run the ball against their last two opponents, but lots of yards came on zone read pulls that opposing defenses weren't prepared for.  Have to expect Penn State to be ready for those.  But M has had two weeks to prep for this game, and will undoubtedly have counters ready for whatever adjustments Penn State makes.  Plus M is adding Tarik Black, and Evans should be back to full strength or close to it.  So, I like M for about ~ five scores, let's say three TDs and two FGs.

So that gives us a score of about 27-17, and then we have to look at special teams.  M has been good at punting but shaky in the placekicking game, whereas Penn State's kicker was money yesterday.  M has Amby and DPJ, but PSU has Hamler, so that's a wash.  I'll give PSU a few points for having the edge on ST, so adjust that to 27-20.    

The game is in the Big House so I'll give M a few more points for that.  So M 30, PSU 20.  That score feels a a little high but I'll stick with it.  Michigan -10



October 28th, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^

The line for this game will be 9.5

they will see the game as the classic 6.5 for betting,plus they have to add the 3 for home field

Michigan will cover  31-17