October 28th, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^
M -7.5
October 28th, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
Michigan -6.5. It should be over 2 scores but will be lower to attract Michigan money. Line will be up to -9.5 by game day.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^
Why would the line be lower to attract Michigan money?
Taking in a lot of Michigan money at -6.5 and a lot of Penn State money at +9.5 sounds like a sub-optimal strategy.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
Up 21-7 at the half.
34-10 final.
these are the lines that matter
October 28th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
I think it opens at Michigan -7.5. I also think Michigan wins by 17.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
Michigan -8
October 28th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
5.5 feels about right. I thnk we are favored on a neutral field, but not by more than a FG.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
Seriously? Have you been watching Michigan play defense?
October 28th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
Offense
PSU 459
Mich 420
Defense
PSU 387
Mich 220
October 28th, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
It will be double digits.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
The final score will be for sure. The opening line won't be.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
We shall see. If it’s under 10 bet the house.
October 28th, 2018 at 4:49 PM ^
Opens at 11.5
October 28th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^
I will be shocked if the line is less than double digits.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
Love this idea as a recurring Sunday thread. M -7.5, IMO
October 28th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
I agree with Michigan -6.5 that grows to about -8.5 as the week goes on.
How about overs? I'll start with 48.5
October 28th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
Is that just Michigan’s point total? This is the Revenge Tour, I’d remind you.
October 28th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^
UM -7
October 28th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
UM -10 to -13. You guys are way, way too low. UM ranked #5. UM with the best D in the country. UM had a bye week to heal and prepare. PSU has not looked great against anyone all season. This is perfect setup for UM to crush PSU, and Vegas knows it.
My prediction for the final score: Michigan 38, PSU 17. McSorley will get knocked out of the game. Book it.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^
I think it will be Michigam -7 or so...but I do not think the game will be that close.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
I'll say between 6-8 points
October 28th, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^
-13.5 We have been covering the last several weeks.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
M - 8. Think it will definitely be above a touchdown.
Iowa missed all kinds of chances to win that game yesterday, their QB looked like "recent Lewerke". Whole thing was a relative trainwreck on both sides. Can't see any bettors putting money on Penn State unless they have at least +7.5...
October 28th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
To be fair, psu didn’t really play a clean game either. 2 drew safeties, pick six, fumbles.
October 28th, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^
Agreed. Even more reason for the line to favor us.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
Do we win stuff in this thread??
October 28th, 2018 at 12:59 PM ^
Street cred
October 28th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
The perfect response from a guy with this screen name.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
Fancy stats -7.5 + -3.0 home field advantage = -10.5 at open ... going to -13.5 if McSorley's sprained knee is limiting and that gets public.
October 28th, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^
He did not look limited on the TD run.
OTOH he did not have to make a hard cut.
Anyone recall him making a run with a hard cut after the injury?
October 28th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
UM -9.5
October 28th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
Penn State has a couple home-run threats and a senior QB. McSorley is also mobile, which helps a team keep ahead of the chains. But their OL is average and their outside WRs are nothing special. Plus they are getting Michigan off a bye, and it's a team that RPS'd Don Brown last season. Have to think they struggle on offense but break through a few times with the weapons they have. Let's say ~ 17 points.
On defense, their front is a tad below MSU's but they have a better secondary. M was able to run the ball against their last two opponents, but lots of yards came on zone read pulls that opposing defenses weren't prepared for. Have to expect Penn State to be ready for those. But M has had two weeks to prep for this game, and will undoubtedly have counters ready for whatever adjustments Penn State makes. Plus M is adding Tarik Black, and Evans should be back to full strength or close to it. So, I like M for about ~ five scores, let's say three TDs and two FGs.
So that gives us a score of about 27-17, and then we have to look at special teams. M has been good at punting but shaky in the placekicking game, whereas Penn State's kicker was money yesterday. M has Amby and DPJ, but PSU has Hamler, so that's a wash. I'll give PSU a few points for having the edge on ST, so adjust that to 27-20.
The game is in the Big House so I'll give M a few more points for that. So M 30, PSU 20. That score feels a a little high but I'll stick with it. Michigan -10
October 28th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
PSU defense line is no where near MSU level, everything else seems about right.
October 28th, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^
Penn State "OL is average."
To me this is the position group match up of the game. If the M d-line can really dominate the PSU o-line, this will be an easy win for M.
So, how 'average' is the PSU o-line?
October 28th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
UM -7.5
October 28th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^
Michigan -8.5 and I think we more than double that in the final score.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
-7.5, rising to -8.5 at game time.
October 28th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
M -6.5
October 28th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
Michigan minus it doesn't matter!!
October 28th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
UM -4.5
October 28th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
-5.5 is a good guess.
I'm going with -6
October 28th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
I have been thinking -10.5 all week. Sticking with that as the opening line.
October 28th, 2018 at 2:19 PM ^
The Sagarin RATING method results in 91.97 - 88.37 + 2.43 ~= 6 pt favorite which feels a little low to me.
October 28th, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^
Franklin runs up the score against weaker opponents. Even advanced stats cannot completely factor out coaches that scheme to score at the end of close games. It appears to me that Franklin chooses to score when others would choose to run the clock.
October 28th, 2018 at 2:22 PM ^
The line for this game will be 9.5
they will see the game as the classic 6.5 for betting,plus they have to add the 3 for home field
Michigan will cover 31-17
October 28th, 2018 at 3:48 PM ^
UM -7
It is funny how the pointy ball bounces but a fast start by Michigan would make my day.