Let's Play...Guess the Line! UM-PSU

Submitted by FauxMo on October 28th, 2018 at 10:58 AM

I am going to guess the line opens UM -5.5. What say YOU? 

WolvinLA2

October 28th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^

I think this is pretty close, but if I had to go one way or another, I'd say it -7 or more.  We are definitely the better team and it's at home.  We were a full TD fave @ MSU and Vegas loves home teams.

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rockydude

October 28th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^

I agree that the opening line is 6.5. I also think we clear the line. I won't be surprised if the game comes up short of the over/under, which I expect to predict a high scoring game, whereas I see it more as an ugly, low scoring affair. 

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Mgoczar

October 28th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^

Do you still stand by your comments that PSU isn't a good team? You said the same about MSU but they have beaten PSU, and Purdue (and I suspect OSU possibly)

I think you also said B Kelley will be fired , but ND is on a roll. 

Just wanting to see what you thought of PSU. 

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DrMantisToboggan

October 28th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^

I said that I could see Kelly being fired if they went 8-4, which was my prediction. I underestimated them, and didn't realize how rough of years FSU, USC, and VT would have. So that's that. I had ND losing to us and those 3 teams - they've obviously won 2 of those 4 already and will be heavy favorites in the other two.

MSU is not a good team, BTW. Beating other not good teams doesn't make them good. They have a bad secondary and a horrible offense, and half their team is in the hospital. It's a very MSU MSU team, in that I can see them beating OSU and I can see them losing to Nebraska and Maryland too.

As for Penn State, yeah, I mean it obviously depends on your definition of "good", but I don't think they are a top 25 team. Their defense, specifically their run defense, is in the bottom half of the Big Ten. Their OL is average. McSorley is a baller, but he's less dangerous without Barkley and Gesicki. My prediction for PSU this year was 8-4 - that's pretty much on track.

We should win this game very comfortably because we should be able to run at will. I like us by over 20.

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Eng1980

October 28th, 2018 at 2:54 PM ^

Dear Mr. Toboggan,  I agree.  I thought it was possible for PSU to lose as many as 5 games this year but Pitt turned the ball over and Indiana continues to come up short in game after game in spite having some admirable tools.  Franklin continues to push for late points to impress the uninformed.

If McSorley cannot move laterally this Saturday, then PSU may be shutout. 

Defining the mark of a good team is slippery.  If you are expecting an invitation to the CFP then an 8-4 team ranked 16 is not very good but that is good for many teams.

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bostonsix

October 28th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^

Seems high only saying this because that's what we said about Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Michigan State. Here's to hoping for a similar result.

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FauxMo

October 28th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^

Actually, I think it opened at MSU -2.5, slipped to MSU -1, and then went to pick 'em once it was announced Lewerke was out. But non of those lines were Vegas being "right," not with MSU winning by 10. If it had been MSU -8, -9, -10, -11, -12, sure, then Vegas would have been "right." 

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BornInAA

October 28th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^

Penal State is not very good. They barely won again at home and only because the Iowa QB kept throwing passes into the ground. Seriously, that QB looked like he took too much cold medicine before the game.

We will beat them by a margin like the MSU game. The line will be over 10.

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NittanyFan

October 28th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^

I'm just guessing the point spread.  U-M is about a touchdown better in many of the advanced analytics.  Then add a few points for home field, and a point or two more for intangibles (U-M has more momentum of late, need to look good for the CFP race, revenge from 2017).

All that said (trying to play the role of the objective gambler here): I do think PSU is the play (definitely if they are a double-digit underdog, and worth a flyer on the money-line) next week.  I'll post my rationale as we get closer.

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